Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the RMB is experiencing upward pressure due to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a cooling U.S. economy, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB [1][2][3] - As of the third quarter, the RMB against the USD has shown a cumulative increase of 434 basis points, with a rise of 0.6% in the middle rate, 311 basis points in the onshore rate, and 139 basis points in the offshore rate [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable external environment, strong domestic equity market performance, and increased foreign capital inflow, which has improved market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The future outlook suggests that the RMB will maintain a stable trajectory, with "steady growth" and "two-way fluctuations" being the main themes of its exchange rate movement [1][4] - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include the Fed's interest rate cuts, ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, and China's proactive measures against external economic pressures [3][4] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, driven by the Fed's easing cycle, which is expected to channel funds into non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets and high-yield assets [6][7] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with significant developments in cross-border payment infrastructure and digital currency initiatives, marking a new phase in its global monetary role [7][8] - The RMB's position as the sixth most active currency in global payments, with a share of 2.93%, reflects its stable development in the international payment system [8] - The ongoing geopolitical economic risks are creating a strategic opportunity for the RMB's internationalization, as the trend of dollar dominance is expected to face long-term pressure [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that trade wars and tariff conflicts do not benefit either party and advocates for negotiations based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [3]. Group 1: Trade Relations - The Chinese side has not confirmed whether discussions on increasing imports of U.S. soybeans will take place during the U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]. - The spokesperson suggests that specific inquiries should be directed to the relevant Chinese authorities for detailed information [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a recent drop of 20 yuan/ton, while trading activity remains relatively high [1] Price Summary - As of September 16, 2025, soybean meal prices in Tianjin are reported at 3030 yuan/ton for 43% protein content, consistent across multiple traders [2] - The futures market shows the main soybean meal contract closing at 3041.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.33% [2] Shipping and Inventory Data - In the second week of September 2025, a total of 113.69 million tons of soybean meal were shipped, a decrease from 180.93 million tons in the same period last year, but with an average daily shipment increase of 31.95% [3] - As of September 12, major oil mills in the country hold 1.15 million tons of soybean meal in inventory, with expectations to reach around 1.20 million tons by the end of September [4] Market Analysis - According to a report from Jianxin Futures, China has not yet begun purchasing U.S. soybeans as the harvest season approaches, maintaining a 23% import tariff. The country is expected to rely on Brazilian soybeans as a primary substitute, with potential imports from Argentina, although a small import gap may still exist [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unfavorable USDA reports and potential trade changes, leading to a short-term outlook of low-level fluctuations [5]

General Information - Reported industry: Bean meal [1] - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Bean Meal Contracts**: The contract prices of domestic bean meal decreased. For example, the closing price of Bean Meal 2601 was 3042, down 45 or -1.46% from the previous settlement; Bean Meal 2509 closed at 2919, down 104 or -3.44%; and Bean Meal 2511 closed at 3013, down 44 or -1.44%. [6] - **Foreign Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1040 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may affect the export of CBOT soybeans and the supply of domestic bean meal. [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, due to the poor USDA September report and potential trade changes, there is a strong sentiment among bulls to leave the market and wait. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation. If there is no new news from the consultations this week, the futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise. [7] 2. Industry News - **USDA Report**: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels; the expected ending inventory was 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels. [7][10] - **Agricultural Rural Ministry Report**: In September, it was estimated that China's soybean imports in the 2024/2025 season would be 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous estimate, mainly due to improved oil - mill crushing profits. The soybean crushing volume was also adjusted upwards to 98.9 million tons. The supply - demand forecast for the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from the previous month. [10] - **USDA System Upgrade**: The US Department of Agriculture plans to launch an upgraded system for its export net sales report on October 23, and the first weekly sales report using the new system will be released on October 30. [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to bean meal, including the ex - factory price of bean meal, the basis of the Bean Meal 01 contract, the spread between Bean Meal 1 - 5, the spread between Bean Meal 5 - 9, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent talks between China and the United States in Madrid focused on economic issues, including TikTok, emphasizing mutual respect and constructive communication [2] Group 1 - The meeting was held in Madrid, Spain, involving representatives from both China and the United States [2] - The discussions aimed to implement the important consensus reached during the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders [2] - The talks were characterized by candid, in-depth, and constructive communication regarding economic issues of mutual concern [2]

Group 1: China-Africa Cooperation - The "Ten Partnership Actions" proposed by President Xi Jinping at the China-Africa Cooperation Forum in September 2024 have received high praise and broad response from African countries, indicating a strong direction for deepening practical cooperation between China and Africa [2][3] - In the first seven months of this year, China's imports from the least developed African countries reached $39.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, showcasing the growing trade ties and the entry of various African specialty products into the Chinese market [3] - Chinese enterprises are enhancing investment quality and efficiency in Africa through overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, contributing to the industrialization of Africa and increasing the local processing rate from 15% to 45% [3][4] Group 2: Inbound Consumption - The number of duty-free shops for outbound tax refunds has increased significantly, exceeding 7,200, reflecting a growing focus on inbound consumption as an important area for expansion [5][6] - In the first half of this year, over 19 million inbound foreign visitors were recorded, a 30% year-on-year increase, with tax refund sales growing by 95%, indicating a robust recovery in inbound consumption [6] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance the international consumption environment and promote various consumer activities to attract more foreign visitors and Chinese residents to experience shopping in China [6] Group 3: China-U.S. Trade Relations - China's trade negotiation representative, Li Chenggang, is set to visit Washington for discussions, emphasizing the importance of dialogue in maintaining healthy and stable China-U.S. trade relations [7] - The Ministry of Commerce is committed to supporting foreign trade enterprises in maintaining orders and expanding markets, focusing on policy support and assistance for enterprises facing various challenges [8] - Efforts will be made to help enterprises explore diversified international markets and utilize trade promotion activities effectively [8]

商务部于2025年8月28日（星期四）15时召开例行新闻发布会。商务部自贸区港建设协调司副司长、新 闻发言人何咏前出席，介绍相关情况并回答媒体提问。 以下为发布会文字实录 何咏前 各位记者朋友： 大家下午好，欢迎参加商务部例行新闻发布会。今天我没有需要向大家通报的信息。 下面请提问。 国际商报社记者 习近平主席在2024年9月中非合作论坛北京峰会上宣布"中非携手推进现代化十大伙伴行动"。请问峰会 召开一年来"十大伙伴行动"经贸举措落实情况如何？中非经贸合作呈现哪些新亮点？ 何咏前 2024年9月，习近平主席在中非合作论坛北京峰会上提出了"十大伙伴行动"，受到非洲国家高度评价和 广泛响应，为中非深化务实合作指明了方向，注入了新的动能。 一年来，我们同非洲伙伴一道，密切配合、互信同行，持续抓好"十大伙伴行动"落实，不断深化经贸领 域合作，共同应对复杂严峻国际环境，携手推进开放共赢的现代化。总的来看，当前中非经贸合作亮点 纷呈。 一是"贸易繁荣"推动双方往来更加密切。中方积极支持非洲最不发达国家用好100%税目产品零关税待 遇，签署共同发展经济伙伴关系框架协定，在中国国际进口博览会、中非经贸博览会等重大展会为中非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference on August 28 to discuss key recent activities in the business sector, highlighting ongoing international trade negotiations and cooperation with Canada and the United States [1] Group 1: International Trade Negotiations - The Ministry's international trade representative, Li Chenggang, led a delegation to Canada from August 24 to 27 to co-chair the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - Following the visit to Canada, Li Chenggang's team will meet with relevant U.S. officials in Washington [1] Group 2: China-U.S. Economic Relations - China expresses willingness to work with the U.S. to effectively utilize the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] - The focus is on resolving issues through equal dialogue and consultation to maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively engaging in trade negotiations with the United States, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and cooperation to maintain a healthy and stable economic relationship [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Chinese trade representative Li Chenggang visited Canada from August 24 to 27 to co-chair the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - Following the visit to Canada, Li Chenggang will meet with U.S. officials in Washington [1] - The Chinese side expresses willingness to work with the U.S. to utilize the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism for resolving issues through equal dialogue [1]