Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The current active bond has successfully switched to "25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 06" ("Te 6"), and the spread between it and the previous active bond "25 Ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 02" ("Te 2") has fluctuated between 8 - 16bp and is now around 8bp. The spread may decline further, but the compression process may be long and the space is relatively limited [7][10]. - The compression of the spread is restricted by two factors: the rapid increase in the trading activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" and the impact of value - added tax [21][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly View: Limited Spread Compression Space after Bond Switching - From the perspective of liquidity premium, the spread between the new and old bonds after the bond switch may widen temporarily but will eventually decline. The subsequent issuance of the new bond under the original code has a weak impact on the spread compression. Attention should be paid to the trading activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" [7][20]. - Due to the difference in the start date of issuance and the value - added tax policy, there should be a certain tax spread between Te 6 and Te 2. The actual tax spread may be lower than the theoretical one. The spread compression is restricted by the activity of "25 Coupon - bearing Treasury Bond 02" and value - added tax [21][22]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Accelerated Issuance of Local Bonds 2.1 Attention to Domestic Economic Data - This week, China will release data such as October's social retail sales and industrial added value, and the US will release data like October's seasonally adjusted CPI, PPI, and the EIA monthly short - term energy outlook report. The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions of the Monetary Policy Meeting in October [23][24]. 2.2 This Week's Expected Interest - Rate Bond Issuance is 708.1 billion - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds this week is expected to be 708.1 billion, including 293 billion of treasury bonds, 285.1 billion of local bonds, and about 130 billion of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: The Bond Market Gave Back Some Gains 3.1 Net Withdrawal of 1.57 trillion in Open - Market Operations - At the beginning of the month, there was a large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases, and the overall net withdrawal was 1.57 trillion. The repurchase volume increased seasonally, and the funds rate fluctuated after falling to a low level [29][31]. - The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuance was mainly in medium - term tenors. The issuance rates of different tenors showed differentiation [37]. 3.2 Bond Market Interest Rates Rose on the Whole - Last week, the bond market gave back some gains. Although the export data declined more than expected, the bond market interest rates rose mainly due to factors such as fund fluctuations and the rise of the equity market. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB active bonds increased by 1.4bp each, and the 5Y CDB bond had the largest increase of 5bp [7][49]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Commodity Prices Declined - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The daily average crude steel output in late October decreased year - on - year. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved, while the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area was still weak. The export index showed differentiation [55]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, and coal prices were divided. The building materials price index decreased, and the prices of downstream vegetables and pork increased [56].

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have experienced a rapid increase, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.9580% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" increased by 1.4 basis points to 1.77580% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" went up by 1.6 basis points to 2.13% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience a downturn, with government bond futures showing a significant decline and a tightening liquidity environment affecting market sentiment [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.86% to 114.76, marking the lowest close since March 19 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 2.75 basis points to 1.822%, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.096% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.63% to 474.4 points, with a trading volume of 724.47 billion [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.41 basis points to 3.560% [3]. - Asian markets saw most bond yields rise, with the 5-year and 10-year yields increasing by 1.5 basis points and 0.4 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, most bond yields also increased, with the UK 10-year yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 4.621% [3]. Primary Market - The weighted average yield for the 91-day Treasury bond was 1.2745%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04 [4]. - The 5-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average yield of 1.5973% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24 [4]. - The 50-year special treasury bond had a yield of 2.2227% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.18 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 3,040 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.425% [5]. Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [7]. - The core CPI has shown an expanding growth rate for four consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [7]. Institutional Insights - Long-term liquidity is expected to remain stable, with the central bank likely to continue providing support for government bond issuance [8]. - The new regulations on public fund sales fees are anticipated to enhance the stability of public bond funds, potentially leading to increased inflows into bond ETFs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have increased, indicating a rise in borrowing costs and potential implications for the broader economy [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开10" rose by 2.1 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" increased by 1.5 basis points [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" went up by 1.3 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have generally declined at the beginning of the trading session, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards lower yields [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 2 basis points to 1.9275% [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.81% [1]

Group 1 - The interbank major interest rate bond yields are generally rising at the beginning of the trading session [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" increased by 1.05 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25 National Development Bank 10" rose by 1 basis point [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" increased by 0.6 basis points [1]