Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, with a high dividend yield leading to a potential revaluation of its value [1] - The privatization transaction is progressing normally, with the current stock price implying a potential discount of 41% for the company's H shares [4] Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total gas sales volume of 7.258 billion cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, outperforming the national natural gas consumption growth rate of -2.2% [2] - The company expects a 6% year-on-year growth in gross profit for retail gas in 2025 [2] Energy Sales and Smart Home Services - The company reported a 9.9% year-on-year increase in comprehensive energy sales volume, reaching 100.39 billion kWh in Q1 2025 [3] - The penetration rate for smart home services decreased to 3.7%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points [3] - The company anticipates a gross profit growth of at least 10% for smart home services in 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecasts, with core profits for 2025-2027 expected to be 7.220 billion, 7.655 billion, and 8.039 billion RMB, respectively [5] - The target price is set at 68.6 HKD, based on a 10x 2025E PE ratio [5] Key Financial Metrics - The company is projected to have a revenue of 113.873 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.66% [6] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 6.38 RMB, with a projected ROE of 15.32% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 109.9 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.99 billion RMB, down 12.2% year-on-year. However, core profit exceeded expectations at 6.95 billion RMB, primarily due to better-than-expected sales and gross margins in the energy sector [1][2] - The major shareholder plans to privatize the company and achieve an "A+H" listing, indicating an acceleration in the integration of the natural gas industry chain, which is expected to unlock long-term value [1][4] - The company’s domestic core profit for 2024 increased by 10.2% to 6.71 billion RMB, driven by growth in retail gas volume and energy sales [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s free cash flow increased by 20% year-on-year to 3.73 billion RMB, supported by rising operating cash flow and reduced capital expenditures. The total dividend for 2024 reached 3 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 45%, and a projected increase to 48% in 2025 [3] - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025-2026 by 2.7% and 6.7% to 7.23 billion RMB and 7.68 billion RMB respectively, with an estimated core profit of 8.08 billion RMB in 2027 [5][21] Market Position and Strategy - The privatization plan includes a cash payout of 24.5 HKD per share and the issuance of new H shares, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs through better integration of resources [4] - The company’s retail gas volume for 2024 is projected to grow by 4.2% to 26.2 billion cubic meters, with a stable gross margin expected to maintain a 6% increase in 2025 [2][21] Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 69.5 HKD, based on a 10x PE ratio for 2025 estimates, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous target of 71.1 HKD [5][7] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 74.66 billion HKD, with a current share price of 66.00 HKD as of March 27 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.04 [7][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a core profit growth of 5% for 2024, driven by structural upgrades in green energy, despite a revenue decline of 3% to HKD 55.5 billion [1][5]. - The gas sales volume in Hong Kong remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the company expects to benefit from a favorable pricing mechanism [2][3]. - The renewable energy and green energy sectors show significant growth potential, with net profit from renewable energy reaching HKD 322 million, a 544% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenues of HKD 55.5 billion, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a core profit of HKD 5.95 billion, an increase of 5% year-on-year [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.71 billion, down 6% year-on-year [1][6]. Gas Sales - The gas sales volume in Hong Kong was 27,159 TJ, with residential gas volume decreasing by 1.4% and commercial/industrial gas volume increasing by 1.4% and 5.2% respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates stable gas sales in Hong Kong for 2025, maintaining an EBITDA margin of approximately 52% [2][3]. Renewable Energy Growth - The renewable energy segment is expected to grow rapidly, with the company shifting towards a light-asset strategy, projecting significant revenue growth from carbon services and asset management [4][5]. - The green energy business, including green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is strengthening its capacity to capture future demand [4][5]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6% and 9% respectively, with expected net profits of HKD 6.24 billion and HKD 6.56 billion [5][24]. - The target price has been revised down to HKD 7.04 from HKD 7.63, reflecting a price-to-book ratio of 2.3x for 2025 [5][24].