点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with a weak recovery phase, but there are structural resilience highlights in the REITs market [2][4] - The average performance completion rate of public REITs projects exceeded 100%, indicating stable performance realization [2][3] - The forced dividend characteristic of public REITs is emphasized, with an average of 2 dividend distributions expected in 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The operating resilience of REITs projects is attributed to controllable asset supply-demand contradictions, alignment with policy directions, and stable payment terminal projects [2][4] - The average rental income of second-tier industrial park projects is projected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, while first-tier parks are adopting strategies to maintain occupancy rates [5][6] - The logistics real estate market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with average effective rent declining by 4.0% year-on-year [7][8] Group 3: Investment Structure - Institutional investor participation in public REITs reached a record high of 96.45%, with brokerage firms becoming a significant pricing force [3][4] - The insurance sector's participation remained stable compared to the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to incremental allocation [3][4] Group 4: Sector Performance - Retail properties are entering a phase of stock competition, with over half of key cities experiencing a decrease in vacancy rates, although rental prices remain under pressure [9][10] - The rental housing market is seeing increased supply, but listed projects are maintaining operational resilience, with overall income growth of 0.6% year-on-year [10][11] - Toll revenue for expressways is under pressure due to various factors, but there is a gradual improvement in performance observed in Q4 2024 [12][13]