Core Viewpoint - The exit of Komeito from the coalition government with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has created uncertainty regarding the nomination of LDP President Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, as the LDP lacks a majority in the House of Representatives even with potential allies [1][5]. Group 1 - The LDP holds 196 seats in the House of Representatives, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has 148 seats, making it impossible for Takaichi to secure a majority vote solely from the LDP [5]. - Takaichi is actively seeking support from other parties to secure her nomination as Prime Minister, emphasizing her efforts before the upcoming parliamentary session [3][4]. - The National Democratic Party, despite being a potential ally, has expressed a hardening stance following Komeito's exit, indicating that joining the coalition may not be meaningful without Komeito [5][8]. Group 2 - The LDP's previous leadership had been in contact with the Japan Innovation Party regarding potential coalition discussions, but the exit of Komeito has complicated these dynamics [7]. - If the opposition parties unite, they could potentially nominate a candidate who could surpass Takaichi's vote count in the Prime Minister nomination [8]. - Komeito has stated that it will vote for its own candidate in the first round of voting, indicating a lack of support for the opposition in a potential runoff [8].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Japan's Komeito party to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) marks the end of a 26-year partnership, introducing new uncertainties in Japan's political landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Background of the Coalition - Komeito, a center-right party established in 1964, has been in a coalition with the LDP since 1999, maintaining a cooperative relationship even during periods of LDP's opposition [3]. - The coalition has historically been characterized by mutual support, where the electoral fortunes of both parties were intertwined [3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Coalition's Breakdown - The primary reason for Komeito's exit is linked to the LDP's "political money" scandal, which has significantly affected both parties' electoral prospects [6][8]. - High-profile appointments by new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, particularly involving individuals associated with the scandal, have exacerbated tensions between the two parties [6][8]. - Komeito's emphasis on political integrity and its longstanding opposition to constitutional amendments have created ideological rifts with the LDP, particularly during the Abe administration [7][8]. Group 3: Implications for Future Politics - The dissolution of the coalition introduces significant uncertainty for the upcoming prime ministerial election, with Komeito's exit reducing the likelihood of Takaichi's successful election [9][10]. - If Takaichi is elected, her administration will face challenges in passing legislation and budgets due to the loss of Komeito's support, potentially leading to internal dissent within the LDP [10]. - The current political instability reflects a broader trend of frequent leadership changes and a decline in public trust in government, exacerbated by economic pressures and internal party conflicts [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing ruling coalition between Japan's Komeito Party and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has officially ended, marking a significant shift in Japan's political landscape after 26 years of collaboration [1][5]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Komeito Party leader, Taro Kato, announced the coalition's dissolution due to dissatisfaction with LDP's response to issues surrounding "black money politics" [1][3]. - The coalition's breakdown is expected to create instability in Japan's political environment, with potential for opposition parties to unify against the LDP in upcoming elections [1][8]. - The LDP currently holds 191 seats in the House of Representatives, which is insufficient for a majority, raising concerns about the party's ability to secure a new prime minister [6][8]. Group 2: Implications for Leadership - The dissolution of the coalition poses a significant challenge for newly elected LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, as she must now navigate a more complex political landscape to secure her position as prime minister [6][8]. - The upcoming prime ministerial election, originally scheduled for October 15, is likely to be postponed due to the lack of cooperation between the LDP and opposition parties [6][9]. - Komeito has indicated that it will not adopt a purely oppositional stance but will evaluate policies on a case-by-case basis, suggesting a more nuanced approach moving forward [7]. Group 3: Broader Political Impact - The breakdown of the coalition is expected to alter the power dynamics within Japan's political framework, potentially leading to increased collaboration among opposition parties [8]. - The political turmoil may disrupt Japan's current political agenda, especially with significant international events, such as a planned visit from U.S. President Trump, approaching [9].

值得注意的是，同日，日本最大在野党立宪民主党党首野田佳彦也对即将举行的国会首相提名选举发表 了看法。他表示，"自民党和公明党之间的局势紧张，如果在野党团结起来，我们将面临一个罕见的局 面，有可能夺取政权，甚至赢得首相选举"。 辽宁大学日本研究中心客座研究员陈洋向南都记者指出，此次公明党宣布退出执政联盟，非常令人意 外。"这对日本政局将造成深远影响。高市早苗未必能顺利成为首相，不排除出现在野党首相的可能。 此外，公明党放弃联合执政，直接影响是首相选举，间接影响是今后的立法、预算等审议，以及对外关 系。" 当地时间10月10日，日本公明党宣布，决定退出与自民党的执政联盟。此前，自民党刚完成党内总裁选 举，高市早苗当选成为自民党第29任总裁，按照程序，她被预测很可能在接下来的国会首相指名选举中 当选首相。但自公联盟持续26年的合作破裂，将为此带来新的不确定性。有日本问题专家告诉南都N视 频记者，这对日本政局将造成深远影响，高市早苗未必能顺利成为首相。 据悉，当地时间10月10日，日本公明党党首斋藤铁夫与自民党总裁高市早苗举行会晤。会后，公明党党 首斋藤宣布将推出与自民党的执政联盟。他在接下来的直播讲话中表示，对于公 ...

执政联盟选情告急，民调数据正在持续恶化。根据日媒《每日新闻》和JNN在7月12-13日进行的在线调 查，执政联盟（自民党加公明党）预计将赢得31-55个席位，而维持参议院多数席位需要50席。 更令人担忧的是席位预测的下降趋势。据野村证券报告，日媒《Aera》6月30日版预测执政联盟将获得 54-58席，《文艺春秋》7月3日版将预测降至46席，而Senkyo Dot Com截至7月10日的预测为41-53席， 显示执政联盟的预期席位数随时间推移明显下滑。 一场可能重塑日本政治格局的选举正在逼近。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券7月14日发布的研究报告显示，距离日本参议院选举仅剩一周，执政联盟 失去多数席位的可能性正在日益增加。多项民调显示，执政联盟预期获得的席位数呈下降趋势，这一结 果可能导致石破茂首相辞职、美日贸易谈判暂停、加息预期减弱，并对日本股市和货币政策产生重大影 响。 首相辞职与谈判停摆可能性增加 野村证券在报告中指出，如果执政联盟保住了多数席位（≥50席），石破茂政权将得以延续，日美贸易 谈判将按计划推进至8月1日截止期限。但此情景可能加速日本央行加息步伐，推动日元升值并压制股 市。 据央视新闻，美东时 ...

在今年2月举行的德国联邦议院（议会下院）选举中，德国选择党以约20.8%的得票率排名第二，排在联邦议院第一大党联盟党之后，并且领先于社民党。 新一届德国政府将于5月6日成立，德国选择党将成为新一届联邦议院最大的反对党。 △新一届德国联邦议院德国选择党所占的比例和议席数（图片来源：德国联邦议院官网） 1. 联邦宪法保卫局报告称德国选择党进行了反移民煽动 德国选择党内官员经常将有移民背景的公民描述为"德国护照持有者"，并使用"人口替代"等术语来描述大规模移民的影响，移民经常被比作入侵物种，或被 描述为"持刀移民"或"持刀人"。 2023年10月，德国选择党党内领导层在社交媒体上发帖，指责绿党制定了"人口替代总体规划"，这与"东方总体规划"相呼应。"东方总体规划"是纳粹德国在 二战期间对东欧犹太人和其他族裔进行种族灭绝的计划。 2023年7月，该党领导人魏德尔将持刀犯罪描述为"来自完全陌生文化、暴力文化的人……它在我们的文化中不存在……它只存在于非洲和中东的文化中"。 2. 联邦宪法保卫局报告称德国选择党中有种族主义行为 联邦宪法保卫局报告称，德国选择党青年团曾开展一项活动，包括在一首歌曲、一个游戏和一段视频片段， ...