Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Property** sector, particularly the performance of developers in the **Top 10 cities** which include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, and Tianjin [7][34]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Land Investment Efficiency**: - 86% of land bank investments by the covered developers from 2024 to Q1 2025 are concentrated in the Top 10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards better-performing markets [1][32]. - The analysis of six active land banking developers (CRL, COLI, Poly, CMSK, Greentown, and Jinmao) shows a potential for margin and ROE recovery [1][37]. 2. **Gross Profit Margin (GPM) and Return on Equity (ROE)**: - New acquisitions since 2024 are expected to yield GPM in the mid-teen% to over 20%, an improvement from below teen% levels for land acquired before 2024 [1][39]. - Average DP ROE from these new acquisitions is projected to be around 8%, aligning with the company-level ROE [1][39]. 3. **Earnings Estimates Revision**: - The 2026E/27E GPM for the six developers has been revised upwards by an average of 0.2pt and 0.7pt, respectively, with target prices increased by 1-5% [2][41]. - The earnings estimates for 2025E-27E are approximately 10% above consensus due to higher margin expectations [2][45]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The Top 10 cities have shown more resilient pricing trends and signs of price stabilization in both primary and secondary markets [8][11]. - Home sales volume in these cities has shown a year-on-year recovery trend, although still lower than peak levels in 2021 [13][15]. 5. **Supply and Inventory**: - The current inventory month in the Top 10 cities is at 17 months, which is healthier compared to the average of 40 months in 80 other cities [16][22]. - Primary supply levels have remained stable since 2021, while secondary supply has increased significantly, accounting for over 40% of total home supply as of April 2025 [22][24]. 6. **Rental Yield and Affordability**: - Residential rental yields in the Top 10 cities have exceeded the 30-year treasury yield since 2025, indicating a favorable investment environment [19][19]. - The new home price to income ratio in these cities has improved to levels seen in 2016, enhancing affordability [24][24]. 7. **Sensitivity to Rate Cuts**: - Home sales in the Top 10 cities have historically been more sensitive to mortgage rate cuts, although this sensitivity has diminished in the current downcycle [9][27]. Additional Important Insights - The rising land competition in key markets could pose risks to further margin improvement, but collaboration among developers may mitigate this risk [2][2]. - Faster-than-expected property price recovery could lead to additional upside in margins, ROE, and overall valuation [2][2]. - The analysis indicates a solidifying market leadership among the covered developers in the Top 10 cities, with their share of total land banking reaching 70% [31][35]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the China Property sector, focusing on the performance of key developers and market dynamics.

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Group 1 - Guangzhou's land auction market has officially entered the second half, with five residential plots listed for auction on June 30, 2023, with a total starting price of 7.67 billion yuan [1] - The listed plots are located in prime areas, including Tianhe and Haizhu districts, with significant surrounding amenities and infrastructure [3][5] - The AH050335 plot in Haizhu district has a starting price of 2.87 billion yuan, with a floor price of 34,000 yuan per square meter, indicating strong market interest [10][12] Group 2 - The AH050335 plot has a total area of 12,071.3 square meters and a high plot ratio of 7.0, suggesting the potential for high-rise development [12] - The plot will include public service facilities such as a kindergarten and a community center, enhancing its attractiveness for residential development [13] - The Xiaomei Street plot in Liwan district has a starting price of 313 million yuan, located in a well-established residential area with strong commercial and medical facilities nearby [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman's Pershing Square fund is transforming Howard Hughes Holdings into a diversified holding company, similar to Berkshire Hathaway, presenting an investment opportunity for those looking to leverage Ackman's expertise [2][16]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio Overview - Pershing Square's equity portfolio is valued at $13.6 billion, with over half invested in three key stocks: Uber Technologies, Brookfield, and Howard Hughes Holdings [3]. Group 2: Uber Technologies - Uber represents 19% of Pershing Square's equity portfolio, with an investment of approximately $2.3 billion, now valued at around $2.6 billion [5]. - Ackman believes concerns regarding autonomous vehicles negatively impacting Uber's value are unfounded, as Uber's extensive network of over 170 million users is valuable for self-driving car companies [6]. - Uber's EBITDA increased by 35% last quarter, supported by a 14% rise in gross bookings, with expectations for similar growth in the upcoming quarter [7]. - The company generated $2.3 billion in free cash flow last quarter, a 66% year-over-year increase, with a goal to convert over 90% of EBITDA into free cash flow in the next three years [8]. - Uber's stock trades at an enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of about 25, which is considered attractive given its 30% annual EBITDA growth [9]. Group 3: Brookfield - Brookfield accounts for 17% of the portfolio, with a total investment value of about $2.4 billion after acquiring an additional 6.1 million shares [10]. - The company has a unique corporate structure with several publicly traded subsidiaries, including Brookfield Asset Management, which owns 73% of its shares [11]. - Distributable earnings rose by 27% year-over-year in the first quarter, with management projecting a cash flow growth rate exceeding 20% annually through 2029 [12]. - Brookfield's shares trade at 13.8 times trailing distributable earnings, with Ackman suggesting a valuation multiple of at least 16 [13]. Group 4: Howard Hughes Holdings - Howard Hughes Holdings makes up 14% of the portfolio, with Ackman acquiring a 47% stake worth about $1.9 billion [14]. - The company's assets are valued at $5.9 billion, indicating the stock is trading at a discount [15]. - Management anticipates net operating income growth of up to 4% in 2025, with long-term projections indicating a 37% increase from 2024 levels [15]. - Ackman plans to diversify Howard Hughes by adding an insurance business, which would provide capital for further investments [16]. - The new structure incurs a quarterly fee of $3.75 million to Pershing Square, along with a 0.375% incentive fee, but may offer investors a direct way to invest in Ackman's strategies [17].

Company Overview - Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd is a Japanese developer specializing in luxury residential properties, including single-family homes and condominiums, across Tokyo, Kanagawa prefecture, and Sapporo [10] - The company also operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment units in Japan and Dallas, Texas [10] - The mission of the company is to provide stylish, safe, and luxurious living, while its vision focuses on continuous improvement and leveraging its strong market position in the luxury residential property market [11] Recent Developments - The company announced the signing of a sales contract for its planned luxury single-family home, REAL PRO Ookayama [1] - The REAL PRO SERIES Ookayama will be constructed from wood, featuring two floors above ground, with a building area of 2,029.3 square feet and a land area of 1,784.2 square feet [2] Location Highlights - Ookayama is known for its vibrant dining district, including the famous Ookayama Underground Dining Area, which has a nostalgic atmosphere reminiscent of the Showa Era [3][8] - The area is home to the prestigious Tokyo Institute of Technology, enhancing its appeal as a "Student Town" [5] - Ookayama Station provides direct access to major shopping districts, including Jiyugaoka and Futako-Tamagawa, both just 10 minutes away [5] Architectural Design - The architectural design of the REAL PRO SERIES is supervised by Pro Style Design Office Inc., known for its luxury architectural designs [6] - The design philosophy emphasizes creating high-density spaces that cater to the owner's lifestyle through the use of luxury brands in various aspects of living [6]

Core Insights - New World China has successfully delivered its new landmark project, Yaosheng New World Plaza, in the Panyu District, enhancing the real estate landscape in Guangzhou [1][2] - The project includes luxury residences, premium office spaces, and a K11 Select shopping center, contributing to the development of the Long Chong Wanbo area and the Greater Bay Area [1][3] Group 1: Project Overview - Yaosheng New World Plaza is positioned as a new landmark in the Long Chong Wanbo CBD, with the first residential phase, Yaosheng Zunfu, officially delivered on May 26 [2][3] - The project features high-end residential units, super-grade office buildings, and a K11 Select shopping center, aiming to elevate the business and consumer landscape in the area [1][3] Group 2: Market Positioning - Yaosheng Zunfu has become a model project for immediate delivery and property certificate issuance, attracting significant attention in the current market [2][5] - Approximately 20% of the buyers are from Hong Kong, with additional interest from expatriates, indicating a strong demand for high-end properties in Guangzhou [5][6] Group 3: Development Impact - The Long Chong Wanbo CBD has become a world-class business district, with over 24,000 registered companies and several listed firms establishing a presence [3][4] - The area is set to integrate international tourism and commercial elements, enhancing its status as a key urban center in the Greater Bay Area [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Core Insights - The Dubai Land Department has launched a tokenised real estate platform allowing investments starting from AED2,000, with expectations that tokenised assets will represent 7% of Dubai's real estate market by 2033, equating to around AED60 billion in value [2] - Residential sales prices in Dubai increased by 5.7% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [3][22] - In contrast, Abu Dhabi's residential sales prices increased by 7.0% in the same period, showing a stronger growth trend [4][41] - The rental market in Dubai has also seen a slowdown, with a 4.1% increase in rents in the first four months of 2025, compared to 15.7% in 2024 [3][51] - Abu Dhabi's rental values increased by 8.9% in the first four months of 2025, driven primarily by apartments [5][59] Summary by Sections Residential Market - Dubai's residential sales prices increased by 5.7% in early 2025, down from 18.0% in 2024 and 20.1% in 2023, indicating a slowdown [3][22] - Abu Dhabi's residential sales prices increased by 7.0% in early 2025, compared to 11.1% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2023 [4][41] - Rental values in Dubai increased by 4.1% in early 2025, down from 15.7% in 2024, while Abu Dhabi saw an 8.9% increase in rents [3][51][59] Supply Trends - The residential supply in Dubai is expected to increase significantly by 2027, with approximately 16% of the current supply expected to be added [5] - Abu Dhabi is also expected to see a rise in residential supply, with around 12% of the current stock anticipated to be added by 2027 [5][44] - The office market in Abu Dhabi is projected to add approximately 7% to the current stock by the end of 2027, while Dubai's office market is expected to add about 3.5% [6][68] Retail Market - The retail market in Dubai is expected to see limited additions, with only about 1.6% of the current stock expected to be added by the end of 2027 [7][72] - Abu Dhabi's retail market is projected to see a slightly higher increase of around 5.6% [7][72] Hospitality Sector - Dubai currently has a stock of 154,800 hotel rooms, with an additional 4,500 rooms forecasted to be delivered by the end of 2024 [77] - Abu Dhabi has a current stock of 32,800 hotel rooms, with another 540 rooms expected to be delivered by the end of 2024 [79]

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Poly and CMSK [2][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights improving land investment efficiency among developers, with 86% of land bank investments concentrated in the Top 10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards better-performing markets [1][28]. - The analysis suggests that new acquisitions by six key developers are expected to yield gross profit margins (GPM) in the mid-teen% to over 20%, an improvement from below teen% levels for land acquired before 2024 [1][35]. - The average return on equity (ROE) from these new acquisitions is projected to be around 8%, aligning with historical trends and supporting a valuation recovery [1][35][43]. Summary by Sections Best Performing Cities - The Top 10 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, have shown resilient pricing trends and signs of price stabilization in both primary and secondary markets [5][6]. - Home sales volume in these cities has indicated a year-on-year recovery trend, with a 36%/2% decline compared to the peak month in 2021 and the monthly average in 2024 [10][12]. Margin & ROE Improvement - The report notes that the concentration of land investment in the Top 10 cities has increased significantly, with these cities accounting for 86% of new land investments since 2024, compared to about half from 2018-2023 [28][29]. - The expected GPM for new acquisitions is projected to reach an average of 14% for 2026E-2027E, compared to an average of 13% in 2024 [35][37]. Upward Revisions - The report revises the 2026E/27E GPM for the six developers by an average of 0.2pt/0.7pt and their target prices by 1-5%, reflecting a more positive outlook on price trends and land acquisitions [2][37]. - The earnings estimates for 2025E-27E are projected to be approximately 10% above consensus, driven by higher topline and margin expectations [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on selected companies within the MENA region, particularly focusing on UAE and Saudi Arabia [9][45]. Core Insights - The GCC markets exhibit resilience to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on sectors less sensitive to oil prices, particularly in the UAE [2][54]. - A bearish outlook for oil prices is anticipated in 2025-26 due to increased non-OPEC production, but a bullish cycle is expected to follow from 2027 onwards [8][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of economic diversification in the UAE, which is less exposed to oil price fluctuations compared to Saudi Arabia [27][55]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The US macro team has raised the growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1% and reduced the 12-month recession odds to 35% [15][20]. - The perceived de-escalation of tariffs is seen as an indirect positive for GCC markets, although oil price movements remain a more relevant driver for regional performance [17][21]. Sector Analysis - The UAE is highlighted as favorably positioned due to its economic diversification, with strong prospects in Real Estate, Energy, and Mobility sectors [3][54]. - In Saudi Arabia, the focus is on identifying resilient companies in the TMT sector and selective opportunities within Financials, Consumers, and Chemicals [3][54]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors identified for investment include UAE Real Estate, Energy (specifically ADNOC), and Infrastructure/Mobility [10][12]. - In Saudi Arabia, companies like Saudi Aramco and SABIC are favored due to their strong fundamentals and strategic positioning [10][45]. Capex Cycle Insights - The report anticipates continued spending momentum across sectors in the GCC, particularly in Energy, Digital Innovation, and Clean Tech, despite a lower oil price environment [46][50]. - The GCC Capex Wave is expected to focus on non-oil sectors, with significant investments in digitization, metals & mining, and clean energy [39][40]. Company-Specific Recommendations - The report recommends a selective approach to investments in banks, favoring those with a balanced loan mix and strong deposit franchises, such as SNB and Riyad Bank [10][45]. - In the consumer sector, companies like Almarai and Lulu are under scrutiny for their ability to navigate current market pressures [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for C&D International with an unchanged target price (TP) of HKD 21.20, implying a 57% upside from the current share price of HKD 13.54 [4][6][10]. Core Insights - C&D International is positioned to benefit from the revitalization of Xiamen's housing market, characterized by increasing sales volumes, declining inventory, and stabilizing new home prices. This marks a recovery from a significant sales decline of 29% year-on-year in 2024 due to market weakness [1][2]. - The implementation of Xiamen's advanced home purchase voucher scheme is expected to stimulate demand and alleviate inventory pressure, contributing to 40% of the gross floor area (GFA) sold in the primary market from October 2024 to February 2025 [2][10]. - C&D's strategic landbank investments in Xiamen, totaling RMB 19 billion for six sites in 2024, provide a competitive supply advantage as market sentiment improves [3][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 21.20, reflecting a 57% upside potential [4][6]. Market Conditions - Xiamen's property market is experiencing "goldilocks" conditions with increasing sales volumes and declining inventory, which is expected to benefit C&D International [1][2]. Policy Impact - The new home purchase voucher scheme in Xiamen is effectively stimulating demand and reducing inventory pressure, with significant contributions to sales in the primary market [2][10]. Land Acquisition Strategy - C&D's counter-cyclical land acquisitions in Xiamen position the company favorably against competitors, enhancing its market presence as sentiment improves [3][10]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook includes projected property sales of RMB 138.623 billion for 2024, with a slight decrease expected in subsequent years, followed by a recovery [11][12].