格隆汇11月20日｜商务部今日下午举行例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，目前，中方正 严格按照中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识做好相关落实工作。 ...

Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]

有消息称，近日，白宫称中国同意在11月和12月购买大约1200万吨美豆，并在接下来三年每年至少买 2500万吨美豆。 上述情况是否属实？何亚东表示，近日，商务部已就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排发布相关消息，介绍 了磋商达成的主要成果共识，其中包括农产品贸易。中国是全球农产品贸易的重要参与者，将继续秉持 开放合作的态度，与全球贸易伙伴持续深化互利合作，共同维护开放、稳定、可持续的全球贸易体系。 南都讯 记者杨文君 发自北京 11月13日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会，新闻发言人何亚东就中美大豆交 易问题进行了回应。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 11, 2025 - A-share market declined with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4002.76, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03% to 13289.01, and ChiNext Index down 1.40% to 3134.32. Trading volume was 19936 billion, a decrease of 1809 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4652.17, down 42.88 [2] - The weighted coke index closed at 1717.6, down 59.5; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1231.8 yuan, down 40.7 [2][3] - Palm oil futures rose 0.92% to 8770, with a high of 8850 and a low of 8678 [5] - Shanghai copper futures rose 0.35% to 86630 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore futures rose 0.2% to 763 yuan [5] - Asphalt futures rose 0.56% to 3050 yuan [5] - Rebar (rb2601) closed at 3025 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil (hc2601) at 3242 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina (ao2601) closed at 2816 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum (al2601) at 21665 yuan/ton [7] 2. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Terminal consumption is in the off-season, steel inventory pressure is increasing, and steel mills maintain a just-in-time procurement rhythm. However, rising coking costs have reduced coking profits, leading coke enterprises to push for a fourth price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [4] - Coking coal: Environmental restrictions in Wuhai are still strict, and coal mine production expansion is slow. Although Shanxi's overproduction governance is in the expected stage, actual production control measures have not significantly increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher. Analysts expect a 8.1% increase in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central-south region in the second half of October to 2942 million tons, and a 7.8% increase in sugar production to 192 million tons [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures adjusted due to technical factors after a sharp rise. As of November 9, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.18 million tons to 44.95 million tons, with a 0.40% increase. Bonded warehouse inventory decreased by 0.74% to 6.78 million tons, and general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 38.17 million tons [4] Palm Oil - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and production decreased by 2.16% [5] Shanghai Copper - Supply shortages in mines and strong Chinese terminal consumption support copper prices. The price is oscillating at a high level due to macro - sentiment, with a bullish technical pattern [5] Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract on the night of November 11 was 13535 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 325 lots. On November 10, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.15 - 6.35 yuan/kg [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Due to increased steel mill losses and maintenance, pig iron production has declined for 5 consecutive periods. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillating trend [5] Asphalt - Asphalt production capacity utilization decreased, and inventory continued to decline. With weak terminal demand due to cold weather, the price is oscillating [5] Steel - Seasonal off - season and a weak real estate market have led to weak steel demand in November. As steel mill losses increase, maintenance and production cuts are intensifying. Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [6] Alumina - Supply has not seen large - scale production cuts, and new capacity is expected. Although trade and electrolytic aluminum procurement support the spot price, the current fundamentals lack positive factors. The price is undervalued [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Winter environmental protection may affect some enterprises' operations, but production changes are expected to be small. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in November. High - level price oscillations, environmental restrictions, and weak demand will limit price increases [7]

商务部新闻发言人就美方暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则答记者问。 美东时间11月10日，美国商务部产业与安全局在《联邦纪事》上发布公告，宣布暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则一年。 对此，商务部新闻发言人表示，中方注意到，美方宣布于2025年11月10日至2026年11月9日暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则， 即在此期间，被列入美国出口管制"实体清单"等制裁清单的企业，其持股超过50%的关联企业将不会因穿透性规则被追加 同等出口管制制裁。这是美方落实中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识的重要举措。对于暂停一年后的安排，双方还将会继续讨论。 一、美方将取消针对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品 （包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。中方将相应调整针对美方上述关税 的反制措施。双方同意继续延长部分关税排除措施。 二、美方将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则一年。中方将暂停实施10月9日公布的相关出口管制等措施 一年，并将研究细化具体方案。 三、美方将暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年。美方暂停实施相关措施后，中方也将相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced a suspension of the Section 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding industry, effective November 10, for one year, indicating a step towards mutual cooperation between the U.S. and China in trade relations [1] Group 1: U.S. Actions - The U.S. will suspend the imposition of port fees on relevant Chinese ships and will also halt additional tariffs on Chinese shore cranes and other equipment [1] - This suspension is part of the efforts to implement the consensus reached during the U.S.-China economic consultations in Kuala Lumpur [1] Group 2: China's Response - China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged the U.S. announcement and stated that it will also suspend related countermeasures [1] - China expressed willingness to engage in communication and negotiation with the U.S. based on mutual respect and equal consultation [1] Group 3: Market Implications - Both countries aim to maintain a fair competitive environment in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets, which could enhance stability and certainty in U.S.-China economic cooperation and the global economy [1]

Core Points - The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced the suspension of certain maritime and shipping industry measures against the U.S. starting from November 10, 2025, as part of the consensus reached during the 2025 China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The suspension includes the final measures of the 301 investigation related to China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1] - The suspension will also affect the special port service fees imposed on U.S. vessels and related implementation measures [1] - The investigation into the impact on the shipping, shipbuilding, and related supply chain industries will be paused for one year [1]

（原标题：商务部就美方暂停实施对华造船等行业301调查措施答问） 有记者问：美东时间11月9日，美国贸易代表办公室发布公告，宣布将于11月10日暂停实施对华造船等 行业301调查措施。请问商务部对此有何评价？ 答：中方注意到，美方于当地时间11月9日发布公告，宣布将于11月10日0时01分暂停实施对华造船等行 业301调查措施一年，具体包括暂停对相关中国船舶征收港口费、暂停对中国船岸起重机等设备加征关 税等。这是美方与中方相向而行、共同落实中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识的重要一步。同日，中方也相应暂 停实施相关反制措施。 中方愿本着相互尊重、平等协商的原则与美方就相关问题进行沟通磋商，并期待美方继续与中方相向而 行，共同维护国际航运和造船市场的公平竞争环境，为中美经贸合作和世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定 性。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain strong. However, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Sino - US games and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the marginal decline in the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose monetary cycle [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: Early in the week, market sentiment was relatively stable, with the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showing mixed gains and losses and small fluctuations. On Thursday and Friday, the market was weaker, and contracts of all maturities generally closed down. In general, long - term contracts (such as 30 - year and 10 - year) performed slightly weaker than short - term contracts [4]. - **Incremental Information**: In October 2025, the central bank resumed open - market operations of buying and selling Treasury bonds, achieving a net investment of 20 billion yuan, which increased market demand and smoothed market fluctuations. To address the liquidity gap of about 2 trillion yuan in November, the central bank conducted equivalent roll - overs of 70 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements and may increase the roll - over of 6 - month repurchase agreements. In October 2025, in US dollar terms, exports were $305.353 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; imports were $215.279 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% with a growth slowdown of 6.4 percentage points compared to September and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%; the trade surplus was $90.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the surplus was lower than market expectations [4]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), reverse repurchase rates, capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), R007&DR007 trading volume and spreads, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, excess reserve ratios, LPR, deposit reserve ratios, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][11][13]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The content shows various charts of Treasury bond futures arbitrage indicators, including basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][45][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is weak and volatile [3]. Core Viewpoint - Crude oil prices have dropped from short - term highs, and asphalt has continued to decline due to poor fundamentals. The supply and demand of asphalt in China have both declined this week. The overall inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the cost is influenced by the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the production plan of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The planned output of domestic asphalt refineries in November 2025 was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons. This week, both supply and demand of domestic asphalt declined. The decline in supply was mainly due to the active reduction of production capacity by some refineries and the suspension of production in some others [3]. - **Demand**: Affected by the capital situation and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China were sluggish. The demand in the north gradually stopped, and the downstream demand in the south increased and decreased intermittently. The overall demand declined. This week's total shipment volume was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the industry's shipment volume will further decline next week [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the factory and warehouse inventories in various regions of China showed a mixed trend of increase and decrease, and the overall inventory continued to be destocked. The destocking performance in East China was particularly prominent [3]. - **Cost**: At the beginning of this week, international oil prices rose slightly for three consecutive days due to multiple positive factors. In the later part of the week, oil prices fell for two consecutive days due to concerns about interest rate cuts, rising risk - aversion sentiment, and other factors. Overall, the oil price at the end of this week dropped compared with last week, and the average price this week also decreased compared with last week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is weak and volatile. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is weak and volatile, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3]. 2. Price - The document provides the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China) from 2025/01 to 2025/11 [5]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The document shows the asphalt crack spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [15]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in main regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024/01 to 2025/10 [16]. 4. Supply - **Production Plan Expectation**: It shows the monthly production plan and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in North China, South China, Shandong, and East China in different years [19][23][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It provides the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][35][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt production in China from 2018 to 2025 [42]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It provides the price, premium/discount, port inventory in China and Shandong of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [49][50]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [54][57]. - **Social Inventory**: It presents the social inventory in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [63]. - **Downstream开工率**: It provides the开工率 of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [66][67][69]. - **Modified Asphalt开工率**: It shows the开工率 of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [72].