洞见（DJ00123987）——不一样的观点，不一样的故事，3000万人订阅的微信大号。点击标 题下蓝字"洞见"关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 这年头， 「断崖式衰老」 的人好像越来越多了。 毕竟，上一天班、带一天孩子，就可以轻易吸走休息好几天养出来的精气。 美貌就像工资一样，会猝不及防地离开。 谁敢信我是00后... 面膜敷了不少，还是没起到什么作用.... 现在的 皮肤就像没拧紧的水龙头 —— 补水再多也留不住！ 睡前涂的保湿霜，第二天醒来依旧紧绷。 秋冬换季更是 雪上加霜，干皮、皱纹 轮番上阵。 冬天的干燥更是颜值 "杀手"！ 精心画的妆，出门半小时就卡粉浮粉... 咨询了之后才知道： 这时候光补水没用， "以油养肤" 才是冬季护肤的正确打开方式！ 相信很多人都知道这几年非常流行 "以油养肤" 。 它可以给肌肤补充油脂之外，还可以保湿 ，起到改善肌肤状态 ，让干燥的肌肤更快恢复的效果 。 适用于干性肌肤等不同肌肤和水油失衡的混合肌肤。 很多姐妹用过一段时间后都像发现了新大陆，走上了以油养肤的"不归路"。 无论是油皮、干皮还是其他肤质，很多人都说以油养肤后，皮肤变好了。 随便搜， 只要是精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with Douyin's beauty GMV projected to grow over 20% year-on-year in January 2026, reflecting a marginal improvement during the off-season due to brand efforts in daily sales and self-broadcasting, alongside the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][2]. Group 1: Strong Product and Brand Momentum - Companies with strong product and brand momentum are expected to achieve high growth through new product launches and category expansions, such as Ruoyuchen, which is focusing on high-end household cleaning and health products [3]. - Beijiaojie is maintaining stable performance in oral care and is expected to benefit from the trend of AKK ingredients in its probiotic raw material business [3]. - Maogeping is positioned as a high-end brand with ongoing expansion in offline counters and online sales, anticipating rapid growth across multiple product lines [3]. - Linqingxuan is benefiting from the trend of oil-based skincare, with its flagship essence oil performing well and new products showing promise [3]. - Shangmei Co. is expanding its main brand Han Shu and sub-brands, with strong growth expected from key products [3]. Group 2: Leading Brands with Strong Asset Value - Beitanie has been actively adjusting its channel and inventory mechanisms since 2025, leading to product structure upgrades and profit recovery, with strong GMV growth in January 2026 [4]. - Proya is expected to have a clear new product strategy in 2026, launching several key products and expanding its sub-brands to drive steady growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong fundamentals and high growth potential recommended for increased holdings include Ruoyuchen, Beijiaojie, Maogeping, Linqingxuan, and Shangmei Co. [5]. - Companies showing signs of bottom improvement include Beitanie, Proya, Dengkang Oral, Shanghai Jahwa, and Runben Co. [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Lin Qingxuan with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 130.88, corresponding to a 2026 adjusted PE of 28x [6][11]. Core Insights - Lin Qingxuan focuses on high-end anti-wrinkle and firming products, pioneering the "oil-based skincare" concept. The brand has a clear positioning and product category mindset, with significant growth potential in its market segment [6][10]. - The company has developed its flagship product, Camellia Oil, into its fifth generation, and its "1+4" product strategy includes a diverse range of products such as lotions, toners, creams, serums, and sunscreens, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. - Lin Qingxuan's omnichannel sales network supports steady growth in both online and offline sales, with strong R&D capabilities expected to reinforce its market leadership in niche segments and enable product innovation [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Lin Qingxuan are as follows: - 2024: RMB 1,210 million (+50.27%) - 2025: RMB 2,218 million (+83.34%) - 2026: RMB 3,214 million (+44.91%) - 2027: RMB 4,464 million (+38.91%) [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: RMB 200.24 million (+126.37%) - 2025: RMB 385.40 million (+92.47%) - 2026: RMB 589.34 million (+52.92%) - 2027: RMB 821.16 million (+39.33%) [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to be 11.0% in 2023 and 16.6% in 2024, indicating improved operational efficiency [10][24]. Market Dynamics - The "oil-based skincare" market is currently experiencing rapid penetration growth, driven by product innovation, increased brand investment in product education, and a shift in consumer awareness towards skin barrier repair [7][21]. - Lin Qingxuan has established a strong brand identity around the Camellia flower ingredient, which has become synonymous with its product offerings, enhancing consumer recognition and loyalty [8][22]. - The company has a robust offline presence with 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, and it is actively expanding its online sales channels, leveraging live streaming and collaborations with KOLs to capture growth opportunities [9][22]. Competitive Positioning - Lin Qingxuan's ability to incubate successful single products and replicate this success across categories positions it favorably within the high-end skincare market, which is relatively concentrated [10][17]. - The company’s focus on high-quality raw materials and integrated supply chain management is expected to solidify its leadership in niche markets [23][24].

Core Insights - The essence of the article highlights the growing popularity of "next-drop" skincare products in China, with projections indicating that the market could exceed 70 billion yuan by 2025, prompting brands to compete for market share in this segment [1] Industry Trends - The domestic skin repair market is experiencing a trend towards "demand segmentation and professional care," leading to consumer confusion due to the complexity of skincare routines and ingredient compatibility [1] - The "oil-based skincare" concept is well-accepted, yet existing oil products often have drawbacks such as heaviness and potential for acne, which the new product aims to address [2] Product Features - The hfp suspended essence utilizes microencapsulation technology to create oil beads that release upon application, ensuring freshness and a lightweight feel, making it suitable for sensitive skin [2] - Key ingredients include sea buckthorn oil and jojoba seed oil, known for their high nutritional value and skin compatibility, which help in skin repair and moisture retention [2] - The product also incorporates patented ingredients like sea glass and sodium hyaluronate to smoothen skin and reduce fine lines, along with various plant extracts to soothe sensitivity and repair the skin barrier [2] Usage Scenarios - The hfp suspended essence can be used in multiple ways, such as a quick soothing treatment, a makeup primer, or mixed with creams for enhanced effects [3] - The product has been officially launched on the brand's mini-program and major e-commerce platforms, receiving positive feedback from initial users [3]

Core Insights - The essence of the article highlights the growing popularity of "next-drop" serums in the skincare market, with projections indicating that the Chinese next-drop skincare market may exceed 70 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The article discusses the launch of hfp's new product, the soothing and nourishing next-drop serum, aimed at sensitive skin, which is part of the brand's strategy to strengthen its position in this competitive segment [1] Industry Trends - The domestic skin repair market is experiencing a trend of "demand segmentation and professional care," leading to consumer confusion due to the complexity of skincare routines and ingredient compatibility [3] - There is a rising demand for products that combine multiple skincare benefits, such as repair and wrinkle reduction, which hfp aims to address with its new serum [3] Product Features - The hfp next-drop serum utilizes dual oil microencapsulation technology, incorporating sea buckthorn oil and jojoba seed oil, along with patented tightening essences, to provide a dual-function serum for sensitive skin [3][5] - The product addresses common issues with oil-based skincare, such as heaviness and potential breakouts, by employing microencapsulation technology that ensures freshness and a lightweight feel [5] - The serum includes additional beneficial extracts, such as purple grass and centella asiatica, to enhance skin soothing and barrier repair while balancing oil and moisture levels [7] Usage and Availability - The hfp next-drop serum can be used in various ways, including as an emergency soothing treatment, a makeup primer, or mixed with creams for added benefits [9] - The product has been officially launched on the brand's mini-program and major e-commerce platforms, receiving positive initial feedback from users [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating strong performance compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has outperformed the market recently, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 2.0% from January 16 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the Shenwan A Index by 0.8 percentage points [4][5]. - December 2025 saw a significant increase in social retail sales for cosmetics, reaching 38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, indicating robust demand even in the off-season. The overall growth rate for Q4 was 9.9%, significantly higher than the annual growth of 5.1% for 2025, driven by promotional events like Double 11 [10][17]. - The report anticipates continued high consumer demand in Q1 2026, supported by new product launches and regulatory approvals in the medical beauty sector [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index increasing by 2.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index rising by 4.2%, both outperforming the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. Key Company Reviews - Lin Qingxuan (2657HK) is highlighted as a benchmark in the high-end domestic skincare market, with revenue projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. The company is expected to turn a profit of 187 million yuan in 2024, a 120% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - Langzi Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 900 million to 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 245.25% to 302.80% [4]. - Qingsong Co., Ltd. (300132.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 165 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 137.73% to 201.74% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the high-end skincare market is expanding, with the market size expected to reach 218.5 billion yuan by 2029. The concept of "oil-based skincare" is becoming mainstream, driving growth in the facial oil segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [12][14]. - E-commerce channels are increasingly important, with Lin Qingxuan achieving a 65.4% online revenue share in H1 2025, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall for growth [13]. Sales Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of cosmetics reached 38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The overall retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 were 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully captured the high-end anti-wrinkle essence oil market through a differentiated approach using camellia flower ingredients, launching its core product in 2014 and adopting an "oil-based skincare" concept, leading to a projected revenue CAGR of 32% from 2022 to 2024 and a turnaround in net profit [1][2] Product Strategy - The company focuses on high-end positioning with its camellia flower essence oil, which has undergone five iterations since its launch, enhancing its efficacy and gradually increasing its price range, with the essence oil series accounting for 45% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [2][4] - The product line is expected to expand under the "1+4+N" strategy, incorporating creams, toners, sunscreens, and masks, while maintaining a flagship product strategy [4][5] User Demographics - The company initially targeted mature customers through offline channels but has shifted to online channels since 2020, attracting younger consumers aged 25-40, primarily from new first-tier and second-tier cities [3][4] Channel Strategy - In the first half of 2025, offline and online channels generated revenues of 3.64 billion yuan (+51.5%) and 6.88 billion yuan (+137%), respectively, with online sales accounting for 65.4% of total revenue [3][4] - The company plans to expand its offline store network primarily through direct sales, optimizing existing stores to enhance efficiency and customer retention [5][6] Growth Drivers - The company is positioned for significant growth in the essence oil market, with a projected online GMV of approximately 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating room for improvement compared to competitors [4][6] - Future growth is expected to come from both internal product development and potential acquisitions, with a focus on enhancing brand presence and expanding product offerings [6][7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 22.1 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan, and 42.0 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.51 billion yuan, 5.70 billion yuan, and 7.71 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [6][7]

Group 1: Lin Qingxuan (02657HK) Overview - Lin Qingxuan is a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, established in 2003, focusing on the "oil-based skincare" concept using camellia oil as a core ingredient [2][11][13] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.7%, while net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 6 million yuan to a profit of 187 million yuan, representing a 120% year-on-year increase in 2024 [2][11][13] - The brand's market share in the high-end skincare segment is 1.4%, making it the only domestic representative among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China for 2024 [11][13] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The skincare market in China has reached a scale of 400 billion yuan, with significant growth potential in per capita spending compared to Western markets [11][13] - The segment of facial essence oils is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall industry growth [11][13] - The high-end skincare market is projected to expand to 218.5 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the mainstream adoption of the "oil-based skincare" concept [11][13] Group 3: Product and Channel Strategy - Lin Qingxuan has successfully upgraded its core product, the camellia essence oil, to its fifth generation, achieving cumulative sales of over 45 million bottles and maintaining the top position in the national facial essence oil sales for 11 consecutive years [11][13] - The company is enhancing its product matrix with stable growth in other products like creams and essence waters, while also focusing on R&D breakthroughs to improve product efficacy [11][13] - The brand's omnichannel strategy includes nearly 600 physical stores and a strong online presence, with online sales accounting for 65.4% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [11][13] Group 4: Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Lin Qingxuan from 2025 to 2027 are 347 million yuan, 577 million yuan, and 820 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 86%, 66%, and 42% [11][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are expected to be 31, 18, and 13 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11][13] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The "January Effect" in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the return of overseas investors and the gradual inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets, which is expected to continue [4][12][14] - The market's liquidity environment has improved compared to the end of the previous year, with a notable increase in trading activity and a decrease in short-selling [14] - Despite the positive trends, the market remains sensitive to fluctuations in overseas risk appetite and domestic economic conditions [14]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan is positioned as a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, focusing on camellia oil-based products and the concept of "oil-based skincare" [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2003, Lin Qingxuan has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with founder Sun Laichun holding approximately 71.34% of the shares [1]. - The management team, led by Sun Laichun, has over 20 years of industry experience, contributing to strategic and brand development [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.7% [1]. - Net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 6 million yuan to a profit of 187 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 120% in 2024 [1]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 1.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, and net profit was 182 million yuan, up 109.9%, with a net profit margin of 17.3% [1]. Industry Trends - The skincare market in China has reached a scale of 400 billion yuan, with significant growth potential compared to Europe and the U.S. [2]. - The facial essence oil segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall industry growth [2]. - The high-end skincare market is expected to expand to 218.5 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the mainstream adoption of the "oil-based skincare" concept [2]. Product Development - Lin Qingxuan's core product, the camellia oil essence, has undergone five iterations and has sold over 45 million bottles, maintaining the top position in the national facial essence oil sales for 11 consecutive years [3]. - The product matrix is expanding with stable growth in sales of creams and essence waters, contributing to a second growth line [3]. - The company has established a professional R&D team and developed key ingredients through innovative processes, enhancing product efficacy [3]. Market Positioning - Lin Qingxuan is the only domestic brand among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China for 2024, holding a market share of 1.4% in a market dominated by international brands [3]. - The company has built a comprehensive business model that includes a core product matrix, deep channel layout, and collaborative operations across the entire supply chain, enhancing brand recognition and customer loyalty [4].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company Lin Qingxuan has been deeply engaged in the oil-based skincare sector for many years, establishing itself as a pioneer in this field with significant growth potential driven by product expansion and channel development [1][2] - The main brand Lin Qingxuan, founded in 2003, initially focused on natural skincare products and later launched the Camellia Oil Essence in 2014, which has become a leading product in the oil-based skincare category [2][3] - The company has experienced remarkable growth, with revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 reaching 1.05 billion and 180 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 98% and 110% [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The oil-based skincare market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 5.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42% from 2019 to 2024 [2][3] - Lin Qingxuan holds a leading market share of 12.4% in the facial oil category, significantly ahead of other brands, thanks to its long-term market education and the popularity of its Camellia Oil Essence [2][3] Group 3: Sales Channels and Performance - The company's star product, the Camellia Oil Essence, has seen rapid sales growth, with revenue from this category increasing by 176% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, accounting for 46% of total revenue [3] - Online sales have surged, with a 137% year-on-year increase in online revenue, which now represents 65% of total sales, driven by the popularity of platforms like Douyin [3] - The company has expanded its offline presence, with over 554 stores as of the first half of 2025, indicating significant potential for further growth in physical retail [3]