从林清轩看 化妆品品牌何以差异化突围 长江证券研究所商贸零售研究小组 2025-09-24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 李锦 分析师 罗祎 联系人 曾维朵 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514080004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080019 SFC执业证书编号：BUV258 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 02 林清轩：差异化品类&成分&客群突围 03 投资建议：精选细分赛道机遇 目 录 04 风险提示 %% research.95579.com 3 01 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 research.95579.com 4 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 01 ◼ 化妆品行业增速当前回落至平稳增长区间。社零数据来看，限额以上化妆品增速由2020年的双位数增长回落至个位数平稳区间， 2025年1-6月同比小幅增长3%；线上数据来看，淘系及抖音美妆大盘增速同样趋于稳健 ...

Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing a shift from short-term gains to a focus on "slow value," emphasizing stability, efficiency, supply chain advantages, and shopping experience [5][6][25] - JD Beauty has reported significant growth, achieving double-digit growth in the first half of 2025 and maintaining accelerated growth over four consecutive quarters [4][22] - High-end brands like SK-II have established JD Beauty as a primary online sales channel, contributing approximately 60% of their sales in China [6][9] Market Dynamics - Consumers are becoming more rational and discerning, focusing on ingredients, sourcing, and long-term usage experiences rather than marketing narratives [3][5] - The beauty market is characterized by fluctuating trends, with brands recognizing that certainty, rather than mere traffic, is crucial for success [5][12] - The high return rates in live commerce have led brands to seek more stable sales channels, with JD Beauty offering lower return rates compared to competitors [7][9] Brand Strategies - SK-II's early partnership with JD Beauty has allowed it to dominate the online sales channel in China, with a stable return rate of around 9% [6][7] - JD Beauty's focus on quality customer engagement through its JD PLUS membership has resulted in a loyal customer base that is less likely to return products [9][10] - The platform's commitment to genuine products and customer trust has become a significant factor for brands investing in JD Beauty [23][24] Innovation and Growth - JD Beauty's "Tenfold Growth Plan" has seen over 230 brands participate, with many achieving substantial sales increases, including high-end brands like La Mer and Armani [22][25] - The platform is innovating the shopping experience by integrating instant delivery services, allowing customers to receive products within minutes [24] - Collaborative marketing strategies, such as the "Super Star Fan Day," have created emotional connections between brands and consumers, enhancing customer loyalty [24][25] Consumer Behavior - Recent studies indicate that over 50% of consumers prioritize hydration and anti-aging benefits when purchasing skincare products, reflecting a more informed consumer base [23] - The demand for genuine products has heightened, with consumers increasingly concerned about authenticity, especially for high-priced skincare items [23][24] - Brands are adapting to these changes by focusing on product efficacy and customer experience, moving away from reliance on single explosive products [18][20]

洞见给读者送礼物 预约直播 ，抽 送 高定香水 （ 包邮 到家） 人到中年，最重要的不是车子，房子，票子。 而是经营好自己的这3个好习惯，尤其最后一点，非常重要。 第一 ， 经营好自己的家庭。 人到中年你终于发现，所谓的圈子，所谓的社交，都毫无意义。 一个人最大的成功，就是经营好 自己的家庭。 有一个知冷知热的伴侣，有一个懂得感恩的孩子， 双亲健在，身体健康 。 第二 ， 经营 好自己的身体 。 40岁前人找病，40岁以后病找人。 中年以后，身体的各种情况都在走下坡路，再也比不上年轻的时候。 千万不要等到身体垮了，零件转不动了，病痛缠上身了，才感到后悔。 每天坚持早睡早起，一日三餐按时吃饭，跑步健身多多运动。身体好了 ， 才有余力去做你想做的事儿。 第三， 经营 好自己的形象 。 "一个人的外表，就是一个人价值的外观。 它藏着你 自律的生活 ，还藏着你 正在追求着的人生 。 " 中年以后，更要经营好自己的形象， 坚持运动，保持好的身材和体态，好好护肤，保持年轻好状态。 但是，现在市面上的护肤品品种太多了，而且价格起伏不定，很多朋友不知道如何选择适合自己的。 这次七夕前夕， 8月27日晚上6点 ，我们有一个 林 ...

Group 1: Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market. The overall increase in Hong Kong stocks has been more significant than that of A-shares since the beginning of the year, driven by sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and AI applications [1][2] - The current technology and consumer assets in the Hong Kong stock market align well with industry development trends and have superior fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflows from the mainland [1][2] Group 2: Military Industry - The military industry is on an upward trend due to the intensifying great power competition, with increased defense spending being a necessary option. The focus of U.S. and allied defense strategies is gradually shifting towards the Indo-Pacific region, which may lead to heightened tensions around China [3][4] - The defense military index outperformed the market, rising by 0.66% during the week of July 26 to August 1, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.94% and 0.74%, respectively [4] Group 3: Consumer Services - Gu Ming, a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with broad growth potential. The company is focusing on high-frequency product innovation and strong franchisee management to ensure consistent store operations [8][9] - The ready-to-drink beverage market has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier markets, driven by increasing consumer demand and the ongoing evolution of product categories [9][10] Group 4: Cosmetics - Lin Qingxuan, a pioneer in the "oil-based skincare" segment, has successfully established a high-end brand image through its camellia oil products. The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its product categories to enhance its market presence [11][12] - The cosmetics market is projected to grow significantly, with the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare segment expected to reach a market size of 119.8 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2024 to 2029 [11][12]

Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of 2025, outperforming the A-share market, driven by sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and AI applications[4] - The overall increase in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the scarcity of certain assets, aligning with current industry development trends and better fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflow from mainland investors[5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AI sector is leading the technological cycle upward, with significant growth potential for Hong Kong's tech assets, particularly in the AI industry chain, which includes model development and commercial applications[5] - The film industry has shown significant improvement, with a 49% increase in box office revenue week-on-week, and a year-on-year growth of 64.8% due to new releases during the summer season[11] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 17.8%[10] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand despite rising inventory pressures among dealers[10] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the tariff exemption period by 90 days, stabilizing trade relations temporarily[14] - Recent meetings have emphasized the need for macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market, with a focus on promoting consumption and managing risks[16]

Group 1: Construction Materials - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and improvement rather than large-scale demolition, focusing on meeting public needs and enhancing existing urban development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission called for preventing low-level redundant construction and vicious competition, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the low-altitude economy [1] Group 2: Machinery - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, but the engineering machinery category maintained a high level of prosperity, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [2] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份 and 徐工机械 based on the strong performance in the engineering machinery sector [2] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - In Q2 2025, the holding ratio of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks increased to 4.3%, with significant increases in rare earths and minor metals [3] - Investment suggestions include 北方稀土 for rare earths, 金诚信 and 紫金矿业 for copper, and 中国宏桥 for aluminum [3] Group 4: Chemicals - The government is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity in the petrochemical industry, which could enhance industry competitiveness [4] - The current phase of evaluating the elimination of old chemical production capacity is anticipated to lead to a gradual optimization of supply [4] Group 5: Banking - 常熟银行 reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to 6.06 billion yuan and a 13.5% increase in net profit to 1.97 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and the provision coverage ratio is high, indicating strong resilience in earnings and profitability [7] Group 6: Internet Media - 哔哩哔哩 has significant potential for C-end paid user growth, with a focus on the commercialization of its advertising business and the launch of new gaming products [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable costs while projecting adjusted net profits of 2.15 billion yuan, 3.51 billion yuan, and 4.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Group 7: Home Appliances - 海尔智家 is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a notable upward trend in air conditioning operations for 2025 [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.5 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan, and 27.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 10, and 9 times respectively [9] Group 8: Electronics - 视源股份 continues to show revenue growth, although net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.048 billion yuan and 1.239 billion yuan respectively [10] - The long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected net profit of 1.486 billion yuan for 2027 [10] Group 9: Skincare - 林清轩 has established itself as a leading high-end skincare brand in China, with its camellia oil facial essence ranked first in retail sales among all facial essence products for 11 consecutive years [6] - The brand is recognized as the only domestic brand among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China, according to 灼识咨询 [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is a leader in the high-end domestic skincare market in China, focusing on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products, with its flagship brand "Lin Qing Xuan" offering high-end skincare solutions based on natural camellia ingredients [3][8] - The market for skincare products in China is projected to reach CNY 688.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% from 2019 to 2024, and an expected CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [4][37] - The facial essence oil category, driven by the "oil-based skincare" trend, is expected to grow significantly, with a market size of CNY 5.3 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [4][37] - The company has seen substantial revenue growth, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.21 billion in 2024, representing a 50.3% year-on-year increase [18] Company Overview - The company has established itself as a rare high-end domestic skincare brand, with its camellia essence oil being the top-selling product in the facial essence oil category for 11 consecutive years [3][8] - The company has a balanced distribution of online and offline channels, with online sales growing significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [5][25] - The company has a strong presence in the high-end anti-wrinkle skincare market, ranking first among domestic brands and being the only domestic brand in the top ten [3][8] Market Trends - The demand for anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products is high, with a projected market size of CNY 119.8 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 15.0% from 2019 to 2024 [49] - The high-end skincare segment is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with a projected CAGR of 8.9% from 2019 to 2024 [43] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin has been consistently high, with projections of 82.5% in 2024, and a significant improvement in net profit margin from -0.9% in 2022 to 15.4% in 2024 [88] - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of CNY 187 million in 2024, representing a 121.1% year-on-year increase [18][88] Distribution Channels - The company has expanded its offline presence, with a total of 506 stores by the end of 2024, primarily located in shopping malls [78] - Online sales have become the dominant revenue source, accounting for 59.1% of total revenue in 2024, with significant growth in both direct sales and sales through online retailers [25][74] Product Strategy - The company's primary product category is facial essence oil, which has seen a revenue increase from CNY 218 million in 2022 to CNY 448 million in 2024, with a growing market share [66][70] - The company has successfully positioned its camellia essence oil as a leading product in the market, with cumulative sales exceeding 30 million bottles by the end of 2024 [66]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing concern over white hair among individuals, particularly after significant life changes such as childbirth, and presents a natural hair care product as a solution to this issue. Group 1: Personal Experience and Concerns - Many individuals feel distressed upon discovering white hair, which can make them feel older than their actual age [3][4][6] - The rising trend of dyeing hair to appear younger is noted, but the high costs and maintenance involved in professional dyeing are highlighted as significant drawbacks [8][10] Group 2: Product Introduction - The article introduces RUYI's herbal black hair shampoo, which claims to nourish hair and promote black hair growth through natural ingredients [17][19] - The product is marketed as safe, containing no harmful chemicals or dyes, making it suitable for sensitive users, including pregnant women [19][145] Group 3: Product Composition and Benefits - The shampoo includes various herbal extracts such as He Shou Wu, black fungus, and ginseng, which are known for their nourishing properties [87][100][102] - It is designed to provide essential nutrients to hair follicles, enhancing melanin production and potentially reversing the graying process [25][87][90] Group 4: User Testimonials and Effectiveness - Users report positive outcomes, including reduced white hair and improved scalp health after using the product for a period [74][76][79] - The shampoo is noted for its additional benefits, such as controlling oil, reducing dandruff, and improving overall hair texture [124][130][136] Group 5: Pricing and Availability - The product is priced competitively, with promotional offers encouraging bulk purchases for better savings [53][158] - The article suggests that the product is widely available and encourages readers to purchase it through the provided links [82][159]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan is a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, focusing on anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products, with its flagship product being the camellia oil facial essence, which has ranked first in retail sales for 11 consecutive years since its launch in 2014 [3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach a scale of 688.6 billion yuan in 2024, with skincare products accounting for the largest share at 461.9 billion yuan. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for skincare from 2019 to 2024 is 6.8%, and it is expected to accelerate to 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [4]. - The facial essence oil category is experiencing significant growth, with a market size of 5.3 billion yuan in 2024 and a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, expected to slow to 21.3% from 2024 to 2029. Anti-wrinkle and firming skincare products are also in high demand, with a CAGR of 15.0% from 2019 to 2024 and an expected 18.9% from 2024 to 2029 [4]. Company Highlights - The company has successfully positioned itself in the niche market of facial essence oil, with this category representing 37% of its revenue in 2024. Revenue and gross margin for this category have been consistently increasing from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenue growth of 30.4% in 2023 and 57.6% in 2024 [5]. - The company maintains a balanced distribution of online and offline channels, with online revenue growth of 26.3% in 2023 and 81.1% in 2024, contributing to overall growth. Offline stores enhance the brand's high-end skincare image, with rapid growth in non-direct stores [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company analyzed. Core Insights - The report highlights Lin Qingxuan as a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, focusing on camellia oil as a core ingredient and emphasizing the "oil-based skincare" philosophy. The company has experienced significant growth, with revenue projected to increase from 6.91 billion RMB in 2022 to 12.1 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.7% [4][26]. - The skincare industry in China is on an upward trend, with the market size expected to grow from 332.9 billion RMB in 2019 to 461.9 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.8% [60]. The facial essence oil segment is particularly robust, with a projected CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [60]. Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan was established in 2003 and has evolved through three phases: initial establishment (2003-2015), expansion (2016-2019), and maturity (2020-present). The company has achieved significant milestones, including the launch of its flagship product, camellia oil, and has maintained the top sales position in the facial essence oil category for 11 consecutive years [4][10]. - The company is controlled by founder Sun Laichun, who holds approximately 70.61% of the shares, ensuring stable governance and management with over 10 years of industry experience among core team members [11][13]. Financial Analysis - Revenue and Profitability: Lin Qingxuan's revenue is expected to grow from 6.91 billion RMB in 2022 to 12.1 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit turning from a loss of 0.06 billion RMB in 2022 to a profit of 1.87 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 120% year-on-year growth [4][26][50]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable above 78%, reaching 82.5% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average [37]. Industry Analysis - The skincare market is the largest segment of the cosmetics industry in China, with a market size expected to grow from 332.9 billion RMB in 2019 to 461.9 billion RMB in 2024 [60]. The high-end skincare segment is also expanding, with projections indicating growth from 74.9 billion RMB in 2019 to 114.4 billion RMB in 2024 [74]. - The anti-wrinkle skincare market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 15.0% from 2019 to 2024, driven by advancements in research and consumer demand for effective products [65]. Competitive Landscape - Lin Qingxuan is positioned as a leader in the high-end domestic skincare market, ranking 13th among high-end skincare brands in China with a market share of 1.4% [78]. The company is the only domestic brand in the top 15 high-end skincare brands and ranks 10th in the anti-wrinkle category with a market share of 2.2% [80]. - The product matrix includes a wide range of offerings centered around camellia oil, with 188 SKUs planned for 2024, including essence oils, creams, and masks [20][81].