据哥伦比亚Portafolio网站7月30日报道，2025年1至5月哥农业贸易顺差达 24.89亿美元，同比增长145.2%。同期农产品进口额累计达42.29亿美元，同比 增长7%，增幅主要受玉米、大豆油和猪肉进口增长推动。 （原标题：哥伦比亚实现农业贸易顺差） ...

图为特朗普 让印度更不舒服的就是，就在同一天，特朗普再次积极评价了中美贸易谈判，而且表示美国会和中国"并肩前行"，认为双方会达成"公平的贸易协议"。 根据中美此前协商的结果，两国贸易战的休战期到8月12日结束。不过从现在的局面来看，即便双方如果在这之前不能达成新的协议，休战期也会进一步延 长，短期内中美贸易战硝烟再起的可能性不大。 这种对比让印度产生了很大的落差。我们知道，正是在特朗普第一任期的时候，美国提出了所谓"印太"战略，印度作为其中一个重要支点，其在美国对外战 略布局中的重要性得到了极大的抬升。尤其是，特朗普还推动了四方安全对话的"复活"，举办了十年来第一次四国高官会晤。 现在特朗普为什么会翻脸不认人？就贸易问题本身来看，特朗普确实被印度惹恼了。几个月以来，印美举行了多轮会谈，但始终处于僵局之中，特别是在美 国农产品的出口上。印度国内的农业就业人口超过45%，一旦打开市场，让美国的转基因大豆、小麦进入印度，印度国内数亿小农户的就业和收入就会受到 冲击，很可能会引发新一轮的农民抗争，印度国内又要乱。 图为特朗普和莫迪 美国已经和欧盟、日本、印尼等国家达成了贸易协定，这让特朗普越来越有底气。7月30日，他 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information on factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic news. Additionally, it details the capital flow in the futures market and conducts arbitrage tracking [1][2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts, such as BMD's October palm oil, ICE's October Brent crude, and NYMEX's September US crude oil, are presented. For example, BMD's October palm oil closed at 4259.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.54% and an overnight decrease of 0.42% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are provided. For instance, the US dollar index was at 99.94, with an increase of 1.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of various futures contracts, such as DCE's 2509 palm oil, 2509 soybean oil, and 2509 soybean meal, are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9110, with a basis of 130 and a basis change of 0 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions in Producing Areas - **US Soybean Producing States**: The future weather outlook from August 4th to 8th shows that the temperature in the main soybean - producing states is high, and the precipitation in the northwest is higher than the average. The temperature in the Midwest planting belt is expected to drop, and the growth conditions are still relatively favorable [5][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year, from 6.1 million tons in the same period last year to 9.3 million tons [9]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending July 24th, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 90 million tons, with 10 - 30 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 10 - 60 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of July 23rd, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 2743.16 million tons, and 4.3 million tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 48.95 million tons [11]. - **Ukrainian Rapeseed**: As of July 25th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested about 100 million tons of rapeseed, lower than 330 million tons in the same period last year. The market has revised down the 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 240 - 250 million tons [12]. - **Baltic Dry Index**: On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week low, due to a decline in demand for all ship types [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On July 30th, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 102,566 tons, a 108% increase from the previous trading day. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.05 million tons from the previous day [14]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities) from July 21st to July 25th, 2025, was 18.73 yuan per kilogram, a 2.2% week - on - week decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year decrease [14]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 54.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.7%. US economic data such as ADP employment, GDP, and PCE price index are also presented [17]. - **FOMC Statement**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two governors advocating for a rate cut [18]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The Eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate is 1.4%, and the industrial and economic sentiment indices in July are - 10.4 and 95.8 respectively [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On July 30th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1441, down 70 points. The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [21]. - **Housing Loan Interest Rate**: In the second quarter of 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China was 3.09% [21]. 3.5 Capital Flow On July 30th, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 18.187 billion yuan, with 6.098 billion yuan in commodity futures (including 205 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 5.324 billion yuan in chemical futures, 131 million yuan in black - series futures, and 439 million yuan in metal futures) and 12.089 billion yuan in stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no detailed information on arbitrage tracking in the provided content.

Core Viewpoint - President Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on Indian products exported to the U.S., citing high tariffs and strict non-tariff barriers from India as reasons for the trade imbalance [1] Trade Relations - The U.S. and India have engaged in multiple rounds of trade negotiations to address contentious issues, particularly concerning U.S. agricultural products and dairy market access [1] - Despite some progress in negotiations, Indian officials have resisted opening their domestic market to imports of wheat, corn, rice, and genetically modified soybeans, arguing that these imports threaten the livelihoods of millions of Indian farmers [1] Economic Impact - The anticipated new tariffs are expected to affect India's exports to the U.S., where the current trade deficit for the U.S. with India stands at $45.7 billion [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].

Group 1: Report Core View - Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to reach 1,205 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 1,211 million tons, and the July soybean meal exports are expected to reach 213 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 240 million tons [1] - Argentina will resume soybean and by - product exports once the government officially implements the weekend - announced policy of reducing withholding tax. The soybean export withholding tax rate will be reduced from 33% to 26%, and that of soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [1] - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in June 2025 was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase and an 8.86% year - on - year increase. Rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase and a 13.32% year - on - year increase [1] - The EU and Indonesia have reached an agreement. The EU will reduce the tax on Indonesian palm oil to 0% under the yet - to - be - signed CEPA, with a quota system. Any palm oil exceeding the quota will face a 3% tariff [1] Group 2: Spot Price - From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu showed different fluctuations [4] Group 3: Other Information - There are data on oilseeds basis, oilseeds and fats price spreads, and protein meal basis, but no specific data content is provided [7][8][12]

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].

红星新闻网（记者 宋雅婷）7月29日报道为深度推进区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP），全面落实省市关于攻坚突围外贸、推动"蓉品出川出海"及"成都 造"产业出海的重要部署，持续增强"三中心一基地"城市核心功能，一场聚焦国际农产品贸易合作的盛会 ——"2025国际农产品合作活动（马来西亚、泰 国）"将于7月29日至8月1日举行。 此次活动由成都市商务局主办，活动将组织成都企业走进马来西亚和泰国，通过参加国际展会、举办推介会、开展商贸对接等多种形式，架起成都与东南亚 国家农产品贸易的新桥梁，助力企业拓展国际市场，深化与东南亚主要经济体的经贸往来，全力 "抢"下更多国际订单。 "专精特新"蓉企展会亮绝活 "成都造"尖货国际圈粉 作为本次活动的重要组成部分，成都将组织一支由农产品、生鲜、食品、调味品等领域优质企业组成的展团，集体亮相于7月30日至8月1日在吉隆坡举行的 "马来西亚国际食品饮料展览会（MIFB）"。该展会是东南亚地区规模最大、辐射最广的食品饮料贸易展览会，是东盟及中东地区的重要采购平台。 成都展团将设立专属展厅，集中展示 "成都造" 优势出口商品，向全球采购商展现 "蓉品" 的独特魅力。此次参展旨在帮助 ...

Core Insights - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center is organizing a dual-price bidding event for domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a total of 40,302 tons available for trading [1] Group 1 - The event will focus on the purchase and sale of domestic soybeans, indicating a strategic move to enhance local agricultural commodity trading [1] - The dual-price bidding format suggests a competitive environment aimed at optimizing pricing and supply chain efficiency for domestic soybeans [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The planting of US corn is completed, and it is currently in a weak state. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices have continued to decline. However, as weather factors are likely to be speculated on later, the downward space for US corn is limited. China has restored a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in August is 2,001 yuan. [3] - The flat - hatch price of ports in the north is stable, around 2,320 yuan. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has risen. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is stable. The wheat price in North China is stable, around 2,450 yuan/ton. The price difference between wheat and corn is small, and wheat substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned successively, making the corn spot price weak. The inventory of corn traders in North China is still low, and some feed enterprises will stock up in August. It is expected that the supply of corn in North China will still be tight. It is estimated that the short - term support for North China corn is strong around 2,400 yuan/ton, and around 2,220 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. [3][5] - The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is strong. The starch price in Shandong is basically around 2,860 yuan, and the starch spot price in the Northeast is also stable. This week, the inventory of corn starch has increased. The manufacturer's inventory this week is 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. At present, the starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stockpiling. The average income from by - products in the past few years has basically been over 600 yuan. Today, the contribution of by - products in Shandong is 627 yuan (662 yuan in Heilongjiang). Recently, the by - product price has been strong, higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is low. North China corn is stable in the short term, while Northeast corn is relatively weak. In the long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market Data**: On July 29, 2025, for different corn and corn starch futures contracts, there were fluctuations in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2,215, down 11 points or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 81,555 (down 2.80%) and an open interest of 213,252 (up 10.23%). [2] - **Spot Market Data**: The current prices and price changes of corn and corn starch in different regions are provided. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,270 yuan, with no change; the current price of starch in Longfeng is 2,850 yuan, with no change. [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, are presented. For example, the basis of C2601 is - 32, and the spread of C01 - C05 is - 48, down 3 points. [2][4] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The planting of US corn is completed, and it is in a weak state. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices continue to decline. However, the downward space is limited due to potential weather speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. North China corn may be in short supply in the short term, while the overall domestic corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term but weak due to imported corn auctions. [3][5] - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stockpiling. The inventory has increased this week. The by - product price is strong. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises may face long - term losses. The short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The domestic 09 corn contract will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Buy the spot and short the 09 corn contract in a rolling manner, and wait and see the price spread between 09 corn and starch. [8] 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contracts, the price spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, etc., providing visual data support for market analysis. [12][14][18]