该行估计FY25公司造纸销量2,100万吨+，同比+10%，过去玖龙专注箱瓦纸，2024年市占率近30%，近 几年公司战略重心为：扩浆纸品类+强化原料布局，产业链一体化增厚超额利润。据公司公告，FY22- 25公司核心聚焦广西+湖北新基地，扩产重心在纸浆、及配套造纸，FY25公司投产120万吨白卡纸、60 万吨文化纸，175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆，截至FY25，该行估算公司造纸、纸浆(含再生浆)产能超 2,300万吨、500万吨，对应2021-25年产能增速CAGR在8%、30%+。往前看，公司1HFY26仍有120万吨 白卡纸、70万吨文化纸、70万吨化机浆拟投放，至2025年末公司纸+浆产能突破3,000万吨，该行估计 FY26公司销量延续小幅增长，产品结构继续优化。 中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆成本优势超预期，上调FY25-26年业绩25%、49%至18 亿元、25亿元，引入FY27年25亿元，对应P/B为0.5x、0.4x、0.4x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价 33%至6.0港元，目标价对应P/B为0.5x、0.5x、0.5x，隐含11%上行空间。公司发布盈利预告，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Huatai Paper Industry Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a decrease of 59.11% to 70.02% compared to the same period last year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 55 million to 75 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.843 million to 12.843 million yuan from the previous year [2][4]. - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 36 million to 56 million yuan, reflecting a reduction of 12.004 million to 14.004 million yuan year-on-year [2][4]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 227.13 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 183.43 million yuan [6]. - The net profit, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was 176.04 million yuan, with earnings per share recorded at 0.12 yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in sales prices of the company's main products, which outpaced the decrease in costs, leading to a reduction in gross profit margin and a decline in sales volume [8]. - The company is responding to the challenging economic environment by accelerating the production of a 700,000-ton chemical pulp project and advancing the construction of the Rizhao Huatai specialty pulp and paper project, while also optimizing product structure and improving management and production efficiency [8].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 55 million and 75 million yuan, representing a decrease of 10.843 million to 12.843 million yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 59.11% to 70.02% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 36 million and 56 million yuan, a decrease of 12.004 million to 14.004 million yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 68.19% to 79.55% [2] - The main reason for the expected decline in performance is that the decrease in product sales prices exceeds the decrease in costs, leading to a decline in gross profit margin, along with a decrease in sales volume [2] Group 2 - The company's total profit for the same period last year was 227.1302 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 183.4273 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 176.0392 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the same period last year was 0.12 yuan [2] - The company is accelerating the production and efficiency of a 700,000-ton chemical pulp project and promoting the construction of the Rizhao Huatai specialty pulp and paper project, while optimizing product structure and improving management and production efficiency to ensure stable development [2]

Group 1 - The "Lucky 6666" vessel, carrying 38,000 cubic meters of wood chips, is unloading at Zhangzhou Port, which is the largest timber distribution center in Southeast China [3] - In the first half of this year, Zhangzhou Port has imported 1.6185 million cubic meters of wood chips, representing a year-on-year increase of 177.34% [3] - The Zhangzhou border inspection station has implemented measures to streamline customs procedures, reducing average processing time by 40% and saving over 33 million yuan in customs costs for enterprises in 2024 [3][4] Group 2 - The wood chip import business has significantly boosted the local timber industry, which is becoming an important source of income for Zhangzhou [4] - The logistics system at Zhangzhou Port allows for efficient transportation of raw wood to local processing facilities, where it is transformed into various paper products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market may show a pattern of counter - arbitrage and fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. After the suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures, the overall price center of the futures market may rise, and the near - far month spread may widen [78]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of June 19, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with a 0.7% increase in Changshu Port, 1.2% in Qingdao Port, and 2.6% in Gaolan Port. The total inventory of mainstream ports reached 220.8 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous period [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the suspension of the warehousing of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures [6]. - Shandong Sun Paper and its subsidiaries won new industrial land in Beihai, Guangxi and Yanzhou, Shandong [6]. Market Data Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on June 20, 2025, was 930 yuan/ton, with an 8.39% increase from the previous period and a 124.64% increase year - on - year. The basis of Russian Needle was 130 yuan/ton, with a 124.14% increase from the previous period and a 195.59% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period but a 45.45% increase year - on - year [14]. - The 09 - 11 month spread on June 20, 2025, decreased by 50% from the previous period, and the 11 - 01 month spread was - 82 yuan/ton, a 7.89% decrease from the previous period [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp (Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish) decreased. On June 20, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1950 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period but a 160% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1150 yuan/ton, a 4.17% decrease from the previous period and a 475% increase year - on - year [26]. - The import profit of Silver Star was positive but continued to decline this week. The hardwood pulp Star had no quotation in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July [33]. - The prices of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, Northwood, and Lion decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The prices of imported hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird remained stable [35][42]. - The price of Venus was 5100 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, a 2% increase from the previous period but a 6.42% decrease year - on - year. The price of Kunhe was 3900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and a 1.3% increase year - on - year [46]. Supply - In April 2025, the European port inventory decreased by 12.77% month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume decreased by 18.3% month - on - month and 10.89% year - on - year [50]. - In May 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance. The softwood pulp import volume decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, while the hardwood pulp import volume increased by 7.84% month - on - month [53]. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees on June 20, 2025. The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.2%, 62.1%, 54.6%, and 56.55% respectively [58]. - The prices of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper remained stable this week, but the market trading was light, and the raw material procurement enthusiasm was not high [61][64]. - The profit of household paper decreased this period, while the profits of other paper types increased to varying degrees [67]. Inventory - The total inventory of mainstream ports in China reached 220.8 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.05% increase from the previous period and a 21.12% increase year - on - year. The inventories in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port all increased [75]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.53 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.22% decrease from the previous period and a 50.27% decrease year - on - year. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.63 million tons, unchanged from the previous period and a 49.25% decrease year - on - year [69]. Operation Suggestions - The pulp market may fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable may increase the willingness of buyers to take delivery and raise the overall price center of the futures market. The market may show a counter - arbitrage pattern [78].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of Pulp Futures Contract 09 was 5,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,214 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Import Quotes: Chile's Arauco announced its May quotes, with Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, still lower than the previous quotes [7]. - Supply - side Data: According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, a 11.1% decrease month - on - month and a 10.2% decrease year - on - year. As of May 22, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, a 0.98% increase month - on - month [7]. - Market Outlook: The new round of import pulp quotes is mainly decreasing, the de - stocking speed at ports is still slow. Downstream paper mills have issued price - increase notices, boosting market confidence, but their raw material procurement attitude is cautious. Pulp may maintain a low - range oscillatory adjustment in the future [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Zhanjiang Zhongzhi Paper Co., Ltd. plans to make major adjustments to the construction scale of its high - end packaging new materials project at the China Paper Southern Base. The original plan was to build 1 production line of coated white cardboard with an annual output of 1.02 million tons and 2 chemical mechanical pulp production lines with a total annual output of 612,000 tons. The new plan includes 1 chemical mechanical pulp production line with an annual output of 400,000 tons, 1 chemical pulp production line with an annual output of 400,000 tons, and 2 special paper production lines with a total annual output of 190,000 tons. The project will also build solid waste resource comprehensive utilization facilities to improve resource utilization efficiency and achieve green and sustainable development [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, cross - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][24][26][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with a 2024 revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.99% [7] - The integrated operation of forestry, pulp, and paper is highlighted as a competitive advantage, positioning the company as a leader in the industry [7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 3.51 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 13%, 14%, and 12% [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.10 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% year-on-year [7] - The company’s paper sales reached 7.51 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.76% increase year-on-year, while pulp sales remained stable at 1.46 million tons [7] - The report projects total revenue growth of 8% for 2025 and 2026, with a slight decrease to 6% in 2027 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 53.03 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.3% [10] - The report provides a forecast for earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 1.11 yuan in 2024 to 1.60 yuan in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2024 to 8.8 in 2027, indicating improved valuation attractiveness over time [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant profit improvement in the first half of 2025, driven by stabilizing cultural paper prices and the completion of new production capacities [4]. - The integrated advantages of forestry, pulp, and paper production are becoming increasingly prominent, with the company’s plantation area reaching 60,000 hectares by the end of 2023, which will further enhance cost advantages [4]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward, estimating net profits for 2025-2027 to be 34.3 billion, 39.2 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 10X, and 9X [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, and a net profit of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s paper product sales reached 7.51 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.76% [4]. - The report provides detailed financial projections, including revenue growth rates of 3% for 2024, 6% for 2025, and 8% for 2026 [6]. Production Capacity and Projects - New production capacities are set to come online, including a special paper project and upgrades to the dissolving pulp production line, which are expected to enhance output and profitability [4]. - The company has several projects in the pipeline, including a 14,000-ton special paper project and a packaging paper project, both expected to enter trial production in 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth for 2024, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 40.73 billion and 3.10 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.0% and 0.5% [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 9.75 billion and 640 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 5.7% and 32.3% [2] - The company's paper business generated revenues of 13.00 billion, 4.13 billion, 2.02 billion, 0.994 billion, and 10.93 billion yuan from non-coated cultural paper, coated paper, household paper, laminated base paper, and corrugated box paper, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.3%, +17.9%, -1.3%, -21.3%, and +11.5% [3] - The pulp business revenues were 1.60 billion, 4.10 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan from mechanical pulp, dissolving pulp, and chemical pulp, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, +11.8%, and -18.9% [3] Group 2: Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was stable at 16.0%, with Q4 2024 gross margin at 14.9%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for the paper business were 13.4%, 14.8%, 11.9%, and 15.2% for non-coated cultural paper, coated paper, household paper, and corrugated box paper, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.3, +2.0, -2.5, and +0.5 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for the pulp business were 22.7%, 24.4%, and 19.8% for mechanical pulp, dissolving pulp, and chemical pulp, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.6, +8.3, and +2.3 percentage points [4] Group 3: Cost Management - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 6.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively [5] - In Q4 2024, the expense ratio was 6.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.5%, 2.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1%, respectively [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - In 2025, the company plans to launch several projects, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper base material project and a dissolving pulp production line relocation project, which will enhance the synergy among its three major bases [7] - By the end of 2025, the company aims to complete the first and second phases of the integrated "forest-pulp-paper" project in the Nanning area, facilitating resource integration and optimization of product structure and logistics [7]