Core Viewpoint - The US investment-grade (IG) credit market is showing signs of recovery after a challenging start to 2021, with opportunities arising from price corrections and attractive yields for investors, particularly those based in Europe [4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2020, investment-grade credit was favored due to wider spreads to government bonds and central bank support [3]. - By the end of 2020, rising US Treasury yields and the cessation of the Federal Reserve's buying program led to negative returns and net selling in Q1 2021 [4]. - Recent stability in Treasury yields has created an incentive for investors to reassess their positions in IG credit, as economic and inflation data have shown positive surprises [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Yields on US IG credit funds are now above 2%, making them attractive compared to similar EUR exposures, which yield around 30 basis points [6]. - The cost of hedging against currency risks is historically low, making US credit investments more favorable for EUR-based investors, with spreads close to 100 basis points being the most favorable since early 2017 [6]. Group 3: ESG Considerations - Recent announcements from the UK and US governments regarding carbon emissions are expected to heighten focus on climate and ESG themes, influencing investment strategies in US IG credit [11]. - There has been a notable trend of European investors moving towards ESG-based investment strategies in US credit over the past year [11]. - The Bloomberg SASB US Corporate ESG Ex-Controversies Select Index excludes companies involved in controversial industries and optimizes for ESG exposure while aligning closely with the broader Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the extension of tax policies for foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market to further promote the opening of the bond market [1] Group 1: Tax Policy for Foreign Investment - From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, interest income from bonds obtained by foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market will be temporarily exempt from corporate income tax and value-added tax [1] - The exemption from corporate income tax does not include interest income related to bonds obtained by foreign institutions that have established entities or places in China [1] Group 2: Tax Policy for Government Bonds - From August 8, 2025, to December 31, 2027, interest income from foreign institutions investing in Chinese government bonds and local government bonds issued abroad will be exempt from value-added tax [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 10% rally since the beginning of the year, with analysts predicting it could reach six figures for the first time since mid-November [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is characterized by outstanding credit quality and a very low risk of default, serving as collateral in various financial transactions [2] - When Treasury prices are volatile, it constrains credit and discourages risk-taking, while stable bond prices encourage investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies [3] Group 2 - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury bonds, has fallen to 58, the lowest level since October 2021, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and tech stocks [4] - Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to move in line with the Nasdaq 100 index and inversely to the MOVE index, a trend that persisted through Bitcoin's 2022 crash and the subsequent bull run in 2023 [5] - The decline in bond market volatility is one of several factors supporting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, alongside new ETF inflows [6]

Core Insights - Demand for Japan's 5-year government bond auction was weaker than the average level over the past 12 months, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.08 compared to 3.17 in December and a 12-month average of 3.54 [1][2] - The yield on the 5-year government bond has risen to 1.615%, the highest level since its first issuance in 2000, following reports of potential early elections by the Prime Minister [1] - The Japanese yen and government bonds both declined, indicating a resurgence of "high market trading" amid increasing political risks [1] Financial Risks - Investors are closely monitoring fiscal risks, as the dissolution of the House of Representatives could solidify the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's position and pave the way for more stimulus measures [2] - The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, raising the possibility of an earlier interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.18% as of January 9, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.54% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.16%, marking one of its lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with government bond futures slightly declining and a mixed performance in interbank bond yields, indicating a need for further economic data to assess changes in the economic fundamentals [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.07% at 110.87, the 10-year main contract down 0.02% at 107.765, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts both down 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed narrow fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points to 2.3085%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.889% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.86 basis points to 3.488% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.97 basis points to 4.167% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 2.5 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.6 basis points to 3.527%, while the 10-year German bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 2.861% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.6214%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 4.47 [4] - The Ministry of Finance's 10-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average winning yield of 1.8627%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 5.48 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 340 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.272% and the 7-day rate declining by 0.1 basis points to 1.461% [5] Economic Fundamentals - In December 2025, the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in consumer demand [6][7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing consumer demand and inflationary pressures [7] Institutional Views - CITIC Securities noted that the issuance pace of new special bonds in 2025 is relatively slow compared to historical averages but is expected to accelerate compared to 2024, with a more stable issuance rhythm [8] - Xingzheng Fixed Income indicated that potential upward risks for local bond rates may not lead to shorter issuance terms, as the overall issuance duration is likely to remain long due to various factors [8]

美国国债周四下跌。在上午交易时段，债期走低，此前12月份Challenger裁员数据和每周初请失业金人 数数据均好于预期。油价上涨也在当天对收益率构成上行压力，而交易员聚焦于周五的美国非农就业数 据，以及美国最高法院可能将就总统特朗普关税的合法性作出的裁决。在SOFR期权方面，美国交易时 段对上行期权的需求旺盛。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，国债收益率全线走高1.5个基点至4个基点，曲线中段领涨，2年/5年和2年/10年 利差均陡化1.5个基点。 10年期国债收益率收于约4.18%，接近盘中高位，当日走高3个基点。 国债的大部分跌幅出现在上午交易时段，原因是两项数据读数表现稳健。WTI当日收涨逾4%，加剧了 收益率走高压力，而股期也从隔夜跌势中回升。 在周五就业报告公布前，国债和SOFR期权均交投活跃。亮点包括一笔1天到期的交易，押注债券市场更 大幅反弹；同时在SOFR期权方面，美国下午时段对2026年9月到期的1年期曲线中部97.50看涨期权需求 旺盛。 除非农就业外，关于关税的美国最高法院裁决也在关注之列，相关决定可能触发SOFR—联邦基金利率 利差的交易活动升温。 截至美东时间下午3：15 2年期国债收益率报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced that the redemption of savings bonds and book-entry treasury bonds maturing in 2026 is about to begin [1] Group 1: Redemption Process - Savings bonds (electronic) will return principal and pay the last year's interest on the repayment date [1] - Savings bonds (certificate) will be redeemed at maturity, returning principal and paying all interest [1] - Book-entry interest-bearing treasury bonds will return principal and pay the last interest on the repayment date, while book-entry discount treasury bonds will be repaid at face value on the repayment date [1] Group 2: Early Redemption - Early redemption of savings bonds (electronic) will be subject to interest conditions specified in the current bond issuance notice, with specific conditions available from the original selling institution [1] - Early redemption of savings bonds (certificate) will follow tiered interest rates as per the current bond issuance notice, with specific rates available from the original selling institution [1] Group 3: Previous Year Bonds - Physical treasury bonds that matured in previous years can continue to be redeemed at designated year-round redemption points in 2026, with locations available from the local branches of the People's Bank of China [1] - Special treasury bonds that matured in previous years will be redeemed by the original selling local finance department [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is currently stable despite various macroeconomic risks, indicating a level of investor confidence or caution [1] - Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced, which could impact market dynamics in the near future [1] - A significant jobs report is expected later this month, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions and market reactions [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of narrative in financial data communication, suggesting a trend towards more engaging and accessible content for investors [1] - There is a focus on thematic investing and macro drivers of various asset classes, highlighting the interconnectedness of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1]

The Treasury market was moving in a listless fashion on Tuesday in response to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela — with traders more focused on a busy calendar week that includes Friday's jobs report for December. ...