Core Insights - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is focusing on gross margin recovery while managing elevated tariff pressures and investing in growth for fiscal 2026 [1][5] - The company reported a gross margin of 69% in the fiscal second quarter, a decrease of approximately 165 basis points year-over-year due to higher tariffs on production in China [2][11] - Management anticipates improving profitability in the latter half of the fiscal year, with a projected gross margin increase to 71% [5][11] Financial Performance - The fiscal second quarter gross margin decline was attributed to tariffs, with 75% of e.l.f.'s global sourcing coming from China, making margins sensitive to trade policy changes [2][3] - Tariff rates have moderated since peaking earlier in the year, with every 10-percentage-point change in tariffs impacting annualized costs by $17 million [3][11] - A $1 price increase implemented on August 1 has helped offset higher costs, with core brand consumption growing about 7% in the fiscal second quarter [4][11] Future Outlook - e.l.f. Beauty expects a gross margin improvement to 71% in the second half of fiscal 2026, indicating a 200-basis-point increase from the first half [5][11] - The overall gross margin for the fiscal year is projected to decline by 100 basis points, primarily due to tariff pressures in the first half [5] - The favorable mix from the Rhode acquisition is expected to contribute positively to gross margins despite increased wholesale exposure [4][5] Market Position - e.l.f. Beauty's shares have declined by 37.3% over the past six months, contrasting with the industry's growth of 7.8% [10] - The company's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 23.51, lower than the industry's average of 29.00 [13] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 indicate a year-over-year decline of 15.9%, while fiscal 2027 shows a growth expectation of 25% [15]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan is positioned as a high-end skincare brand focusing on camellia oil, experiencing rapid growth in 2023, with plans for an IPO by December 30, 2025, aiming to raise approximately HKD 9.97 billion (RMB 8.97 billion) for channel expansion and brand development [1][5] Group 1: Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan, established in 2003, specializes in high-end skincare with a focus on anti-aging, leveraging its proprietary camellia oil [2] - As of the first half of 2025, Lin Qingxuan operates 554 offline stores, primarily located in high-end shopping malls, and is projected to rank first among domestic high-end skincare brands in 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach approximately RMB 688.6 billion in 2024, with skincare products accounting for 67% of sales, and high-end skincare expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The facial essence oil segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, expected to reach a market size of RMB 13.9 billion by 2029 [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Lin Qingxuan's revenue and net profit are projected to be RMB 1.21 billion and RMB 190 million, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 50% and 121% [4] - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached RMB 1.052 billion, a 98% increase year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 182 million, up 110% [4] - The core product, camellia oil essence, has maintained the top sales position in the facial essence oil category for 11 consecutive years, with a 176% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 4: IPO and Future Strategy - The IPO proceeds will focus on brand enhancement, channel development, supply chain improvements, and multi-brand strategies [5] - Key long-term strategies include brand rejuvenation targeting younger consumers, synergistic channel development, and expanding product lines into whitening and makeup categories [5] - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of RMB 382 million, RMB 578 million, and RMB 742 million for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 104.24%, 51.50%, and 28.38% [5]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Cosmetics industry is facing challenges due to softer consumer spending, uneven retail restocking, and persistent cost pressures, which are squeezing margins and reshaping demand trends [1][4]. - Companies in this industry manufacture and market a variety of beauty and personal care products, including skincare, fragrance, makeup, and hair care items [3]. Current Challenges - Rising costs for packaging, ingredients, logistics, and promotional activities are impacting profit margins, while trade tensions and potential supply chain disruptions add uncertainty [1][4]. - Consumers are prioritizing essential purchases over discretionary spending, leading to decreased demand for cosmetics [4]. Long-term Growth Drivers - Despite near-term pressures, long-term fundamentals are supported by innovation and digital transformation, with companies investing in product innovation and enhanced e-commerce capabilities [2][6]. - The demand for organic and clean beauty products is growing, prompting companies to innovate and expand their offerings [6]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Cosmetics industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 177, placing it in the bottom 27% of over 243 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [7][8]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, returning 10% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's growth of 18.3% [11]. Valuation Metrics - The industry is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.99X, higher than the S&P 500's 23.45X and the sector's 16.42X [14]. Notable Companies - **The Estee Lauder Companies**: Focused on restoring profitability and driving long-term growth through innovation and digital channels, with a Zacks Rank of 1 [17]. The consensus estimate for its EPS has increased by 0.5% to $2.15 [18]. - **Coty Inc.**: Currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, focusing on stabilizing its Consumer Beauty segment and enhancing e-commerce capabilities. The EPS estimate remains unchanged at 42 cents [21][22]. - **Helen of Troy Limited**: Also holds a Zacks Rank of 3, pursuing sustainable growth through its Leadership Brands and strategic investments. The EPS estimate has decreased by 1.2% to $4.05 [29][24]. - **European Wax Center, Inc.**: Positioned for long-term expansion with a Zacks Rank of 3, focusing on customer acquisition and operational productivity. The EPS estimate has decreased by 4.7% to 61 cents [27][28].

Core Insights - The company is reducing its product development timeline to better align with rapidly changing consumer demand [1] Company Strategy - The maker of Sally Hansen nail polishes and Marc Jacobs perfumes is adapting its strategy to respond to market trends more effectively [1]

Core Insights - Three stocks with buy rank and strong income characteristics are highlighted for investors to consider on December 26th Group 1: J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF) - J&J Snack Foods Corp. has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a dividend yield of 3.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.0% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 6.5% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) - Expeditors International has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a dividend yield of 1.0%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 6.9% over the last 60 days [2] Group 3: The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) - The Estée Lauder Companies has a Zacks Rank of 1 and has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings increase by 4.9% over the last 60 days [2]

Core Insights - Pat McGrath Labs, once valued at $1 billion, is undergoing a formal asset sale managed by Hilco Global due to operational challenges [1][3] - The sale includes the brand's intellectual property, trademarks, and associated assets, with bids due by January 26, 2026 [2][3] - The brand's rapid global expansion has led to operational issues, resulting in a significant decline in valuation after its peak in 2018 [3][4] Company Overview - Pat McGrath Labs is recognized for its high-performance formulas and luxurious collections, but has faced logistical and management challenges [3][4] - The brand's operational friction has led to management restructures that failed to stabilize its financial performance [4] Strategic Context - The auction is strategically timed as founder Pat McGrath has been appointed Creative Director for Louis Vuitton's La Beauté makeup line, enhancing her influence in the industry [5] - The brand's unique positioning at the intersection of high fashion and retail accessibility makes it an attractive acquisition target for potential investors [6] Market Dynamics - The prestige beauty sector is witnessing increased competition from celebrity-backed labels, making the acquisition of a legacy brand like Pat McGrath Labs a rare opportunity [6]

Core Insights - L'Oréal S.A. is increasing its stake in Galderma Group AG from 10% to 20% [1] Valuation Methods - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's fair value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation [1] - The DCF method requires precise assumptions and can introduce biases, while the multiples approach relies on the assumption that peer companies are fairly priced [1] - Reverse valuation starts from the market price and discount rate to uncover the free cash flow assumptions embedded in the price, providing a more straightforward assessment of market beliefs [1] Free Cash Flow Analysis - A Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what belongs to shareholders, calculated as Earnings + Amortization – CAPEX – average acquisition cost [1] - The analysis disregards working capital and debt changes, focusing on three key figures: earnings, amortization, and investments [1] Forecasting Methodology - The H-model is applied for forecasts, featuring a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth aligned to the risk-free rate, represented by the 10-year government bond yield [1] - All cash flows are discounted using the cost of equity, calculated as RFR × beta + 5% ERP, resulting in a clear valuation of the business [1]

Group 1: First Solar and Clean Energy - First Solar is highlighted as a top pick by Mizuo, but the stock experienced a reversal, dropping 6% after previously being up due to a deal between Alphabet and Intersect Power, a customer of First Solar [1] Group 2: Live Nation and Concert Industry - Live Nation is considered a top pick at Evercore, with the belief that interest in concerts has intensified rather than waned, indicating a strong secular trend in the industry [2][3] Group 3: Estee Lauder and Cosmetics Market - Estee Lauder is viewed positively for its potential turnaround under new leadership, with expectations of recovery in the prestige makeup market in the US and China, alongside a margin rebuild plan [4][6] - The target price for Estee Lauder has been raised to $100, reflecting cautious optimism about its future performance [4][5] Group 4: FedEx and Logistics Sector - FedEx is noted for being one of the most inexpensive stocks in its coverage, with a turnaround underway, as evidenced by solid performance numbers [9][10] - The company is expected to spin off its troubled freight division into a separate publicly traded entity, which could unlock significant shareholder value [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Nestle considers its stake in L'Oreal as a financial investment, with regular reviews but no new developments reported by CEO Philipp Navratil [1] Group 1 - Nestle's investment in L'Oreal is primarily viewed as a financial asset [1] - The company conducts regular assessments of its stake in L'Oreal [1] - No recent updates or changes regarding the investment have been disclosed [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coty Inc. is experiencing significant challenges, including leadership changes and macroeconomic pressures, which have led to a substantial decline in its stock value, despite a potential price target increase suggested by Evercore ISI. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Markus Strobel from Procter and Gamble is set to become the executive chair and interim CEO, following the departure of CEO Sue Nabi after a five-year tenure [2] - The company describes this leadership change as a "pivotal moment" amid ongoing challenges [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Coty's shares have lost over half their value since the start of the year, reflecting the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and higher tariffs [5] - The current stock price is $3.14, marking a decrease of approximately 3.53%, with a decline of $0.115 today [3] - The stock has shown volatility, ranging from a low of $3.14 to a high of $3.27 during the trading day [3] Group 3: Market Capitalization and Trading Volume - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $2.74 billion, with a trading volume of 7,709,091 shares on the NYSE [4] - Over the past year, COTY's stock has reached a high of $7.71 and a low of $3.12, indicating challenges in maintaining investor confidence [4] Group 4: Price Target - Evercore ISI has set a price target of $7 for Coty Inc., indicating a potential increase of about 120% from its current price [5]