Group 1 - In January 2026, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it increased by 0.4%, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The industrial producer purchase price index also saw a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; month-on-month, it increased by 0.5%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 2 - In January, the prices of production materials decreased by 1.3%, contributing approximately 1.06 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices; within this category, mining industry prices fell by 8.1%, raw materials prices decreased by 2.0%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.4% [2] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.7%, contributing about 0.38 percentage points to the overall decline; food prices fell by 1.9%, clothing prices decreased by 0.7%, and prices of general daily goods and durable consumer goods both declined by 1.8% [2] - In terms of purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 7.1%, chemical raw material prices fell by 5.8%, and construction materials and non-metallic prices dropped by 4.7%; however, prices of non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 16.1% [2] Group 3 - Month-on-month, production material prices increased by 0.5%, contributing approximately 0.37 percentage points to the overall increase in industrial producer prices; mining industry prices decreased by 1.7%, while raw materials prices rose by 0.7% and processing industry prices increased by 0.5% [2] - Living material prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, contributing about 0.01 percentage points to the overall increase; food prices decreased by 0.1%, clothing prices fell by 0.3%, and general daily goods prices dropped by 0.1%, while durable consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% [2]

1月，在工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降1.3%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约1.06 个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降8.1%，原材料工业价格下降2%，加工工业价格下降0.4%。生活资 料价格下降1.7%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.38个百分点。其中，食品价格下降1.9%，衣 着价格下降0.7%，一般日用品、耐用消费品价格均下降1.8%。 北京商报讯（记者 和岳）2月11日，国家统计局数据显示，今年1月，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下 降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。工业生产者购进 价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点；环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 ...

Group 1 - In January, the producer price index (PPI) for industrial producers showed a decline in the prices of production materials by 1.3%, contributing approximately 1.06 percentage points to the overall decrease in the PPI [2][10] - The prices in the extraction industry fell by 8.1%, while raw material prices decreased by 2.0%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.4% [2][10] - Prices for living materials decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.38 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.9% and clothing prices down by 0.7% [2][10] Group 2 - In terms of year-on-year changes, the PPI for industrial producers decreased by 1.4%, with production materials down by 1.3% [10] - The extraction industry saw a significant year-on-year price drop of 8.1%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 2.0% and 0.4%, respectively [10] - Living materials prices also fell by 1.7%, with food and clothing prices contributing to this decline [10] Group 3 - In January, the PPI for industrial producers increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with production materials rising by 0.5%, contributing approximately 0.37 percentage points to the overall increase [7][10] - The extraction industry prices decreased by 1.7%, while raw materials and processing industries saw increases of 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively [7][10] - Living materials prices rose slightly by 0.1%, with food prices down by 0.1% and clothing prices down by 0.3% [7][10] Group 4 - The purchasing prices for industrial producers showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, with notable increases in the prices of non-ferrous metals and wires by 4.5% [8][10] - Fuel and power prices decreased by 0.7%, while building materials and non-metallic prices fell by 0.6% [8][10] - Year-on-year, the purchasing prices for industrial producers decreased by 1.4%, with fuel and power prices down by 7.1% [10]

2026年1月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。工业生产者购进 价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点；环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 1月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降1.3%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约1.06个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降8.1%，原材 料工业价格下降2.0%，加工工业价格下降0.4%。生活资料价格下降1.7%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平下降约0.38个百分点。其中，食品价格下降 1.9%，衣着价格下降0.7%，一般日用品、耐用消费品价格均下降1.8%。 一、工业生产者价格同比变动情况 工业生产者购进价格中，燃料动力类价格下降7.1%，化工原料类价格下降5.8%，建筑材料及非金属类价格下降4.7%，黑色金属材料类、农副产品类价 格均下降2.9%，纺织原料类价格下降2.2%；有色金属材料及电线类价格上涨16.1%。 二、工业生产者价格环比变动情况 1月份，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格上涨0.5%，影响工业生产者出厂价格总水平上涨约0.37个百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has shown a zero increase over the past 15 years, despite a significant GDP growth of 250% during the same period, indicating a persistent weakness in producer prices and underlying demand issues [3][4][41]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Historical Context - The PPI has been in a negative growth phase since October 2021, marking 39 consecutive months of year-on-year decline by December 2025 [1]. - From 2012 to 2025, there were 111 months of negative PPI, indicating that two-thirds of this period experienced deflation in producer prices [1][4]. - The PPI index, set at 100 in December 2010, remained unchanged at 100 by December 2025, reflecting no price increase over 15 years [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth vs. PPI - China's GDP grew from less than 40 trillion yuan in 2010 to over 140 trillion yuan by 2025, a 2.5 times increase, while the broad money supply (M2) increased 3.68 times during the same period [4]. - Despite significant economic growth, the PPI's lack of increase raises questions about the underlying demand and pricing power within the economy [4][41]. Group 3: Factors Influencing PPI - The PPI's long-term decline is attributed to weak demand, particularly after the peak of the real estate market in 2021, which has affected both upstream and downstream price transmission [39][41]. - The relationship between real estate investment and PPI indicates that a downturn in real estate correlates with a decline in producer prices, as seen in historical data [34][41]. - The inability of upstream price changes to effectively transmit to downstream prices is exacerbated by high competition in the downstream sectors and insufficient demand [20][39]. Group 4: External Influences and Export Dynamics - Export dynamics play a crucial role in influencing midstream product prices, with a significant portion of manufacturing exports being affected by global demand fluctuations [24][26]. - The export price index has seen a notable decline, indicating that reliance on price competition to maintain export volumes may not be sustainable [26][28]. - The overall weak demand in the domestic market, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer confidence, has further constrained PPI recovery [28][39]. Group 5: Recommendations for Economic Policy - To address the persistent weakness in PPI, it is essential to adjust the supply-demand relationship by expanding effective demand, particularly through increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [41][49]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is suggested as a means to support consumer spending and alleviate overcapacity issues in various industries [41][49]. - The focus should shift towards enhancing consumer income through government policies, which may involve restructuring fiscal spending to prioritize direct transfers to households [41][49].

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a narrowing decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. For the entire year of 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In December, the prices of production materials decreased by 2.1%, contributing approximately 1.53 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI. Specifically, the mining industry saw a price drop of 4.7%, raw materials decreased by 2.6%, and processing industries fell by 1.6% [3]. - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.3%, contributing about 0.35 percentage points to the overall PPI decline. Food prices fell by 1.5%, clothing prices decreased by 0.1%, while general daily necessities increased by 1.4%, and durable consumer goods dropped by 3.5% [3]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In December, the prices of production materials increased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the overall PPI increase. The mining industry prices rose by 0.8%, raw materials increased by 0.6%, and processing industries saw a rise of 0.2%. Prices of living materials remained stable [7]. - Within living materials, food prices decreased by 0.1%, clothing prices increased by 0.2%, general daily necessities rose by 0.5%, while durable consumer goods fell by 0.2% [7]. Group 3: Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - The purchase prices of industrial producers showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with a decrease of 3.0% for the entire year of 2025. Month-on-month, the purchase prices increased by 0.4% [9]. - Notable declines in purchase prices included building materials and non-metallic products down by 6.4%, fuel and power down by 5.7%, and chemical raw materials down by 4.9%. Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 10.5% [6]. Group 4: Price Changes in Major Industries - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a month-on-month increase of 1.3% but a year-on-year decline of 8.9%. The oil and gas extraction industry saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year decline of 11.5% [10]. - The non-ferrous metal mining industry had a month-on-month increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 24.0%, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest increase since August 2023[2] - The cumulative CPI for January to December 2025 was 0.0%, indicating a stagnation in price growth over the year[1] - The main drivers for the December CPI increase included rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather, consumer promotion policies boosting appliance and vehicle prices, and an increase in international gold prices[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.2% decline in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% for the year[1] - The December PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of rising prices[6] - Key factors contributing to the PPI changes included improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific increases of 3.7% and 2.8% in mining and refining respectively[7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 was characterized by weak demand and a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, leading to a continued decline in PPI[10] - Looking ahead to January 2026, the CPI is expected to drop to around 0.2% year-on-year due to a higher base effect from the previous year and seasonal price fluctuations[5] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a continued low inflation environment, with an expected annual CPI of approximately 0.4%[5]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][10]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes - In December, the producer prices for industrial producers saw a decrease in production materials by 2.1%, contributing approximately 1.53 percentage points to the overall decline in producer prices [4]. - The mining industry experienced a price drop of 4.7%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 2.6% and 1.6%, respectively [4]. - Consumer goods prices fell by 1.3%, with food prices down by 1.5% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [4][11]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes - In December, the producer prices for industrial producers increased by 0.2%, with production materials rising by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the overall increase [8]. - The mining industry saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.8%, while raw materials and processing industries increased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively [8]. - Consumer goods prices remained stable, with food prices slightly decreasing by 0.1% and general daily necessities increasing by 0.5% [8][11]. Group 3: Industrial Purchase Prices - The purchase prices for industrial producers showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10][11]. - Significant declines were noted in building materials and non-metallic products by 6.4%, and fuel and power by 5.7% [7][11]. - Prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 10.5%, indicating a contrasting trend within the industrial purchase prices [7].

Group 1: Yearly Overview - In December 2025, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, there was a 0.2% increase, which is an expansion of 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the industrial producer's ex-factory prices fell by 2.6%, while the industrial producer's purchase prices decreased by 3.0% [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Changes - In December, the prices of production materials decreased by 2.1%, contributing approximately 1.53 percentage points to the overall decline in ex-factory prices; within this category, mining industry prices fell by 4.7%, raw materials industry prices decreased by 2.6%, and processing industry prices dropped by 1.6% [4] - The prices of living materials decreased by 1.3%, impacting the overall ex-factory price level by about 0.35 percentage points; food prices fell by 1.5%, clothing prices decreased by 0.1%, while general daily necessities prices increased by 1.4%, and durable consumer goods prices dropped by 3.5% [4] Group 3: Month-on-Month Changes - In December, the ex-factory prices of production materials increased by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the overall increase in ex-factory prices; mining industry prices rose by 0.8%, raw materials industry prices increased by 0.6%, and processing industry prices went up by 0.2% [8] - Living materials prices remained stable; food prices decreased by 0.1%, clothing prices increased by 0.2%, general daily necessities prices rose by 0.5%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 0.2% [8] Group 4: Purchase Price Changes - In the industrial producer's purchase prices, building materials and non-metallic prices decreased by 6.4%, fuel and power prices fell by 5.7%, chemical raw materials prices dropped by 4.9%, agricultural products prices decreased by 4.1%, black metal materials prices fell by 3.3%, and textile raw materials prices decreased by 1.9%; however, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 10.5% [7]