Summary of Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. - **Industry**: Lithium and Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb95,384 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$55.20 - **Current Price**: HK$55.10 (as of January 29, 2026) Key Financial Results - **Preliminary Full-Year 2025 Results**: - Net profit of Rmb369-553 million, compared to a loss of Rmb7.9 billion in 2024, but below consensus expectations of Rmb777 million [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: - Estimated at Rmb189-373 million, an increase from Rmb95 million in 3Q25 [2] - **Full-Year 2025 Recurring Profit**: - Rmb240-360 million, with an implied recurring net profit of Rmb170-290 million in 4Q25, up from Rmb69 million in 3Q25 [2] Market Dynamics - **Lithium Price Increases**: - Notable increase of 19% quarter-over-quarter in 4Q25, with expectations of a further 61% increase in 1Q26, positively impacting Tianqi's profitability [2] Legal and Regulatory Updates - **Supreme Court of Chile Ruling**: - Tianqi received a final judgment regarding a Partnership Agreement with SQM and Codelco, dismissing a claim of illegality. This ruling is not expected to materially impact Tianqi's current profits [3][4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.43, with estimates increasing to Rmb2.67 in 2026 and Rmb3.01 in 2027 [6] - **Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue of Rmb11,087 million in 2025, increasing to Rmb21,117 million in 2026 and Rmb22,983 million in 2027 [6] Valuation Methodology - **Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model**: - Assumes a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash flow of 2% beyond the forecast period of 2025-2033 [9] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Higher-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources [11] Analyst Insights - **Industry View**: - The lithium industry is viewed as attractive, with expectations of strong performance over the next 12-18 months [6][34] Additional Information - **52-Week Stock Price Range**: - HK$60.30 to HK$19.00 [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: - HK$180 million [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, legal updates, and future projections.

Price Conclusion - The market remains bullish, with prices rising from 90,000 to nearly 190,000. The IRR for energy storage projects in northern regions has decreased from 9% to 6%. Further price increases could lead to a decline in IRR, but this may not impact prices significantly [1]. Balance Sheet Update - Initially, a surplus of 30,000 to 50,000 tons was expected in 2025, but adjustments indicate a tight balance for the entire year. The balance sheet for 2026-2030 has been revised to show deficits of -15,000, -6,000, -89,000, -189,000, and -440,000 tons respectively [1]. Supply - Overall data indicates that resource supply will reach 2.05 to 2.06 million tons in 2026, an increase of 413,000 tons from 2025. Lithium salt supply is projected to rise from 1.54 million tons to 1.91 million tons, an increase of 370,000 to 380,000 tons. The main contributors to this growth include the commissioning of the first phase of the Greenbushes project in Australia and the ramp-up of various salt lake projects [2]. - In 2026, lithium spodumene is expected to contribute an increase of 230,000 tons, with Africa contributing 140,000 tons, Australia 43,000 tons, and China 49,000 tons. Lithium mica is projected to add 38,000 tons, with specific contributions from various companies [2]. - A point of contention is Nigeria, where supply is expected to remain flat at around 500,000 tons of lithium concentrate, corresponding to 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with no incremental increase due to previously released inventory [2]. Demand - Domestic electric vehicle demand is expected to grow by 19% in 2026, covering both passenger and commercial vehicles, with projected sales of 16 million units in 2025. Each 1% increase in growth corresponds to an additional 160,000 vehicles and 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate [3]. - For electric heavy trucks, approximately 200,000 units are expected in 2025, with a forecast of 250,000 units in 2026. The battery capacity per vehicle may increase due to enhanced applications [3]. - Overseas electric vehicle markets, particularly Europe, are expected to grow by 20% in 2026, driven by subsidies in Germany, while the impact in the US and other markets is limited [4]. Energy Storage Demand - Actual shipments for 2025 are projected to be between 620-640 GWh, representing over 80% year-on-year growth. The forecast for 2026 has been revised from 880 GWh to a likely range of 900-950 GWh, with an aggressive scenario reaching up to 1,000 GWh. Domestic registered energy storage projects are expected to reach 1,200-1,300 GWh in the coming years [5]. Impact of Lithium Prices on Energy Storage - The sensitivity of IRR to lithium prices indicates that for every 50,000 increase in lithium price, the IRR for energy storage projects decreases by 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points. A price increase from 90,000 to 190,000 results in a 3 percentage point reduction in IRR. The central IRR for major northern projects has dropped from 9% to 6%, which remains viable, but further increases could delay projects if IRR falls below 6% [6].

Core Viewpoint - Stardust Power Inc. has appointed Mr. Bruce Czachor as General Counsel to enhance its legal and governance framework as the company progresses towards constructing a lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma [2][7]. Company Overview - Stardust Power Inc. is focused on developing battery-grade lithium carbonate to strengthen America's energy security by establishing resilient supply chains [8]. - The company is developing a lithium processing facility in Muskogee, Oklahoma, with an expected production capacity of up to 50,000 metric tons per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate [8]. Leadership Appointment - Mr. Bruce Czachor brings over 30 years of experience in legal, corporate governance, and executive leadership within publicly listed energy and mining companies [3]. - His previous role was as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Piedmont Lithium Inc., where he advised on corporate strategy, governance, and M&A, and led a successful cross-border public merger [3][4]. - Czachor's extensive experience in the lithium sector and his established global network are expected to strengthen Stardust Power's leadership team [4]. Educational Background - Mr. Czachor holds a J.D., magna cum laude, from New York Law School and a B.A. in Political Science from Binghamton University [6]. - He completed a Corporate Governance certification from the Wharton School in 2023 and is licensed to practice in New York, New Jersey, and California [6]. Management Commentary - CEO Roshan Pujari expressed that Czachor's expertise in corporate governance and capital markets makes him a valuable addition to the leadership team, particularly as the company advances its Muskogee refinery project [7]. - Czachor himself expressed enthusiasm about joining Stardust Power at a pivotal moment in the company's growth [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium - **Key Location**: Yichun, China Core Insights 1. **CATL Mine Restart Uncertainty**: The timeline for the restart of CATL's Jianxiawo mine remains uncertain, with expectations of delays until the second half of 2026 due to tailings and stricter environmental permit issues [4][2][4] 2. **Lithium Prices**: Current lithium prices are expected to remain elevated until the Jianxiawo mine restarts, with prices above Rmb120k/t inducing further supply [2][4][4] 3. **Cost of Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lepidolite mines has decreased to Rmb60k/t, with further reductions anticipated due to technological upgrades [2][4][4] 4. **Supply Expansion**: While current prices are encouraging supply expansion, the ramp-up in lithium production is slow, and significant increases in supply are not expected until 2028 [4][4][4] 5. **Recycling Potential**: Lopal can recycle 95% of lithium content from batteries, but current recycling supply is low and expected to ramp up significantly in 2028 [4][4][4] Additional Important Information 1. **Refinery Operations**: Lopal and CATL's joint venture currently processes only 2kt/month due to the suspension of CATL's mine, which typically provides about 40% of their feedstock [4][4][4] 2. **Technological Advancements**: The adoption of rotary kiln technology has contributed to the reduction in lepidolite processing costs, with expectations of further cost reductions [4][4][4] 3. **Long-term Supply Options**: Lopal is exploring sourcing spodumene from Africa and Australia and building refineries in the Middle East as long-term supply options [4][4][4] Market Sentiment - **Short-term Trading Opportunity**: There is a perceived short-term trading opportunity in lithium equities as stock prices are expected to catch up with lithium carbonate prices [2][2][4] - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors are delaying expectations for the restart of CATL's mine, reflecting a cautious outlook on medium-term lithium prices [2][2][4]

Core Insights - Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC) is recognized as one of the top lithium and battery stocks to invest in currently [1] - Scotiabank has reaffirmed its Sector Perform rating for LAC and increased the price target from $5 to $7, indicating a positive outlook despite a shortfall in EV demand projections [2] - The company has received significant support from the U.S. Administration and General Motors for large-scale lithium manufacturing, with the first DOE loan drawdown completed [3] Company Developments - LAC has capitalized $145.9 million in construction costs during the last quarter, bringing total capitalized costs to $720.0 million [3] - The engineering design of the project is over 80% complete, with the mechanical completion of the Phase 1 processing plant expected by late 2027 [3] - Key milestones include the installation of steel columns, completion of plant roads, and fabrication of pipe-rack sections, which are critical for project advancement [3] Market Position - While LAC shows potential as an investment, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Industry Overview - Energy storage technologies are expected to significantly increase lithium demand, surpassing electric vehicle demand by 2026 as utility-scale batteries become a major consumer [2] - Lithium prices have recovered 50% from June lows but remain less than one-sixth of late-2022 levels [2] - UBS projects a 55% increase in lithium demand from storage in 2026, compared to a 19% rise from electric vehicles [3] Company Insights - **Standard Lithium Ltd. (NYSE:SLI)**: - Number of hedge fund holders: 8 - Analysts' upside potential as of January 21: 2.90% - The company is involved in a joint venture for the Smackover Lithium project, with over $1 billion in financing secured [9][10] - Anticipates finalizing project funding and commencing construction in 2026 [11] - **Sigma Lithium Corporation (NASDAQ:SGML)**: - Number of hedge fund holders: 15 - Analysts' upside potential as of January 21: 24.22% - Recent operational updates have been deemed insignificant by analysts, with a potential equity raising on the horizon [13] - Net revenue increased by 69% quarter over quarter and 36% year over year, attributed to commercial partnerships [14]

Group 1 - The metal lithium sector is experiencing a significant rally, with Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies such as Yongxing Materials, Rongjie Co., Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tibet Mining are also seeing gains [1] - Previously, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future outlook for Sigma Lithium remains positive, driven by the demand for lithium in electric vehicle batteries and data center storage solutions [1][3]. Company Performance - Sigma Lithium's stock experienced volatility, with a recent increase of nearly 10% attributed to positive news regarding a peer company, Albermarle [1][2]. - The current stock price of Sigma Lithium is $13.47, with a market capitalization of $1.4 billion [4]. Industry Trends - Lithium is increasingly recognized as the primary material for electric vehicle batteries, despite a recent decline in EV sales growth [3]. - The demand for lithium is further supported by its use in battery storage solutions for data centers, a growing investment area [3][4]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have become more optimistic about Sigma Lithium, with HSBC upgrading its recommendation from hold to buy [3]. - The company is viewed as a more specialized and leaner operation compared to larger competitors, positioning it for robust growth in the lithium market [5].

Core Insights - Investing in lithium stocks has faced challenges due to extreme volatility in lithium prices, with spot lithium carbonate prices declining by approximately 90% after reaching new highs in November 2022 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The lithium market has experienced significant price fluctuations, impacting investment strategies and stock performance [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Dilantha De Silva is an experienced equity analyst with over 10 years in the investment industry, focusing on small-cap stocks often overlooked by Wall Street [1] - He has contributed articles to various investment platforms and has been featured on major financial news outlets [1]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - January 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the impact of high commodity prices on demand and supply dynamics across various sectors. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-January, with **solar and machinery** sectors showing weakness while **battery** demand remains strong [1] - The surge in metal prices has led to notable changes in downstream demand across sectors such as **consumer electronics**, **hardware manufacturing**, **copper cables**, and **aluminum** in industrial and construction areas, resulting in weaker or delayed orderbooks and rising metal inventories [1] - High-frequency data indicates that in the first two weeks of January, Chinese demand is down **1-9% year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **3-10% YoY** for aluminum and copper, while flat steel demand is up **3% YoY** [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply conditions remain heterogeneous, with consistent feedback on **cement capacity** cleaning up and ongoing capacity discipline in **coal**, but lackluster control in **steel production** [1] - Margin and pricing for **steel**, **copper**, **aluminum**, and **lithium** have improved, while **cement** and **coal** prices have remained stable [1] Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Demand is lower, with a **1-9% YoY** decline noted [1] - **Aluminum and Copper**: Demand has deteriorated significantly amid high prices, with a **3-10% YoY** decline reported [1] - **Steel**: Margins have improved, but production control remains weak [1] - **Battery Materials**: Strong demand persists, leading to price hikes in solar modules, AC, LFP cathodes, and battery cells [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates a mixed month-over-month (MoM) trend in forward orderbooks, with **19%** of respondents reporting a pickup in January for downstream sectors and **6%** for basic materials [2] Additional Observations - The report notes that in regions with strong demand or better supply structures, price hikes have begun in specific materials, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The overall sentiment reflects caution due to high commodity prices suppressing demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to price fluctuations [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of high commodity prices affecting demand and supply across various sectors. While some areas like battery materials show resilience, others like aluminum and copper are facing significant demand challenges. The mixed feedback from producers suggests a cautious outlook moving forward, with potential opportunities in regions with strong demand dynamics.