Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds are facing significant selling pressure, leading to concerns about liquidity and potential market instability as yields rise to historical highs [1][7][10]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - As of May 23, 2023, the 30-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 1.78% to 3.041%, while the 40-year yield fell by 1.70% to 3.522% [1][2]. - The 20-year bond auction on May 20, 2023, was the worst since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.96 [2][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a lack of bids, with foreign investors buying while domestic investors, particularly life insurance companies, are selling due to significant unrealized losses [2][9]. - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the largest holder of Japanese government bonds, owning approximately 52% of the market, but is planning to reduce its bond purchases, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The BOJ faces a dilemma: raising interest rates could lead to further increases in bond yields and substantial losses for bondholders, while maintaining low rates risks uncontrolled inflation [3][5]. - Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio, exceeding 250%, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for a debt crisis if bond yields continue to rise [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming bond auctions in late May and early June will be critical; a weak performance could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields [11]. - Experts suggest that if the BOJ does not intervene, the market may enter a negative feedback loop of selling and rising yields, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market has shown overall positive performance this year, with yields experiencing a downward trend, but the space for further decline in short-term credit bond yields and narrowing spreads is limited [1][2]. Credit Bond Market Analysis - As of May 21, the interbank credit bond market continues to show a downward trend in yields, with the AAA-rated 3-month yield slightly increasing by 1 basis point to 1.65%, while the 3-year yield remains stable around 1.83%, and the 5-year yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.96% [2]. - The compression of credit spreads for 1-2 year credit varieties is nearing its limit, with 2-year credit spreads being less than 10 basis points above last year's lows, and 3-year varieties showing a distance of 10-20 basis points from last year's lows [3]. Investment Recommendations - Institutions are advised to focus on certain ticket opportunities with guaranteed yields, considering absolute yield perspectives for allocation [3]. - For institutions with weaker liability stability, it is recommended to focus on 2-3 year mid-low grade varieties, such as broker subordinated bonds, while also considering high-yield, medium-quality bonds in the 4-5 year range [3]. - For institutions with stronger liability stability, extending duration with a focus on 4-5 year varieties is suggested [3]. City Investment Bonds - City investment products remain a preferred choice among institutions, with a 20.7% quarter-on-quarter increase in cash for city investment bond issuers in Q1 2025, indicating improved liquidity due to debt relief funds [4]. - The overall supply of city investment bonds is slowing while demand continues to rise, benefiting credit spreads [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium-high grade bonds in the 4-5 year range [4]. Industry Debt Performance - The overall performance of industry debt issuers has shown four main characteristics: continued decline in profitability, weak cash flow, reliance on inventory compression for cash flow, and weakened liquidity indicators [6]. - Approximately two-thirds of issuers show weakened performance, particularly in sectors like media, steel, trade, real estate, and construction [6]. - Industries performing relatively well include agriculture, logistics, non-ferrous metals, and electricity, while sectors like airports and public transport remain in loss but maintain good cash flow due to strong external financing capabilities [6]. Conclusion on Industry Debt Investment - Caution is advised for industry debt investments, with a focus on meticulous selection of bonds being crucial for future opportunities [7].

值得思考的是，当分红力度持续加大，股息率可以比拼银行股的时候，券商股的投资逻辑是否会发生变化？ 2024年金融股（包括银行、券商、保险）的分红总额均创下三年新高，甚至上市券商也涌现了股息率达到4%的个股。 银行股一直被市场视为红利股的代表，国有大行30%的利润用于分红，适合长期配置；而券商股则被称为"牛市旗手"，分红比例虽然不低，但业绩周期波动大，适 合弹性投资。 据券商中国记者统计，上市券商2024年累计分红536亿，同比增长28%；年度现金分红占归母净利润的比例达到了34.38%，同比提高了3.82个百分点。按4月28 日最新收盘价计算，股息率达到3%以上的券商股包括东吴证券、华泰证券、国信证券、广发证券。 金融股分红创三年新高 近日，年报披露进入尾声，现金分红作为上市公司重视股东回报的表现之一，备受市场关注。券商中国记者统计发现，今年除了银行股以外，保险股、券商股等金 融股也纷纷拿出大手笔分红，不论是年度现金分红总额，还是年度分红占归母净利润（简称"现金分红比例"）的比例都创下近三年新高。 从现金分红总额来看，银行股年度分红总额最大。其中，6家国有大行2024年累计分红4206亿元，同比增长2%，现金分 ...

华夏时报记者张玫帅可聪北京报道 《华夏时报》记者近日联系了券商、基金、期货、资管等多个行业的几十位从业者了解情况。记者发 现，上述现象背后，折射出的是金融行业薪酬预期下调、职业稳定性减弱、基层岗位内卷加剧等多重困 境。 "我身边有工作5年以内的同事考上了金融监管系统的公务员岗位，但更多人考了三年还没'上岸'。"某 券商投行部从业者透露。这场由"90后""95后"基层从业者主导的职业迁徙潮，正在撕开金融业"金领"光 环的裂缝。 正在准备考公的公募基金人士小李对《华夏时报》记者袒露心声："金融行业薪酬在下降，随着年龄的 增长，未来会面对残酷的优胜劣汰，所以想寻找更稳定的岗位和薪酬。" 大多从业不到五年 "一二线城市金融行业基层员工的综合收入哪会比公务员好？"一位私募人士向《华夏时报》记者道出其 中关键。 "我身边还真的有同事考公上岸了，不过是年轻的同事，工作大概5年以内吧，也是考去了金融系统的公 务员岗位。"一位券商人士对《华夏时报》记者表示。 近期，金融行业从业者"转行"考公务员的消息火爆。根据上海市2025年度考试录用公务员第一批拟录用 名单，有二十余位"金融圈人士"获得录取，其中包括十余位券商人士、多位银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the impact of various factors on investor sentiment and market performance, while emphasizing the potential for a "spring rally" in 2025 driven by favorable economic conditions and policy support [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On the first trading day of March, the A-share market experienced a high followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.12% at 3316.93 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.2% [1]. - The trading volume across both markets reached 1.66 trillion yuan [1]. Investor Sentiment - Recent market volatility is attributed to a decline in risk appetite among investors, influenced by seasonal effects and heightened risk aversion [2]. - The launch of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has attracted significant capital inflow, totaling 5.7 billion yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [2][6]. Spring Rally Outlook - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about the "spring rally" in 2025, citing a favorable external environment due to the decline of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the RMB [3]. - Factors such as improved market confidence from private enterprise meetings and ongoing events like DeepSeek are expected to catalyze the rally [3][4]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests a "barbell" investment strategy focusing on both technology growth and high dividend stocks, with an emphasis on sectors like autonomous technology and high-quality internet companies [5][6]. - The Free Cash Flow ETF is positioned as a new long-term investment option, reflecting a shift towards stable cash flow assets in the current market environment [8][13]. Free Cash Flow Strategy - The Free Cash Flow Index, which the ETF tracks, aims to select high-quality companies with stable cash flows, excluding sectors with more volatile cash flow patterns like finance and real estate [10][11]. - Historical performance indicates that companies with high free cash flow have consistently outperformed in both bull and bear markets, making them attractive for long-term investment [11][12].