巴西大豆坐地起价！中国三张底牌亮剑，全球粮仓生变局 前言 这场博弈最精彩的反转在于"信任成本"。巴西以为赚点快钱能逼中国妥协，却不知断掉的是长期合作的根。澳大利亚前车之鉴就在眼前：当年摆架子不卖小 麦，转眼订单全跑南美，最后还得主动求和。中国市场的逻辑从来都是"谁靠谱跟谁玩"，巴西此番背刺，等于给全球资源出口国上了堂生动的"诚信课"。 巴西粮商做梦都没想到，原本以为能狠赚中国一笔的"涨价大招"，竟成了砸自己饭碗的回旋镖。2025年10月，圣保罗港的豆农还在盘算着每吨多赚的18美 元，中国买家已火速调转船头，将订单砸向阿根廷、乌拉圭甚至俄罗斯远东。更狠的是，中储粮直接甩出"储备牌"——全国储备足以撑足三个月，直接给国 际粮价戴上了"紧箍咒"。 巴西的"坐地起价"玩得有多野？短短三周，对华大豆报价像坐了火箭般飙升，溢价直接碾压美国大豆。圣保罗港的老货代拍着大腿直呼："往常每吨运费加 保险才300美元，现在港口滞留费每天就烧掉120万美元！"更讽刺的是，巴西农业部紧急组团来华协商时，中国买家已和阿根廷签下新单——南美另一巨头 直接取消大豆出口关税，价格瞬间"真香"，乌拉圭、俄罗斯的货轮也在黄海港排队卸货。 中国这波 ...

自从特朗普上台以来，中美之间贸易碰撞不断，面对美国的关税威胁，我国也在第一时间做出了回应，直接叫停对美国的大豆进口。 自从五月以来，我国和美国未签过一单新合同，在九月进口量更是直接清零，一点儿都不给美国反应的机会。 作为当今世界上最大的大豆进口国，我国每年的进口数量足足达到了一亿吨，占了全球大豆总进口数量的60%，而之前我国的采购中心一直都是美国，每年 的贸易额都不是一个小数。 不过美国却一点儿都没想着中国的好，反而对中国掀起了关税战。 既然美国这么不给中国面子，那么我们自然也没必要给他们面子。世界上又不只有美国一个国家出口大豆，不从美国买，大不了我们就从其他国家进口。 而巴西则很快成为了我国的最佳选择，当中国和美国贸易战正打得热火朝天的时候，我国已经悄然将大豆的进口中心转向了巴西，进口数量更是达到了千万 吨级别。 但也就是当我们以为巴西能成为我们稳定的贸易伙伴，帮助我们解决大豆进口问题的时候，巴西却突然倒打一耙，搞起了坐地起价。 根据最新消息，最近巴西的对华大豆报价开始不断上涨，从最开始的每吨580美元一路涨到了现在的650美元，每吨足足涨价了70美元，涨幅也来到了12%。 如果只是小额贸易的话，涨价还能够 ...

Core Points - The recent round of economic and trade consultations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, highlighting the importance of dialogue in resolving differences [1][2] - The discussions covered a wide range of topics, including U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs and enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls, all of which are crucial for global supply chain stability [1][2] - Both countries emphasized the need to maintain a cooperative relationship, with China advocating for a stable and open international trade environment, while the U.S. expressed its intention not to decouple from China [2][3] Group 1 - The consultations were guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both nations, which has set the tone for improving and developing U.S.-China relations [2] - The essence of U.S.-China economic relations is mutual benefit, and both sides recognize that cooperation leads to shared gains while conflict results in losses [2] - China aims to expand high-level openness, providing more opportunities for all countries, including the U.S., as part of its long-term development strategy [3] Group 2 - The recent consultations are seen as a step towards maintaining stability in U.S.-China economic relations, which aligns with the fundamental interests of both nations and the expectations of the international community [2] - The Chinese government has shown strategic foresight and stability through its long-term planning, which is viewed positively by the international community amid global uncertainties [3] - The successful outcomes of the consultations require joint efforts from both countries to maintain and build upon the progress made [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in China's soybean procurement strategy, highlighting the transition from U.S. to Brazilian suppliers and the implications of price increases by Brazilian traders, which reflect broader changes in global supply chain dynamics [1][3][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Starting from May 2025, China's soybean purchases from the U.S. decreased to zero by September, with Brazil becoming the primary supplier [1]. - Brazilian traders raised soybean prices aggressively, with quotes increasing from $580 to $650 per ton, a 12% rise in just a few weeks [3]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China imported 52.1 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, accounting for 66% of total imports, with some months seeing up to 93% [3][5]. Group 2: China's Response - China reacted to Brazil's price hikes by organizing a collective halt on soybean orders for December 2025 and January 2026, amounting to 8 million tons, indicating a strategic counteraction [7]. - China's response is based on a well-thought-out strategy, showcasing its ability to not rely solely on Brazilian supplies [9][22]. - The country has built a diversified supply network, including Argentina and Uruguay, to mitigate risks associated with dependence on a single supplier [11][18]. Group 3: Strategic Assets - China's state reserves provide a buffer in negotiations, allowing for market stabilization and time to seek alternative sources [9][18]. - The cancellation of export tariffs by Argentina led to a rapid increase in orders from China, filling the gap left by Brazil [11]. - Technological advancements have reduced China's reliance on soybeans, with alternative feed components increasing in usage [13][20]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The article suggests that Brazil's short-sighted price increases may lead to a loss of market trust in the long run, while Argentina's strategic moves could enhance its market position [22]. - China's actions demonstrate a mature national strategy that balances diversification, reserve management, and technological innovation [22]. - The ongoing shifts in the soybean market reflect a broader reconfiguration of commodity pricing dynamics, with China increasingly shaping its role as a proactive market player [20].

在巴西圣保罗港，成山的大豆堆积着，每天都在消耗着高达120万美元的港口滞留费用。 它们为什么会在这里"搁浅"？ 今天，我们就来"解剖"这堆大豆，看看它背后究竟藏着怎样的故事。 首先，这200万吨大豆，源自于巴西严重的经济误判。 今年，随着中美关税摩擦的持续升温，中国暂停了对美国大豆的新订单采购，到9月份更是彻底切断了这条贸易线。 他们单方面将大豆报价从每吨580美元，一口气拉升到650美元，涨幅接近12%。 这是什么概念？涨价后的巴西大豆，竟然比同期的美国大豆还要贵上66美元。 巴西方面显然认为，手握独家货源的他们，有足够的底气让中国买家为这份"贪婪溢价"买单。 而他们算错了一笔大账，他们眼里的利润，在中国下游产业的眼中，却是企业的负担不起。 对拥有近百家油料压榨厂的中国工业体系而言，这已经不是赚多赚少的问题，而是生死存亡的问题。 按照1美元兑7.2元人民币的汇率粗略一算，每吨进口成本就凭空多出了750元。 这意味着，加工企业每加工一吨巴西大豆，就要实打实地亏损超过200元，整个产业链都面临着停摆的巨大风险。 当供应商的报价触碰到一个工业体系的成本红线时，市场的反应是直接且残酷的。 中国近百家压榨厂迅速达成了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global soybean market is experiencing significant shifts, with Brazil emerging as the primary supplier to China, while Argentina's recent policy changes disrupt the pricing strategies of Brazilian exporters [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - China has historically relied on the U.S. for soybean imports, with U.S. exports to China reaching 32.85 million tons in 2017, accounting for 34% of China's total imports [3]. - The U.S. soybean market share declined after the 2018 trade tensions, leading to increased costs for U.S. soybeans by 300 to 500 RMB per ton, diminishing its competitive edge [3][5]. Group 2: Brazil's Rise - Brazil became China's largest soybean supplier in 2018, exporting 53.99 million tons, which constituted 56% of China's imports [5]. - By 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach 74.65 million tons, representing 71.1% of China's imports [7]. - Brazilian farmers have seen significant income increases, with some purchasing private planes for monitoring crops due to the booming soybean market [7]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies and Market Dynamics - Brazilian exporters attempted to form a price alliance to raise soybean prices, leading to a premium of $66 per ton over U.S. soybeans, the highest in four years [8][10]. - However, this strategy backfired as China diversified its import sources, establishing procurement channels with Argentina, Uruguay, and Russia [10]. Group 4: Argentina's Impact - Argentina announced a reduction of export tariffs from 26% to zero, significantly lowering export costs and disrupting Brazilian pricing strategies [11]. - Following Argentina's announcement, China quickly secured 1.3 million tons of soybeans at competitive prices, undermining Brazilian exporters' plans [11][13]. Group 5: Consequences for Brazil - Brazilian exporters faced a dramatic shift in market conditions, with many unable to sell their accumulated stocks, leading to layoffs and financial distress [13][14]. - The Brazilian media criticized exporters for their short-sighted pricing strategies, which damaged trust in the Chinese market and resulted in a loss of market share [14][16].

Core Insights - The 32nd Yangling Agricultural High-tech Achievements Expo serves as a significant platform for international agricultural cooperation, particularly between China and Central Asian countries [4][6] - The participation of Central Asian exhibitors has notably increased, showcasing a variety of regional products and enhancing trade relations [4][6] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo features over 200 foreign enterprises from 47 countries, with a strong representation from Central Asian companies [4] - The event has transformed into a microcosm of Silk Road trade, highlighting the cultural and commercial exchanges between China and Central Asia [3][6] Group 2: Trade Growth - In 2024, the import and export volume between Shaanxi Province and the five Central Asian countries is projected to reach 8.575 billion RMB, marking a 48.1% year-on-year increase [4] - The increasing participation of Central Asian merchants, such as those from Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, reflects the growing trade opportunities and market interest [4][6] Group 3: Cultural Exchange - The expo not only facilitates trade but also promotes cultural exchanges, with various cultural performances enhancing the atmosphere of cooperation [6] - Participants express a sense of community and warmth, indicating that the event fosters deeper cultural ties alongside commercial interactions [6]

在巴西圣保罗港，曾经繁忙的码头现在陷入了"豆油危机"。数百万吨大豆堆积如山，似乎压得巴西粮商们喘不过气来，每天高达120万美元的滞港费让他 们的利润不断缩水。这些原本视为"摇钱树"的大豆，如今成了烫手山芋，究竟发生了什么？ 这一切要从2025年全球经济格局说起。中美之间的关税冲突不断加剧，影响了全球大豆贸易。中国作为全球最大的大豆进口国，在这种紧张形势下采取了 果断措施：暂停从美国的大豆新订单，并在9月全面中断进口，将目光转向了巴西。巴西的大豆瞬间成为中国市场的热销品，2025年1月至9月，中国从巴 西进口了5210万吨大豆，占总进口量的66%，某些月份甚至占到了93%。这一巨大的市场份额让巴西粮商们看到了巨额财富，然而他们却错估了形势。 巴西粮商们一度认为，中国大豆需求旺盛且无法轻易找到替代供应源，便开始加价推销。他们将大豆价格从580美元/吨抬升至650美元/吨，涨幅接近 12%。这一价格不仅比同期的美国大豆贵了66美元/吨，且他们认为抓住了中国的"软肋"，可以大赚一笔。然而，他们却忽略了中国市场的应变能力。 在巴西粮商苦于涨价困境时，阿根廷却迎来了一个"及时雨"。9月22日，阿根廷宣布对大豆及相关制品的 ...

最近，中国与巴西之间的"大豆采购"竞争悄然升温。虽然大豆看似是一种小小的农产品，但它背后却与全球粮食安全紧密相关，甚至涉及到国家的战略安 全。 这场较量的起点，可以追溯到中美贸易战。那时，中国几乎完全暂停了从美国进口大豆，转而寻找南美的供应商，最终把目光投向了巴西。然而，巴西却在 尝到甜头之后，迅速提高了大豆的价格。 巴西本应更加珍惜中国这个大客户，却反手"加价"——大豆的价格从每吨580美元一跃上涨至650美元，涨幅接近12%。这个价格比美国的大豆贵了整整66美 元一吨！价格一涨，国内大豆压榨企业面临了不小的压力。每加工一吨大豆，企业的亏损额超过200元人民币。许多油厂因此决定暂停从巴西采购，尤其是 12月和明年1月的订单，共计达800万吨。 在此背景下，巴西似乎认为，中国如此依赖自己，无法轻易找到替代供应商。的确，数据显示，中国在2025年前九个月从巴西进口了5210万吨大豆，占中国 大豆进口总量的66%，某些月份甚至高达93%。可巴西却忘了，中国早已不再是那个"只有你能供应"的中国了。 近年来，中国已经开始实施"大豆进口多元化战略"，不再将所有"鸡蛋"放在一个篮子里。阿根廷、乌拉圭、俄罗斯，甚至一些非洲 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have led to a significant shift in the soybean market, with Brazil initially positioned to benefit but ultimately mismanaging the opportunity [1][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, China has ceased soybean imports from the US due to increased tariffs, creating a gap that Brazil was expected to fill [1] - Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise from 95.7 million tons in 2015 to 177.6 million tons by 2025, surpassing the US's expected production of 116 million tons [3] - By September, Brazil accounted for 71.6% of China's soybean imports, while the US's share dropped to 22.8% [5] Group 2: Pricing Issues - Brazilian exporters raised soybean prices significantly, with prices at the Port of Paranaguá exceeding US prices by $66.1 per ton, marking a four-year high premium [9] - The price increase led to a situation where Chinese buyers decided to halt purchases, resulting in a complete stop of contracts for December and January [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Argentina has emerged as a viable alternative for China, signing a 1.3 million ton soybean order shortly after negotiations with Brazil broke down [12][14] - The rise of Argentina and other countries like Uruguay and Paraguay indicates a diversification of China's soybean supply sources, reducing reliance on Brazil [16] Group 4: Future Implications - Brazil's overconfidence and price gouging may lead to a loss of market trust, with predictions that a decline in Chinese orders could leave a surplus of unsold soybeans [16][20] - The situation serves as a warning to commodity exporters about the importance of maintaining fair pricing and stable supply relationships in international trade [18][20]