本报记者 郑 璇 本报特约记者 刘 波 开栏的话：当今世界，百年未有之大变局加速演进，国际合作和竞争格局发生深刻变化，中国与外部世 界的互动空前频密。站在这一历史节点，我们比以往任何时候都更需要全面系统地认识世界，准确地把 握发展机遇和潜在风险，积极地为全球治理贡献中国智慧与方案。从今天起，《环球时报》将推出区域 国别深度观察栏目《世说新域》，聚焦周边国家、重要大国，以及中东、非洲、拉美等地区国家的政 治、经济、社会新趋势，通过一线记者对变局的微观纪实，以及专家学者对国际现象背后逻辑与未来发 展趋势的分析，逐步构建一幅立体、动态的世界认知地图。在本栏目的第一期，我们将聚焦2025年日本 政治、社会以及经济发展的主要特点，为读者展现在过去一年日本加速右倾的轨迹及其影响。 不断发酵的焦虑与不满催化出急剧右倾 2025年，从夏季国会参议院选举的震荡，到秋季首相的更迭，日本的政治图谱发生了明显位移。多位分 析人士不约而同地使用"右倾"一词来定义这一年的日本。这种趋势的背后，不仅是政党席位的得失，更 是一场由社会经济焦虑驱动、被激进政治力量所利用和放大的深刻演变。 政治层面的急剧右倾，最深层的原因是日本社会内部不断发酵 ...

Group 1 - The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has increased its seats in the House of Representatives from 230 to 233, ensuring a slim majority ahead of two key budget votes [1][2] - The coalition, formed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, now holds a total of 233 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, which is crucial for legislative stability [1][2] - This development is expected to facilitate the passage of the supplementary budget announced on Friday and the annual budget scheduled for December [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government has finalized a comprehensive economic strategy with a total scale of approximately 21.3 trillion yen (about 965.6 billion yuan), primarily funded by the supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 [2] - The supplementary budget is projected to have general account expenditures of about 18.3 trillion yen, with over 11 trillion yen in new government bonds issued to raise funds [2] - Despite efforts to control borrowing, the new debt issuance is significantly higher than the 6.7 trillion yen required under the previous administration's economic plan, marking a 75% increase [2] Group 3 - Concerns about Japan's long-term fiscal situation under Prime Minister Takashi continue to unsettle investors, with long-term government bond yields reaching over 20-year highs and the yen remaining weak [3] - As of the latest report, the USD/JPY exchange rate is at 156.362, with the 20-year government bond yield at 2.83% and the 30-year yield at 3.347% [3] - To stabilize market sentiment, Prime Minister Takashi indicated that the total amount of government bonds issued this fiscal year will be lower than the previous year, with a total issuance of 40.3 trillion yen projected for fiscal year 2025, a reduction of about 4.3% from the previous year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The potential exit of the Japan Innovation Party (維新会) from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) if negotiations on reducing the number of members in the House of Representatives do not progress satisfactorily [1][3]. Group 1: Political Context - The ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito has been disrupted, leading to the inclusion of the Japan Innovation Party as a necessary partner for maintaining a governing majority [2][3]. - The Japan Innovation Party, being a relatively young and regionally focused party, has limited influence outside of Osaka, making its partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party crucial for political relevance [2][3][5]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - The Japan Innovation Party has set demands, including a 10% reduction in the number of House of Representatives members and the establishment of a backup capital in case of natural disasters in Tokyo, as conditions for remaining in the coalition [3][4]. - The Liberal Democratic Party is facing internal disagreements regarding the significant reduction of seats, which complicates negotiations and raises the stakes for both parties [5][6]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes - If negotiations fail, the Japan Innovation Party may leverage its position as a "kingmaker" to extract concessions, but this could also risk the stability of the coalition and lead to a potential political crisis [4][6]. - Observers suggest that if the coalition breaks down, the Liberal Democratic Party may seek to re-establish its alliance with Komeito, which could shift the political landscape back towards a more stable governance style [7].

Group 1 - The Japan Restoration Party (维新会) is set to join a coalition government with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (自民党), with a formal agreement expected to be signed on the 20th [1][2] - The coalition will initially operate under an "outside cabinet cooperation" model, meaning that members of the Restoration Party will not hold cabinet positions at first, but may consider joining the cabinet if policy implementation progresses [2] - The Restoration Party has proposed significant political reforms, including a 10% reduction in the number of National Diet members and a ban on corporate and organizational political donations, which may create tensions within the coalition [3] Group 2 - The upcoming prime ministerial election on the 21st is likely to see the Restoration Party support the nomination of Sanae Takaichi, making her the first female prime minister of Japan [1][4] - The current composition of the House of Representatives is crucial, with the Liberal Democratic Party holding 196 seats and the Restoration Party holding 35 seats, requiring a majority of 233 seats for a prime ministerial nomination [4] - There are concerns regarding the governance of Japan, as the new prime minister will face challenges such as addressing rising prices and potential political instability, which could lead to a dissolution of the Diet and new elections [5]

Core Viewpoint - The political negotiations between Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition Japan Innovation Party (JIP) have made significant progress, with discussions ongoing regarding the reduction of parliamentary seats as a condition for agreement [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - The negotiations between the LDP and JIP concluded with JIP representatives indicating substantial progress [1]. - A key condition for the agreement is the reduction of the number of parliamentary seats [1]. - The recent withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition adds uncertainty to the prime ministerial election process [1]. Group 2: Implications for Leadership - If the LDP and JIP form an alliance, the likelihood of Sanae Takaichi being elected as Japan's prime minister will significantly increase [1].

Group 1 - The UK Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, has decided to abandon its significant economic policy proposals, including a £90 billion tax cut plan, in response to increasing scrutiny from competitors and the public [1] - The party's deputy leader, Richard Tice, has downgraded the tax cut commitment to a "vision" rather than a concrete proposal, indicating a shift in strategy as the party faces criticism [1] - The proposed tax reforms included raising the personal income tax threshold from £12,570 to £20,000 and increasing the higher tax rate threshold from £40,000 to £70,000, which was criticized by the Institute for Fiscal Studies for being financially unfeasible [1] Group 2 - Current Prime Minister Keir Starmer has framed the next election as a battle for survival between the Labour Party and the right-wing Reform Party, highlighting a shift in public sentiment towards right-wing politics [2] - Despite holding only five seats in Parliament, the Reform Party is leading in voter intention polls, indicating a significant change in the political landscape [2] - Farage has stated that the Reform Party will present a rigorous and fully costed manifesto for the next election, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and a focus on spending cuts before implementing tax reductions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential for political instability in Japan as the Komeito party decides not to form a minority coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to a possible shift towards an opposition-led government [2][4] - The upcoming temporary Diet session in late October may see the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) pushing for a unified opposition candidate, Yuichiro Tamaki, which could result in a leadership change away from the LDP [4][5] - The dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition raises concerns about governance challenges, as a minority government may struggle to pass budgets and laws without opposition support, potentially leading to a political deadlock [5][7] Group 2 - Komeito's decision to assert its policy demands after leaving the coalition indicates a shift towards a more independent political stance, which may complicate future governance [7] - The rise in the yield of 10-year government bonds to 1.7%, the highest in 17 years, reflects market concerns about fiscal deterioration amid political uncertainty [7] - There are internal discussions within the LDP about fielding its own candidates in constituencies previously allocated to Komeito, indicating a potential shift in electoral strategy as Japan enters a multi-party system [8]

Core Points - The dissolution of the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito has created significant uncertainty in Japanese politics, particularly affecting the prospects of the newly elected LDP president, Sanae Takaichi, who was seen as a potential first female Prime Minister [1][2][5] Group 1: Coalition Breakdown - The LDP and Komeito's 26-year alliance ended due to structural contradictions and a political crisis, primarily stemming from a scandal involving political donations that led to declining support for the LDP [2][3] - Komeito's exit was unexpected and was driven by the LDP's failure to address demands for stricter political funding regulations, which Komeito sought to enhance its political integrity [2][3] - The ideological differences between the conservative LDP and the more centrist Komeito have been exacerbated by the LDP's shift towards a more aggressive military stance, creating a rift that contributed to the coalition's collapse [3][4] Group 2: Political Implications - Without Komeito's support, the LDP could lose between 25 to 45 seats in the upcoming 2024 House of Representatives election, severely undermining its governing foundation [4] - Takaichi's path to becoming Prime Minister is now fraught with challenges, as the LDP lacks a majority in both houses of the Diet, and Komeito has indicated it will not support her candidacy [5][6] - The potential for a united opposition among the three main opposition parties (Constitutional Democratic Party, National Democratic Party, and Japan Innovation Party) has increased, which could lead to a change in government if they agree on a unified candidate [6][7] Group 3: Future Political Landscape - The political landscape in Japan is expected to become more fragmented and unstable, with frequent changes in leadership and potential for a "twisted Diet" where no party holds a stable majority [8][9] - The possibility of early elections may arise as a means to resolve the political deadlock, but the LDP's current low approval ratings and the fallout from the donation scandal could hinder its chances [9][10] - The long-term effects of the coalition's dissolution may lead to a more multiparty system, with a focus on short-term governance rather than structural reforms, potentially exacerbating Japan's economic challenges and international relations [10][11]

Core Points - The political situation in Japan has shifted dramatically with the Komeito party's decision to end its coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), jeopardizing the nomination of Sanna Takichi as the first female Prime Minister [2][4] - The LDP's loss of coalition support means it no longer has the power to unilaterally influence Japan's political landscape, with other parties now emerging as key players [6][7] Group 1: Political Dynamics - The Komeito party's departure from the coalition with the LDP marks the end of a 26-year political alliance, complicating Takichi's path to becoming Prime Minister [2][4] - The LDP's internal power dynamics have shifted, with Takichi's election as party president being supported by factions aligned with former Prime Ministers, which has led to tensions with Komeito [4][5] - The LDP's current political standing is weakened, as it must now seek alliances with other parties like the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People to regain lost parliamentary seats [6][7] Group 2: Future Implications - The potential rise of the Constitutional Democratic Party as a unifying force among opposition parties could lead to a significant political shift in Japan [2][6] - Regardless of Takichi's fate, the trend of rising right-wing conservatism in Japan is expected to continue, posing new geopolitical risks [8] - The instability of any new cabinet formed from current negotiations suggests that Japan's political landscape will remain volatile, regardless of which party ultimately gains power [8]

Group 1 - The Komeito party has decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to unsatisfactory responses regarding the reform of "black money politics" [1][2] - Komeito's leader, Saito Tetsuo, stated that the party will not take a purely oppositional stance towards the LDP but will evaluate policies on a case-by-case basis [1] - The LDP, despite the withdrawal, remains the largest party in the Diet, with a significant number of seats in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors [3] Group 2 - High-profile political dynamics are at play as Komeito's exit may complicate the election of new Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo, although he still has a considerable chance of succeeding [3][4] - The Constitutional provisions for the Prime Minister's election indicate that if no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a second round will determine the winner [3] - The opposition parties, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party, express that a change in government is possible if they can unite, but face challenges in collaboration due to differing policy positions [4] Group 3 - The withdrawal of Komeito could lead to increased challenges for the new Prime Minister in both domestic and foreign policy, particularly if a new coalition cannot be formed [5] - A potential delay in the Prime Minister's election could extend a "political vacuum," complicating the transition of power and the ability to implement effective policies [6] - The instability in the political landscape may adversely affect Japan's foreign relations, especially with upcoming diplomatic engagements [6]