Group 1 - The report indicates that the influx of funds into Hong Kong since May has not significantly boosted the stock market, as these funds have primarily flowed into deposits, bond trading, and other areas rather than equities, leading to a negative sentiment shift [1][2] - Investors who previously sold stocks are now considering re-entering the market, believing that a significant downturn in Hong Kong stocks is unlikely, which could create new incremental capital [2][3] - The report suggests that returning investors are likely to favor undervalued stocks rather than high-flying thematic stocks, focusing on those with lower price-to-earnings ratios [2] Group 2 - The report lists a selection of recommended stocks, including Tencent Holdings (market cap: 470.47 billion, 2025 EPS: 22.9), Xiaomi Group (market cap: 152.97 billion, 2025 EPS: 1.5), and others across various sectors [3][8] - Tencent Holdings is highlighted for its strong competitive position in gaming and advertising, with expected EPS growth driven by AI integration and a robust ecosystem [11][12] - Xiaomi Group is noted for its innovative automotive segment and strong performance in the smartphone market, with a focus on high-margin products and AI applications [19][20] - Sunny Optical Technology is recognized for its growth in the automotive sector and advancements in optical technology for smartphones, projecting significant revenue increases [27][28] - Anta Sports is expected to benefit from strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, enhancing its market position [33][34] - Greentown Service is identified as a quality property management company with strong growth potential and high dividend yields [39][40] - Yuehai Investment is focusing on core water supply operations, with expectations for stable cash flow and high dividends following the divestment of non-core assets [44][45] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment space, leveraging technology to enhance its service offerings [49][50] - Dashih Holdings is expanding its store network significantly, with a focus on delivery services and menu optimization [56][57] - Far East Pharmaceutical is projected to see rapid growth in its nuclear medicine segment, with several innovative products in the pipeline [62][63] - Haitian International is expected to benefit from domestic upgrades and international expansion, with a focus on high-end markets [68][69] Group 3 - Financial data for the recommended stocks shows projected revenues and net profits for 2025, with Tencent Holdings expected to generate 716.55 billion in revenue and 210.26 billion in net profit [75] - Xiaomi Group is projected to achieve 491.83 billion in revenue and 39.60 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Sunny Optical Technology is expected to generate 42.68 billion in revenue and 3.32 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Anta Sports is projected to achieve 78.17 billion in revenue and 13.23 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Greentown Service is expected to generate 19.98 billion in revenue and 898 million in net profit in 2025 [75] - Yuehai Investment is projected to achieve 18.54 billion in revenue and 4.27 billion in net profit for 2025 [75] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is expected to generate 3.58 billion in revenue and 1.29 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Dashih Holdings is projected to achieve 5.37 billion in revenue and 129 million in net profit for 2025 [75] - Far East Pharmaceutical is expected to generate 12.20 billion in revenue and 2.08 billion in net profit in 2025 [75] - Haitian International is projected to achieve 18.25 billion in revenue and 3.52 billion in net profit for 2025 [75]

Core Insights - The enthusiasm for biopharmaceutical companies to list in Hong Kong remains strong, with Xiantong Pharmaceutical recently submitting its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expected to become the first "nuclear medicine" stock in Hong Kong [1][2] - Xiantong Pharmaceutical focuses on the Chinese radioactive drug market, aiming to develop and commercialize innovative radioactive drugs, with a pipeline that includes 15 assets across oncology, neurodegenerative diseases, and cardiovascular diseases [1][2] Industry Overview - The global radioactive drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from $9.7 billion in 2024 to $57.3 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% [2] - Since 2021, over 80 related transactions have occurred globally, involving major multinational pharmaceutical companies, while China has seen more than 15 transactions during the same period [2] Company Financials - In 2023 and 2024, Xiantong Pharmaceutical reported revenues of 10.23 million and 44.06 million yuan, respectively, with net losses of 309 million and 156 million yuan [3][4] - The company’s revenue sources include sales of pharmaceutical products, licensing income, and CRO/CDMO services, with a significant increase in revenue expected in 2024 due to increased orders for CRO/CDMO services [3][4] Research and Development - Xiantong Pharmaceutical has a dedicated R&D team of 196 members, with R&D expenses accounting for the highest proportion of total costs, indicating a strong focus on product development [5][6] - The company is advancing its core product, XTR008, which is in the registration phase and is expected to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) in March 2025, with approval anticipated in 2026 [2][5] Cash Flow and Debt - The company has consistently negative operating cash flow, with net cash used in operating activities of -306 million and -277 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively [6][7] - Xiantong Pharmaceutical's current ratio is below 1, indicating potential short-term liquidity risks, as current liabilities significantly exceed current assets [7] Funding and Future Plans - Since 2017, Xiantong Pharmaceutical has completed nine rounds of financing, raising over 2.9 billion yuan, with a post-investment valuation of approximately 5.188 billion yuan as of December 2024 [7][8] - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used for R&D and registration of core products, development of other candidates, enhancing sales and marketing capabilities, and establishing new production bases [7][8]

Industry Overview - The nuclear medicine market is experiencing robust growth due to increasing health awareness and rapid advancements in medical technology [1] - As of July 4, 2024, 88 radioactive new drugs have been approved globally, with only 18 for treatment purposes [1] - From 2021 onwards, China's policies have strongly supported the nuclear medicine industry, which is expected to drive its development [1] - According to Ping An Securities, the nuclear medicine market in China is projected to grow from 5 billion yuan to 26 billion yuan at a CAGR of 26.6% from 2023 to 2030 [1] Company Highlights - Yuan Da Pharmaceutical (00512) is a notable player in the nuclear medicine sector, with a successful Phase II clinical trial for its global innovative product STC3141 [2] - CICC maintains profit forecasts for Yuan Da Pharmaceutical at 2.131 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.235 billion yuan for 2026 [2] - The company has received approval for its innovative drug ITM-11 to conduct Phase III clinical trials, targeting neuroendocrine tumors [3] - China Tongyuan (01763) is a leading enterprise in the nuclear medicine industry, dominating the market for radioactive pharmaceuticals and being the largest supplier of radiation source products in China [4] - In October 2023, China Tongyuan began mass production of a new dual-spiral CT radiation therapy platform, marking a significant advancement in domestic high-end radiation therapy products [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercialization of nuclear medicine is accelerating, with significant growth in diagnostic nuclear drugs and the potential for domestic nuclear drugs to reach a commercialization inflection point [3][17]. - The report highlights the successful commercialization of Pluvicto and Lutathera, which are expected to generate substantial revenues, with Pluvicto projected to exceed $5 billion in peak sales [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the similarities between Radioligand Therapy (RDC) and Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC), suggesting that RDC could replicate the success of ADC in the market [3][22]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Overseas Nuclear Drug Rapid Growth, Domestic Commercialization Period - Overseas nuclear drugs are experiencing rapid commercialization, with Pluvicto achieving $1.392 billion in revenue in 2024, a 42% increase, and Lutathera generating $724 million, a 20% increase [3][12]. - The combined revenue from these two drugs for Novartis reached $2.116 billion, indicating the ongoing value realization of nuclear drugs [3][12]. - The report notes that the domestic nuclear drug market is set to expand significantly, with five new nuclear drugs approved since 2020, including Yttrium-90 microspheres from Yuan Da Pharmaceutical, which is expected to generate nearly HKD 500 million in revenue in 2024, a growth rate exceeding 140% [3][20]. Part 2: RDC Expected to Replicate ADC Success Path - RDC shares structural and mechanistic similarities with ADC, consisting of a targeting ligand, a linker, and a radioactive nuclide [3][22]. - The report outlines that both RDC and ADC have followed similar validation timelines, with ADC gaining market traction after the success of Enhertu, while RDC is now gaining attention following the success of Pluvicto [3][22]. - The market for new nuclear drugs is projected to reach approximately $4-5 billion in 2024, comparable to the ADC market size around 2021 [3][22]. Part 3: Domestic Nuclear Drug Pipeline Overview - The report details the current pipeline of domestic nuclear drugs, with three products in the NDA stage, including Novartis's PSMA diagnostic and therapeutic drugs [3][49]. - The leading targets in domestic research remain PSMA, FAP, and SSTR, with companies like Yuan Da Pharmaceutical and Xiantong Pharmaceutical leading in clinical project numbers [3][53]. - The anticipated approval of Novartis's two PSMA-targeted products in Q2 2025 is expected to further stimulate the domestic nuclear medicine market [3][20].