丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨太阳纸业（002078.SZ） [Table_Title] 太阳纸业快报点评： 25Q4 符合预期，看好后续业绩趋势向上 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 近日公司发布 2025 年业绩快报，2025 年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 391.84/32.58/32.00 亿元，同比-3.79%/+5.05%/-1.07%，对应 2025Q4 归母净利润 7.6 亿元（同比+18%），2025Q4 扣非净利润 7.3 亿元（同比+13%）。业绩符合预期，2025Q4 广西南宁基地 205 万吨浆纸新产 能投产后带来量增，四季度文化纸表现弱于季节性，但箱板纸受益于季节性旺季景气环比改善， 预估公司溶解浆部分灵活转产化学浆，盈利水平相对稳定。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 仲敏丽 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490522050001 SFC：BUV463 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] ...

We estimate the remaining capex at Rmb10bn by end-3Q27, and the firm slightly raised its FY26 capex guidance to Rmb12.5bn (vs. previous guidance of Rmb11bn). The firm's gearing ratio fell 1ppt YoY to 64.7% as of end-1HFY26, marking the first decline in the past five years. Operating cash flow, capex, and free cash flow were Rmb3.3bn (down YoY due to increased receivables), Rmb5.2bn, and -Rmb1.9bn. Black paper: Linerboard and corrugated board recoveredsteadily. We estimate net profit per tonne of paper at Rm ...

中期1240万吨，同比增加100万吨，全年销量2440万吨，增长源于文化纸从同期52万吨增长至90万吨，白卡从40万 吨增长至90万吨。 造纸产线建造完成 【玖龙纸业FY26H1交流要点】260226 【玖龙纸业FY26H1交流要点】260226 中期产量230万吨，FY26H2预计产量250万吨（化机浆+20万吨）。 自产化学浆较进口便宜1500元/吨，化机浆便宜500元/吨。 中期产量230万吨，FY26H2预计产量250万吨（化机浆+20万吨）。 自产化学浆较进口便宜1500元/吨，化机浆便宜500元/吨。 木片已经开始布局、预计1-2年将有木片供应。 公司计划以银行贷款与自有资金在27年6月到期前赎回永续债，预计2026财年末恢复派息，派息比例取决于还债进 度。 中期1240万吨，同比增加100万吨，全年销量2440万吨，增长源于文化纸从同期52万吨增长至90万吨，白卡从40万 吨增长至90万吨。 造纸产线建造完成，新增东莞纸浆规划，主要为了降低运输成本100元。 全年资本开支125亿元，预计FY27随着纸浆产线前期投入结束后将回落至70亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's performance exceeded expectations, with projected profits for FY26H1 estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production, leading to a significant value reconstruction for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a profit of 1.95-2.05 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0% [1] - The profit growth is primarily attributed to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs, resulting in a substantial increase in gross profit, with the main profit contribution coming from pulp [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - Incremental profit contributions mainly come from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities expected to ramp up in FY25H1 and FY26H1 [2] - New production capacities include 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp at the Beihai base, as well as additional capacities in Hubei and Guangxi [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - For FY26H2, the company anticipates further price increases for broadleaf pulp, while cultural and white card paper prices and profit per ton are at historical lows, suggesting potential for price recovery [2] - The profitability of integrated pulp and paper production capacity is expected to be a key driver of performance, with additional production and ramp-up in FY26H2 and FY27 [2]

业绩再超预期，浆纸一体化驱动价值重构 玖龙纸业(2689) [Table_Industry] 林纸产品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 7.46 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 玖龙纸业公司更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利 19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重 构 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万元人民币) | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689), with projected EPS for FY2026-2028 at 0.85, 0.94, and 1.03 CNY, respectively, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, the company is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with reduced raw material costs [1] - The main profit contribution is expected to come from pulp, with significant growth attributed to the increase in product sales and pricing [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - The Beihai base has 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp expected to be operational, while Hubei will add 650,000 tons of chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of mechanical pulp, along with additional paper products [2] Group 3 - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are likely to rise further and maintain high levels, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3] - The profitability of the integrated pulp and paper production capacity is highlighted as a key outperforming factor, with additional capacity expected to come online in FY26H2 and FY27, alongside improvements in corrugated paper profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the net profit estimates for Nine Dragons Paper (02689) for FY26-27 by 32% and 39% to 3.6 billion and 4.0 billion HKD respectively, due to higher-than-expected self-produced pulp output and profit per ton [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 1HFY26 is expected to be between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion HKD, with a core profit of 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [2] - The company is projected to achieve sales of approximately 12 million tons, with a net profit per ton of around 160 HKD, driven by lower self-produced pulp costs and higher output [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market for corrugated paper is recovering steadily, with significant price increases expected in the second half of 2025 due to rising waste paper prices and the traditional peak season [3] - The company is positioned as the largest player in the corrugated paper market in China, holding about 25% market share, which enhances its earnings potential as the sector recovers [3] Group 3: Production Insights - The company plans to produce 3 million tons of pulp in FY25, with expectations of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26, which is a key driver for the anticipated strong performance [4] - The company’s self-produced pulp supply rate is nearly 100%, allowing it to achieve excess profits compared to peers, with expected average net profit per ton for white paper exceeding 300 HKD [4] Group 4: Financial Quality Outlook - The company is nearing the completion of its capital expenditure cycle, with planned spending of around 11 billion HKD for FY26, which is lower than previous years [5] - The company’s financial quality is expected to improve significantly in FY26, supported by enhanced profits and cash flow [5]

证券日报网讯1月15日，华泰股份（600308）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司70万吨化学浆项 目于2025年5月投产以来，目前处于产能爬坡阶段，产能利用率将结合工艺优化进度与市场需求动态调 整，项目可灵活生产针叶浆、阔叶浆两类产品。该项目的投产已推动公司木浆自给率提升至85%以上， 后续公司将持续推进产能释放与工艺打磨，充分发挥项目在降本增效、产业链配套方面的核心作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co. emphasizes the importance of market value management and shareholder returns, highlighting the implementation of key initiatives to enhance its valuation and operational efficiency [2] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The 700,000-ton chemical pulp project has been successfully put into operation, improving the "pulp-paper integration" industry chain layout and enhancing cost control and risk resistance [2] - Share buybacks and increases in holdings by controlling shareholders have been completed on schedule, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [2] - Cash dividends have been fully paid, ensuring substantial returns for shareholders [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The company's stock price performance has not fully reflected its intrinsic value, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, market preferences, and industry cycle fluctuations [2] - The overall market has seen an upward trend over the past year, but the paper and chemical industry faces challenges such as raw material price fluctuations and differentiated market demand [2] - The company's price-to-book ratio is currently low, indicating that market expectations for the industry and the company have not fully recovered, while also highlighting a high margin of safety and investment value [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company will continue to focus on its core business operations and enhance its refined management capabilities [2] - There will be an emphasis on improving communication with the capital market to actively convey the company's value [2] - The company aims to reward investors with strong operational performance in the future [2]

证券日报网讯12月18日，华泰股份（600308）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司70万吨化学浆项 目已投产，纸浆自给率提升，进口纸浆依赖度显著下降。人民币升值对公司业绩的直接利好影响较小。 ...