Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CPP Investments is initiating a global investment strategy adjustment, gradually closing private equity operations in Latin America, including Brazil, due to various macroeconomic challenges [1] - CPP Investments had previously viewed Latin America as a high-growth potential region, investing in infrastructure, consumer, and fintech projects, particularly in Brazil's energy and transportation sectors [1] - The tightening global liquidity and sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve have led to valuation pressures and increased uncertainty in emerging markets, prompting CPP Investments to reassess its asset portfolio [1] Group 2 - Some analysts suggest that the withdrawal of international long-term capital may create opportunities for other types of capital, particularly from Asian sovereign funds and policy financial instruments, to enter the Latin American market [2] - Chinese enterprises and policy banks have been increasing their investments in Latin America, establishing a robust investment network in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and telecommunications [2] - The collaboration between Chinese capital and Latin American countries is based on long-term strategic alignment, project integration, and innovative local currency settlement paths, which may provide resilience against economic cycles [2]

Strategy - Current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to last October's high, but lacks catalysts from sentiment, interest rates, and fundamentals in the short term [3] - Although tariff negotiations have progressed better than expected, the urgency for policy intervention has decreased, leading to insufficient internal economic momentum and persistent external uncertainties [3] - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, and active foreign capital continues to flow out, despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting nearly 130 billion HKD into liquidity [3] - The increase in placements and IPOs may dilute liquidity, suggesting that the market may experience fluctuations or pullbacks before more catalysts emerge [3] - The strategy of "actively intervening during low periods and taking profits during exuberance" remains appropriate, with opportunities to enter at lower costs after adjustments in existing holdings [3] Economic Data - April economic data shows a slowdown in year-on-year growth, with industrial value-added and service production indices at 6.1% and 6.0% respectively [12] - Export growth has slowed due to tariff impacts, with the value of exports from large industrial enterprises increasing by only 0.9% year-on-year [12] - Retail sales in April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies like the "old-for-new" program, although some categories like furniture and automobiles saw declines [12] - Fixed asset investment for January to April accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with equipment investment showing a significant increase of 18.2% [12] Industry Capacity Cycle - The importance of capacity cycles in industry allocation has increased, with a strong correlation between industry performance and capacity cycles over the past three years [15] - A decline in capital expenditure among non-financial enterprises by 4.9% year-on-year indicates a shift towards negative growth in capital spending, impacting capacity construction and expansion [15] - Some industries are beginning to see improvements in fundamentals, with new demand catalyzing a resumption of capital expenditure growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [15]

中金研报称，当地时间5月21日，20年期美债拍卖遇冷，中标利率升破5%，投标倍数跌至2.46，引爆市 场恐慌，美国市场再度出现股债汇"三杀"，10年期美债利率一度突破上行阻力位4.6%。同样的，5月20 日日本国债拍卖结果也较冷，20年期投标倍数跌至历史低位2.5，10年日债利率站上1.5%。我们认为， 美、日债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行，可能反映了当前全球流动性趋紧，而作为重要融资货币，日元流动 性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间5月21日，20年期美债拍卖遇冷，中标利率升破5%，投标倍数跌至2.46[1]，引爆市场恐慌，美国市场再度出现股债汇"三杀"，10年期美债利率一 度突破上行阻力位4.6%。同样的，5月20日日本国债拍卖结果也较冷，20年期投标倍数跌至历史低位2.5，10年日债利率站上1.5%[2]。我们认为， 美、日 债同步拍卖遇冷、利率上行，可能反映了当前全球流动性趋紧，而作为重要融资货币，日元流动性不足带来的外溢效应可能加速美国股债汇"三杀"。 我 们再次提示，随着特朗普"美丽大法案"（one big beautiful bill）通过在即，美债上限问题得到解决后，财政部可能 在 7-9月集中投放新增美债，美国市场 遭受系统性流动性冲击的风险上升，美联储开启QE等扩表政策来救市的迫切性正在提升 （参见《 美国流动性冲击 、重启QE与主权财富基金 》）。 全球流动性收紧 2022年6月以来，主要发达国家央行同步开启QT。较2022年二季度，2024年底美、日、欧、英四大央行的资产占本地GDP比例分别下滑了12.1、14.0、 29.3和17.6个百分点，如果仅考虑狭义流动性[3]，比例则分别 ...