截至发稿，ST晨鸣市值为61亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后，这些城市怎么 样了？ 每经AI快讯，ST晨鸣（SZ 000488，收盘价：2.07元）10月10日晚间发布公告称，公司控股子公司山东 晨鸣纸品有限公司（以下简称"晨鸣纸品"）拟开展供应链融资业务。为保障业务的顺利开展，公司控股 子公司湛江晨鸣浆纸有限公司（以下简称"湛江晨鸣"）及山东晨鸣纸品销售有限公司（以下简称"晨鸣 纸品销售"）拟为晨鸣纸品开展上述业务提供担保，担保方式包括但不限于抵押担保、质押担保、一般 保证、连带责任保证，担保金额不超过人民币20亿元，担保期限不超过5年。 为满足公司控股子公司湖北晨鸣科技实业有限公司（以下简称"湖北晨鸣实业"）融资业务需要，公司控 股子公司吉林晨鸣浆纤贸易有限公司（以下简称"吉林晨鸣浆纤"）拟为湖北晨鸣实业提供连带责任保证 担保，担保金额不超过人民币1000万元，担保期限不超过3年。 截至本公告披露日，公司及控股子公司对外担保总余额为人民币202.91亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净 资产的221.61%。其中，公司及控股子公司对合并报表外单位提供 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后，这些城市怎么 样了？ （记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，ST晨鸣（SZ 000488，收盘价：2.07元）10月10日晚间发布公告称，公司第十届第二十一 次董事会临时会议于2025年10月10日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于修订 <董事会审计委员会实施 细则> 的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，ST晨鸣的营业收入构成为：机制纸占比53.23%，化学浆占比35.13%，电力和热力占 比4.66%，酒店占比3.48%，其他行业占比3.35%。 截至发稿，ST晨鸣市值为61亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's FY25 results met expectations, with a revenue increase of 6.3% YoY to Rmb63.24 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb1.77 billion, reflecting a significant 176% HoH increase in 2HFY25 [1]. Sales and Production Trends - The company reported a total sales volume increase of 10% YoY to 21.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by growth in kraft paper (+1.10 million tonnes), ivory board (+500,000 tonnes), and P&W paper (+400,000 tonnes) [1]. - For FY26, the company has commissioned 1.2 million tonnes of ivory board paper, 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper, and 700,000 tonnes of chemical pulp in 1HFY26, with plans for an additional 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper within the year [2]. - Forecasts indicate paper production and sales volume will increase by over 5% YoY in FY26, with plans to commission 700,000 tonnes of ivory board paper in Chongqing and another 500,000 tonnes in Tianjin in 1HFY27 [3]. Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a near-term recovery in linerboard and corrugated board prices, estimating profit per tonne (before interest on perpetual bonds) at Rmb59 in 1HFY25 and Rmb151 in 2HFY25, with the latter benefiting from increased self-produced pulp output and lower thermal coal prices [4]. - Price hikes for linerboard and corrugated board have been progressing since July, supported by improving industry demand and rising domestic wastepaper prices, although costs per tonne have slightly increased due to rising coal and wastepaper prices [4]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - In FY25, the company's capex reached Rmb14.8 billion, a 15.7% YoY increase, while the debt-to-asset ratio rose by 1 percentage point YoY to 66%. For FY26, capex is guided at Rmb11 billion, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [5]. - Following the implementation of cost-cutting and efficiency measures, earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 11% and 15% to Rmb2.75 billion and Rmb2.88 billion, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 0.5x and 0.4x P/B, with a target price increase of 17% to HK$7, indicating a 22% upside [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.113 billion yuan, down 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, up 1.26% year-on-year [4] - The company is gradually increasing its overseas revenue, with foreign sales reaching 640 million yuan, up 71.89% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's integrated advantages in pulp and paper production, with significant new capacity planned to support long-term growth [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to have a revenue of 39.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.10 yuan [2] - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with several new projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.101 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's Q2 gross margin improved sequentially, leading to a quarterly profit that exceeded expectations [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue was primarily due to falling paper prices, particularly in the pulp and paper business [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion of its production capacity across its three major bases, which will enhance its operational efficiency and product structure [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points and a sequential increase of 1.5 percentage points [8]. - The first half of 2025 saw a gross margin of 16.5%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 40.2 billion, 45.9 billion, and 53.9 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10% across the board [10]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from various paper products was as follows: double glue paper (4.2 billion yuan, -14.8% YoY), copper plate paper (2.02 billion yuan, -4.9% YoY), and life paper (1.29 billion yuan, +24.0% YoY) [6]. - The revenue from the pulp business was also affected, with chemical pulp revenue down 20.3% YoY [6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The report indicates that the decline in gross margin for the paper business was mainly due to a shift in product mix and falling paper prices, which outpaced the decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The company’s operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 5.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several production lines in its Guangxi base in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and operational synergy [9]. - The long-term performance outlook remains positive due to the ongoing expansion and integration of its supply chain [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts FY25 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, exceeding both market expectations and previous estimates due to better-than-expected cost control in self-produced pulp and a decline in coal prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects FY25 earnings to be between 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 126% to 153% [1] - The company estimates FY25 paper production volume to be over 21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The company has a projected capital expenditure of over 13 billion yuan for FY25, with a potential decline in FY26 capital expenditure but still at a relatively high level [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in Guangxi and Hubei, with plans to produce 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 600,000 tons of cultural paper, 1.75 million tons of chemical pulp, and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp by FY25 [1] - By the end of FY25, the company's total paper and pulp production capacity is expected to exceed 30 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8% for paper and over 30% for pulp from 2021 to 2025 [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - The company's performance is primarily driven by a significant reduction in self-produced pulp costs, particularly at its integrated pulp and paper base in Beihai, Guangxi [2] - The average prices for various paper products have shown a downward trend, with boxboard, double glue paper, and white cardboard prices decreasing by 4%, 9%, and 7% respectively in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company needs to monitor changes in self-produced pulp costs and the pricing performance of certain paper products during peak seasons [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its earnings forecast for FY25 and FY26 by 25% and 49% respectively, with projected earnings of 1.8 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan [3] - The target price has been increased by 33% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.5x for FY25, FY26, and FY27 [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its earnings forecast for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) for FY25-26 by 25% and 49% to 1.8 billion and 2.5 billion HKD respectively, citing better-than-expected self-produced pulp cost advantages [1] Group 1: Earnings and Performance - The company expects FY25 earnings to be between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190%, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion HKD, up 126% to 153% [1] - CICC maintains an "outperform" rating for the industry and has raised the target price by 33% to 6.0 HKD, which implies an 11% upside potential [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - For FY25, the company is estimated to produce 21 million tons of paper, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a focus on expanding the pulp paper category and enhancing raw material layout [2] - The company plans to invest in new production bases in Guangxi and Hubei, with a total production capacity expected to exceed 30 million tons by the end of FY25 [2] Group 3: Cost Management - The core reason for the better-than-expected performance is attributed to a significant reduction in costs, particularly in self-produced pulp, and a notable decline in coal prices [3] - The average prices for various paper types have decreased, with boxboard paper, double glue paper, and white card paper down by 4%, 9%, and 7% respectively [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt - The company is entering a new phase of high capital expenditure, with FY25 capital spending expected to exceed 13 billion HKD [4] - There is a need to monitor the company's debt levels closely, as capital expenditures may remain relatively high in FY26 [4]

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Huatai Paper Industry Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decrease of 59.11% to 70.02% compared to the same period last year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 55 million to 75 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.843 million to 12.843 million yuan from the previous year [2][4]. - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 36 million to 56 million yuan, reflecting a reduction of 12.004 million to 14.004 million yuan year-on-year [2][4]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 227.13 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 183.43 million yuan [6]. - The net profit, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was 176.04 million yuan, with earnings per share recorded at 0.12 yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in sales prices of the company's main products, which outpaced the decrease in costs, leading to a reduction in gross profit margin and a decline in sales volume [8]. - The company is responding to the challenging economic environment by accelerating the production of a 700,000-ton chemical pulp project and advancing the construction of the Rizhao Huatai specialty pulp and paper project, while also optimizing product structure and improving management and production efficiency [8].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 55 million and 75 million yuan, representing a decrease of 10.843 million to 12.843 million yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 59.11% to 70.02% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 36 million and 56 million yuan, a decrease of 12.004 million to 14.004 million yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 68.19% to 79.55% [2] - The main reason for the expected decline in performance is that the decrease in product sales prices exceeds the decrease in costs, leading to a decline in gross profit margin, along with a decrease in sales volume [2] Group 2 - The company's total profit for the same period last year was 227.1302 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 183.4273 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 176.0392 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the same period last year was 0.12 yuan [2] - The company is accelerating the production and efficiency of a 700,000-ton chemical pulp project and promoting the construction of the Rizhao Huatai specialty pulp and paper project, while optimizing product structure and improving management and production efficiency to ensure stable development [2]