宏 观 总 量 2025 年 11 月 17 日 PPI 分析与预测 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： PPI 概况：中国 PPI 仅衡量工业品价格，采用"二分法"（生产资料主导走势）和"行业法"两套并 行的分类体系，以全面反映价格波动来源。 PPI 权重构成与核心驱动：PPI 的走势并非单纯由其权重高低决定，而是由权重与各类别价格变动幅 度共同作用的结果。从 PPI 编制方法看，中国 PPI 权重以工业行业销售产值占比为核心依据。计算机、电 气机械等行业权重虽高，但因价格稳定，对 PPI 整体影响有限。核心驱动由上游资源行业与基础材料主导 （如煤炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工），其价格波动对 PPI 有决定性影响——尽管部分行业（如煤炭）直 接权重不高，但通过行业波动性和成本传导效应产生巨大间接影响力。 PPI 走势展望：我们通过两种方法对 PPI 进行预测。第一种基于关键商品价格假设的测算显示，若煤 炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工价格维持，则 2026 年 PPI 同比增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in consumer prices and industrial producer prices in China, highlighting a decline in consumer prices and industrial producer prices, with specific emphasis on the impact of food prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the changes in various categories of goods and services [3][5][9]. Consumer Price Trends - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban areas seeing a decline of 0.2% and rural areas a decline of 0.5% [3]. - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.7% [3]. - The average CPI from January to September 2025 was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [3]. Food Price Impact - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline [5]. - Specific food items such as fresh vegetables, eggs, and pork saw significant price drops of 13.7%, 11.9%, and 17.0% respectively, impacting the CPI by 0.35, 0.08, and 0.26 percentage points [5]. - Conversely, seafood prices increased by 0.9%, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the CPI [5]. Industrial Producer Price Trends - In September 2025, the industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [9]. - The average industrial producer price from January to September 2025 was down 2.8% year-on-year [9]. Price Changes in Industrial Inputs - The prices of industrial producer inputs, such as fuel and power, decreased by 8.1%, while chemical raw materials and agricultural products also saw declines of 5.5% and 5.4% respectively [11]. - In September, the prices of industrial producer outputs remained stable, with production material prices unchanged [11]. - Year-on-year, the prices of production materials fell by 2.4%, with significant declines in mining and raw materials sectors [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].