Summary of Key Points from the Multi-Industry Capex Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-industry capital expenditure (capex) trends, analyzing approximately €3.1 trillion of capex across around 4,000 companies in 26 different end markets [1][7][43]. Core Insights - **Medium-term Capex Growth**: The medium-term capex growth has been revised upward slightly, now indicating a 5.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2024-2028, which is a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous update in April [7][13]. - **2025 Capex Downgrade**: For 2025, the capex growth expectation has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9%, attributed to some spending being deferred to 2026 due to tariff and policy uncertainties [7][8][13]. - **Sector Performance**: - **Strong Growth Areas**: Technology (specifically Datacenters) and Utilities (Power grids, Renewables) are expected to see favorable capex environments, with companies like Legrand, Schneider, Siemens, Prysmian, and Nexans recommended for investment [7][26]. - **Weak Growth Areas**: Sectors such as Biotech, Pulp & Paper, and REITs are experiencing the largest cuts in capex growth [7][8]. Additional Insights - **Geographical Drivers**: The US remains the primary driver of strength in the capex tracker, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and interest rates. Europe is also expected to see strong investments in grid and defense [8][9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Capacity utilization is below historical median levels in Europe but aligns with historical medians in the US and China. Elevated asset age in sectors like Oil & Gas, Vehicles, Airlines, and Healthcare indicates a need for replacement capex [8][9][21]. - **Macro Risks**: Key risks to the capex estimates for 2025 include tariff-driven inflation, structural overcapacity in China, and competitiveness issues for core capex spenders in Europe [9][10]. Sector-Specific Capex Growth Projections - **Datacenters**: Expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.0% for 2024-2028, with a 36.5% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - **Renewables and Transmission**: Projected CAGR of 16.3% for 2024-2028, with 25.5% growth in 2025 [20]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated CAGR of 12.9% for 2024-2028, with 11.2% growth in 2025 [20]. - **Biotech**: Expected to decline with a CAGR of -8.1% for 2024-2028, and a -10.7% growth forecast for 2025 [20]. Conclusion - The capex tracker indicates a mixed outlook for various sectors, with technology and utilities poised for growth while others like biotech and pulp & paper face challenges. The overall capex environment remains healthy, but macroeconomic uncertainties could impact future investments [7][9][10].

Group 1 - CVR Energy, Inc. plans to release its second quarter 2025 earnings results on July 30, after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange [1] - A teleconference call to discuss the earnings results will be held on July 31 at 1 p.m. Eastern [1] - The teleconference will be accessible via webcast and archived for 14 days [2] Group 2 - CVR Energy is a diversified holding company engaged in renewables, petroleum refining, marketing, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing through its interest in CVR Partners, LP [4] - The company owns 37 percent of the common units of CVR Partners, LP [4]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8]. Core Insights - The reconciliation bill passed by Congress is viewed as better than expected for most subsectors within the renewables space, removing a major overhang for the industry [2][3]. - Incremental buying is recommended for companies such as NEE, AES, BE, and FSLR due to the supportive provisions of the legislation [2]. - Strong industry growth is anticipated at least until 2028, with leading developers expected to continue strong growth and gain market share into 2030 [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Large Scale Renewables - Full tax credits are available through mid-2030 for projects that started construction previously and for those starting through mid-2026 [3]. - The final version of the bill is slightly worse than initial expectations, but storage provisions remain favorable [3]. Manufacturing - Manufacturing tax credits remain unchanged, providing relief for FSLR [4]. Battery Storage - Tax credits for battery storage are significantly better than expected, available through 2033 before phasing down, positively impacting FLNC, NEE, and AES [4]. Residential Solar - The outcome for residential solar is challenging but better than bearish expectations for RUN, while ENPH and SEDG face more difficulties [5]. Fuel Cells - A new 30% tax credit for fuel cells through 2033 is a positive development for BE, enhancing the economic attractiveness of its products [6]. Nuclear - The nuclear sector remains neutral, with no significant changes for CEG, TLN, VST, and PEG [6]. Hydrogen - Clean hydrogen tax credits are better than expected, with elimination pushed to 2028, which is later than initially anticipated, providing modest positivity for PLUG [11]. Clean Fuel Production - Clean fuel production credits are extended through 2029, benefiting companies like DTE Energy and Dominion [20]. Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) Regulations - New restrictions on tax credits for projects involving prohibited foreign entities will begin in 2026, impacting eligibility based on material assistance thresholds [21][22]. Stock Ratings - Specific company ratings include Overweight for Bloom Energy Corp. (BE), First Solar Inc. (FSLR), and GE Vernova (GEV), while companies like Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) and Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) are rated Underweight [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Acciona Energia with a price target of €18 [1][18][37] Core Views - Consensus earnings estimates for Acciona Energia are considered overly optimistic, particularly regarding the impact of targeted disposals on future profits [1][18] - The company is expected to end 2025 with a smaller installed capacity than in 2024, leading to a year-on-year decline in underlying EBITDA for 2025 and 2026 [1][3][18] - The report forecasts net income for 2025-26 to be approximately 20%-40% below Bloomberg consensus estimates, indicating significant downside risk [4][26][27] Summary by Sections Installed Capacity and Growth - Acciona Energia plans to add 600 MW of capacity organically by 2025, but the announced disposal of 600 MW of domestic hydro assets implies no net growth in installed capacity [2][19] - Incremental divestments of €1.5-1.7 billion are expected, suggesting a minimum reduction of 1 GW in operational assets [2][19] EBITDA and Financial Performance - A decline in underlying EBITDA is anticipated for both 2025 and 2026 due to a shrinking installed base and lower power prices [3][22] - The report projects EBITDA for 2025 at €998 million and for 2026 at €961 million, contrasting with Bloomberg's consensus forecast of a 5%-10% increase in 2026 [3][24] Net Income Forecasts - The report estimates net income for 2025-26 to be around €135-145 million, significantly lower than the consensus estimate of €180-220 million [4][26][27] - This discrepancy suggests a potential for negative EPS revisions, which could further impact the share price [4][26] Valuation and Price Target - The price target of €18 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with 50% derived from the 2025E SOTP of €19.2/share and 50% from existing asset valuation [37][38] - The report indicates a 2.7% downside from the current price, compared to an average upside of 17% for peers [37][38]

Financial Performance - Q1 2025 - Sales and Merchandising Revenues reached $2,659 million, slightly down from $2,718 million in YTD '24[14] - Gross Profit increased to $153 million compared to $128 million in YTD '24[14] - Pretax Income decreased to $3 million from $14 million in YTD '24[14] - Adjusted EPS was $0.12, compared to $0.16 in YTD '24[14] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $57 million from $51 million in YTD '24[14] Agribusiness - Q1 2025 - Agribusiness revenues were $1,993 million, down from $2,061 million in YTD '24[21] - Agribusiness gross profit increased to $119 million from $100 million in YTD '24[21] - Agribusiness reported a Pretax loss of $10 million, compared to a $3 million profit in YTD '24[21] - Agribusiness Adjusted EBITDA was $31 million, compared to $29 million in YTD '24[21] Renewables - Q1 2025 - Renewables revenues increased to $666 million from $657 million in YTD '24[27] - Renewables gross profit increased to $34 million from $29 million in YTD '24[27] - Renewables Pretax income increased to $25 million from $24 million in YTD '24[27] - Renewables Adjusted EBITDA was $37 million, compared to $34 million in YTD '24[27] Cash and Debt - Cash from Operations Before Working Capital Changes was $57 million in Q1'25, compared to $48 million in Q1'24[16, 45] - Short-term Debt was $223 million as of 3/31/2025[16] - Long-term Debt was $651 million as of 3/31/2025[18] - Capital Spending for Q1'25 was $47 million[18]

Financial Performance - Icahn Enterprises L P reported a net loss attributable to IEP of $422 million for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $38 million for Q1 2024[6] - Adjusted EBITDA loss attributable to IEP was $287 million for Q1 2025, a decrease compared to an Adjusted EBITDA of $134 million for Q1 2024[6] - The Investment segment reported a net loss attributable to IEP of $224 million for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $23 million in Q1 2024[9, 12] - The Energy segment experienced a net loss attributable to IEP of $86 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net income of $49 million in Q1 2024[9] - The Automotive segment had a net loss of $27 million in Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $9 million in Q1 2024[9] Segment Highlights - The Investment segment's Funds had a net long notional exposure of 20% as of March 31, 2025, with returns of negative 8 4% for Q1 2025[12] - The Energy segment's consolidated Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $264 million to a loss of $61 million for Q1 2025, compared to $203 million in Q1 2024[15, 18] - Automotive Services revenue decreased by $23 million primarily due to reduced pricing and a shift of consumer behavior toward lower priced offerings[23] - Aftermarket Parts revenue in the Automotive segment decreased by $11 million due to the exit of the Aftermarket Parts business, completed in Q1 2025[22, 23] - Food Packaging Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to IEP decreased by $6 million compared to prior year quarter primarily due to lower price and higher manufacturing inefficiencies[26, 30] Liquidity and Net Asset Value - As of March 31, 2025, the indicative net asset value was approximately $3 billion, a decrease of $336 million compared to December 31, 2024[6] - Total Holding Company liquid assets were $3 781 billion as of March 31, 2025, including $1 318 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $2 463 billion in Investment Funds[32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The China Export Tracker focuses on the dynamics of China exports to the US amid tariff escalations, analyzing data from 48 corporates representing nearly 70% of China export value to the US [2][41] - Export orders from the US to Chinese corporates have stabilized at 92% of pre-tariff levels as of April 28, 2025, showing a slight recovery from 90% in mid-April [3][12] - The report indicates that nearly 20% of corporates have seen improvements in exports to non-US regions, particularly in sectors like pet treats and construction machinery [4] - China shipments and production are in substantial decline, with 35% of US orders being filled from China and 57% from ex-China facilities [11][17] - Corporates report that 40% of their products are experiencing high impacts on shipments to the US, with a significant portion seeing declines of over 50% [12][18] Summary by Sections Export Orders and Shipments - Export orders from the US have largely remained unchanged, with a slight increase noted [3] - Shipments from China are significantly impacted, with many corporates reporting a decline in production and shipments [5][12] Supply Chain Adjustments - Corporates are adjusting supply chains, with many utilizing ex-China production facilities to fulfill US orders [11][13] - Nearly half of the corporates have reported stable or increasing inventory levels in the US, providing a buffer against supply chain disruptions [21][23] Pricing Discussions - Approximately 60% of corporates are engaged in pricing negotiations, with expectations that end users will absorb most tariff costs [25][29] - There is a consensus that tariffs above 30-40% could become unmanageable for the global supply chain [26][31] Capital Allocation and Expansion Plans - Nearly 60% of corporates have ex-China production facilities, with 63% planning to expand or establish overseas capacity despite tariff uncertainties [32] - Corporates are cautious about capital expansion plans, particularly in Mexico and the US, due to ongoing uncertainties [59][61] Container Shipping and Import Data - US container imports from China showed a year-on-year increase of 9% in Q1 2025, but projections indicate a decline of 15% in Q2 and 27% in Q3 2025 [33][35] - Container shipping data has not yet reflected the anticipated decline, with current volumes still showing positive growth [35][36]

Industry Overview - The Materials Sector on Wall Street faced a challenging 2024, becoming one of the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 with a decline of 1.5% due to global economic concerns, particularly a slowdown in China and insufficient interest rate reductions [1] - Demand for materials such as steel, copper, and chemicals has been dampened, adversely impacting companies across the sector [1] Economic Factors - Global central banks, including the Fed, have initiated interest rate cuts after a period of tightening, which can lower borrowing costs for materials companies and stimulate demand in construction and manufacturing [2] - China has introduced economic stimulus packages aimed at revitalizing its economy, which could lead to increased demand for materials due to its significant role as a global importer [2] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Copper producers may benefit from short-term economic rebounds and long-term supply-demand imbalances, especially as copper is essential in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure [3] - The imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports by the U.S. is expected to boost domestic production by reducing foreign competition [3] Geopolitical Dynamics - Tariffs have intensified the geopolitical race for rare earths and critical minerals, with China's export restrictions on materials like terbium and dysprosium disrupting supply chains in industries such as electric vehicles and defense [4] - The U.S. is accelerating efforts to boost domestic production, including initiatives to streamline mining permits and develop processing capabilities [4] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced in 2024, the outlook for the Materials sector in 2025 appears more promising due to economic stimulus measures, lower interest rates, and sector-specific growth areas [5] - Investors may find opportunities in companies strategically positioned to benefit from these macroeconomic and industry-specific trends [5] Company Highlights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has an expected earnings growth rate of 3% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 17.7% over the past 60 days, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [7] - The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) is expected to have a 22.8% earnings growth rate for the next year, with a 4.5% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 46.7% for the current year, with a significant 64.4% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Asia utilities and energy sector**, highlighting the resilience of companies in this space against US tariffs, particularly in Hong Kong and Mainland China [2][19]. Core Insights - **Hong Kong Utilities**: Companies like CLP (2 HK, Buy) and CKI (1038 HK, Buy) are expected to maintain strong cash flows and shareholder returns due to their regulated business nature and predictable cash flows, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [3][13]. - **Mainland China Utilities**: Gas utilities are noted for their resilience, with companies like China Gas (384 HK, Hold) and BEH (392 HK, Buy) showing less exposure to industrial demand. The impact of US tariffs is minimal, with crude oil and LNG imports from the US accounting for only 2% and 5% of total imports, respectively [4][19]. - **ASEAN and India Utilities**: SCI (SCI SP, Buy) and NTPC (NTPC IN, Hold) are highlighted for their defensive characteristics against trade policies and macroeconomic risks [5][29]. Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report lists six preferred stocks rated as Buy: CLP, CKI, Yangtze, Longyuan, SCI, and Hanwha Solutions, with no changes to target prices [11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various companies, including target prices and expected upside percentages. For instance, CLP has a target price of HKD78.00, implying a 22.3% upside [35]. Risks and Challenges - **Oil and Gas Sector**: The report notes that the bearish expectations on oil prices could negatively impact earnings for companies like CNOOC (883 HK, Buy) and PetroChina (857 HK, Buy) [30]. - **Trade Policy Impacts**: The solar supply chain is under pressure due to US tariffs, particularly affecting Chinese manufacturers, while Korean suppliers like Hanwha are expected to outperform [6][31]. Additional Insights - **Cash Flow Resilience**: Gas utilities are highlighted for their strong cash flows and ability to maintain dividends, with BEH and CGH noted for their dividend policies [22][23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that Hong Kong utilities have shown consistent outperformance against market risks, supported by favorable correlations with equity risk premiums and UST yields [3][13]. Conclusion - The Asia utilities and energy sector is positioned defensively against trade risks, with specific companies demonstrating strong fundamentals and cash flow resilience. Investment opportunities are identified in both Hong Kong and Mainland China utilities, as well as in select ASEAN and Indian companies.

Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation Icahn Enterprises L.P. February 26, 2025 1 Safe Harbor Statement Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for forward-looking statements we make in this presentation, including statements regarding our future performance and plans for our businesses and potential acquisitions. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," ...