2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

[tabl中e_山pa每ge日1点] 评 [table_subject] 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告·中山每日点评 分析师：方鹏飞 登记编号：S0290519010001 邮箱：fangpf@zszq.com 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 1.市场整体表现 表 1 主要指数涨跌幅度 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.09 | 北证 50 | -0.44 | | 深证成指 | -0.35 | 万得全 A | -0.15 | | 沪深 300 | -0.22 | 中证 500 | 0.23 | | 科创 50 | -1.11 | 红利指数 | 0.90 | 资源类板块表现突出 ——2 月 11 日 A 股市场点评 [中ta山bl证e_券inv研es究t]所 [[分ttaa析bbll师ee__：rree唐ssee晋aarr荣cchh]] 登记编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com 资料来源：Win ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The demand expectation of iron ore is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 is 762.0 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.07%. The持仓 is 497,918 hands, with a decrease of 9,039 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of iron ore (including imported and domestic) remained unchanged compared to the previous day [1] - **Basis**: The basis of I2605 against Jinbuba increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 71.1 yuan/ton, and against Chaote increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 94.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 17.0 yuan/ton, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 11.5 yuan/ton. Other price spreads also remained unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [1] - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in January was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a bearish view [1]

Group 1 - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, although it decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to two main factors: the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival and a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 5.0% in January, contributing to a 0.34 percentage point decrease in the CPI [1] Group 2 - The month-on-month increase in PPI was driven by three main factors: the ongoing construction of a unified national market leading to price increases in certain industries, increased demand boosting prices in sectors like artificial intelligence and winter clothing, and input factors causing price divergence across industries [2] - Specific industries such as cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.1%, continuing a four-month upward trend [2] - The demand for winter clothing, including cold-resistant garments and down processing, increased prices by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recovery in consumer demand in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and the Producer Price Index (PPI) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, while the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, driven by significant price increases in airline tickets (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [1] - The year-on-year increase in industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, expanded to 2.6%, with a notable rise in gold jewelry prices by 77.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Factors influencing the CPI slowdown include the timing of the Spring Festival, which affects the base for year-on-year comparisons, and the impact of declining international oil prices from late last year to early this year [2] - The PPI is expected to continue narrowing its decline, supported by the rebound in global commodity prices and policies aimed at reducing competition, with a significant possibility of positive year-on-year growth in PPI by the second quarter [2] - The upcoming base year rotation for CPI and PPI, starting in 2026, is projected to have a minimal impact on the monthly year-on-year indices, averaging around 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% [1][2] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices influenced by international oil price fluctuations [2][3] - Food prices fell by 0.7%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.11 percentage points in the CPI year-on-year, while service prices increased by 0.1%, adding about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In January, the producer price index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of month-on-month increases [4][5] - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market, increased demand in certain industries, and the transmission of international commodity prices [4][5] - Specific sectors such as cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.1%, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and basic chemical raw materials also turned positive [4] Group 3: Changes in Statistical Base Year - The National Bureau of Statistics has released CPI and PPI data based on a new base year of 2025, marking the first data release following this base year adjustment [6][7] - The average impact of this base year adjustment on the month-on-month CPI and PPI indices is approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, which is considered relatively minor [7] - The adjustment aims to enhance the representativeness of the price indices by reflecting the latest changes in consumer spending patterns, including the addition of new categories such as home security devices and internet medical services [7][8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year [1][4] - The year-on-year CPI growth rate declined mainly due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival, with food prices decreasing by 0.7%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [1][6] - Energy prices fell by 5.0% in January, contributing to a 0.34 percentage point decrease in the year-on-year CPI, with gasoline prices down 11.4% [1][6] Group 2: Core CPI and Consumer Demand - The core CPI continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the highest in six months, driven by higher prices for air tickets and travel services [2] - Prices for essential consumer goods remained stable, with fresh vegetable prices down 4.8% and pork prices up 1.2% [2][8] - The demand for various services, including household services and entertainment, showed moderate price increases, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][8] Group 3: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3][11] - The increase in PPI was influenced by the ongoing development of a unified national market, leading to price rises in sectors such as cement and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [2][3] - Input factors, including international metal prices, significantly affected domestic prices, with non-ferrous metal mining prices up 22.7% year-on-year [3][18] Group 4: Price Changes by Category - In January, food and beverage prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with significant declines in egg and meat prices impacting the CPI [6][11] - Other categories showed mixed results, with prices for household goods and services rising by 2.6% year-on-year, while transportation and communication prices fell by 3.4% [6][11] - The prices of industrial producer goods varied, with production materials experiencing a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, while living materials saw a decrease of 1.7% [13][15]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The CPI's month-on-month increase was driven by a 0.2% rise in both urban and rural areas, with non-food prices also increasing by 0.2% [3] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest in six months, influenced by rising prices for air tickets and travel agency fees, which increased by 5.7% and 2.0% respectively [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of narrowing decline [1][5] - Key factors for the PPI increase include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain sectors, such as artificial intelligence and digital technologies, which led to price increases in electronic semiconductor materials and external storage devices by 5.9% and 4.0% respectively [5] - The month-on-month increase in industrial purchase prices was 0.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, indicating a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [6] Group 3: CPI and PPI Base Period Rotation - The January CPI and PPI data represent the first release after the base period rotation, which is conducted every five years to ensure the price index reflects current consumer behavior [8][9] - The rotation includes adjustments to the "fixed basket" of goods and services, incorporating new categories such as electric vehicle power and internet medical services to better represent current consumption patterns [9][11] - The average impact of the base period rotation on the month-on-month CPI and PPI indices is approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, indicating a relatively minor effect [11]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a six-month high [1][4][8] - The decline in food prices by 0.7% contributed to a decrease in the CPI's year-on-year growth, with the previous year's high base due to the Spring Festival affecting the current comparison [5][6] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% indicates a sustained recovery in consumer demand, with significant price increases in services such as air tickets and travel agency fees [7][8] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a growth rate expansion of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][9] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial pricing [11] - Various sectors, including non-ferrous metal mining and manufacturing, showed significant price increases, while energy-related industries continued to experience price declines [10][11] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts expect a potential rebound in CPI growth in February due to the timing of the Spring Festival, which may influence consumer spending patterns [6][11] - The overall inflation trend is anticipated to align with the central bank's goal of a "moderate recovery," with PPI growth expected to steadily rise while CPI remains relatively stable [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of consumer demand in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The January CPI increase is influenced by the Spring Festival, with food prices showing a year-on-year decline, particularly in fresh vegetables and fruits, while pork prices also decreased [3] - The core CPI continues to rise, reaching its highest level in nearly six months, with notable increases in prices for air tickets, travel agency fees, and various services [4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicates that price improvements in certain industries are due to enhanced supply-demand adjustments and the rectification of excessive competition [6] - The recent CPI data release is the first following the "base period rotation" in 2025, which aims to better reflect changes in consumer behavior and ensure the representativeness of the "fixed basket" of goods [8][18] Group 3 - The "base period rotation" involves updating the categories and structure of the fixed basket of goods to adapt to changes in consumer spending patterns, conducted every five years [8][11] - The latest rotation has introduced new categories reflecting current consumption trends, such as home security devices and internet medical services, while expanding the survey coverage to approximately 120,000 points [20][22] - The publication of the CPI weights, which indicate the expenditure proportion of each category, enhances transparency and aligns with international standards, reflecting the increasing trend of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented consumption [24]