Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Date**: March 21, 2025 - **Source**: Citi Research Core Insights 1. **Manufacturing PMI Forecast**: The Manufacturing PMI is expected to be around 51 for March, indicating a post-reopening high, reflecting a positive economic trajectory [1][5][11] 2. **EPMI Surge**: The Emerging Sectors PMI (EPMI) rose sharply from 49.0 in February to 59.6 in March, marking the second highest reading for March since 2019, suggesting strong momentum in the new economy [2][3] 3. **Old Economy Stability**: The old economy is showing resilience with home sales in top-30 cities increasing by 9.7% year-over-year in the first 20 days of March, cargo throughput at ports rising by 1.2% year-over-year, and stable retail auto sales with double-digit increases in sales volume [3][12][13] 4. **Policy Outlook**: Policymakers are likely in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations of a 50 basis points RRR cut in Q2 2025 and a 20 basis points rate cut in Q3 2025, as external economic pressures mount [1][3] Additional Important Details 1. **Sector Performance**: Improvement was noted across various segments including production, new orders, employment, and prices, indicating that emerging sectors are providing substantial support to the economy amid the "AI+" race [2] 2. **Cargo Throughput**: The impact of US tariffs has not yet been reflected in the data, with cargo throughput at ports showing steady growth [3][8] 3. **Retail Auto Sales**: The trade-in scheme continues to support auto sales, contributing to the stability observed in March [3][13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting both the strengths in emerging sectors and the stability of traditional sectors.

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade showed resilience in the first two months of the year, with exports reaching a historical high despite a slight overall decline in trade value [1][2]. Trade Performance - Total import and export value for the first two months was 6.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Exports were 3.88 trillion yuan, up 3.4%, while imports were 2.66 trillion yuan, down 7.3% [1]. - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 2.33 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, accounting for 60% of total exports, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Key Product Exports - Integrated circuit exports were 180.44 billion yuan, up 13.2%, and automobile exports were 116.02 billion yuan, up 3.7% [4]. - The growth in exports of automatic data processing equipment and components accelerated, achieving a double-digit growth rate of 11.7% [3]. Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN reached 1.03 trillion yuan, a growth of 4%, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner [5]. - Trade with the United States totaled 733.67 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%, with exports to the U.S. at 543.13 billion yuan, up 3.4% [5]. Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises accounted for 3.69 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a year-on-year increase of 2%, representing 56.4% of total foreign trade [8]. - High-tech product exports from private enterprises reached 624 billion yuan, making up 49.3% of the total for similar products [8]. Policy Support - The government is focusing on enhancing the business environment for private enterprises, particularly in cross-border financing and trade facilitation [9].