Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [1] Core Insights - The REITs industry is experiencing operational divergence, with varying performance across different sectors. The overall market sentiment is improving, creating potential investment opportunities despite ongoing pressures [5][6] - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry is approximately 2170.96 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1109.16 billion yuan [1] Summary by Sections Industrial Park Sector - The industrial park sector faces significant pressure due to oversupply in major cities, leading to a general decline in rental rates and occupancy [5][12] - Increased competition and a rise in supply have resulted in a downward trend in revenue and EBITDA for many projects [12] - Some projects are adjusting strategies, such as lowering rents and offering customized services to attract tenants [5][12] Warehousing and Logistics Sector - Demand is differentiated, with essential industries like pharmaceuticals and e-commerce supporting occupancy rates, while small tenants show weak demand [5] - The sector is experiencing rental pressure due to increased supply in many regions [5] Affordable Rental Housing Sector - This sector remains the most stable, with occupancy rates consistently above 90% and minimal rental fluctuations [5] - Demand is driven by new citizens and corporate employees, providing strong resilience against market changes [5] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector shows stable occupancy rates above 90%, benefiting from asset upgrades and marketing strategies [5] - Rental income performance varies, with shopping centers seeing growth while outlet and farmer's market types face short-term fluctuations [5] Highway Sector - The highway sector has seen improved traffic volumes due to seasonal travel, although attention is needed on network diversion impacts [5] - Revenue growth is primarily driven by increased passenger traffic during peak travel seasons [5] Municipal Utilities Sector - Core indicators vary significantly due to industry characteristics, influenced by seasonal cycles and policy adjustments [5] Energy Sector - Performance heavily relies on resource endowments and policies, with national subsidy mechanisms being a key variable affecting distributable amounts [5] Data Center Sector - The customer base is primarily large enterprises, maintaining high occupancy and billing rates, indicating stable cash flow [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite ongoing pressures, there are structural opportunities for investment, particularly in fundamentally sound assets. It recommends considering projects with reasonable valuations and potential for recovery [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the public - offering REITs market expanded in quality under normal - state issuance. With the dual - wheel drive of "first - offering + expansion - offering", the total market capitalization exceeded 220 billion yuan, and the market ecosystem became more mature. In 2026, it is expected to issue 20 - 30 projects, and the differentiation among projects will intensify [3][11]. - Expansion - offering is an inevitable path for the development of China's public - offering REITs market. In 2025, the expansion - offering channel reopened, and in 2026, with policy implementation and process optimization, it may become another main line in the market [3]. - The secondary market of REITs in 2025 showed a "rising first and then falling" trend. To improve liquidity, policy support is expected, such as including REITs in the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect, launching REITs - ETF and index fund products, and guiding long - term funds like annuities and pensions to enter the market [3]. - The fundamentals of different asset types of REITs have shown different trends. Investors should select Alpha assets to make investment decisions [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.审度首发新常态，洞见估值新平衡 - **2025 First - offering Situation** - From January to October 2025, 19 REITs started the recruitment process, with an average of 2 per month, slower than in Q4 2024. The total first - offering scale was 38.7 billion yuan, about 40% less than in 2024. Two new IDC - REITs were added, enriching the asset types [3][11]. - The net - underwriting and online subscription yields of REITs were calculated. The net - underwriting yield was significantly higher than the online yield. The net - underwriting yield of 10 - 200 million yuan of funds was the highest, reaching 3.50% [13][15]. - The strategic placement of REITs in 2025 had a 100% winning rate and an average floating profit of 35%. The number of strategic investment institutions increased to 275, a 6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The number of new - offering products increased to nearly a thousand, and the winning rate dropped below 1%. In October, due to limited initial listing gains and overlapping fundraising periods, the enthusiasm for new - offering decreased, and the winning rate rebounded [20][22]. - In terms of institutional participation, 270 institutions participated in the net - underwriting inquiry, a 69% increase from 2024. Among them, the number of securities firms, insurance funds, private funds, and public funds increased significantly. Insurance funds led in terms of the proposed subscription amount, followed by securities firms [28]. - The strategic placement became more difficult for institutions to obtain. The number of strategic placement institutions per REIT reached a new high, indicating increased scarcity [34]. - **Valuation and Pricing** - From January to October 2025, the first - day and first - four - day closing cumulative increases of REITs reached new highs. However, since September and October, as the first - offering valuation increased, the initial listing gains narrowed, and the net - underwriting quotation became more cautious [39]. - From January to September 2025, the first - offering valuation had an average discount of 25%. Since October, the discount rate has significantly narrowed to less than 10%, and even less than 5% for some projects [40]. - **2026 First - offering Expectations** - Policy support is expected to expand the market and increase the number of asset types. The approval efficiency will be improved, and the average time from acceptance to registration will be shortened to 100 days [45][57]. - The expected number of first - offerings in 2026 is 20 - 30, with a relatively small average fundraising scale. The differentiation among projects will intensify, and the initial listing gains are expected to narrow to 5% - 10% [64][71]. - Under the neutral scenario, the net - underwriting and online new - offering yields of 10 - million - 100 - million - yuan funds are expected to be 3.21% and 0.61% respectively [75]. 3.2.扩募潮起谋新篇，资产混装开新局 - **Importance of Expansion - offering** - Due to high - dividend requirements and leverage limitations, expansion - offering is an important way for the external expansion of public - offering REITs. It can optimize the asset portfolio and improve the anti - risk ability [81]. - **Policy Changes** - In September 2025, the 782nd document shortened the expansion - offering threshold from 12 months to 6 months and supported cross - industry asset mixing, which is expected to shorten the expansion - offering cycle and enrich the asset types [86]. - **2025 Expansion - offering Situation** - After the first four REITs' expansion - offerings in 2023, the expansion - offering channel reopened in 2025. By October, 2 REITs' expansion - offering shares were listed, 3 were in the process, and 3 were under review. The issuance methods were diversified, including private placement and rights offering [90]. - The returns of investors participating in the expansion - offering mainly come from the market discount at the time of issuance and the increase in the dividend rate. The initial batch of expansion - offering projects had losses in the bidding and strategic placement, but 2 projects still had floating profits by the end of October [93][94]. - **Potential Expansion - offering Projects** - Many original equity holders of listed REITs hold potential expansion - offering assets. There are currently 5 expansion - offering projects in progress, and the AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT is the first project with mixed - asset expansion (photovoltaic + hydropower) [100][101]. - **Case Studies of Expansion - offering Projects** - The Beijing Affordable Housing REIT's expansion - offering assets are slightly inferior in quality to the first - offering assets, but the overall dividend rate is expected to increase [109]. - The AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT's expansion - offering of "photovoltaic + hydropower" is expected to significantly increase the net profit, EBITDA, and distributable amount in 2026, and the cash distribution rate will also increase [117]. - The Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT plans to expand by purchasing the Suzhou Kunshan Mixc project. After the expansion, the 2026 combined predicted dividend rate is expected to increase by 0.23 pct [119]. 3.3.长钱定盘亦凝滞，活水破局方致远 - **2025 Market Review** - In 2025, the REITs market showed a "rising first and then falling" trend. The first half was supported by the low - interest rate environment, while the second half was affected by factors such as stock market diversion, rising interest rates, unlocking pressure, and weakening fundamentals. In Q4, some defensive assets' performance was excellent, and some configuration funds began to enter the market [122][124]. - **Investor Structure** - As of the first half of 2025, securities firms and insurance companies dominated the REITs market. Their "heavy - configuration, light - trading" strategy restricted the secondary - market liquidity. Different types of institutions had different configuration preferences [128]. - **Measures to Improve Liquidity** - Including REITs in the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect, launching REITs - ETF and index fund products, and guiding long - term funds like annuities and pensions to enter the market are expected to improve the market liquidity [131]. 3.4.基本面殊途已现，精选Alpha定乾坤 - **Affordable Housing REITs** - In the past five quarters, the affordable housing REITs showed a pattern of "stable quantity and differentiated price". In 2026, the rental market will be affected by factors such as supply and tenant preferences in different regions. Rents in first - tier cities are expected to decline slightly, while those in core second - tier cities may stabilize or rise slightly [137]. - **Consumption REITs** - In 2025, the consumption REITs' operation was stable. The rental rate and collection rate remained high, and the rental efficiency fluctuated seasonally. With the adjustment of the supply - demand relationship and the release of new consumption demands, the asset managers of REITs adjusted the tenant mix. The increase in CPI in October is expected to support the valuation of consumption REITs [140].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the third-quarter performance of 73 REITs, highlighting the differentiated operational resilience across various sectors and regions, with a focus on short-term operational stability [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The industrial park sector shows structural resilience in core areas, while facing challenges in second-tier cities due to intensified market competition [4][8]. - The logistics and warehousing sector continues to exhibit operational resilience among projects linked to key tenants and leading operators [4][12]. - The rental housing sector maintains operational resilience, with some market-driven projects experiencing slight rental declines but improved occupancy rates [4][12]. - The consumer sector's listed REITs show stable performance, although some projects experience seasonal fluctuations [4][12]. - Data centers report high utilization rates, indicating stable short-term operational performance [4][12]. - Highway projects see increased traffic volumes in Q3, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing network changes [4][12]. - Municipal environmental and energy projects generally report growth, with some experiencing challenges due to resource fluctuations and grid absorption pressures [4][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall distributable amount for Q3 increased by 19.6% quarter-on-quarter, although it declined by 1.2% year-on-year [5]. - The municipal environmental sector outperformed others, followed by energy, consumer, rental housing, highways, logistics, and industrial parks [5]. - The average completion rate for disclosed projects in 2025 is 28%, aligning with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Industrial Parks - Core area projects maintain high occupancy rates, while second-tier city projects face challenges, with Hefei High-tech REIT's occupancy rate dropping to 71.6% [8][10]. - Rental levels are under pressure, with significant declines in some projects, indicating a competitive environment [8][11]. Logistics and Warehousing - Projects with high proportions of related tenants show strong stability, while market-driven projects exhibit volatility [12][13]. - Some projects, such as Shunfeng REIT, report a decline in occupancy rates due to increased competition [12][13]. Municipal Environmental and Energy - Most municipal environmental projects report growth, with specific projects benefiting from price adjustments [4][12]. - Energy projects show mixed performance, with hydroelectric projects recovering while wind and solar face challenges [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [1]. Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a slight decline of 0.33% this week, while the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 500 saw increases of 1.23% and 1.78%, respectively [4][16]. - Newly listed data center REITs, namely Southern Wanguo and Southern Runze, both saw significant gains of 30% on their debut [6][20]. - The overall trading volume for REITs this week was 3.67 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase compared to the previous week [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total number of listed companies in the REITs sector is 73, with a total market capitalization of 221.233 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 103.698 billion yuan [1]. - The report highlights that 23 REITs increased in value, 1 remained stable, and 49 declined, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [20]. Key Events - Significant events include the listing of Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT on August 8, both achieving a 30% increase in their first trading day [9][14]. - Other notable updates include the registration effectiveness of various REIT projects and announcements regarding expansions and new acquisitions in the infrastructure sector [9][12]. Trading Performance - The trading volume for different REIT categories varied, with data-related REITs showing a remarkable increase of 100% in trading volume, while other categories like industrial parks and warehousing logistics saw declines [6][20]. - The report indicates that the correlation of REITs with various bond indices and stock indices varies, with a correlation of 0.33 with the Shanghai Composite and 0.37 with the CSI 500 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The second quarter reports of 66 REITs indicate a mixed performance across different sectors, with varying levels of operational pressure and resilience observed in different segments [3][4]. Group 1: Sector Performance Overview - Industrial parks are still under pressure due to new supply and demand contraction, with a need for time to reach a new balance in rental levels and occupancy rates. The revenue for this sector decreased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [3][5]. - Logistics and warehousing projects maintained a high occupancy rate of 94.3% in Q2, showing better resilience than expected despite rental pressures, with an average rental decline of only 2% [3][10]. - Affordable rental housing exhibited the least revenue fluctuation in Q2, maintaining stable occupancy and rental levels, while national rental prices continued to decline [3][4]. - Traditional retail faced a 5.5% quarter-on-quarter revenue decline due to seasonal factors, necessitating cautious long-term growth assessments [3][4]. - Highway projects showed significant performance differentiation, with freight traffic performing better than passenger traffic [3][4]. - The municipal environmental sector remained stable, with wastewater treatment fundamentals holding steady and seasonal characteristics in heating demand becoming evident [3][4]. - Energy projects showed improvement in wind resources, particularly offshore wind, outperforming gas and hydropower [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Market Trends - The total distributable amount for REITs decreased both year-on-year (down 3.1%) and quarter-on-quarter (down 5.4%), reflecting operational changes across projects [4]. - The market valuation has adjusted, presenting opportunities for quality project allocations, focusing on stable cash flow and potential turnaround opportunities [4][5]. - The logistics sector is expected to see significant new supply in the second half of 2025, with approximately 2.5 million square meters expected, primarily in key urban areas [10][11]. - Demand in the logistics sector is primarily driven by e-commerce and third-party logistics, with significant contributions from seasonal events like the 618 shopping festival [10][11]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In Beijing, the business park market saw no new projects in Q2, with a net absorption of 95,000 square meters, indicating a recovery in demand [6]. - Shanghai's business park market experienced a moderate recovery in demand, particularly from the TMT sector, which accounted for 41% of the total demand [7]. - The vacancy rate in key urban areas varies significantly, with the Pearl River Delta showing a low vacancy rate of 6.15%, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has a higher rate of 27.1% [11][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of June 2025, affected by factors such as high cumulative gains, stock market diversion, fundamental pressure, mid - year profit - taking, and rising interest rates, REITs have started to correct. Although there are short - term fluctuations and increasing disturbance factors in the second half of the year, it does not change the long - term allocation value of REITs. Attention should be paid to sectors with stable fundamentals such as affordable rental housing, consumption, and municipal environmental protection [1][10][17]. - From July 18th to July 25th, 2025, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market corrected, and the yields of credit bonds increased across the board. The net financing of corporate credit bonds decreased, while that of financial credit bonds increased significantly. In secondary trading, medium - and short - duration bonds were actively traded, and the trading of long - duration bonds increased slightly [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit Hotspots: Public Offering REITs Correction, Fundamentals Continuing from the First - Quarter Report - The public offering REITs total return index has fallen by 3.31% since June 20th, 2025, and has returned to the level at the end of May 2025. The upward trend in the first half of the year was mainly due to the low - interest - rate environment and capital under - allocation. Since the end of June 2025, it has started to correct [10]. - The fundamentals in the second - quarter report continued the trend of the first - quarter report. Affordable rental housing had stable performance; consumption was generally stable but more volatile; industrial parks continued to face pressure; warehousing and logistics performed better than industrial parks; highways were greatly affected by road network diversion; municipal environmental protection was generally stable; and the energy sector was highly differentiated [13][14][19]. - In the short term, projects with weak fundamentals face greater pressure due to interest - rate adjustments. In the second half of the year, although capital under - allocation will continue, disturbance factors increase. However, it does not change the long - term allocation value of REITs [17]. Market Review: Stock - Bond Seesaw Leads to Bond Market Correction, Credit Bond Yields Rising Across the Board - From July 18th to July 25th, 2025, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the interest - rate bonds corrected across the board, and the yields of credit bonds also increased across the board. The yields of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds in the medium - and short - ends increased by about 10BP, and the spreads of 1 - 3Y varieties increased by about 4BP. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally increased significantly, with the 3 - 10Y varieties increasing by about 12BP [3]. - Last week, the buying demand was still strong. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 16.847 billion yuan, while funds had a net sale of 26.377 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 330.1 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.17%. The median spreads of public bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries increased by 3 - 6BP across the board last week. The median spreads of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, with Inner Mongolia's spreads increasing by more than 10BP [3]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Declines, Financial Credit Bonds Significantly Increase - From July 21st to July 25th, 2025, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 324 billion yuan, a 15% month - on - month increase; financial credit bonds issued a total of 228.3 billion yuan, a 128% month - on - month increase. The net financing of corporate credit bonds was 28.1 billion yuan, a 39% month - on - month decrease, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 26.5 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 56.6 billion yuan. The net financing of financial credit bonds was 207.1 billion yuan [4]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, the average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [4]. Secondary Trading: Medium - and Short - Duration Bonds Actively Traded, Long - Duration Bonds Slightly Increasing - The actively traded entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, medium - and short - term, central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bonds' active trading entities are divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong, and core main platforms in relatively high - spread areas of large economic provinces (Shandong, Sichuan, Hunan, etc.). Real - estate bonds' active trading entities are still mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms within 1 - 3 years. Private - enterprise bonds' active trading entities are also mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms in the medium - and short - term [5]. - Among actively traded urban investment bonds, the proportion of bonds with a term of more than 5 years in trading volume was 4%, a slight increase from the previous week (3%) [5].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with a weak recovery phase, but there are structural resilience highlights in the REITs market [2][4] - The average performance completion rate of public REITs projects exceeded 100%, indicating stable performance realization [2][3] - The forced dividend characteristic of public REITs is emphasized, with an average of 2 dividend distributions expected in 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The operating resilience of REITs projects is attributed to controllable asset supply-demand contradictions, alignment with policy directions, and stable payment terminal projects [2][4] - The average rental income of second-tier industrial park projects is projected to decline by 5.4% year-on-year, while first-tier parks are adopting strategies to maintain occupancy rates [5][6] - The logistics real estate market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with average effective rent declining by 4.0% year-on-year [7][8] Group 3: Investment Structure - Institutional investor participation in public REITs reached a record high of 96.45%, with brokerage firms becoming a significant pricing force [3][4] - The insurance sector's participation remained stable compared to the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to incremental allocation [3][4] Group 4: Sector Performance - Retail properties are entering a phase of stock competition, with over half of key cities experiencing a decrease in vacancy rates, although rental prices remain under pressure [9][10] - The rental housing market is seeing increased supply, but listed projects are maintaining operational resilience, with overall income growth of 0.6% year-on-year [10][11] - Toll revenue for expressways is under pressure due to various factors, but there is a gradual improvement in performance observed in Q4 2024 [12][13]