S&P Global Ratings is out with its economic outlook for the first quarter of 2026 and is expecting AI tailwinds to boost otherwise weak growth. Joining me now, Paul Grunwald, S&P Global Ratings global chief economist. Great to see you. >> Good to see you, Julie.>> So, let's zero in on the US first because your outlook there is for 2% growth. >> But we've gradually seen over the past couple of years this trend of like we expect one thing and it usually inches a little higher. So ho how should we be viewing 2 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Canada has secured a deal to join the European Union's €150 billion defense scheme, indicating a strategic pivot to strengthen its defense industry and reduce reliance on U.S. military procurement [3][4][9] - The partnership allows Canada to participate in the EU's joint procurement of weapons under the SAFE program, aiming to enhance its military capabilities and diversify its supply chain [3][4] - This shift is driven by concerns over U.S. reliability and aims to bolster Canada's preparedness while investing "smarter" in defense [4][9] Group 2: Corporate News - Blackstone is reportedly stepping back from its potential bid for UK self-storage firm Big Yellow Group Plc (BYG), which could impact the company's acquisition prospects and valuation [5][9] - Big Yellow Group Plc has a market capitalization of approximately £2.24 billion, making it a significant player in the self-storage market [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector experienced a faster pace of contraction in November, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.2, below expectations and indicating ongoing economic headwinds [6][9] - Key sub-indices showed weakening conditions, with the Employment Index declining to 44.0 and the New Orders Index falling to 47.4, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing jobs and demand [7] - Despite the contraction, inflationary pressures persisted, as the Prices Paid Index rose to 58.5, indicating that input costs for manufacturers continue to climb [7][9]

ISM said U.S. factory activity slipped at a faster pace than expected in November, as businesses continue to face a hit from higher tariffs, according to a survey of manufacturing firms. ...

Sentiment among South African manufacturers plunged as export sales remain weak and the manufacturing industry struggles to gain traction https://t.co/KyrFBOL36j ...

Core Insights - The American manufacturing industry faced significant challenges in 2025, including increased costs, rising unemployment, and slumping budgets, primarily due to uncertainties in trade policies and taxes [1][2] - Despite these challenges, opportunities are anticipated for 2026, driven by new tax stipulations from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, adjusted trade agreements, and potential interest rate drops [2][4] - The West Monroe report highlights a shift towards digitalization and improved decision-making in the manufacturing sector, with a focus on accurate data management and AI collaboration [3][4] Industry Overview - The manufacturing sector experienced a downturn in 2025, with a Deloitte report indicating a decline in activity and budgets [1] - The West Monroe report noted that 46% of companies reacted quickly to trade or policy shifts, which sometimes led to data inaccuracies [3] - M&A activity decreased in volume but increased in transaction values, indicating a focus on high-quality assets and modernization efforts [4] Company Highlights - Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE:JCI) reported a fiscal Q4 EPS of $0.42 and sales growth of 3% to $6.4 billion, with strong performance in its Systems and Service segments [10] - RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) received an Outperform rating from BNP Paribas Exane, with a price target of $210, and is involved in a $1.25 billion deal to supply missiles to Israel [12][13] - RTX has invested $33 million in a new manufacturing site in Arkansas to support missile production, reflecting increased demand amid global tensions [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on various sectors including **property**, **manufacturing**, **infrastructure**, and **retail**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Trends**: - October growth showed a significant slowdown across various sectors, with **fixed asset investment (FAI)** declining by **11.2% YoY** in October, worsening from **-6.8%** previously [4][88]. - The **property sector** experienced a notable contraction, with property sales growth dropping to **-18.8% YoY** in October, compared to **-10.5%** in September [74]. - **Industrial production (IP)** growth slowed to **4.9% YoY** in October, down from **6.5%** in September, indicating a broader economic deceleration [98]. 2. **Sector-Specific Performance**: - **Manufacturing** investment fell by **6.7% YoY**, while **infrastructure investment** declined by **12.1% YoY** [88]. - Retail sales growth decreased to **2.9% YoY** in October, reflecting a high base effect from previous trade-in subsidies [112]. 3. **Future Economic Outlook**: - GDP growth is expected to decelerate to around **4.2% YoY** in Q4 2025, with a full-year average of **4.9%** for 2025, aligning with the government's target of "around 5%" [4][6]. - The property downturn is anticipated to persist, with expectations of a **5-10% decline** in property sales and new starts in 2026, and a smaller contraction in 2027 [74]. 4. **Policy Measures**: - Modest policy easing is underway, including **RMB 500 billion** from special financial tools and additional local government bond quotas to stabilize economic activity [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is expected to cut policy rates by **20bps** by the end of 2026, with potential mortgage rate cuts of **30-40bps** [5]. 5. **Inflation and Credit Conditions**: - October's **CPI** increased to **0.2% YoY**, while **PPI** narrowed its decline to **-2.1% YoY** [127]. - Credit growth has softened, with new bank loans recorded at **RMB 220 billion** in October, significantly lower than the previous year [142]. Other Important Insights - The **high-frequency data** indicates continued weakness in property activities, with a **33% YoY** decline in property sales in early November [40]. - The **consumer confidence index** has shown slight recovery but remains below pre-COVID levels, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [112]. - The **accumulated household excess savings** remain high, indicating a cautious outlook on spending [106]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and expectations for the Chinese economy moving forward.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Capital Expenditure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, specifically the **nominal Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**, which is experiencing a significant contraction. This trend raises concerns among investors regarding the implications for deflation and overall economic health [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Contraction of Nominal FAI - China's nominal FAI is broadly contracting, with notable declines in the **real estate**, **manufacturing**, and **infrastructure** sectors. The FAI growth rate for real estate has dropped to **-24.1%** year-on-year as of October 2025, while infrastructure and manufacturing also show significant downturns [5][10][31]. Future Scenarios for FAI - Three potential scenarios for the future trajectory of nominal FAI are outlined: 1. **Baseline Scenario**: Infrastructure investment rebounds, exports improve moderately, and consumption receives some support, leading to a slight alleviation of deflationary pressures [10][48]. 2. **Weak FAI with Strong Exports**: Nominal FAI remains weak, but a strong recovery in global demand boosts exports significantly, potentially stabilizing the economy [49]. 3. **Continued Weakness**: Both nominal FAI and exports remain weak, with no substantial consumer stimulus, leading to deeper economic slowdown and increased deflationary pressures [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Infrastructure FAI**: The growth rate has sharply declined to **-12.1%** year-on-year as of October 2025, marking a significant downturn compared to previous periods. This decline is attributed to a reduction in fiscal deficits and slower issuance of local government bonds [17][19][21]. - **Manufacturing FAI**: The slowdown is driven by a combination of weak non-tech exports and "anti-involution" measures, which have led to more cautious capacity expansion in the manufacturing sector [25][27]. - **Real Estate FAI**: The share of real estate FAI in total nominal FAI has decreased from a peak of **24%** in 2021 to **14%** currently. The sector is facing a severe contraction, with sales and prices declining significantly [31][32][41]. Economic Implications - The contraction in FAI is seen as a necessary adjustment to address overcapacity, but there is concern over the lack of effective consumer stimulus measures. The report emphasizes the need for policies to support consumption to manage overall demand and social stability risks [12][12][48]. Additional Important Insights - Investors are particularly focused on the broad and rapid decline in nominal FAI over recent months, with concerns about potential data underreporting in certain sectors targeted by anti-involution policies [11][12]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing the macroeconomic landscape through strategic investments and consumption support to mitigate deflationary risks [12][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of China's capital expenditure, emphasizing the challenges and potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.

Economic Growth Overview - India's economy experienced a significant growth of 8.2% in the July-September period, marking a six-quarter high, driven by a surge in consumer demand and a reduction in goods and services tax (GST) [12][5][6] - The expansion was primarily led by a 9.2% growth in services and a 9.1% rebound in manufacturing [12][1] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption, which constitutes nearly 60% of GDP, rose to a three-quarter high of 7.9% in the July-September period, up from 7% in the previous quarter [2][12] - Gross fixed capital formation, an investment measure, increased by 7.3%, slightly lower than the 7.8% growth in the prior quarter [2][12] - Agriculture growth was recorded at 3.5% in Q2, a slight decrease from 3.7% in Q1 [2][12] Future Growth Projections - The strong economic performance is expected to lead to upward revisions in growth estimates for FY26, with rating agency Crisil raising its forecast from 6.5% to 7% [7][12] - First-half FY26 growth was reported at 8%, an increase from 6.1% a year earlier, with gross value added (GVA) rising by 7.9% compared to 6.2% in the same period [7][12] Rural Consumption and Inflation - Strong agricultural performance and easing inflation are contributing to improved rural consumption growth, which is anticipated to continue into the first half of FY27 [8][12] - Retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October, which, combined with strong growth, has complicated the outlook for potential rate cuts [10][12] Trade and Policy Considerations - The imposition of a 50% tariff by the US on India, including a 25% penalty for importing Russian oil, is a significant factor affecting future growth, with ongoing negotiations for a trade deal [8][12] - The GST Council's approval of a two-slab tax structure is expected to positively impact consumption by lowering taxes on various household goods [8][12]

Group 1 - The number of corporate bankruptcies in 2025 is on track to reach 792, the highest level since 2010, with 655 bankruptcies reported in the first 10 months of the year [2][7] - The industrials sector is experiencing the most bankruptcies, followed by the consumer discretionary sector, with notable filings including Nikola, Spirit Airlines, and Claire's [3][7] - Despite the rise in bankruptcies, the levels are still significantly lower than during the Great Recession, where bankruptcies peaked at 5,335 in 2008 [4][5] Group 2 - Bankruptcies were at a low of 372 in 2022 before increasing in 2023 due to rising borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [5] - There are two main types of bankruptcy filings: Chapter 7 liquidation, which indicates a company will cease operations, and Chapter 11 reorganization [6]

By Promit Mukherjee OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity, data showed on Friday,​ even as business investments and household consumption disappointed due to the lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs. Third-quarter ‌annualized gross domestic product grew 2.6%, Statistics Canada said, escaping what could have been a technical recession after a contraction in the previous ‌qua ...