1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High inventory pressure on pulp ports persists, with limited improvement in downstream demand. Paper mills mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand, and the operating rate remains low. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4960 - 5220 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the market prices of spot pulp decreased slightly. In Shandong, the prices of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.84%, -0.83%, and -0.80% respectively. The prices of broadleaf pulp like Goldfish, Birdie, and Alpine decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with declines of -0.49% - -0.74%. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non-wood pulp remained stable [9][13]. - **Pulp Futures Market Review**: Last week, the pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated within a 120-point range, closing at 5068 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.55%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.525 million lots, a decrease of 912,000 lots from the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 325,000 lots, an increase of 27,500 lots [14]. - **Pulp Futures-Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the larger decline in the spot price of coniferous wood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount continued to shrink. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 832 yuan/ton, a reduction of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week [18]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 oscillated in a range, closing at 795.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (+0.51%) from the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 102,000 lots, a decrease of 34,600 lots, and the weighted open interest was 27,600 lots, a decrease of 8,700 lots [20]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, pulp production was 474,000 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons (-1.82%) from the previous week. Among them, broadleaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was 201,000 tons. It is expected that this week's domestic broadleaf pulp production will be about 206,000 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production will be about 200,000 tons [4][22]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broadleaf pulp was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week, and that of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 84.3%, a decrease of 0.8% [27]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (-3.36%) from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (-7.69%), and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (-2.69%) [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemimechanical Pulp and Broadleaf Pulp**: In June 2025, domestic chemimechanical pulp production was 855,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons (-2.4%), with a capacity utilization rate of 85.0%, an increase of 0.8%. Broadleaf pulp production was 891,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons (-4.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% [32]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Broadleaf Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp**: In June 2025, the production profit of broadleaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (-25.31%) from the previous month and a decrease of 1,503.03 yuan/ton (-75.28%) from the same period last year. The production profit of chemimechanical pulp was -376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction of losses by 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, pulp imports were 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (4.26%) from the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (6.95%) from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imports were 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (2.1%) from the same period last year [38]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 281,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (0.36%) from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, an increase of 0.1% [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (1.32%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 0.6%. Offset paper production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.49%), and the capacity utilization rate was 57.0%, a decrease of 0.2% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard was 313,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (3.3%), and the capacity utilization rate was 76.34%, an increase of 2.44%. The production of white board paper was 194,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (-0.51%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.79%, a decrease of 0.36%. The production of corrugated paper was 472,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons (-1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.36%, an increase of 0.01%. The production of boxboard paper was 613,500 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons (1.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 67.75%, an increase of 1.49% [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp large - roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.84%), while the prices of Sichuan bamboo pulp and Guangxi sugarcane pulp large - roll base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the price of double - copper paper remained stable. The prices of white board paper and white cardboard remained stable, while the price of corrugated paper decreased slightly, and the price of boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, tissue paper production was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (-2.37%) from the previous month and an increase of 101,000 tons (9.25%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.5% from the same period last year. White cardboard production was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (0.78%) from the previous month and a decrease of 42,000 tons (-3.15%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% from the previous month and a decrease of 4.8% from the same period last year. Offset paper production was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (-3.04%) from the previous month and a decrease of 38,000 tons (-4.22%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month and a decrease of 7.23% from the same period last year. Copperplate paper production was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (-2.97%) from the previous month and a decrease of 50,000 tons (-13.26%) from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous month and a decrease of 6.85% from the same period last year. The actual domestic pulp consumption in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (-1.6%) from the previous month and an increase of 4,000 tons (0.13%) from the same period last year [59][64][67]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp in China shows a trend of inventory accumulation. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.213 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons (2.31%) from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.378 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.92%), the inventory of Changshu Port is 598,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons (9.52%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 62,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (-3.39%) [68][70]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, pulp futures warehouse receipts were 242,800 tons, a decrease of 5,996 tons (-2.41%) from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 221,900 tons, a decrease of 5,699 tons (-2.5%) [72].

Core Points - Forest Packaging (stock code: 605500) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 11.70% and a transaction volume of 465 million yuan, showing a price fluctuation of 13.94% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 10.02%, with a total net sell of 29.18 million yuan from brokerage seats [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction volume of 136 million yuan, with a buying amount of 53.26 million yuan and a selling amount of 82.45 million yuan, resulting in a net sell of 29.18 million yuan [2] Trading Data - The largest buying brokerage was China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Shaoxing Securities Branch, with a buying amount of 11.98 million yuan, while the largest selling brokerage was Founder Securities Co., Ltd. Taizhou Jiefang Road Securities Branch, with a selling amount of 31.41 million yuan [2] - In terms of capital flow, the stock saw a net inflow of 10.59 million yuan today, with a significant single net inflow of 36.56 million yuan, while large single funds experienced a net outflow of 25.97 million yuan. Over the past five days, the net inflow of main funds reached 67.67 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - The company reported its Q1 financial results on April 29, showing a total revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.55%, and a net profit of 33.88 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.92% [2]

证券代码：605500 证券简称：森林包装 公告编号：2025-031 森林包装集团股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 业绩预告的具体适用情形:实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比下降 50% 以上。 ● 森林包装集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现 归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2,200.00 万元到 3,300.00 万元，与上年同期相比， 将减少 72.42%到 58.64%；公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 扣除非经常性损益的净利润 2,050.00 万元到 3,050.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将 减少 74.61%到 62.23%。 公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 利润 2,050.00 万元到 3,050.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将减少 74.61%到 62.23%。 （三）本期业绩预告为公司根据经营情况的初步测算，未经注册会计师审计。 二、上年同期经营业绩和财务状况 （一）2 ...

森林包装（605500）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润2200万元到3300万元， 与上年同期相比，将减少72.42%到58.64%；公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润2050万元到3050万元，与上年同期相比，将减少74.61%到62.23%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the near term. There is a lack of new drivers, with port inventories remaining at high levels and South American supplies arriving. Demand is persistently weak, with downstream buyers making only rigid purchases and trading remaining light. The pulp price is expected to move within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in port inventory and downstream procurement demand. The policy on eliminating outdated production capacity strengthens the expectation of supply contraction, but with new domestic production capacity ramping up, the supply side is under pressure, and demand is likely to shrink during the off - season. The paper mill profit compression may lead to a negative cycle of "de - stocking - reducing production" [82]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of July 3, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 598,000 tons, up 52,000 tons (9.5% YoY) from the previous period; at Qingdao Port, it was 1.378 million tons, up 26,000 tons (1.9% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 114,000 tons, down 24,000 tons (17.4% YoY). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.213 million tons, up 50,000 tons (2.3% YoY) [6]. - Finland's Stora Enso Group announced that the Kemi pulp mill and its adjacent paper mill would resume production on July 4 after weeks of maintenance and repair. The Joutseno pulp mill has been shut down since June 9 until further notice [6]. Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On July 4, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 832 yuan/ton, down 2.58% from the previous period; for Russian Needle, it was 52 yuan/ton, up 116.67%. The Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 780 yuan/ton, down 6.02% [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: On July 4, 2025, the 09 - 11 monthly spread was - 2 yuan/ton, down 110% from the previous period; the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 210 yuan/ton, up 4.55% [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price Spread**: On July 4, 2025, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous period; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 2.80% [29]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of Silver Star turned negative. The broad - leaf pulp Star had no quotation in June and is expected to partially resume supply in July [35]. - **Spot Price**: The downstream paper mills' signing enthusiasm did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak. The import coniferous pulp spot market had limited transactions, and the spot price was weak. The decline of import coniferous pulp narrowed, and the decline of import broad - leaf pulp slowed down [40][42]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both YoY and MoM, and the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. The pulp import volume in May showed a differentiated performance, with coniferous pulp down 4.75% MoM and broad - leaf pulp up 7.84% MoM [50][53]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was at a high level this year, and the inventory of mainstream ports showed an increasing trend. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 228,500 tons, down 0.01% from the previous period; in factories, it was 17,300 tons, up 6.12% [77][70]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of finished paper showed different trends. The white cardboard capacity utilization rate increased by 3.30% from the previous period; the living paper increased by 0.16%; the offset paper decreased by 0.33%; the copperplate paper increased by 0.92%. The prices of white cardboard and copperplate paper remained stable, the price of living paper decreased, and the price of offset paper remained flat. The profits of white cardboard and living paper decreased, while the profits of cultural paper continued to recover [56][66][68]. Operation Suggestion - It is expected that the pulp will maintain low - level consolidation in the near term. Pay attention to changes in port inventory and downstream procurement demand. The core contradiction in the second half of the year may be the progress of production capacity clearance [82].

Group 1 - Recent increase in control change announcements among listed companies, with three companies terminating such plans since June [1] - Songyang Resources announced the termination of its control change plan due to disagreements on key terms between its controlling shareholder and the counterparty, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1] - Songyang Resources reported a revenue of 727 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%, but a net loss of 236 million yuan, marking its third consecutive year of losses [2] Group 2 - The paper industry is experiencing a transition from fatigue to recovery, with an increase in production and sales volumes for Songyang Resources, which is expected to improve market demand [2] - Haiwang Bio announced the termination of its control change plan after a year of planning, resulting in a slight initial drop in stock price followed by a recovery [2] - Kede Education's control change plan was also terminated after a month of planning, with its stock price rising by 1.45% shortly after the announcement [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest 11 billion yuan to establish an integrated high-performance paper base new material project using bamboo pulp, aiming to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on imported raw materials [1][2]. Investment Details - The investment will be executed in two phases, with each phase costing approximately 5.5 billion yuan, leading to a total investment of 11 billion yuan [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to add an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper base materials, generating an estimated annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 450 million yuan, while creating around 2,000 jobs [1]. Strategic Rationale - The investment aims to extend the industrial chain, achieve raw material self-sufficiency, and control costs, addressing the current dependency on imported wood pulp, which poses risks to cost management and supply chain stability [2][5]. - In 2024, the daily consumer series, which includes specialty paper, is projected to account for 47.05% of total revenue, highlighting the critical need for stable raw material supply [2]. Financial Implications - The total investment of 11 billion yuan represents 136% of Xianhe's net assets for 2024, with a current debt-to-asset ratio of 65.11%, indicating potential financial strain from large-scale financing [7]. - The company plans to finance the first phase of 5.5 billion yuan in batches, adjusting based on future demand and market conditions [7]. Market Conditions - The bamboo pulp production capacity utilization rate is expected to be only 85% in 2024, raising concerns about the feasibility of absorbing the new production capacity without facing impairment risks [7]. - Xianhe Co. faces competitive pressures from peers like Qingshan Paper Industry, which is also expanding its bamboo pulp capacity, potentially leading to increased price competition in the industry [7][8].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5044 yuan/ton, closing price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7] - SP2601 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5230 yuan/ton, closing price was 5284 yuan/ton, up 1.03% [7] - SP2605 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5178 yuan/ton, closing price was 5234 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: Coniferous pulp intended transaction price range was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low-end price stable compared to the previous trading day. Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] Operation Suggestions - Supply side: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp-producing countries decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year-on-year. European port wood pulp inventory in May increased by 13.3% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. As of June 26, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.49% month-on-month [8] - Demand side: Downstream paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remained cautious, mainly replenishing inventory at low levels for rigid demand [8] - Market outlook: The current port de-stocking speed is slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the expectation of new domestic production capacity, the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and it will operate in a low-range oscillation [8] Group 3: Industry News - On July 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. announced an overseas investment. On June 30, 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp and paper integrated high-performance paper-based new material project. The total investment is expected to be about 11 billion yuan to build an 800,000-ton bamboo pulp and 1.2 million-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The project is planned in stages. The first phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The second phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line, corresponding supporting projects, and a bamboo forest base [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures-spot price difference, needle-broadleaf price difference, inter-period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, white cardboard and whiteboard price and price difference, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has signed a significant investment agreement with the government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp paper integrated high-performance paper base new materials project, with a total investment of approximately 11 billion yuan [1][5]. Investment Details - The project will be constructed in two phases, each with an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan, aiming to produce 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper base new materials annually [2][5]. - The project is expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 5.15 billion yuan and provide around 2,000 jobs upon completion of the first phase [5][6]. Historical Investments - Since 2020, Xianhe Co., Ltd. has announced significant investments totaling 50.9 billion yuan across various projects in Guangxi, Hubei, and Shandong, in addition to the current Sichuan project [2][9]. - Notable projects include a 21.9 billion yuan expansion in Guangxi and a 10 billion yuan project in Shishou, Hubei [8][9]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q1 this year, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 65.49%, marking a historical high, with interest-bearing liabilities of 12.146 billion yuan against cash holdings of only 895 million yuan [4][11]. - The company's profitability has shown volatility, with net profits fluctuating from 1.017 billion yuan in 2021 to 1.004 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of 41.76%, -30.14%, -6.55%, and 51.23% respectively [11]. Market Position - Xianhe Co., Ltd. is recognized as one of the largest specialized manufacturers of high-performance paper base functional materials in China, with a diverse product range and significant market share in various segments [10]. - The company holds nearly 45% market share in the tobacco industry paper segment and about 25% in the thermal paper market, indicating a strong competitive position [10].

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has signed an investment agreement for a bamboo pulp paper integrated high-performance paper base new material project with a total planned investment of approximately 11 billion yuan, aiming to enhance production capacity and resource utilization in the bamboo pulp paper industry [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project will be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving an investment of about 5.5 billion yuan to establish production lines for 400,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 600,000 tons of high-performance paper base materials [1]. - The project is located in the Linjiang New Material Industrial Park in Hejiang County, Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, benefiting from abundant bamboo resources and favorable geographical conditions [1]. - Upon completion of the first phase, the project is expected to generate an annual output value of approximately 5.15 billion yuan and provide around 2,000 jobs [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project is expected to improve the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, reduce procurement and transportation costs, and enhance supply stability and cost control capabilities [2]. - Xianhe Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its high-performance paper base materials segment, responding to the trend of replacing plastic with paper and bamboo, and has launched several customized terminal products [2]. - The company has filed 73 patent applications in 2024, including 33 invention patents and 40 utility model patents, indicating a strong commitment to research and development [2]. Group 3: Broader Investment Context - In addition to the Sichuan project, Xianhe Co., Ltd. is also advancing two other major investment projects in Guangxi and Hubei, which are progressing according to plan and have begun production [3]. - The Guangxi project has already produced 100,100 tons of wood pulp and 28,900 tons of specialty paper in 2024, while the Hubei project has produced 93,400 tons of specialty paper and 59,800 tons of self-produced pulp [3]. - The multi-regional layout of Xianhe Co., Ltd. helps to mitigate regional risks and enhances overall competitiveness through resource differentiation and technology sharing [3].