智通财经5月12日电，摩根士丹利策略师表示，市场对美国股市的信心正在改善，但投资者还不能过早 地掉以轻心。由Michael Wilson领导的团队指出，要维持更持久的反弹需要四个因素，但目前仅在其中 两个方面看到进展："围绕中美贸易协议的乐观情绪以及盈利修正趋稳，"他们在周一的报告中写 道。"我们清单上的另外两项 —— 美联储采取更鸽派的立场以及10年期国债收益率在没有经济衰退数据 的情况下降至4%以下 —— 均尚未实现。" 摩根士丹利策略师Wilson警告称美国股市尚未安全无虞 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the labor market needs to weaken significantly before the Federal Reserve can consider restarting a loosening cycle, and this weakness may take several months to manifest [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Stance** - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the resolution of uncertainties in the market [1] - There is a high likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [1] - **Labor Market Insights** - Recent employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach [1] - Any signs of weakness in the labor market may take months to become apparent [1]

王曙光认为，这深刻体现了监管层推动资本市场高质量发展的坚定决心：一方面着力提升上市公司质 量，夯实资本市场健康稳定发展的基石；另一方面持续完善投资者保护机制，切实维护投资者合法权 益。这不仅是对国际成熟投资理念的传承，更是中国资本市场走向成熟、迈向高质量发展的重要标志。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月7日电（记者闫鹏） "本次发布会释放了系统性政策信号，既回应了当前市场关切，也 为巩固经济回升向好态势提供了有力支撑。"中金公司管理委员会成员王曙光7日表示，会议强调通过政 策协同稳定各方信心，在多个方面响应了4月25日中共中央政治局会议"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期"的会议精神，体现了政策连续性，并进一步细化了相关实施路径。 国务院新闻办公室于2025年5月7日举行新闻发布会，介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况并答记者问。会上，人民银行宣布加大宏观调控强度，推出降准降息等三大类、十项举措；金融监管 总局提出完善房地产系列融资制度等八项增量政策；证监会提出将突出服务新质生产力发展的重要着力 点，大力推动中长期资金入市等。 王曙光表示，会议指出"中国资产的配置价值和吸引力在持续提升"，提出"维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reported strong first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $14.12, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.71 and showing an increase from $11.58 in the same quarter last year [1]. Financial Performance - Net revenues for the quarter reached $15.1 billion, a 6% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.3% [5]. - Net earnings on a GAAP basis were $4.7 billion, reflecting a 15% increase from the prior-year quarter [4]. - Total operating expenses rose by 5% year over year to $9.13 billion [5]. Segment Performance - The Global Banking & Markets division generated revenues of $10.71 billion, up 10% year over year, driven by record net revenues in Equities and strong performance in Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities [7]. - The Asset & Wealth Management division reported revenues of $3.68 billion, down 3% year over year, primarily due to lower net revenues in Equity and Debt investments [6]. - The Platform Solutions division's revenues decreased by 3% year over year to $676 million [7]. Capital and Shareholder Returns - As of March 31, 2025, the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 14.8%, up from 14.7% a year earlier, while the supplementary leverage ratio increased to 5.5% [8]. - The company returned $5.34 billion in capital to common shareholders during the quarter, which included $4.36 billion in share repurchases and $976 million in dividends [9]. Market Reaction and Outlook - Shares of Goldman Sachs gained 1.7% in pre-market trading following the better-than-expected results [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong focus on investment banking and trading businesses, along with a solid deal-making pipeline, although rising expenses may pose a near-term concern [11].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Investment Bank industry is poised to benefit from increased trading income due to heightened market volatility and client activity amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty [1][4] - Investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and technology are expected to enhance long-term efficiency despite short-term cost pressures [1][5] - The industry consists of firms providing financial products and services, including advisory transactions to corporations, governments, and financial institutions [3] Current Challenges - Underwriting and advisory businesses are facing challenges due to ongoing economic ambiguity, tariff wars, and stalled pro-business policies, which may limit overall revenue growth [2][7] - The M&A rebound has not materialized as expected, leading to economic uncertainty and a slowdown in the U.S. economy [7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Investment Bank industry ranks 72, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating solid near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry's earnings estimates have been revised upward by 4.8% since December 2024, reflecting growing analyst confidence [10] Stock Market Performance - The Zacks Investment Bank industry has outperformed its sector and the S&P 500 over the past two years, with a collective stock surge of 45.5% compared to 24.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Valuation Insights - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV) of 2.31X, above the five-year median of 2.13X, and is trading at a discount compared to the S&P 500's 11.58X [15][18] Investment Opportunities - **Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)**: A global electronic market maker with a market cap of $61.7 billion, shares have increased by 29.9% over the past year [20][23] - **Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)**: A financial services company with a market cap of $30.6 billion, shares have surged 93.5% over the past year [26][29] - **BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)**: A financial brokerage and technology company with a market cap of $3.7 billion, shares have decreased by 6.1% over the past year [30][33]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 11, with analysts closely monitoring the impact of Trump's tariff plans on the company's performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $16.63 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - The earnings estimate for the upcoming quarter has been revised down by 2.6% to $2.26, reflecting an 11.9% improvement from the same quarter last year [3][5]. - Morgan Stanley has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 21.03% [5][7]. Investment Banking (IB) Income - Global M&A activity in Q1 2025 was less robust than anticipated, primarily driven by the Asia Pacific region, leading to a consensus estimate for advisory fees of $601.9 million, a 30.6% year-over-year increase [8][9]. - The consensus estimate for total IB income is $1.31 billion, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 17.6% [11]. Trading Revenues - Trading performance is expected to be decent due to increased client activity and market volatility, with equity trading revenues estimated at $3.23 billion (up 13.6% year-over-year) and fixed-income trading revenues at $2.61 billion (up 5%) [12][14]. Net Interest Income (NII) - The Federal Reserve's stable interest rates are likely to support Morgan Stanley's NII, with the consensus estimate for the Wealth Management segment NII at $1.89 billion, reflecting a 1.8% year-over-year rise [15][16]. Expenses - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to be $11.47 billion, indicating a 6.7% year-over-year increase due to ongoing investments in franchises [17]. Strategic Positioning - Morgan Stanley has strengthened its partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, enhancing its capabilities in the Japanese market [26]. - The company has shifted focus from capital markets to wealth and asset management, with the contribution from these divisions rising from 26% in 2010 to over 55% in 2024 [27][28].

中金公司 全球资产重估 20250320 摘要 Q&A 过去一年全球市场发生了哪些变化？中金公司的资产配置观点有何调整？ 去年（2024 年）6 月，中金公司发布了大类资产下半年的展望报告，标题为 "守正待时"。报告的核心观点是防守，因为当时全球市场面临三个重要因素 的影响：首先，中国处于弱复苏状态，对风险情绪有一定压制；其次，美国虽 然投资者热情较高，但经济数据显示出下行趋势；最后，美国和欧洲即将迎来 关键选举，增加了政策的不确定性。这些因素叠加，使得我们在资产配置上采 取更稳健的策略，建议坚守黄金和债券等安全资产。事后来看，这一策略是正 确的，因为黄金价格持续上涨，中国债券表现良好，而美国债券在 7、8 月份也 因经济下行压力而表现突出。 除了防守，我们还关注权益资产，尤其是中国股 票。去年 6 月市场情绪较为悲观，有人将中国与 80 年代的日本进行对比，担心 中国股票可能会经历长期低迷。然而，我们通过研究发现，在过去 100 年中， • 全球宏观环境复杂多变，建议保持稳健的资产配置策略，适度增加权益类 资产，特别是中国股票的配置比例，因其估值相对较低且具有反弹潜力， 同时关注新兴市场机会。 • 中金公司 ...

国内及海外市场策略（三） - 中金公司 2025 年度春季投 资策略会 摘要 • 中国股债相关性转负，美国股债相关性转正，反映通胀环境差异。中国市 场关注增长，股债负相关；美国高通胀下，股债易正相关。 • 中国股票波动率或趋势下行，美国则可能上行。低利率环境通常伴随低波 动，美国高通胀、高利率政策周期导致其波动率上升。 • 中外资产相关性降低，经济基本面周期脱钩，中国与海外资产价格脱钩， 中国资产估值便宜，为全球组合提供分散风险价值。 • 更新黄金多因子模型至 2.0 版本，预测未来十年黄金价格可能涨至 3,000- 5,000 美元，长期看好，但短期关税恐慌或致流动性溢价不确定性。 • 战略性超配中国股票，因其估值便宜且能分散风险。中国市场具备长期增 长潜力，与海外市场关联度降低，是全球投资组合重要部分。 • 2025 年第一季度市场超预期，因特朗普关税低于预期、中国出口分散度 提升、Deepseek 提振风险偏好，中国股票表现优异。 • 美股脆弱性源于两年内标普 500 累计涨幅达 50%后的均值回归风险及估 值过高，建议适度降低海外资产仓位并控制风险。 Q&A 去年（2024 年）11 月发布的 202 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is expected to maintain a rigorous stance on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), continuing the scrutiny established under the Biden administration [2][4] - The Department of Justice (DOJ) has already taken action by suing to block a $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks by Hewlett Packard Enterprise, citing concerns over reduced competition [3][4] - Strict guidelines from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and DOJ focus on preventing major deals that could lessen competition and reduce consumer options [5][6] Group 2 - Investment banks had anticipated a more favorable environment for M&A under the Trump administration, hoping for looser restrictions that could lead to increased deal activity and advisory revenue [7][8] - Despite the scrutiny on large tech deals, there may still be opportunities in other sectors, such as banking, where the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has rescinded a policy that could encourage large bank mergers [9] - Goldman Sachs has seen an 88% increase in stock price since November 2023, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase are trading at elevated price to tangible book values compared to historical averages, prompting considerations for profit-taking [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a multi-strategy dynamic allocation approach to capture style rotation opportunities in the market, utilizing quantitative indicators to assess the allocation value of different styles or strategies [1][6]. Summary by Sections Style Timing Framework to Strategy Rotation Model - The style timing model can effectively avoid high-risk phases but may miss some upward opportunities in styles. Historical data is used to identify similar past indicators to predict future performance [3][26]. - A voting method is employed to integrate multiple indicators, resulting in a comprehensive style timing model that has shown to reduce risk while maintaining a lower annualized return compared to holding styles directly [3][31]. Performance Metrics - The style timing model achieved an annualized return of 16.5% during the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to January 31, 2025, with an excess return of 12.7% over the benchmark [3][39]. - The active quantitative strategy rotation model yielded an annualized return of 36.2% during the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to February 28, 2025, outperforming the benchmark by 28.5% [4][39]. Key Indicators for Style Allocation - The article identifies key indicators for measuring style allocation value, including valuation difference, active inflow rate difference, and combination temporal correlation [2][17]. - Historical data shows that a larger valuation difference correlates with better future excess returns, while a significant active inflow rate difference indicates potential overreaction risks [2][10]. Latest Insights and Recommendations - As of March 2025, the recommendation is to favor small-cap and growth styles while maintaining a neutral stance on value and dividend styles [4][35]. - The report suggests holding indices like the CSI 2000 for small-cap and the National Growth Index for growth styles, along with specific active quantitative strategies [4][35]. Multi-Dimensional Timing Indicators - The article discusses the construction of a multi-dimensional timing indicator system that includes valuation difference, market participation, and combination consistency to assess future style performance [18][22]. - The effectiveness of these indicators is tested, showing that they can provide valuable insights into future excess returns across different styles [22][23]. Strategy Rotation and Dynamic Allocation - The article outlines a strategy for dynamic allocation and rotation among styles based on multi-dimensional timing indicators, aiming to optimize returns while managing risks [37][39]. - The dynamic allocation strategy is designed to adjust holdings based on the prevailing market conditions and style performance indicators [37][39].