Group 1 - The article maintains a neutral rating on Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE: CLW), indicating that this stance has been accurate compared to peers [1] - The company emphasizes strong oversight and understanding of its paper companies, suggesting a focus on operational transparency and management [1] Group 2 - There is no indication of any stock or derivative positions held by the analyst in the companies mentioned, reflecting an unbiased perspective [2] - The article expresses personal opinions of the author without any compensation from the companies discussed, reinforcing the independence of the analysis [2]

Core Points - Chengdu's Wenjiang District and Qingbaijiang District have signed a bulk exchange agreement for major air pollutant emission quotas, marking the first cross-regional quota exchange case in the province [1] - The innovative exchange breaks down resource allocation barriers between districts, allowing for the effective use of limited emission quotas to support various construction projects with a total investment exceeding 30 billion yuan in Wenjiang and approximately 150 billion yuan in Qingbaijiang [1] - The exchange is facilitated by the recent implementation of the "Regulations on the Review and Management of Major Air Pollutant Emission Quotas for Construction Projects" by Chengdu's Ecological Environment Bureau, which aims to balance project implementation and air quality improvement [1] Emission Reduction Goals - Chengdu has exceeded its "14th Five-Year Plan" emission reduction targets by the end of 2024, addressing the shortage of nitrogen oxide quotas through policy support and the development of a technical guide for emission reduction accounting [2] - The city plans to expand the scope of emission reduction projects to include reductions from industrial and automotive repair sectors, potentially adding 238 tons of nitrogen oxides and 254 tons of volatile organic compounds to the total quota [2] - The approval process for construction project environmental assessments will emphasize accurate and objective accounting of quota replacements to minimize unnecessary "quota waste" [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the basic materials sector, including Angang-H, Baosteel, Conch-A, and Zijin-A, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks with potential upside ranging from 22% to 51% [10]. Core Insights - The feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests that end-user order books were flat month-over-month (MoM), which is softer than past seasonal trends. Infrastructure recovery has paused, reflected in weak cement shipments and a lack of funding for new projects [1][2]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 12-14% lower year-over-year (YoY), while demand for copper has increased by 9% YoY. The demand for flat steel and aluminum is 1-3% lower YoY [1]. - The report highlights that while the supply chain is partially replacing US-bound shipments with production from other countries, the reduction in Chinese metal demand is less severe than initially feared [1]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand Snapshots - The downstream order book trend was mostly stable MoM in May, with 25% of respondents indicating a pickup in the downstream sectors and 31% indicating a lower trend [2][3]. Steel Production - Steel production cuts are in preparation, and rush orders for exports are re-emerging. The report suggests that steel-making raw materials could potentially drop to sub US$80-90 per ton if production cuts are implemented [9]. Cement Market - The cement market has experienced a sudden deterioration, with current demand showing significant declines [9]. Aluminium and Copper - The report notes a disruption in Guinea bauxite supply affecting alumina, while copper demand remains more resilient than expected [9]. Coal Market - The coal market is characterized by very weak demand and pricing, indicating challenges for companies in this sector [9]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is facing a rising surplus, which may impact pricing and demand dynamics [9]. Paper Packaging - Improving shipment trends are noted in the paper packaging sector, driven by upcoming online shopping festivals and lower US-China tariffs [9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various companies in the basic materials sector, with specific recommendations such as "Buy" for companies like Angang-H and Conch-H, while others like Maanshan-A and Chinacoal-H are rated as "Sell" [10]. Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the basic materials sector is that current demand is less concerning than previously anticipated, with a notable deceleration in local government special refinancing bond issuance impacting infrastructure recovery [1]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 12-14% lower year-on-year, while copper demand has increased by 9% [1]. - The downstream order book trend has remained mostly stable month-on-month, with 31% of respondents indicating a lower trend in May for basic materials [2][3]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand Snapshots - Infrastructure recovery has paused due to a lack of funding for new projects, leading to weak cement shipments [1]. - The demand for construction materials is showing signs of weakness, particularly in cement and construction steel, while copper demand remains resilient [1]. Steel Production - Steel production cuts are in preparation, with a potential reduction in prices if these cuts are implemented [1]. - The report notes that rush orders following the reduction of US-China tariffs were limited, primarily driven by Southeast Asia [1]. Commodity Prices - The pricing for steel and cement has remained stable, while prices for aluminum and copper have improved, contrasting with the softening of coal and lithium prices [1]. Specific Company Insights - Angang-H is rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 2.40, indicating a potential upside of 45% [10]. - Conch-H is also rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 29.00, reflecting a 37% upside potential [10]. - Companies like Maanshan-A and Chinacoal-H are facing downward pressure, rated as "Sell" with target prices significantly lower than current prices [10].