Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 15.075 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.08% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 1.15 times, with an expected multiple of 1.94 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds with a scale of 9.67 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.07% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year bonds was 1.73 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a potential strengthening trend in credit bonds as leverage levels may gradually recover due to low funding costs [1][7]. Market Performance - On May 7, the bond market showed weakness, with government bond futures closing down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.62%, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.19% [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7075%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 1.89% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,955 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,353 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates for overnight and 7-day terms decreased by 4.5 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, indicating a continued easing of funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market may see increased volatility in May and June, with a higher probability of interest rates breaking lower [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates a gradual recovery in market leverage, with credit bonds likely to strengthen from the short end [7]. - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of the trend in secondary market repurchase rates, predicting a narrowing of the yield curve as funding rates approach 1.4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, establishing a more inclusive financing system for technology enterprises, which has grown into a trillion-yuan market over four years [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Technology Innovation Bonds - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) initiated the pilot program for technology innovation bonds in 2021, becoming a pioneer in this area [2]. - As of now, the SSE has facilitated nearly 300 companies in issuing over 1 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 75% from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. - The SSE has expanded the range of issuers to include financial institutions, ensuring that at least 70% of the raised funds are directed towards technology sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Mechanism Innovations - The SSE has established a "green channel" for the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with a review time of no more than 15 working days for eligible technology companies, which has been further reduced to 10 days for those breaking key technologies [6][8]. - The SSE has simplified information disclosure requirements for qualified issuers, allowing for extended validity periods for financial reports and reduced documentation for high-quality technology firms [7][13]. Group 3: Market Participation and Future Outlook - The recent announcement has led to interest from various securities firms and investment institutions, with around 10 securities companies planning to issue over 16 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [10][12]. - The SSE aims to create a synergistic market ecosystem by promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds and encouraging investment institutions to increase their participation [14].

新华财经北京5月7日电美国国债收益率周二（5月6日）整体走低，美国财政部当天招标发行的10年期美 债需求从前期低位回升，部分修复了近期的市场抛售情绪。 截至6日尾盘，2年期美债收益率跌4.75个基点报3.7827%，3年期美债收益率跌5.32个基点报3.7556%，5 年期美债收益率跌4.19个基点报3.8957%，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报4.2946%，30年期美债收益 率跌3.76个基点报4.797%。 美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德认为，当天的10年期美债发行非常成功。他表示，"我们没有看到美 国国债市场出现任何问题，我们的拍卖继续表现强劲。美元一直是并将继续是世界储备货币。" 美国财政部6日发售420亿美元10年期国债，中标利率为4.342%，低于前次4月9日的4.435%；投标倍数 为2.60，低于前次的2.67，但高于最近六次拍卖的平均值2.59。衡量美国国内需求的直接竞标者的获配 比例为19.9%，衡量海外需求的间接竞标者获配比例为71.2%，一级交易商获配比例仅为8.9%，显示市 场需求强劲。 投标结果出炉后，10年期美债收益率收益率盘中跳水约2个基点。 财经金融博客Zerohe ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with expectations of accelerated issuance of government bonds and special bonds in May, leading to a net financing of approximately 1.5 to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.11% at 120.970, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 109.045 [2] - The interbank market saw most bond yields rise slightly, with the 3-year bond yield increasing by 1.25 basis points to 1.4875% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index closed up 0.82% at 425.39 points, with a total transaction amount of 599.36 billion yuan [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.5 basis points to 4.3433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally fell, except for the long end, with the 10-year yield down 1.7 basis points to 1.257% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's 2-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.77%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.72 [4] - The 2-year fixed rate bond had a winning rate of 1.5639%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.53 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 405 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down 5.8 basis points to 1.702% [5] Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that bond market volatility may increase in May and June, with yields facing downward pressure due to economic data and monetary policy [6] - Changjiang Securities indicates that market logic is returning to fundamental verification, with key variables including policy effectiveness and credit recovery pace [7] - Huachuang Securities notes that the central bank's focus is on "stabilizing growth" without aggressive monetary easing, as government bond supply pressure increases in May [7]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Analyst UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK real rates, measured by inflation-indexed Gilt yields, are at or near decadal highs following a significant increase through 2021-2023. The UK was one of the earliest adopters of inflation-indexed bonds, and so already has a long timeseries of ex ante (traded) real rates, dating back to the early 1980s. We use this time series to backcast real yields, drawing on an approach by ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market" aims to enhance the rationality, scientific nature, fairness, and transparency of the valuation of securitized products, thereby increasing market participation in these products [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Valuation Guidelines - The guidelines address the need for fair, scientific, and stable valuation of various bond types, particularly securitized products, which have been increasingly significant in China's bond market [2][4]. - Securitized products are characterized by their complexity and lower liquidity, necessitating accurate cash flow predictions for proper valuation [2][6]. - The guidelines emphasize the importance of considering the credit status and type differences of underlying assets when setting valuation parameters [2][6]. Group 2: Transparency and Market Impact - Increased transparency in valuation will help users understand the valuation logic of institutions, allowing for better validation of results and enhancing overall valuation quality [3][4]. - Transparent valuation results can provide fair price references for secondary market transactions, reducing pricing discrepancies and improving market liquidity [3][5]. Group 3: Encouragement of Multiple Valuation Sources - The guidelines encourage users to select multiple valuation products for cross-validation, which helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single valuation source [3][5]. - The presence of multiple valuation institutions can enhance information dissemination in the market, leading to more efficient pricing and better investment decisions [4][5]. Group 4: Focus on Credit Risk - The core foundation of the credit bond valuation technical system is the dynamic assessment of credit risk, with rating agencies playing a crucial role in this process [6][7]. - The valuation of securitized products, especially subordinate securities, is significantly impacted by the credit risk of underlying assets, highlighting the need for accurate credit risk assessment [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that rating agencies can expand their role in the valuation field, leveraging their data reserves and credit risk analysis capabilities to provide diverse valuation references and mitigate financial market risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for over half a month, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating around 1.65% since early April, failing to break below 1.6% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty from tariff impacts and expectations for "rate cuts" have been the main drivers for the previous rapid rise in the bond market [4]. - The ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is likely the reason for the recent stability in the bond market [5]. - Bullish views on the bond market are supported by the demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions, strong expectations for monetary easing, and a potential slowdown in the recovery of the economic fundamentals [6]. - Bearish views stem from the possibility of the U.S. lifting tariff sanctions, a potential delay in monetary easing, and a recovery in economic fundamentals that exceeds expectations [7]. - Both bullish and bearish perspectives seem to address the same issues but differ in their outlooks and expectations [8]. Group 2: Uncertainty Factors - The bond market continues to face significant uncertainty due to variables such as tariff negotiations, growth stabilization policies, and the timing of monetary easing measures [9]. - Until the situation becomes clearer, the bond market is expected to remain volatile [10]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - From a long-term perspective, the bond market may still represent an important component of asset allocation despite short-term fluctuations [11]. - The Wind pure bond fund index has shown positive returns every year from 2007 to 2025, with a cumulative increase of 117.94% and an annualized return of 4.42% from 2007 to 2024, indicating stability compared to the stock market [12][15]. - As the domestic economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, long-term bond yields may continue to decline, presenting ongoing allocation value in bond assets [16]. - However, it is important to note that after a prolonged upward trend, volatility in the bond market may increase, suggesting a need to lower expectations and adopt a "stability-first" approach in response to potential future fluctuations [16].

Group 1 - Zhejiang issued a 15-year special local bond for toll roads with a scale of 8.4 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 1.86% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year toll road bond was 3.95 times, with an expected multiple of 1.91 [1] - Zhejiang also issued a 20-year special local bond for water services with a scale of 12.05 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.01% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year water service bond was 5.23 times, with an expected multiple of 2.06 [1]

Core Insights - China's bond market has reached a total scale of 183 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world, with significant foreign institutional investment trends emerging amid increased international financial market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Size and Foreign Participation - The total scale of China's bond market is 183 trillion yuan, making it the second largest globally [1][3]. - Over 1,160 foreign institutions from more than 70 countries and regions have entered China's bond market, with foreign holdings amounting to 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 270 billion yuan since the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Inclusion in International Indices - Since 2019, China's bonds have been included in major international bond indices such as Bloomberg Barclays, JPMorgan, and FTSE Russell, with increasing weight: - Chinese government and policy financial bonds now hold a weight of 9.7% in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, up 3.7 percentage points from four years ago, surpassing Japan to rank third globally [5]. - Chinese government bonds have a weight of 10% in the JPMorgan Emerging Market Government Bond Index, the largest for any country [5]. - The weight in the FTSE Russell Bond Index has also reached 10%, double the initial estimate [5]. Group 3: Investment Appeal and Future Outlook - China's bond market is attractive due to its actual yield and safe-haven attributes, with stable returns and low price volatility amid a recovering macroeconomic environment [7]. - The People's Bank of China is committed to further opening the bond market, enhancing the investment environment, and attracting more foreign investors, particularly long-term investors [7].