上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月25日（周三）晚盘盘初上涨0.04%报769.0元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月25日（周三）晚盘盘初下跌0.09%报8650.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

一、非农数据与金价的动态关联：2025 年 6 月最新行情透视 2025 年 6 月 6 日，美国劳工部公布的 5 月非农就业数据成为全球金融市场的 "风向标"。数据显示，新 增就业人数达 13.9 万，超出预期的 13 万，失业率维持在 4.2%，而平均时薪同比涨幅达 3.9%，高于预 期的 3.7%。这一超预期表现迅速引发市场连锁反应：美元指数与美债收益率同步飙升，纽约商品交易 所 8 月黄金期货价格单日下跌 0.84%，收于每盎司 3346.60 美元。这一波动背后，折射出非农数据通过 货币政策预期与避险情绪对金价的双重影响机制： 货币政策预期：强劲的就业数据强化了市场对美联储推迟降息的预期，持有黄金的机会成本上升，导致 投资者转向美元及高息资产，黄金需求下降。 避险情绪消退：就业市场的稳健表现缓解了经济衰退担忧，投资者风险偏好升温，黄金作为避险资产的 吸引力减弱。 二、非农数据影响金价的深层逻辑：行业报告与历史规律 通胀与利率博弈：薪资增速超预期可能加剧通胀压力，但若经济增长同步放缓，市场可能陷入 "滞胀" 担忧，黄金的抗通胀属性将凸显。 市场情绪波动：数据公布后的 15 分钟至 1 小时内，金价往往 ...

金十图示：2025年06月25日（周三）上海黄金交易所市场行情 ...

Group 1 - International spot gold experienced a significant drop of $46.05, reaching $3322.93 per ounce, marking a decline of 1.37% and hitting a two-week low [1] - Spot silver also fell below the $36 mark, trading at $35.83 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold futures in China dropped by 1.10% to 772.22 yuan per gram, while major jewelry brands saw a decrease of 14 yuan to 998 yuan per gram, falling below the 1000 yuan threshold [1] Group 2 - The unexpected announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a rapid withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets, directly causing the drop in gold prices [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates reduced the probability of a rate cut in September to below 35%, resulting in a stronger dollar index and increased holding costs for gold, further contributing to the price decline [3] Group 3 - Despite short-term pressures, the underlying logic for international spot gold remains unchanged, with ongoing geopolitical risks and a potential spike in oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which could reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Global central bank gold reserves have risen to 22%, the highest level since 1965, with China increasing its holdings to 2300 tons over the past eight months, indicating a continued trend that may influence future gold prices [4] - The demand for silver is expected to remain robust, with projected photovoltaic silver consumption reaching 140 million ounces by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [4]

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月25日（周三）收盘下跌0.38%报771.7元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月25日（周三）收盘下跌0.25%报8698.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a rare "double kill" scenario in June 2025, with a monthly volatility of 35%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - Investors who timed the market effectively achieved over 15% returns, while those who chased trends faced losses exceeding 20% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions significantly influenced short-term price fluctuations, with gold prices surging nearly $30 to $3398 per ounce on June 23 due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, followed by a drop to $3342.59 on June 24 after a ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated, with a hawkish stance initially suppressing gold prices, but dovish signals later provided support, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 80% [2] Group 2: Market Patterns - The volatility premium indicated that for every 1-level increase in geopolitical risk, gold price daily fluctuations expanded by 40% [4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve communications led to significant price swings, with gold prices experiencing ±1.5% changes within two hours of announcements [5] Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and China's central bank expected to increase holdings by 200 tons in 2024 [7] - The wedding season in China (June to August) is projected to boost gold jewelry consumption by 8% year-on-year, contributing to 45% of global physical demand [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to remain complex in July, with $3350 acting as a critical support level; a breach could lead to a decline towards $3250-$3300, while stability above $3400 may trigger buying pressure [8] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony and the release of the U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices significantly [9]

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月25日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.7%报769.22元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月25日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.69%报8660.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月24日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.99%报767.0元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月24日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.91%报8641.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月24日（周二）晚盘盘初下跌0.72%报769.11元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月24日（周二）晚盘盘初上涨0.03%报8723.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the market trends of the Shanghai Gold Exchange as of June 24, 2025, highlighting significant fluctuations in gold prices and trading volumes [1] Market Trends - The gold price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange experienced a notable increase, reaching approximately 1,900 USD per ounce, reflecting a rise of 5% compared to the previous month [1] - Trading volume on the exchange surged to 50 million ounces, marking a 10% increase from the previous month, indicating heightened investor interest [1] Investor Sentiment - The article suggests that investor sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts predict that if the current trends continue, gold prices could potentially reach 2,000 USD per ounce by the end of the year [1]