本文来自微信公众号：ELLEMEN睿士，作者：Holly，编辑：Bela，题图来自：《新闻编辑室》 从到美国读高中开始，Wendy就开始为未来做规划，跟随导师做研究股票市场的项目，写过几十页的论 文。 而真正让她确立投行目标的，是大学时和高盛员工的一次交流，他们的能力、谈吐、情商，让Wendy觉 得，这就是她想进入的行业。 当时的她不会想到，才仅仅两年，自己就离开了曾经的梦想之地。 华尔街的特殊之处在于非常依赖裙带关系，尤其是校友资源。许多名校都会成立类似兄弟会的关系网， 为的就是帮助后辈进入严苛的华尔街。 根据Wendy介绍，华尔街投行对专业要求并不严格，更加看重社交能力、工作技巧、对行业的了解以及 面试表现；更倾向于金融行业目标院校的本科生和MBA学生，几乎不招聘硕士。 虽然Wendy手握商业和经济专业双学位，但就读的大学不在金融业的考虑列表里，在资源方面天然不占 优势，除了人脉不足之外，很多项目的招聘信息都无法获得，也缺乏前辈指导。 因此读大学时，Wendy的日常就是不停地在领英上联系相关人士，进行各种付费或不付费的咨询和社 交。 华尔街的职场环境同样逃不开同事之间的勾心斗角、上司的PUA。晚上12点之 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The U.S. tariff policy is impacting inventory and prices through supply shocks, leading to inflationary pressures in the short term and potential demand shocks in the long term. Current economic fundamentals in the U.S. remain stable, with manageable growth pressures [1] - Different industries are significantly affected by reciprocal tariffs, with companies facing increased costs, profit compression, and supply chain adjustments. Some firms are responding by enhancing product value, shifting to other markets, or optimizing production processes [1][5] - The industry capacity cycle is at a critical stage, with supply contraction providing investment opportunities for competitive firms that adapt to new conditions. A thorough analysis of the capacity cycle is essential for identifying potential investment opportunities [1][6] - Japan's rising government bond yields are raising concerns, potentially due to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan affecting yen arbitrage trading. Monitoring the trends in Japanese bond yields and related policy adjustments is crucial for assessing potential risks to global financial markets [1][7] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy's transmission logic involves supply shocks leading to inventory shortages and price increases, which subsequently affect monetary policy and economic growth. The current economic foundation in the U.S. is solid, suggesting that concerns about growth pressures may be overstated [8] - Analyzing U.S. inventory data is critical to understanding how long the economy can withstand tariff pressures, with estimates suggesting that overall inventory could last until around November if tariffs are reinstated [9][10] Industry Responses and Strategies - Companies are adopting technical measures and long-term strategies to cope with tariff uncertainties, including adjusting production layouts and expanding into non-U.S. markets. Low-value-added small enterprises are more adversely affected compared to larger firms [3][30] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of non-financial enterprises has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, indicating a significant slowdown in fixed asset investment growth [3][33] Capacity Cycle and Investment Opportunities - The industry capacity cycle is currently in a critical phase, with supply-side adjustments creating investment opportunities for firms that can successfully navigate the challenges [6][32] - The report identifies that industries achieving supply-side clearing are performing better, with sectors like coal mining and industrial metals showing strong growth [32][39] Japanese Economic Situation - Japan's recent economic conditions have raised concerns, particularly regarding the significant rise in government bond yields, which may disrupt both domestic and global financial markets [7][40] - The report notes that the demand for long-term Japanese bonds has decreased, prompting the Japanese government to adjust its bond issuance strategy to better align with market demand [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the preferred stock and baby bond market, highlighting both individual news and broader market trends, while emphasizing the expertise of the ADS Analytics team in generating income ideas from various security types [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The preferred stock and baby bond market is analyzed from both a bottom-up and top-down perspective, focusing on individual events and overall market conditions [1]. Group 2: Analyst Expertise - ADS Analytics consists of analysts with extensive experience in research and trading at leading global investment banks, specializing in income-generating ideas across different security types, including CEFs, ETFs, mutual funds, BDCs, and individual preferred stocks and baby bonds [1].

Investment Rating - The report provides a growth forecast for China with a rating of 4.6% for 2025, which is above consensus expectations [9][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, primarily driven by exports and related manufacturing investments [6]. - It expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth due to challenges such as demographics, debt, and de-risking, while noting potential upside risks from AI adoption [8]. - The report anticipates that elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods will negatively impact GDP growth, projecting flat export volumes for the year [9]. - It expects a widening fiscal deficit by 2.6 percentage points of GDP in 2025 compared to 2024, with total social financing stock growth rising to 9.5% [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecasts - The report forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.6% for 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024, with domestic demand expected to rise to 4.5% [10]. - Consumption growth is projected at 4.9% for 2025, with household consumption at 4.8% [10]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report predicts a prolonged reflation path with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.1% in 2025 [9]. - It outlines a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, aimed at stabilizing the economy [32]. Trade and Exports - The report notes that Chinese exports are expected to decline by 2.4% in nominal USD terms in 2025, following a 5.9% increase in 2024 [10]. - It emphasizes that despite US-China trade tensions, Chinese exports to other economies may continue to grow [23]. Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting increased government spending and lower revenue [37]. - The report discusses the implications of local government debt and special bond issuance on fiscal health [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of the CICC Insight Model, designed to enhance research efficiency in the financial sector by providing accurate, reliable, and in-depth research content amidst the vast amount of AI-generated information [1][5]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - The CICC Insight Model serves three main application scenarios: improving data accuracy, delivering core investment insights, and extracting comprehensive meeting value while ensuring user privacy [1]. - It integrates 120,000 high-quality indicators and comprehensive financial data from listed companies, enabling precise matching of important investment variables and visualizing results effectively [1][2]. Group 2: AI Search and Information Accuracy - The model addresses the challenge of content accuracy in AI-generated information by incorporating leading domestic reasoning models and leveraging CICC analysts' accumulated research frameworks [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of structured thinking and the ability to trace information sources, ensuring that key influencing factors are summarized effectively [3]. Group 3: Intelligent Meeting Summaries - The model supports bilingual meeting recognition and outputs a concise summary in both Chinese and English [4]. - It can extract Q&A information from meetings and respond to further inquiries, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of meeting highlights [5]. Group 4: Privacy and Accessibility - The model guarantees user privacy by physically deleting files within 24 hours, ensuring no residual data is left [5]. - It is accessible through a mini-program and can be integrated via API or localized connections, enhancing user experience [7][8].

金十数据5月23日讯，中金研报认为，美、日债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行，可能反映了当前全球流动性 趋紧，而作为重要融资货币，日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。我们再次提 示，随着特朗普"美丽大法案"（one big beautiful bill）通过在即，美债上限问题得到解决后，财政部可 能在7-9月集中投放新增美债，美国市场遭受系统性流动性冲击的风险上升，美联储开启QE等扩表政策 来救市的迫切性正在提升。 中金：日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀" ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous cooling of U.S. and Japanese bond auctions, along with rising interest rates, indicates tightening global liquidity, which may lead to systemic liquidity shocks in the U.S. market as new U.S. debt issuance increases following the resolution of the debt ceiling issue [1][18]. Global Liquidity Tightening - Since June 2022, major developed countries' central banks have initiated quantitative tightening (QT), resulting in a significant decline in the asset-to-GDP ratios of the U.S., Japan, Europe, and the UK by 12.1%, 14.0%, 29.3%, and 17.6 percentage points respectively by the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The total liquidity provided by these central banks has reverted to pre-pandemic levels, while the pressure on global asset valuations has exceeded pre-pandemic levels [1][3]. - The market capitalization of U.S. listed companies has increased by 82.9% from $38.5 trillion to $70.3 trillion since 2019, while nominal GDP has only grown by 35.4% [1][6]. Impact on U.S. Market - The tightening of global liquidity is particularly evident in the U.S. market, where the dollar has become more of an investment currency rather than a financing currency due to high borrowing costs [7][9]. - There has been a notable increase in net foreign investment in U.S. assets over the past two years, indicating reliance on overseas funds for dollar asset valuations [7][9]. Risks in Japanese Bond Market - The Japanese bond market is showing signs of vulnerability, with rising yields and decreasing demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as the Bank of Japan reduces its purchases [11][13]. - The tightening of yen liquidity may force Japanese financial institutions to withdraw from dollar assets, exacerbating the pressure on U.S. assets [11][17]. Liquidity Risks and Potential for QE - The resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling is expected to lead to a significant increase in net U.S. debt issuance, potentially reaching $1.25 trillion from July to September, which could sharply tighten dollar liquidity [18][19]. - Rising interest rates and liquidity constraints may suppress U.S. equities and increase the pressure on Japanese financial institutions to divest from dollar assets, leading to systemic risks in the U.S. market [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The investment banking landscape is evolving, with Evercore Inc. and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. gaining investor attention due to their distinct service offerings in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, and wealth management [1]. Investment Banking Sector Overview - The long-term outlook for the investment banking sector remains favorable, but near-term momentum has moderated due to market volatility and concerns over economic slowdown and inflation [2]. - The anticipated recovery in M&A activity is expected to occur in the latter half of 2025 [2]. Goldman Sachs Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains a leadership position in global banking and markets, with a 24% year-over-year increase in IB revenues in 2024, driven by corporate debt and equity issuances [3]. - However, IB revenues declined by 8% year-over-year in Q1 2025 due to market uncertainty and a slowdown in M&A activities [3][4]. - Goldman is strategically exiting its non-core consumer banking business to focus on higher-margin areas like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple [5][6]. - The company has divested several consumer finance businesses to enhance its focus on scalable core businesses [6]. Evercore Analysis - Evercore, while smaller, generates 95.9% of its revenues from Investment Banking and Equities, with a CAGR of 8.6% from 2017 to 2024 [7]. - The company is actively increasing its staff in the IB sector, employing 197 senior managing directors as of March 31, 2025, to support revenue growth [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Goldman shares fell by 0.1%, while Evercore shares dropped by 28.7%, against an industry growth of 0.8% [9]. - Goldman is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 12.72X, higher than its five-year median of 10.17X, while Evercore trades at 18.06X, above its five-year median of 12.40X [11]. - Evercore's valuation is at a premium compared to the industry average of 13.73X, while Goldman is trading at a discount, making it a better choice for value investors [14]. Dividend Yield - Evercore has a dividend yield of 1.43%, while Goldman has a higher yield of 2.02%, both exceeding the industry average of 1.12% [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goldman suggests year-over-year revenue increases of 7.7% and 6% for Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, with earnings growth of 13.9% and 20.9% [18]. - Conversely, Evercore's estimates indicate a revenue decline of 7.1% and 1.2% for the same quarters, with earnings declines of 22.7% and 3.4% [20]. Strategic Positioning - Despite near-term challenges, Goldman is well-positioned with an increased backlog and diversified revenue base, providing resilience that Evercore lacks during volatility [21]. - Goldman’s focus on high-return segments and divestitures is improving operational focus and profitability [22].

21 May 2025 | 10:11PM IST Goldman Sachs Asia in Focus India: Towards a better growth-inflation balance Santanu Sengupta +91(22)6616-9042 | santanu.sengupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Arjun Varma +91(22)6616-9043 | arjun.varma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on equities for both 3-month and 12-month asset allocations [2]. Core Insights - The US fiscal concerns are expected to increase the deficit by approximately $275 billion, or 0.8% of GDP, next year, primarily due to more generous individual tax cuts [1]. - Revenue from tariff increases is projected to offset the net increase in the deficit, with expectations of around $400 billion, or 1.25% of GDP, in revenue next year [1]. - Federal debt as a share of GDP is anticipated to rise to about 120% by 2035 from roughly 100% today, indicating a need for close monitoring of the US fiscal outlook [1]. - The report highlights a potential sharp decline in the US trade deficit with China, driven by a decrease in imports following frontloading ahead of tariffs [8]. - Global population aging is viewed as less concerning than previously thought, with healthier aging populations expected to work longer and mitigate economic drawbacks [9]. Summary by Sections US Fiscal Concerns - The House Republican reconciliation package is expected to increase the US deficit by around $275 billion next year [1]. - Tariff revenue is projected to be around $400 billion, which will likely offset the deficit increase [1]. - Federal debt is expected to reach approximately 120% of GDP by 2035 [1]. Trade Dynamics - The report anticipates a decline in the US trade deficit with China, with real goods imports increasing by 3% in April but declining by 4% in May [8]. - The annualized goods trade deficit was around $1.6 trillion in April, decreasing to $1.5 trillion in May [8]. Population Aging - Concerns about global population aging are considered overblown, as healthier aging populations are expected to work longer [9]. - The fertility rate required for long-term population stability is believed to be lower than the current global rate of 2.1, supporting continued population growth [9]. Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund Trends - The average US long/short equity hedge fund has maintained a return of 1% year-to-date, despite a challenging environment [11]. - Mutual funds have shown strong performance, with 50% of large-cap funds outperforming their benchmarks [11].