Core Insights - The I/O Fund has achieved a cumulative return of 326% since its inception in May 2020, equating to a 4.26x multiple, and an annualized return of 29.2%, outperforming major market indexes and tech-focused institutional funds [1][1] Performance Summary - In 2025, the I/O Fund recorded a portfolio return of 37%, surpassing the S&P 500 by 21% and the Nasdaq-100 by 17% [1][1] - The fund's equity strategy, excluding cryptocurrency, delivered a remarkable 56% return in 2025, ranking it among the top-performing U.S. equity-only portfolios [1][1] - Since its inception, the fund has outperformed the S&P 500 by 192% and the Nasdaq-100 by 152%, with a 294% lead over other institutional technology portfolios [1][1] Investment Strategy - The I/O Fund focuses on identifying AI companies early in their development cycle, contrasting with many firms that concentrate on established Big Tech companies [1][1] - Led by Beth Kindig, the fund has successfully identified multiple high-potential companies, including Bloom Energy, which yielded a 305% average return in 2025 [1][1] - The fund employs disciplined risk management, with Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley actively adjusting exposure based on market conditions [1][1] Research and Communication - Beth Kindig's quarterly AI reports, averaging 50 pages, leverage over 15 years of experience to identify lesser-known companies benefiting from increased AI capital expenditures [1][1] - Ridley conducts weekly webinars for Premium Research Members, covering market signals and risks, and provided timely sell alerts to avoid significant drawdowns [1][1] Verification of Performance - The I/O Fund engages an independent accounting firm for periodic audits, ensuring transparency and accuracy in reported performance [1][1]

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Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on February 16, 2026, for Presidents' Day, while global markets show a positive tone with U.S. stock futures indicating optimism [1] - International indexes reacted positively to cooling U.S. inflation data, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 0.22%, India's NIFTY 50 up 0.83%, and European markets also opening higher [2] Futures Market - U.S. futures indicate a positive start for Tuesday, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures both rising 0.4%, supported by a CPI report showing headline inflation at 2.4%, the lowest since early 2021 [3] Upcoming Market Events - Investors are preparing for significant economic data and corporate earnings, with the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday, focusing on potential rate cuts [4] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the advance estimate for Q4 GDP on Friday, with an expected annualized growth rate of 3%, down from 4.4% in Q3 [5] - Key earnings reports include Walmart on Thursday, Palo Alto Networks and Energy Transfer on Tuesday, and Occidental Petroleum and Booking Holdings on Wednesday [6] Major Stock News - Rivian Automotive shares surged over 26% following a new electric vehicle partnership and analyst upgrades, while Constellation Brands' stock fell 8% due to a leadership transition [7] - Nvidia shares dropped 2.2% amid concerns over AI capital expenditures, with other tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Google also facing pressure [8] - Coinbase Global shares increased by 16.5% after a strong quarterly update and a significant share buyback program [9] Commodities - Gold prices consolidated above $5,000 per ounce, driven by a softer inflation outlook and a weakening U.S. dollar [9]

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Core Insights - Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net investment income of 48 cents per share, meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year [1][8] - The total investment income for the fourth quarter was $137.4 million, a 12.8% increase from the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3][8] - Operating expenses rose significantly by 26.3% year-over-year to $54.9 million, impacting the bottom line [4][8] Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, net investment income was $1.91 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by one cent, and declined 4.5% from the previous year [2] - Total investment income for the full year reached $532.5 million, a 7.9% increase year-over-year, also exceeding estimates [3] Portfolio and Commitments - As of December 31, 2025, the fair value of Hercules Capital's total investment portfolio was $4.47 billion [5][6] - The company made $1.1 billion in gross new debt and equity commitments during the fourth quarter, with $522.3 million in gross new funding [5] Balance Sheet Position - Hercules Capital's net asset value increased to $12.13 per share from $11.40 a year earlier [6] - The company had $525.5 million in liquidity, including $57 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents [6] Market Outlook - Rising demand for customized financing is expected to support Hercules Capital's total investment income, although limited global diversification may restrict growth [7] - Efforts to enhance originations are likely to keep expenses high, which could hinder bottom-line growth [7]

Company Overview - Textron Inc. is based in Providence, Rhode Island, and operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance sectors globally, with a market capitalization of $17.1 billion. The company has six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance [1]. Stock Performance - Textron's shares have outperformed the broader market over the past year, surging 35.7%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 12.9%. Year-to-date, Textron stock is up 13.3%, contrasting with a slight dip in the S&P 500 [2]. - The company has also outperformed the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF, which gained about 48.7% over the past year and 8.3% year-to-date [3]. Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Textron reported a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year to approximately $4.2 billion, with adjusted EPS rising roughly 29% to $1.73. This growth was driven by higher aircraft deliveries at Textron Aviation and strong military demand at Bell, supported by operational improvements and easing supply-chain constraints. However, the positive results were overshadowed by a softer outlook for 2026, with adjusted EPS guidance of $6.40–$6.60 and warnings of lower manufacturing cash flow due to increased investment in the MV-75 program [5]. - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts expect Textron's EPS to grow by 7.1% to $6.53 on a diluted basis. The company has a strong earnings surprise history, beating consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters [6]. Analyst Ratings - Among the 16 analysts covering Textron stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of five "Strong Buy" ratings and 11 "Holds" [6]. - Recently, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu reiterated a "Buy" rating on Textron while adjusting the price target to $110 from $115, indicating a tempered valuation outlook but maintaining a positive investment stance. The current trading price is above the mean price target of $97.86, with a Street-high price target of $115 suggesting an upside potential of 16.5% [7].

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