展望2026年，消费需求仍在温和修复阶段，各类纸种供给变化各异：浆纸系纸种供需仍然宽松，浆价成 为行业补库、及去库关键推动力，浆纸一体化龙头有望继续获得超额利润;箱板瓦楞纸产能已基本收 尾，有望率先走出本轮供需失衡周期，迎来产能利用率修复，吨纸价格中枢同比抬升的业绩修复行情。 箱板瓦楞纸价格中枢有望同比修复。箱板瓦楞纸在造纸中对消费敏感度最高，2023-24年消费量增速为 8%、4%，预计2022-25年消费增量为~1,000万吨;本轮供给扩张已进入收尾阶段，中金统计2023-25年已 投产能合计1,500万吨+(四家龙头占比~40%)，未来原有龙头扩张相对克制：玖龙2024年起暂停扩产箱板 瓦楞纸、山鹰安徽新增产能短期较难投产、理文暂无扩张计划，而2026年目前仅太阳70万吨产能计划年 末释放，中金认为本轮行业扩张进入尾声，看好2026年行业迎来产能利用率、价格中枢同比修复的行 情。 中金主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研究报告称，2026年造纸需求整体仍在温和修复，虽然供给进入收尾阶 段，但2025年新增产能爬坡释放，判断供需相对宽松，从边际新增压力来看，该机构判断文化纸>特种 纸>白卡纸。原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp price follows certain rules, including the inventory cycle of the US dollar market, the positive and negative feedback in the pulp and paper industry chain, and the linkage and divergence between different pulp types [3][4][5]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market lies in demand changes. Seasonal demand growth often drives the pulp price to rise rapidly [16][17]. - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase comes from the improvement of the overseas US dollar market demand, and the negative feedback of the decline comes from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper [21][22]. - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and the structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the failure of the valuation system based on import costs and basis [31][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Inventory Cycle of the US Dollar Market - China has a high import - dependence on pulp supply, with softwood pulp almost entirely imported and imported hardwood pulp accounting for over 60% of the total [9]. - The price change of the overseas US dollar market follows the inventory cycle, including passive de - stocking, active stocking, passive stocking, and active de - stocking [10]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market is demand. Short - term pulp consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and long - term demand shows a moderate growth trend [16]. - Seasonal demand growth often leads to the pulp price rising rapidly, and the rapid increase in pulp external quotes in the past 5 years mainly occurred during China's consumption peak seasons [17]. 2. Positive and Negative Feedback in the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase starts from the improvement of pulp consumption, which drives the improvement of the US dollar market demand and the increase of quotes, forming a positive feedback loop among the US dollar market, domestic pulp futures prices, and finished paper prices [21]. - The negative feedback of the decline starts from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper, leading to a cycle of falling paper and pulp prices. In recent years, the price and profit of paper have been more severely affected than those of pulp [22]. - In the feedback process, domestic pulp futures react to demand changes in advance, and the peak - to - decline of finished paper production can be regarded as the starting point of the futures price decline [23][26]. - After 2023, although the production of domestic downstream finished paper increased, the high point of the futures price decreased, which was restricted by factors such as the overseas energy crisis, new device production, and unstable quality of some delivery products [30]. 3. Linkage and Divergence between Pulp Types - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and a single project's production will affect the overall pulp price. Since 2014, the correlation between the external quotes of Star and Silver Star has been 0.86 [31]. - The external softwood - hardwood price difference shows a wave - like upward trend, driven by project production, and this drives downstream formula replacement and has a negative impact on the futures price [35][40]. - In the process of the softwood - hardwood price difference widening, adding more hardwood pulp to raw materials is a more economical choice. In the long - term, the proportion of softwood pulp in the formula of downstream finished paper enterprises has been decreasing [40]. - The structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the futures price being priced closer to the lowest - priced delivery product, and the valuation system based on import costs and basis may fail [42]. - The price difference between different softwood pulps has widened, and the futures pricing anchor has shifted to Russian softwood pulp. The return of the pricing anchor depends on factors such as the lifting of sanctions on Russia, upstream maintenance, and improvement of pulp quality [44][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the pulp and paper industry is experiencing a bottoming out of profitability, with costs stabilizing and paper prices showing slight recovery in Q1 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights that the overall pulp price is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation, with domestic demand remaining weak while international prices are experiencing increases due to maintenance shutdowns in overseas pulp mills [2][3] - The cultural paper segment is seeing a gradual recovery in profitability, with major players like Sun Paper benefiting from strategic raw material management and cost control [3][5] Group 2 - The white card paper prices are showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in Q1 2025 due to supply disruptions from major producers [4][5] - The special paper segment is witnessing an expansion of leading companies' market share, although prices are under pressure due to weak demand in certain categories [4][5] - The waste paper segment is experiencing price fluctuations, with overall profitability showing improvement, particularly for companies like Nine Dragons Paper [6][7] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the profitability of paper companies may continue to face pressure in Q2 2025 despite cost optimization efforts, with limited new capacity expected from leading firms [7] - Companies to watch include Sun Paper and Xianhe Co., which are expected to see improvements in profitability, along with others like Huawang Technology and Wuzhou Special Paper [8]