Chart of the Week:  Outbound Tender Volume Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA, OTRI.USA The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) — which measures truckload demand — hit an all-time low for the month of October last week, registering a value of 9,311. This places the index roughly 19% lower than last year and 15% below 2023 for the same period. Normally, a collapse of this magnitude would trigger a corresponding drop in tender rejections and spot rates. However, nearly the ...

Trade Relations - Canada initiates anti-dumping investigation into truck body imports from China [1] - This investigation occurs amidst efforts to ease trade tensions with China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. has experienced a significant decline in net income, leading to a negative investor sentiment and a continued losing streak in its stock performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Knight-Swift's net income dropped to $7.86 million from $30.46 million, marking a 74.2% decrease [1][2]. - Total revenues increased by 2.7% year-on-year, rising to $1.93 billion from $1.88 billion [2]. Impairment and Costs - The current quarter included $34.8 million in impairment charges and a loss contingency of $11.2 million related to exiting the third-party carrier insurance business in 2024 [3]. - Additionally, there were $12 million in higher insurance and claims costs at US Xpress, primarily due to the settlement of two large auto liability claims [3]. Industry Context - The trucking industry is facing an oversupply of capacity, although volumes in the truckload business have remained stable [4]. - The CEO of Knight-Swift indicated a focus on cost reduction and high service levels to support customers amid these challenges [4]. Future Outlook - The CEO mentioned potential catalysts that could accelerate the exit of excess capacity in the market, including stricter enforcement of language proficiency requirements and enhanced qualifications for non-domiciled Commercial Driver's Licenses [5].

Core Insights - Marten Transport's Truckload segment experienced a negative operating ratio for the third time in five quarters, contributing less than 48% to the company's earnings in Q3 [1][3] - The company reported a decline in average revenue per tractor and total miles, indicating weaker performance in the Truckload segment [3] - Improvements in the Dedicated segment helped maintain overall profitability, with a better operating ratio compared to the previous year [4] Financial Performance - Marten's net income fell by 40.7% to $2.226 million in Q3, with a year-to-date decline of 13.4% to $13.74 million [7] - The overall operating ratio net of fuel for the quarter was 98.6%, slightly worse than 97.9% a year ago [7] Segment Analysis - The Truckload segment's operating ratio net of fuel was the worst in five quarters, with figures of 100.2%, 98%, 100.3%, 97.5%, and 102.2% over the last five quarters [2][3] - The Dedicated segment recorded an operating ratio of 94%, an improvement from 95.1% a year earlier, despite a drop in total miles [4] - Marten's intermodal division was sold to Hub Group, with the segment's operating ratio improving from 112.5% to 103.5% year-over-year [5][6] Revenue Insights - The intermodal segment generated $9.85 million in revenue for Q3, accounting for about 4% of total revenue [6] - The brokerage division's operating ratio weakened to 95.9%, with an 8.3% decrease in the number of loads handled [6]

Core Insights - The American trucking industry is currently facing significant challenges due to an economic crisis and declining highway safety standards [1] - The narrative of a truck driver shortage has been largely misrepresented, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic [1][2] Background on Truck Driver Shortage - The American Truck Association (ATA) has promoted the idea of a chronic truck driver shortage, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to policy changes aimed at increasing the driver workforce [2] - These policy changes included lowering standards for commercial driver's license (CDL) qualifications and relaxing training requirements [2] Safety Consequences - Regulatory changes resulted in an influx of inadequately trained drivers, many lacking proper knowledge of road regulations and language skills, creating safety risks on highways [3] - The presence of inexperienced drivers operating older, poorly maintained vehicles has become more common, leading to deteriorating safety standards [4] Economic Impact - The trucking industry is experiencing the "Great Freight Recession," the most severe economic downturn in its history, exacerbated by an influx of cheaper labor [5] - As economic pressures increased, carriers began hiring drivers willing to work for lower wages, leading to a competitive disadvantage and further industry-wide issues [6]

Financial Performance & Market Conditions - Marten Transport's earnings are pressured by the freight market recession's oversupply and weak demand, along with inflationary operating costs and freight rate reductions[10] - Operating revenue decreased by 7.1% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[13] - Net income decreased by 40.7% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[13] - The company's operating ratio net of fuel surcharges was 97.9% in Q3 2025[55] Strategic Initiatives & Business Segments - Marten sold its intermodal business to Hub Group, Inc for $51.8 million in cash, effective September 30, 2025, to focus on core operations[6] - Dedicated and brokerage operations significantly contributed to the company's total operating income in 2024 and Q3 YTD 2025[24, 27] - Marten de Mexico's operating revenue was $41.3 million for Q3 YTD 2025, compared to $48.6 million for Q3 YTD 2024 (excluding fuel surcharges)[33] Investments & Operational Improvements - The cost of tractors increased by 17% and refrigerated trailers by 30% in 2025 compared to 2021[41] - The company is investing in safety technology enhancements like collision avoidance, blind spot detection, and lane departure systems[43] - Marten is implementing renewable energy projects, with 18 projects across its national network, generating 3 million kWh annually and offsetting 2,125 metric tons of CO2[44]

Core Insights - The trucking market is experiencing significant changes, with a prolonged downturn nearing an inflection point as smaller carriers exit the market due to regulatory and insurance pressures [1][2] Financial Performance - Covenant Logistics Group reported third-quarter revenue of $296.9 million, with adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share, down from $0.54 in Q3 2024 [2] - The truckload segment's operating income fell to $9.2 million from $23.1 million a year earlier, impacted by rising insurance, wages, and maintenance costs [3] Market Dynamics - The exit of small carriers is tightening freight capacity in regional markets, although national spot rates have not yet responded [2] - Freight revenue per total mile increased by 5% year-over-year, but lower utilization led to a decline in overall efficiency [4] - The expedited segment's freight revenue decreased by 9% year-over-year to $80.2 million, while dedicated operations grew by 11% year-over-year to $91.6 million, driven by new contracts in the protein supply chain [4] Industry Outlook - The brokerage division is experiencing margin compression due to enforcement actions and equipment under-utilization, but this may benefit asset carriers as rates are expected to rise [5] - The company is delaying new truck purchases due to uncertainty over tariffs on imported heavy-duty trucks and components, despite having a healthy fleet and balance sheet [5] - Carrier sentiment at the upcoming American Trucking Associations' annual conference is expected to reflect cautious optimism, with a belief that current regulatory and inflationary pressures will lead to future gains [6]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Northern Superior's shareholders will receive 0.0991 of an Iamgold share and 19 cents in cash for each common share, valuing Northern Superior at $2.05 per share based on Iamgold's closing price on October 17 [1] - Iamgold will acquire Mines D'Or Orbec Inc. in a stock-and-cash deal valued at $17.2 million, with Orbec shareholders receiving 6.25 cents and 0.003466 of an Iamgold share for each share held, equating to 12.5 cents per share [2] Teck Resources - Teck Resources is in discussions with Canadian regulators regarding its proposed merger with Anglo American, with the CEO expressing satisfaction with the progress of these talks [4][5] - The merger aims to create a $70 billion copper mining powerhouse, with headquarters in Vancouver, and is described as a "merger of equals" despite Anglo American's higher valuation [7] - Teck and Anglo American have committed approximately $4.5 billion in spending in Canada over five years as part of the merger agreement [8] Financial Performance - Teck Resources reported a profit of $281 million or 57 cents per diluted share for the third quarter, a significant recovery from a loss of $748 million or $1.45 per diluted share in the same quarter last year [9][11] - Revenue for Teck in the latest quarter was $3.39 billion, up from $2.86 billion in the same quarter last year [11][12] - Mullen Group Ltd. reported a profit of $33.2 million or 36 cents per diluted share for the third quarter, down from $38.3 million or 41 cents per diluted share a year earlier, despite revenue increasing to $561.8 million from $532 million [15][16][17] Wealthsimple - Wealthsimple Inc. announced that its assets under administration have reached $100 billion, doubling from the previous year, achieving its target ahead of the 2028 goal set in 2023 [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated freight revenue increased by 4%, or approximately $10.2 million, to $268.9 million year-over-year [3] - Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 22.5% to $15 million, primarily due to increases in the truckload segment [3] - Net indebtedness increased by $48.6 million to $268.3 million compared to December 31, 2024, yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.1 times and a debt-to-capital ratio of 38.8% [3] - Adjusted return on average invested capital was 6.9% versus 8.1% in the prior year [3] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The expedited segment yielded a 93.6% adjusted operating ratio, which is an increase of 160 basis points compared to the prior year [4] - The dedicated segment's adjusted operating ratio was 94.7%, falling short of both the prior year and long-term expectations [5] - Managed freight exceeded both revenue and adjusted operating income compared to the prior year but fell sequentially due to the loss of a short-term customer [5] - The warehousing segment experienced slightly below prior year freight revenue and adjusted operating income, yielding an adjusted operating ratio of 92.1% [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average fleet size in the expedited segment shrunk by 31 units, or 3.4%, to 861 average tractors [4] - The company anticipates a challenging fourth quarter due to a soft freight market and company-specific factors [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to improve margins through rate increases, exiting less profitable business, and adding more profitable business [4] - The strategy includes growing and diversifying the managed freight segment, with an acceptable return in capital expected from mid-single digit operating margins [7] - The company is focused on investing in areas that provide value-added services for customers while reducing exposure to commoditized end markets [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued challenges in the fourth quarter due to a soft freight market and specific issues such as increased claims accruals and the impact of the U.S. government shutdown [8][9] - There is optimism about the pace of recovery in the freight market, driven by government policies and consumer demand improvements [9] - Management expressed excitement about the potential for rate increases after four years of stagnation, with bids up 17% since August [23] Other Important Information - The company has been managing costs effectively, with a focus on matching headcount to freight volumes and controlling overhead [74] - There is a cautious approach to fleet expansion due to uncertainty in truck pricing and tariffs [50][52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on market capacity and its impact - Management discussed the challenges in the market regarding capacity exits and the lack of impact on national spot rates despite tighter local markets [12][13] Question: Impact of government shutdown on Department of Defense business - Management indicated that about half of the Department of Defense business would be lost during the shutdown, with a partial recovery expected once operations resume [61][62] Question: Expectations for pricing and bid activity - Management noted that low single-digit rate increases are being discussed with customers, reflecting inflationary pressures [48] Question: Share repurchase strategy - Management acknowledged the potential for share repurchases but emphasized a cautious approach given the current market environment [83]

Core Insights - Ryder System reported total revenue of $3.17 billion, showing a slight increase from $3.168 billion a year ago, while non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $3.57 from $3.44 [1] Revenue Performance - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) experienced a 10% decline in revenue to $570 million, reflecting challenges in the trucking market [2] - DTS revenue decreased sequentially from $606 million in the second quarter, which was down from $635 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] - Fleet Management Solutions saw a minor revenue drop of $5 million year-on-year, but earnings before taxes increased by 11% to $146 million [5] - Supply Chain Solutions achieved the highest revenue growth among the divisions, with a 5% increase to $1.38 billion, although earnings before taxes fell by 8% to $86 million [6] Operational Insights - Ryder's CEO noted that benefits from strong operating performance and acquisition synergies in DTS were offset by fleet reductions due to weaker freight market conditions [4] - Used vehicle pricing for tractors and trucks decreased by 6% and 15%, respectively, compared to the second quarter of 2024, although tractor pricing remained unchanged sequentially and truck pricing increased by 7% [7] Cost Management - Fuel expenses decreased significantly from $116 million a year ago to $94 million in the second quarter of 2025, providing a positive impact on Ryder's financials [8] - The company adjusted its fiscal non-GAAP EPS forecast to a range of $12.85-$13.05, slightly down from the previous range of $12.85-$13.30, while most other forecast numbers remained unchanged [8]