最近监管部门调整了融资买入的保证金要求，从原来的80%提到了100%。身边不少人都在问，这个调整会不会影响市场走向？其实我一直觉得，单一政策 只是市场波动的诱因，真正决定走势的，还是参与交易的机构大资金的真实行为。这也是我这么多年一直依赖量化大数据的原因，毕竟能看透表面之下的真 实动向，才是关键。 一、别被表面走势带偏 我发现很多人选标的时，总爱盯着之前的高点看，觉得那是过不去的坎。就拿之前遇到的一只标的来说，很长一段时间里股价都卡在同一个高点下，两次接 近都冲高回落，换做是你，肯定也不敢轻易出手，生怕又吃套。 但实际结果往往和直觉相反，后来股价直接突破了那个所谓的天花板。回头看才明白，这背后是机构大资金在积极参与交易，只是当时没看明白而已。 现在我都会用量化大数据里的「机构库存」数据来判断，这个数据反映的是机构资金交易的活跃程度，橙色柱体越活跃，说明参与的机构资金越多、时间越 长。看图1就能清楚看到，突破前的那段震荡里，「机构库存」已经开始活跃，和之前的走势形成了明显对比，这就是关键信号。 其实现在的量化技术已经能捕捉到机构的交易行为，因为很多机构交易都趋于范式化，程序可以通过大数据挖掘出这些特征，不用再靠 ...

特朗普自从回到白宫快一年了，虽然口号依旧响亮，但其政策比上任时更加激进，尤其是在国际事务中。结果却出乎意料，美国并没有实现再次伟大的目 标，反而让世界变得更加动荡。讽刺的是，特朗普一系列的动作并未使美国受益，反而让他最为敌视的中国，悄然从中受益。 最近，最引人注目的动态发生在北京，而非华盛顿。加拿大总理卡尼在访华的第三天，突然宣布取消对中国电动汽车的100%惩罚性关税。这不仅仅是个技 术性调整，更是一次方向性的大转变。过去加拿大坚定跟随美国，对中国采取强硬立场，但如今，这一政策已被按下暂停键。更引人深思的，是卡尼在公开 场合反复提到的一句话：中国更稳定，也更可预测。这句话的分量，足以让国际政治格局产生波动。为什么加拿大会突然转向？答案并不是立场发生了改 变，而是现实的压力迫使其做出调整。之前那轮加税政策的后果非常明显：中加关系迅速恶化，农业出口受挫，新能源产业链受阻，消费者则不得不为高昂 的价格买单。加拿大并没有因此获得额外的安全保障，反而付出了巨大的经济代价。相比之下，中国的反制措施明确、有限且可预期，谈判的大门始终敞 开。只要回归规则，问题就能得到解决。这一切的关键在于——稳定与可预测性，已成为许多国家重 ...

羊城晚报讯 1月16日至17日，海南省党政代表团来粤考察交流。16日上午，两省在广州召开合作交流座 谈会，就共同学习好贯彻好习近平总书记在听取海南自由贸易港建设工作汇报时的重要讲话、视察广东 和出席第十五届全国运动会开幕式重要讲话重要指示精神，进一步推动两省相向而行、深化区域重大战 略联动发展进行交流会谈。省委书记黄坤明主持会议并讲话，海南省委书记冯飞出席会议并讲话。省委 副书记、省长、深圳市委书记孟凡利，海南省委副书记、省长刘小明分别介绍广东、海南经济社会发展 及两省合作交流情况。海南省委副书记、政法委书记杨晋柏出席会议。 省领导张虎、冯忠华、袁古洁、王胜、唐屹峰，广州市市长孙志洋；海南省领导巴特尔、王祺扬、范少 军、谢京、杨国强参加有关活动。 （徐林 骆骁骅 岳宗） 冯飞代表海南省委省政府感谢广东对海南经济社会发展的全方位支持。他表示，此次海南省党政代表团 赴广东学习考察，见证了广东科技创新实力、经济发展活力以及产业结构韧性，深切感受到广东走在前 列干事创业的非凡气象和经济社会发展取得的卓越成就。近年来，广东经济实力、科技实力、综合实力 跃上新台阶，续写了经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹的广东新篇章，让 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive industry demonstrated resilience and growth, achieving record production and sales figures, with production reaching 34.53 million vehicles and sales at 34.40 million, marking year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [1] - The year marked a significant shift in the market, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales, indicating a transition from niche to mainstream [2] - The automotive export sector also thrived, with exports surpassing 7 million vehicles, driven by technological innovation and a robust supply chain [10] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs achieved a domestic sales share of 50.8%, with production and sales figures of 16.63 million and 16.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [2] - The competitive landscape shifted dramatically, with domestic brands capturing nearly 70% of the passenger car market, reversing the dominance of joint ventures [2][3] Technological Advancements - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by electrification and intelligent technology, with significant advancements in product performance and consumer acceptance [4][5] - Innovations in battery technology have led to a 30% reduction in battery costs and a 40% increase in lifespan, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese automotive products [5] Intelligent Driving - The approval of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicles marks a pivotal moment in China's autonomous driving sector, transitioning from technical validation to mass production [6] - The penetration rate of vehicles equipped with Level 2 autonomous driving features reached 64%, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [8] Export Growth and Localization - China's automotive exports reached 7.1 million units in 2025, with NEV exports doubling to 2.615 million units, showcasing the global competitiveness of Chinese automotive products [10] - Localization strategies are being implemented, with over 20 Chinese automotive brands establishing manufacturing facilities in Thailand and other regions to enhance local production capabilities [11] Market Competition Dynamics - The introduction of compliance guidelines aims to curb price wars and establish a more orderly competitive environment, shifting the focus from price competition to quality and service [12] - The automotive industry is transitioning from a focus on volume to an emphasis on quality, with a profit margin of only 4.4% in the first eleven months of 2025, below the manufacturing industry average [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Xinjiang Co., Ltd. is recalling a total of 586 units of the DFV4258GP6N LNG semi-trailer trucks due to safety hazards related to engine and gas supply system failures [4][5]. Group 1: Recall Details - The recall involves vehicles produced between December 17, 2019, and June 12, 2020, and is initiated under the regulations for defective automotive products [4]. - The recall is categorized into three ranges, each addressing specific safety issues related to the vehicles [5]. Group 2: Safety Issues - For the first range, the EGR cooler may experience partial overheating, leading to potential engine damage and power loss under extreme conditions [5]. - The second range involves a design flaw in the gas supply system that could lead to gas leaks, posing a fire risk [5]. - The third range indicates that the exhaust system may overheat, risking damage to components and potential engine failure or fire hazards [5]. Group 3: Remedial Actions - Dongfeng will provide free inspections and replace the EGR cooler for the first range of vehicles to eliminate safety risks [6]. - For the second range, the company will install an electromagnetic shut-off valve in the LNG supply system to prevent gas leaks [6]. - The third range will see the replacement of the exhaust manifold to address safety and emission concerns [6]. Group 4: Notification Process - The company will notify affected vehicle owners through registered mail, phone calls, and text messages to arrange for free recall repairs [7]. - Customers can contact the service hotline for inquiries regarding the recall [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for a pressure testing method, system, and application for automotive sunshades based on multi-platform collaboration, indicating innovation in automotive component testing technology [1] Group 2 - Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was established in 1999 and is located in Hefei City, primarily engaged in the automotive manufacturing industry [2] - The company has a registered capital of approximately 218.4 million RMB [2] - The company has invested in 48 enterprises and participated in 5,000 bidding projects, showcasing its active involvement in the industry [2] - The company holds 946 trademark registrations and 5,000 patent records, indicating a strong intellectual property portfolio [2] - Additionally, the company possesses 672 administrative licenses, reflecting its compliance and operational capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The structure of China's automotive export enterprises is significantly optimizing by 2025, with increased concentration among leading companies and the rise of domestic passenger vehicle manufacturers as core growth drivers [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The integration advantages of the automotive industry chain are becoming more prominent, indicating a shift towards a more cohesive and efficient production and export model [1] - Continuous improvement in overseas production capacity, deepening technological research and development, and the advancement of diversified market strategies are expected to sustain growth in China's automotive exports [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to increase investment in core technology research and development, optimize export products, and strengthen localized production and services to enhance their influence in the global supply chain [1] - There is a call for greater industry collaboration to collectively address external risks and promote high-quality development of China's automotive exports [1]

经营范围含汽车零部件及配件制造；汽车零部件研发；金属制品销售；模具制造；模具销售；金属材料 销售；机械零件、零部件加工；机械零件、零部件销售；电器辅件制造；电器辅件销售；电子产品销 售；非居住房地产租赁（除许可业务外，可自主依法经营法律法规非禁止或限制的项目） 企业名称安徽正瑞智能制造有限公司法定代表人任世兵注册资本2000万人民币国标行业制造业>汽车制 造业>汽车整车制造地址安徽省马鞍山市当涂县太白镇工业集中区迎宾大道1号企业类型有限责任公司 （非自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营业期限2026-1-16至无固定期限登记机关当涂县市场监督管理局 来源：市场资讯 天眼查显示，近日，安徽正瑞智能制造有限公司成立，法定代表人为任世兵，注册资本2000万人民币， 由芜湖正瑞机械制造有限公司全资持股。 序号股东名称持股比例1芜湖正瑞机械制造有限公司100% ...

Core Viewpoint - Jianghuai Automobile announced a projected net loss for 2025, indicating a challenging financial outlook due to external market pressures and losses from joint ventures [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -1.68 billion yuan for 2025, which represents a reduction in loss of about 104.16 million yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be around -2.47 billion yuan [3]. - In 2024, Jianghuai Automobile reported a total profit of -1.87 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.78 billion yuan and a net profit of -2.74 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items, resulting in an earnings per share of -0.82 yuan [3]. Reasons for Projected Loss - The anticipated loss for 2025 is primarily attributed to two factors: increasing complexity in international conditions and intensified competition in overseas automotive markets, leading to a decline in export business [4]. - Additionally, the company is facing losses from its joint venture with Volkswagen Anhui, which is expected to result in an investment income recognition of approximately -1.08 billion yuan for the reporting period [4].

Group 1 - The core issue in US-China relations is the inconsistency of Trump's policies, which creates uncertainty and potential long-term harm to both countries [1] - Trump's recent public statement welcoming Chinese companies to invest in the US appears to be a superficial gesture, raising questions about its sincerity and true intent [3][5] - Despite Trump's rhetoric promoting cooperation, the US has not lifted high tariffs on imported cars and parts, which remain significant barriers for Chinese companies entering the US market [5][6] Group 2 - The automotive industry in the US is facing challenges not due to a lack of funding, but rather due to unclear strategic direction and frequent policy changes [11] - The current business environment in the US is unfriendly for Chinese companies, with strict scrutiny and technological barriers in place [8][9] - China's strategic reduction of US Treasury holdings to the lowest level since 2008 reflects a systematic approach to risk management and a shift towards diversifying foreign reserves [13][15] Group 3 - The political dynamics in the US, including Trump's speeches aimed at appeasing voters in key states like Michigan, highlight the intersection of politics and economic policy [9][18] - The ongoing political turmoil within the US government, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, has implications for global financial stability [17][20] - China's financial decisions are driven by its own interests and the evolving global economic landscape, rather than reactive responses to US political rhetoric [18]