Core Insights - A recent informal survey of bond underwriters indicates that there are no potential borrowers considering issuing new U.S. investment-grade bonds, suggesting that the primary market for this week is likely closed [1] - In June, syndicates issued $109.5 billion in new bonds, slightly exceeding the expected $105 billion, with strong performance in the latter half of the month and robust returns [1] - Despite increasing geopolitical risks, investor demand remained strong, leading to continued bond purchases, with U.S. high-grade bonds rising and achieving the second-best monthly return of the year, pushing year-to-date gains above 4% [1]

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]

Market Overview - As of June 30, the bond market showed slight weakness influenced by PMI data, cross-quarter funding, and stock market performance, continuing a narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Overall, the yield on government bonds is expected to rise initially and then decline in the first half of 2025, with credit spreads mostly narrowing [1] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with a decrease in funding prices compared to June, where the average decline of DR007 is about 10 basis points [1] Bond Issuance - By June 30, the total issuance of various bonds reached 27.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 24%, with government bonds accounting for 16.93 trillion yuan and credit bonds 10.35 trillion yuan [2] - In the first half of 2025, 98 government bonds were issued, a decrease of 8 from the previous year, with the issuance scale increasing by over 2 trillion yuan [4] - Local government bonds saw an increase in issuance, with 1,086 bonds issued, up 310 from the previous year, and the average issuance rate down by approximately 55 basis points [6] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of cash bonds in the market was 166.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, with credit bonds accounting for 39.63 trillion yuan [16] - The trading volume of interest rate bonds also decreased, with a total of 124.29 trillion yuan traded, down 6.49% year-on-year [17] Yield Trends - The yield curve for government bonds showed an overall decline in the first half of 2025, with significant decreases in the medium to long end, such as a 55.89 basis point drop in the 10-year yield [19] - Local government bonds exhibited similar trends, with the 10-year yield down by 55.51 basis points [21] Institutional Insights - Institutions expect that the funding rates will remain loose in July, but the issuance of local special bonds may create some disturbances in the funding environment [29] - The basic economic trends are still favorable for the bond market, with internal demand needing improvement and external demand facing challenges [30]

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond is influenced primarily by policy interest rates and economic cycles, benefiting from the current downward trend in interest rates [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by a structural transformation, with the economy gradually moving from a peak in 2021 to a bottoming phase, indicating weak demand [1] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further easing signals, which is favorable for bond assets, particularly in the third quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is the only product tracking the Shanghai Composite Ten-Year Government Bond Index, consisting of bonds with maturities between seven to ten years [2] - The credit rating of government bonds is high, resulting in relatively low default risk, and the ETF's holdings are transparent, minimizing style drift risk [2] - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) supports T+0 trading, enhancing liquidity for investors [2]

Market Overview - The bond market in China continued to show a warming trend, with major interbank interest rate bond yields mostly declining by 0.5 basis points, and government bond futures closing higher across the board [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a supportive stance on liquidity, ensuring that the funding situation remains stable as the end of the quarter approaches [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.17% to 120.890, the 10-year main contract up by 0.09% to 109.045, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.10% to 106.265 [2] - The yields on various bonds showed mixed performance, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.8505%, while the 2-year government bond yield fell by 1.5 basis points to 1.3550% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 6.74 basis points to 3.711% and the 10-year yield down by 5.09 basis points to 4.240% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 1.451% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 3.245%, while the German bond yield rose by 0.3 basis points to 2.566% [4] Liquidity and Funding - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 525.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 364.7 billion yuan for the day [5] - The total net injection by the PBOC for the week reached 1.2672 trillion yuan, indicating a significant liquidity support [5] Economic Fundamentals - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state-owned and controlled enterprises in China was 3.280625 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while total profits fell by 2.8% to 165.145 billion yuan [6] - In May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, with mining profits down by 29.0% and manufacturing profits up by 5.4% [7] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a significant deviation in the allocation of active equity products, with an overweight in stocks and underweight in bonds, which may lead to performance risks [8] - Zhongyou Fixed Income highlighted a surprising increase in demand for ultra-long credit bonds, driven by public offerings and insurance funds, suggesting a more optimistic short-term outlook for these bonds [8]

Group 1 - Guangdong issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 56.5559 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, with a marginal multiple of 54.17 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued 7-year other special local bonds with a scale of 78.5000 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.6400%, with a marginal multiple of 1.30 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.65 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery with government bond futures mostly flat, while interbank bond yields fell by approximately 1 basis point, indicating a cautious trading environment as the end of the quarter approaches [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly flat, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.10% at 120.720, while the 10-year main contract fell by 0.02% to 108.950 [2]. - Major interbank bond yields declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 1.5 basis points to 1.849%, and the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.7175% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 4.02 basis points to 3.7786% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year French, German, Italian, and Spanish bond yields increased slightly, indicating mixed trends in the European bond market [3]. Primary Market Activity - Heilongjiang Province's local bonds saw high bid-to-cover ratios, with the 3-year bond receiving a bid multiple of 19.51 and the 5-year bond at 22.85, reflecting strong demand [4]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 5,093 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 3,058 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The overall liquidity in the market remains stable, with slight declines in overnight and seven-day repo rates, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [5]. Institutional Insights - Zhongyou Fixed Income noted a surprising increase in demand for ultra-long credit bonds, driven by public offerings and insurance funds, suggesting a positive short-term outlook for this segment [6]. - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current bond market may continue to experience a range-bound pattern due to the absence of key variables, with potential for both upward and downward breaks depending on fundamental and policy adjustments [6].

黑龙江发行3年期乡村专项地方债，规模1.2300亿元，发行利率1.4500%，边际倍数3.50倍，倍数预期 1.46。 ...

北京发行3年期其他专项地方债，规模176.2800亿元，发行利率1.4500%，边际倍数1.59倍，倍数预期 1.45。 ...

As stated in paragraph 6 in General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds, the Government Debt Management offered the equivalent of 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction 20. June, at the price of accepted bids. SeriesRIKB 28 1115RIKB 38 0215ISINIS0000028249IS0000037265Additional issuance (nominal)275,000,000102,000,000Settlement date06/25/202506/25/2025Total outstanding (nominal)124,037,301,51931,113,000,000 ...