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国际宏观资讯双周报-20251223
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-23 09:15
Economic Insights - The IMF warns Kenya and Ethiopia about the risks of converting SGR loans from USD to RMB, highlighting potential currency risks despite cost savings[7] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, due to rising inflation pressures[10] - Australia's inflation rose to 3.8% in October, prompting the central bank to maintain interest rates at 3.6%[11] - Iran's economy has been in recession for 20 consecutive months, with a PMI of 46.6 indicating ongoing economic contraction[12][13] Fiscal Developments - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026, aiming to generate approximately 20 trillion IDR (about 1.2 billion USD) in additional revenue[17] - South Africa's economic outlook is improving, with GDP growth expectations raised for the second half of 2025, following fiscal reforms initiated in 2021[18][19] Political and Social Issues - Eight countries, including Turkey and Egypt, oppose Israel's unilateral opening of the Rafah crossing, emphasizing the need for a two-way opening to support Palestinian residents[21] - Ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in significant casualties, with over 51,200 people displaced[22][23] Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Ivory Coast's sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, maintaining a stable outlook due to political stability and strong economic growth projections of 6.4% to 6.6% from 2025 to 2027[40]
“迎峰度冬保供应”系列报道 迎寒潮保温暖 能源保供“不断档”
Ren Min Wang· 2025-12-23 05:54
在山西大同某煤炭企业的矿井下,采煤机在煤层中稳步推进,滚滚"乌金"沿着刮板输送机缓缓涌出;选 煤厂内,原煤经过破碎、分选、脱水等一系列加工,去除杂质,变成保障冬季能源供应的优质燃料。在 内蒙古鄂尔多斯,某煤矿的生产、装车现场一片繁忙。"十月之后我们就进入了冬季保供节点,目前每 天生产煤炭约2.4万吨。"相关负责人介绍。 在"双碳"目标引领下,迎峰度冬能源保供与绿色低碳转型并驾齐驱。各地清洁能源供应力度不断加强, 越来越多家庭用上清洁热源,实现绿色用能、温暖过冬。 张信荣表示,风电、光伏等清洁能源为冬季能源供应提供了增量来源,有助于缓解传统化石能源的保供 压力,尤其在供热和电力需求双高的"尖峰"时段,有效利用新能源可起到支撑作用,提升能源供给端的 多元性与韧性。 在青海省海西州都兰县,某电力企业依托当地丰富的风、光资源,建成25万千瓦光伏电站,并同步推进 55万千瓦风电项目,通过大规模空气源热泵与"多能互补+蓄热"技术,将"绿电暖流"送入千家万户。"以 前用煤取暖时,暖气时冷时热,现在家里不仅恒温,还见不到煤烟,又暖和又干净!"居民蒋先生表 示。数据显示,该清洁电力供暖项目全年可节约标煤约14万吨,减少二氧化硫 ...
中辉能化观点-20251223
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]
断气倒计时!欧洲议会批准禁俄气,能源困局藏多重变数
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-23 02:11
Group 1 - The European Parliament voted to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas, with a complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) entering the EU spot market starting in early 2026, aimed at ensuring energy security and reducing dependence on Russian energy supplies [2][3] - The European Parliament's decision received significant support, passing with 500 votes in favor, 120 against, and 32 abstentions, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing energy autonomy and countering Russian influence in the energy sector [3][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Europe's LNG imports are expected to reach a historical high, increasing by approximately 20% compared to 2024, driven by rising consumption and reduced pipeline gas supplies, which has led to sustained high LNG prices in Europe [3][4] Group 2 - The European Investment Bank is central to the EU's energy strategy, focusing on funding renewable energy development and expanding energy supply channels, which is crucial for reducing reliance on Russian energy [4][5] - The EU's energy reserve strategy is coordinated by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, which plays a key role in managing energy reserves among member states, with strict regulations on the use of these reserves during significant supply crises [5] - The push for "de-Russification" of energy has accelerated the development of the European renewable energy sector, although rebuilding a self-sufficient energy supply chain will require substantial time and investment, and there are existing gaps in stability and cost advantages outside of Russian energy sources [4][5]
胜通能源斩获8连板 续创历史新高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-23 02:10
日前,公司控股股东、实际控制人签署了《关于胜通能源股份有限公司之股份转让协议》。截至目前, 公司主营业务仍为液化天然气采购、运输及销售,未发生重大变化,收购方不存在未来十二个月内的资 产重组计划,收购方不存在未来12个月内对上市公司及其子公司的资产和业务进行出售、合并、与他人 合资或合作的计划,或上市公司拟购买或置换资产的重组计划,收购方不存在未来36个月内通过上市公 司借壳上市的计划或安排。 公司主营业务为LNG采购、销售以及运输服务,我国LNG价格实行市场化定价机制,公司盈利情况受 市场供需、天然气价格等多重因素影响,2023年度及2024年度,受LNG市场行情影响,公司净利润连 续两年为负,目前公司股价与公司基本面差异较大,公司郑重提醒广大投资者,理性决策,审慎投资, 注意二级市场交易风险。 胜通能源(001331)23日再度涨停,续创历史新高。截至发稿,该股报31.63元/股,涨停板上封单超32万 手。至此,该股已连续8个交易日涨停。 公司21日晚间发布风险提示称,公司股价短期波动幅度较大,已明显偏离市场走势,存在较高的炒作风 险,目前公司股价已严重偏离上市公司基本面,未来存在快速下跌的风险。 ...
与俄撕破脸,日本卡断气边缘,美澳能否解决日本天然气危机?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 13:54
日本的天然气供应目前的状况可谓危急。由于天然气资源匮乏,日本96%的能源依赖进口,其中三分之 一的发电量也依赖天然气。如果储备耗尽,日本将面临严重的能源短缺,甚至可能恢复到原始状态。直 到2022年之前,日本一直依赖俄罗斯的天然气供应,俄罗斯的萨哈林二号项目为日本提供了10%的天然 气需求。然而,由于日本在俄乌冲突中的立场选择,俄罗斯的这一保障如今已不复存在。 今年夏天,日本的高温导致了不少人因酷热而死亡。很多人因为节约电费或交不起电费而未能使用空 调。日本的电价一向较高,但近年来电费暴涨,部分原因就是日本自己所造成的。自从俄乌战争爆发, 日本与俄罗斯的关系彻底破裂,陷入了天然气供应危机。现在,日本很难再指望俄罗斯提供能源援助, 未来也几乎不可能重新与俄罗斯达成合作协议。 在这种情况下,美国和澳大利亚成了日本的潜在救命 稻草。美国与日本的关系紧密,而澳大利亚则是日本的能源供应商之一。可是,这两国能否帮日本摆脱 2023年断气危机呢?毕竟,日本当初也是想依赖这两个国家的能源供应。 当时,日本与俄罗斯合作非常密切,三井和三菱等大公司也参与了投资。日本的计划是通过这种合作获 得长期的能源供应,然而,俄罗斯在与日本的 ...
国新能源:2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-22 13:52
Core Viewpoint - The company, Guo Xin Energy, announced the approval of multiple proposals, including the reappointment of the accounting firm, during its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [2] Group 1 - The company held its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 22 [2] - The meeting resulted in the approval of the proposal regarding the reappointment of the accounting firm [2]
首华燃气(300483.SZ):控股子公司收到财政补助1.7亿元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-22 11:37
格隆汇12月22日丨首华燃气(300483.SZ)公布,公司于2025年12月9日在巨潮资讯网披露了《关于控股子 公司获得财政补助事项的自愿性信息披露公告》(公告编号:2025-082),主要内容为公司已收到控股 子公司北京中海沃邦能源投资有限公司(简称"中海沃邦")财政补助相关文件,预计可确认与收益相关 的财政补助181,383,630.33元,占公司2024年度经审计净利润绝对值的比例为25.51%。截至2025年12月 22日,中海沃邦实际收到上述部分财政补助资金合计人民币170,000,000元。 ...
首华燃气:控股子公司收到财政补助资金170000000元
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-22 11:35
截至2025年12月22日,首华燃气控股子公司中海沃邦实际收到部分财政补助资金合计人民币170000000 元。根据《企业会计准则第16号——政府补助》相关规定,上述财政补助与收益相关,预计将对收到财 政补助当期的公司损益产生正面影响,具体会计处理须以会计师年度审计确认后的结果为准。 本文源自:市场资讯 作者:公告君 声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成,仅供参考,不构成个人投资建议。 ...
首华燃气:中海沃邦收到财政补助资金合计1.7亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 11:01
每经AI快讯,首华燃气(SZ 300483,收盘价:14.61元)12月22日晚间发布公告称,首华燃气科技(上 海)股份有限公司于2025年12月9日在巨潮资讯网披露了《关于控股子公司获得财政补助事项的自愿性 信息披露公告》,主要内容为公司已收到控股子公司北京中海沃邦能源投资有限公司财政补助相关文 件,预计可确认与收益相关的财政补助约1.81亿元,占公司2024年度经审计净利润绝对值的比例为 25.51%。截至2025年12月22日,中海沃邦实际收到上述部分财政补助资金合计人民币1.7亿元。 2024年1至12月份,首华燃气的营业收入构成为:天然气占比99.91%,其他业务占比0.09%。 截至发稿,首华燃气市值为42亿元。 每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——新能源重卡爆单了,11月销量同比增长178%!两班倒都供不应求,客户直 接进厂催单,这情景十年难遇 (记者 曾健辉) 免责声明:本文内容与数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议,使用前请核实。据此操作,风险自担。 每日经济新闻 ...