Group 1 - In September, the producer price index for industrial producers showed a decline in the prices of production materials by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decrease in producer prices [2] - The prices in the extraction industry fell by 9.0%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively [2] - Prices for living materials decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall producer price index by about 0.45 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.7% and durable consumer goods down by 3.9% [2] Group 2 - Year-on-year changes in the producer price index indicated a 0.0% change in the overall producer price index, with a 2.3% decline compared to the previous year [10] - The producer price index for production materials showed a 3.3% year-on-year decrease, with specific declines in extraction (9.9%), raw materials (3.6%), and processing (2.6%) [10] - Living materials experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, with food prices down by 1.6% and durable consumer goods down by 3.3% [10] Group 3 - In terms of month-on-month changes, the producer price index for industrial producers remained stable, with extraction prices increasing by 1.2% and processing prices decreasing by 0.1% [7] - Living materials saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, with food prices down by 0.1% and durable consumer goods down by 0.4% [7] - The purchase price index for industrial producers showed a 0.1% increase month-on-month, with notable increases in non-ferrous metal materials and electrical wire prices by 1.2% [8]

Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In September, the producer prices for industrial producers saw a decline of 2.3% year-on-year, with production materials prices decreasing by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decline [8][11] - The mining industry experienced a significant price drop of 9.0%, while raw materials and processing industries saw decreases of 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively [8][10] - Consumer goods prices also fell by 1.7%, with food prices down by 1.7% and durable goods prices decreasing by 3.9% [8][10] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In September, the producer prices for industrial producers remained flat month-on-month, with production materials prices unchanged [7][10] - The mining industry prices increased by 1.2%, while processing industry prices saw a slight decline of 0.1% [7][10] - Consumer goods prices decreased by 0.2%, with durable goods prices down by 0.4% [7][10] Group 3: Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - The purchase prices for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with fuel and power prices dropping by 8.1% [10][12] - Notably, prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 6.6% year-on-year [10][12] - Month-on-month, purchase prices increased by 0.1%, driven by a 1.2% rise in non-ferrous metals and wires [10][12] Group 4: Key Industry Price Changes - The coal mining and washing industry saw a year-on-year price drop of 16.8%, while the oil and gas extraction industry experienced an 8.6% decline [10][12] - The non-ferrous metal mining industry reported a year-on-year price increase of 13.9% [10][12] - The food manufacturing industry experienced a slight decline of 1.3% year-on-year [10][12]

Group 1 - The effects of anti-involution policies are beginning to show in the PPI data, with commodity price increases leading to price recovery in downstream industries [1][3] - In August, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, while the PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [1][2] - The core CPI has shown resilience, with a significant year-on-year increase, despite food prices being a major drag due to the pig cycle [1][2] Group 2 - Food price declines are primarily driven by pork and egg prices, with the pig cycle in a bottoming phase and high inventory levels affecting egg prices [2] - The PPI data reflects a recovery in upstream mining prices, with coal mining and black metal industries showing month-on-month increases of 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [3] - The anti-involution policy focuses on addressing overcapacity caused by "herd investment" in downstream industries, aiming for more sustainable price recovery [3]

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

Core Insights - In August 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and month-on-month prices remained stable after a 0.2% decline [1] Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In August, the prices of production materials fell by 3.2%, contributing approximately 2.40 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI. The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 11.5%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 4.1% and 2.2%, respectively [2] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.45 percentage points. Food prices fell by 1.7%, while clothing prices remained stable, and general daily goods prices increased by 0.4%. Durable consumer goods prices dropped by 3.7% [2] - In terms of purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 9.7%, chemical raw materials by 6.2%, and both black metal materials and agricultural products by 5.6%. Prices for construction materials and non-metallic products fell by 4.7%, while textile raw materials decreased by 2.0%. Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 4.7% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In August, production material prices increased by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to the overall PPI increase. The mining industry saw a 1.3% rise, while raw materials increased by 0.2%, and processing prices remained unchanged [3] - Living material prices decreased by 0.1%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.03 percentage points. Food prices rose by 0.1%, clothing prices were stable, while general daily goods and durable consumer goods prices fell by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - For purchase prices, construction materials and non-metallic products decreased by 1.4%, while chemical raw materials and agricultural products fell by 0.4%. Fuel and power prices increased by 0.7%, and black metal materials rose by 0.6%. Prices for non-ferrous metal materials, wires, and textile raw materials all saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3]

Core Insights - In July 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Liaoning decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The Industrial Producer Price Index (IPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, with a slight month-on-month decline of 0.2%, which is a narrowing of the previous month's decline by 0.7 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The prices of production materials decreased by 5.0% year-on-year in July, with the mining industry down by 10.7%, raw materials down by 5.8%, and processing industry down by 3.7% [1] - Consumer goods prices fell by 9.5% year-on-year, with durable goods down by 15.1%, food down by 5.5%, general daily necessities down by 2.2%, while clothing saw a slight increase of 0.1% [1] Raw Material Price Movements - In July, the prices of nine major raw materials showed a mixed trend with two categories increasing and seven decreasing [1] - Textile raw materials increased by 1.7%, and non-ferrous metals and wire materials increased by 1.4% [1] - Conversely, building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 0.9%, wood and pulp decreased by 1.0%, other industrial raw materials and semi-finished products decreased by 1.1%, chemical raw materials decreased by 7.9%, black metal materials decreased by 8.7%, agricultural and sideline products decreased by 9.9%, and fuel and power decreased by 12.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the national industrial producer price index showed a month-on-month decline in both the producer's ex-factory prices and the purchasing prices, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial prices [1][3]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the purchasing prices fell by 4.5% [1][3]. - The average decline from January to July for ex-factory prices was 2.9%, and for purchasing prices, it was 3.2% [1][3]. - The prices of production materials dropped by 4.3%, significantly impacting the overall ex-factory price level [3][7]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with production materials contributing to a decline of approximately 0.17 percentage points [6][7]. - The purchasing prices of industrial producers fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with notable declines in fuel and power prices by 0.6% and black metal materials by 0.7% [6][7]. Group 3: Breakdown of Price Changes by Category - In the ex-factory price category, the mining industry saw a significant decline of 14.0% year-on-year, while the processing industry experienced a decrease of 3.1% [3][7]. - For purchasing prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 10.8%, and black metal materials dropped by 8.0% [5][7]. - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 3.5%, while general daily goods saw a slight increase of 0.6% [3][7].

Core Insights - In July 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the industrial producer purchase price index (PPPI) fell by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month respectively [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI dropped by 3.6%, and the PPPI decreased by 4.5% [1] - For the average from January to July, the PPI declined by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, and the PPPI fell by 3.2% [1] Price Changes in July - In July, the prices of production materials decreased by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI [3] - The mining industry saw a price drop of 14.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 3.1% respectively [3] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.6%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.42 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [3] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In July, the production materials prices decreased by 0.2%, affecting the overall PPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [8] - The mining industry prices fell by 0.2%, raw materials prices decreased by 0.1%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.3% [8] - Living materials prices also decreased by 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices declining by 0.6% [8] Purchase Price Changes - In the PPPI, fuel and power prices decreased by 10.8%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.5% [7] - Agricultural products prices fell by 4.6%, while construction materials and non-metallic materials prices decreased by 3.8% [7] - However, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [7]

Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the prices of production materials decreased by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [2] - The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 14.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 3.1%, respectively [2] - Consumer goods prices fell by 1.6%, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the month-on-month prices of production materials decreased by 0.2%, impacting the overall industrial producer price level by approximately 0.17 percentage points [7] - The mining industry prices decreased by 0.2%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [7] - Consumer goods prices also fell by 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices decreasing by 0.6% [7] Group 3: Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - The purchase prices for fuel and power decreased by 10.8%, while black metal materials and chemical raw materials saw declines of 8.0% and 6.5%, respectively [6] - Prices for agricultural products decreased by 4.6%, and construction materials and non-metallic materials fell by 3.8% [6] - Prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [6] Group 4: Key Industry Price Changes - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a price drop of 23.0%, while the oil and natural gas extraction industry saw a decrease of 12.6% [10] - The black metal mining industry prices fell by 9.1%, whereas the non-ferrous metal mining industry prices increased by 11.1% [10] - The food manufacturing industry prices decreased by 1.1%, while the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry prices remained stable [10]

Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the producer prices for industrial goods saw a decline in production material prices by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decrease in producer prices [3] - The mining industry experienced a significant price drop of 14.0%, while raw material prices fell by 5.4% and processing industry prices decreased by 3.1% [3] - Consumer goods prices decreased by 1.6%, impacting the overall producer price level by about 0.42 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [3] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the producer prices for industrial goods showed a month-on-month decline in production material prices by 0.2%, affecting the overall producer price level by approximately 0.17 percentage points [7] - The mining industry prices decreased by 0.2%, raw material prices fell by 0.1%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.3% [7] - Consumer goods prices also saw a decline of 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices decreasing by 0.6% [7] Group 3: Changes in Purchase Prices of Industrial Producers - In July, the purchase prices for industrial producers indicated a notable decline in fuel and power prices by 10.8%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.5% [6] - Agricultural and sideline product prices decreased by 4.6%, while construction materials and non-metallic materials fell by 3.8% [6] - Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [6]