FICC Research Economics 9 May 2025 Global Economics Weekly Habemus primum pactum! The US-UK trade deal should be the first in a series, with India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam likely next, and eventually also China and the EU. However, tariffs will likely remain high and the final agreements still uncertain. Central banks respond with caution. Next week, it's US CPI and retail sales. Global Synthesis Habemus primum pactum! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 The US-UK t ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of data-driven analysis in identifying investment opportunities within the aerospace, defense, and airline sectors [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The Aerospace Forum aims to uncover investment prospects in the aerospace, defense, and airline industries, highlighting significant growth potential in these sectors [2]. - The analysis provided by the forum is informed by data analytics, which helps contextualize industry developments and their potential impact on investment strategies [2]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The lead analyst, Dhierin, possesses a background in aerospace engineering, which enhances the depth of analysis in a complex industry [2]. - The forum offers direct access to data analytics monitors, providing members with valuable insights for investment decisions [2].

Group 1: Event Overview - The 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo concluded with over 600 new technology products launched and 43 projects signed, totaling over 5.8 billion yuan [1] - The exhibition area increased by 50% compared to the previous year, covering 50,000 square meters with over 800 domestic and international companies showcasing more than 1,200 cutting-edge technologies and innovations [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Notable exhibits included the Zhuque II and III rockets, the Chang Zheng 8甲 rocket, and the "Cloud Walker" supersonic aircraft model, which is expected to complete its first flight by 2026 [4] - The ROPA orthopedic surgical robot, which enhances precision and efficiency in surgeries, was highlighted as a significant advancement in medical technology [4][8] - The AI digital road station and the MogoMind AI model were showcased for their capabilities in real-time traffic data integration and decision-making, applicable in smart city and autonomous driving scenarios [5] Group 3: Robotics and Automation - The event featured various robots, including the N2 robot, which gained popularity among children for its engaging design and capabilities [2][3] - The Tian Gong 2.0 humanoid robot demonstrated advanced walking capabilities and was part of a broader trend towards integrating robotics in manufacturing and logistics [3] Group 4: Impact on Daily Life - Innovations such as AI-powered smart pillows, anti-fraud digital assistants, and AI waste incineration technology were presented as solutions to enhance quality of life and environmental sustainability [7] - The AI waste incineration technology aims to stabilize pollutant emissions by dynamically adjusting operational parameters based on real-time monitoring [7] Group 5: International Collaboration - The concurrent Beijing International Investment Trade Fair facilitated opportunities for international cooperation, particularly in high-tech sectors like robotics and semiconductor manufacturing [10] - Saudi Arabian entities engaged in discussions with Chinese companies to explore partnerships in advanced manufacturing and green energy [10]

内容来源：本文转载自微信公众号 混沌学园，笔记侠经授权转载。转载请联系原公众号授权。 分享嘉宾：李善友 ，混沌创办人。 责编| 柒 排版| 沐言 第 8951篇深度好文：11286| 25分钟阅读 商业思维 笔记君说： "地球上所有的生命都将被太阳摧毁！" 马斯克，这位科技与商业领域的传奇人物，又对世界发出了警告。 为什么他总想把人类送上火星？ 做特斯拉、SpaceX，他的创业动机究竟是什么？ 为什么他不会因为接连的失败而内耗？ 今天这篇文章，我们就来深度分析马斯克创业背后的使命和精神力量，帮助创业者找回使命，重新点燃内心的力量。 一、马斯克的创业史 今天，我想通过讲案例的方式，让理念的力量与大家共鸣，这个案例大家特别熟悉，是马斯克的SpaceX项目。 在讲这个案例之前，先简单回顾一下马斯克的创业史，可谓英雄之旅。 ① 1984年：马斯克13岁，第一次创业，写了一个游戏程序—Blaster，卖给了一家杂志社后，赚了500美金。 ② 1995年：马斯克24岁，第二次创业，创立地图导航网站Zip 2，公司成立董事会后被排挤出局，赚了2200万美元。 如果一个人的心灵世界比商业世界小，我们就会被金钱、技术所努役、工 ...

2025中国产业转移发展对接活动（四 川）开幕式现场。四川日报全媒体记者 田为 摄 化工新材料及绿色建材产业专题对接 活动上的洽谈现场。四川日报全媒体记者 兰珍 摄 5月9日，2025中国产业转移发展对接活动（四川）在成都开幕。 开幕式早上9点半正式开始，8点半时千人会场已经人头攒动。一直到下午的数字产业（人工智 能、新型显示和软件）专题对接活动，火热气氛依旧，会场后排整整加了一长排座椅，有人站着 也想听完全程。活动的重要性和吸引力不言而喻。 "此次我们与北京星河动力航天科技股份有限公司签约落地的是二期项目，建成后将主要开展谷神 星二号中型固体运载火箭的研发生产。"资阳市临空经济区管委会主任张波介绍。 这是这一全国具有重要影响力的产业转移示范平台第二次来到四川，一个个产业转移合作项目签 约，一份份产业机会清单发布，牵动一个个企业乃至产业发展的"心跳"。 热闹背后，一个问题值得追问：这场"国字号"对接活动，释放出经济大省四川承接产业转移的哪 些信号？ □四川日报全媒体记者 A 开辟产业新赛道信号 如今的产业转移已打开想象空间，重点锚定人工智能、集成电路等战略性新兴产业和未来产业 "产业转移的动力已悄然发生变化， ...

Core Insights - Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) reported its first quarter results on May 9, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings [1] - Despite the positive earnings report, the stock price experienced a slight decline in post-market trading, which may not be significant [1] Company Analysis - The company operates within the aerospace, defense, and airline sectors, which are characterized by substantial growth potential [1] - The analysis provided by the investing group emphasizes data-informed insights to identify investment opportunities in this complex industry [1] Investment Context - The investing group, The Aerospace Forum, aims to uncover investment opportunities and offers access to proprietary data analytics tools [1] - The analyst associated with the group has a background in aerospace engineering, enhancing the depth of analysis regarding industry developments [1]

5月8日，第二十七届中国北京国际科技产业博览会（以下简称"科博会"）在国家会议中心拉开帷幕。 《中国经营报》记者从丰台展区现场了解到，作为首都科技创新的重要承载地，丰台区在本次科博会期 间组织25家前沿科技企业参展，集中展示了人形机器人、激光低频交变磁场治疗机等近70项尖端科技成 果，全面呈现了丰台区"科技+产业+体验"深度融合的创新生态。 五大产业板块亮相 丰台展区的核心亮点在于"五大产业板块"——轨道交通、航天航空、医药大健康、低空技术及新兴产 业。这些板块集中展现了丰台区在多个领域的科技实力与产业优势。 此次科博会，丰台空间资源对接服务平台首次线下亮相。该平台通过地图交互技术整合316处优质产业 空间，为企业提供办公选址、人才公寓、商业配套等资源的"一键导航"服务，精准匹配个性化需求。丰 台区投资促进服务中心主任庄凯表示，平台将助力优化区域营商环境，成为企业落地的"加速器"。 科博会期间，丰台区通过"会展+产业"深度联动，激活资源对接与项目落地。卫星互联网产业园、北京 低空技术创新园等优质产业空间集中展示，医药大健康产业、供应链及商协会专场推介会同步举办，吸 引企业"边展示、边对接、边落地"。拜斯特医疗 ...

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。 中泰证券表示，从行业配置角度看，有三条主线值得关注：（1）TMT景气度有望贯穿全年。（2）稳 增长政策下，关注低位周期股"困境反转"。从估值-盈利角度看，石油石化、有色金属市净率存在一定 修复空间。3、中期经济压力持续，关注稳健类板块。公用事业、交通运输板块盈利能力稳定，且估值 偏低，具备较强的安全边际。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 5月9日，三大指数集体低开，中船系、减肥药、银行等板块和概念股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中证A500 指数跌0.26%，成分股中，中航成飞涨超5%，中鼎股份、百济神州-U、信立泰、安克创新等跟涨。 相关ETF中，截至发稿，A500指数ETF（159351）跌0.42%，成交额超6700万元。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）已连续三个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.8亿元。 A500指数ETF（159351 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 2025 reached $806 million, representing a 13% year-over-year increase or 11% on an organic basis, driven by growth in aerospace and defense markets [7][10] - Operating income increased by 34% year-over-year, resulting in a 260 basis points expansion in overall operating margin [8] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 42% year-over-year, primarily due to higher aerospace and defense sales [8] - Free cash flow increased by 5% year-over-year, despite typically being a first-quarter outflow [8] - New orders increased by 13% year-over-year to a record of over $1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.26 times [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and Industrial segment sales increased by 4%, with solid growth in defense markets, particularly in actuation equipment for F-35 and F-18 programs [12] - Defense Electronics segment saw a 16% sales growth, driven by embedded computing equipment sales supporting various C5ISR programs [13] - Naval and Power segment experienced an 18% sales growth, primarily due to higher revenue from naval defense platforms and contributions from acquisitions [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall backlog reached a record of over $3.6 billion, providing visibility and confidence in long-term growth [10] - The company expects total sales to grow by 8% to 9% in 2025, with strong growth anticipated in defense electronics and aerospace markets [10][24] - Commercial aerospace sales are projected to increase by 13% to 15%, driven by new cockpit voice recorder solutions [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational growth and efficiency to expand margins and fund investments for profitable growth [6][29] - The strategy includes enhancing customer engagement and leveraging domain expertise in mission-critical technologies [5] - The company is well-positioned to capture growth trends in defense and commercial markets, with a strong emphasis on R&D and technological leadership [31][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver strong results despite macroeconomic uncertainties [6][29] - The company raised its full-year guidance for sales, operating margins, and EPS, reflecting improved outlooks in key markets [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to challenges such as tariffs and supply chain issues while maintaining operational excellence [21][29] Other Important Information - Approximately 20% of the company's business is subject to tariffs, with an estimated $30 million impact for 2025, but mitigation strategies are in place [21][45] - The company anticipates a total annualized savings of approximately $12 million from its restructuring program [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the tariff impact? - Management discussed the dynamic situation regarding tariffs and the proactive measures taken to mitigate impacts, including operational adjustments and pricing strategies [41][43] Question: What drove the increase in commercial aerospace guidance? - The increase was attributed solely to new cockpit voice recorder business, with expectations for long-term revenue growth due to FAA mandates [49][51] Question: How supportive has the current administration been towards nuclear energy? - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding ongoing support for nuclear energy, citing positive developments in Poland and Bulgaria [62][63] Question: What is the outlook for shipbuilding and how does it affect the company? - Management noted that while shipbuilding programs take time, there are immediate opportunities for growth due to increased funding and support for the industrial base [66] Question: Can you comment on Defense Electronics margin performance? - Management acknowledged conservatism in guidance due to various factors but emphasized ongoing operational excellence initiatives that are expected to drive future growth [70][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q1 2025 reached $806 million, representing a 13% year-over-year increase or 11% on an organic basis, driven by growth in aerospace and defense markets [6][10] - Operating income increased by 34% year-over-year, resulting in a 260 basis points expansion in overall operating margin [7][10] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 42% year-over-year, primarily due to higher aerospace and defense sales [8][10] - Free cash flow increased by 5% year-over-year, despite typically being a first-quarter outflow [8][10] - New orders increased by 13% year-over-year, reaching a record of over $1 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.26 times [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Aerospace and Industrial Segment**: Sales increased by 4%, with strong demand in defense markets, particularly for actuation equipment supporting F-35 and F-18 programs [12][13] - **Defense Electronics Segment**: Sales grew by 16%, driven by embedded computing equipment sales for C5ISR programs and higher revenues from helicopter platforms [13][14] - **Naval and Power Segment**: Sales grew by 18%, primarily due to strong performance in naval defense and contributions from acquisitions in commercial nuclear and process markets [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog reached a record of over $3.6 billion, providing visibility and confidence in long-term growth [10] - The company expects total sales to grow by 8% to 9% in 2025, with operating margins projected to increase by 80 to 100 basis points [10][11] - The commercial aerospace market is expected to see a sales increase of 13% to 15%, driven by new cockpit voice recorder solutions [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational growth and commercial excellence to expand margins and fund investments for profitable growth [5][10] - The strategy includes leveraging strong domain expertise to enhance customer engagement and address challenging problems in mission-critical technologies [4][5] - The company is well-positioned to capture growth trends in defense, commercial aerospace, and nuclear markets, with a strong emphasis on R&D and technological leadership [32][34][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver strong results despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing quick adaptations to challenges faced in previous years [5][10] - The outlook for 2025 has been raised, with expectations for strong top and bottom line growth, driven by a robust order book and operational excellence initiatives [10][11] - Management highlighted the importance of the U.S. defense budget and ongoing support for nuclear energy as positive indicators for future growth [32][64] Other Important Information - Approximately 20% of the company's business is subject to tariffs, with an estimated $30 million impact for 2025, but mitigation strategies are in place [21][22] - The company anticipates a total annualized savings of approximately $12 million from restructuring efforts initiated in 2024 [23][24] - The company is targeting a free cash flow range of $495 million to $515 million for 2025, reflecting a 2% to 7% increase over 2024 [28][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the tariff impact? - Management discussed the dynamic situation regarding tariffs and highlighted successful mitigation strategies that have reduced potential impacts significantly [42][44][46] Question: Was the increase in commercial aerospace guidance related to Boeing's return to production? - The increase was primarily driven by new cockpit voice recorder sales, with ongoing conservatism due to supply chain uncertainties [50][51][52] Question: How supportive has the current administration been towards nuclear energy? - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding ongoing support for nuclear energy, citing positive developments in Poland and Bulgaria [62][64] Question: What is the outlook for shipbuilding and how does it affect the company? - Management noted that while shipbuilding programs take time, there are immediate opportunities for the company to secure work share in existing fleet operations [67][68] Question: Can you comment on the Defense Electronics margin performance? - Management acknowledged conservatism in guidance due to various factors but emphasized ongoing operational excellence initiatives that are expected to yield positive results [70][72][74]