Core Insights - The "Northbound Vehicle Policy" has significantly enhanced cross-border travel and commerce between Macau and mainland China, marking three years of successful implementation with impressive growth in vehicle traffic and integration within the Greater Bay Area [4][8][14] Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy has led to a remarkable increase in vehicle crossings, with 4.393 million crossings recorded in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [4] - The average daily vehicle traffic at the Zhuhai port has surged, with peak daily crossings exceeding 28,000 vehicles [7] - The total number of vehicles crossing the bridge in 2025 is projected to reach 6.808 million, representing a 22.5% increase year-on-year [8] Group 2: Changes in Lifestyle - The policy has transformed the lifestyle of Macau residents, making cross-border travel a regular part of daily life, with many now frequently visiting cities like Zhuhai and Guangzhou for shopping and leisure [6][9] - The convenience of crossing has led to a rise in cross-border consumption, with families regularly traveling for various activities, thus enriching their experiences [10] Group 3: Economic Opportunities - The policy has opened new avenues for small and medium-sized enterprises in Macau, allowing them to expand their market reach and optimize resource allocation [12] - Entrepreneurs have leveraged the policy to enhance operational efficiency, with some relocating their businesses to Zhuhai to benefit from lower costs and better access to resources [11] - Traditional industries, such as local specialty shops, have successfully entered the mainland market, achieving significant sales growth through improved logistics and distribution [11] Group 4: Future Prospects - The ongoing development of the "Northbound Vehicle Policy" is expected to further enhance the integration of the Greater Bay Area, promoting high-quality economic collaboration and cultural exchange [13][14] - Future initiatives will focus on technological advancements to streamline customs processes, aiming for even more efficient and seamless cross-border travel experiences [13]

Futures Market - On January 7, ICE cotton futures retreated from earlier gains, influenced by falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar, with the most active March cotton futures contract down by 0.21 cents or 0.32%, settling at 64.85 cents per pound [1] - Speculative buying earlier in the day had initially supported cotton prices, with Price Futures Group's vice president suggesting a slight decline in US cotton production this year, which may provide some support for cotton prices later in the year [1] - The drop in oil prices is pressuring cotton prices as it makes polyester, a cotton substitute, relatively cheaper, thereby reducing demand for natural cotton [1] Export Data - Brazil's cotton exports in December reached 452,500 tons, boosted by demand from Asian countries, marking a 28.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Brazil is the world's largest cotton exporter, with production for the 2024/25 season expected to reach a record high of over 4 million tons [1] Inventory and Market Trends - As of January 6, ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory stood at 11,510 bales, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The US dollar index has risen, while the S&P 500 index closed lower due to declines in financial stocks, although Nvidia and Alphabet helped lift the Nasdaq index as investors shifted towards AI-related stocks [2] - Oil prices have decreased for the second consecutive day as investors digest a deal by President Trump to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which will increase supply for the world's largest oil consumer [2] Spot Market - On January 7, the Cotlook A Index was reported at 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 35 points [3]

Core Viewpoint - China is expected to surpass the rest of the world in AI computing power due to its significant advantage in large-scale electricity supply, as stated by Elon Musk [1] Group 1: Electricity Supply and AI Competition - Musk estimates that by 2026, China's electricity generation could reach approximately three times that of the United States, enabling the support of high-energy AI data centers [1] - A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that power shortages may slow down the U.S. progress in the AI race, highlighting that stable and sufficient electricity supply could be a key factor in shaping this competition [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, China may have around 400 gigawatts of surplus electricity capacity, more than three times the current total electricity demand of global data centers [2][4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy Development - Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, emphasized the importance of energy in the AI race, noting that China's infrastructure development speed and electricity supply capabilities are significantly ahead [5] - Huang simplified AI into five layers, stating that without energy, it is impossible to build chip factories, supercomputers, and AI data centers, despite the U.S. leading in chip technology [5] - The construction timeline for a new data center in the U.S. is approximately three years, while China can complete a hospital in a weekend, showcasing the disparity in infrastructure development speed [6] Group 3: Challenges in the U.S. Energy Sector - U.S. tech companies are building their own power plants for data centers, but expanding the U.S. power grid is challenging due to complex and unstable permitting policies [7] - The U.S. solar industry association has indicated that the country's position as a global AI leader is hindered by insufficient transmission capacity and regulatory obstacles [7] - Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that between 2025 and 2028, the electricity gap for U.S. data centers is expected to reach 44 gigawatts, indicating a growing disparity in energy supply compared to China [7]

与此同时，美国总统特朗普持续威胁要吞并格陵兰岛，这也成为市场面临的一个潜在风险。风险因素的 不断累积，为国际黄金价格在2026年初的上涨提供了关键动力。值得注意的是，地缘政治风险并非国际 黄金市场的唯一影响因素。 2026年，美联储的降息倾向以及美联储主席换届，均在一定程度上利好国际黄金市场的表现。2025年9 月，美联储正式开启降息周期，并且在2025年最后的三场货币政策会议上连续降息。进入2026年，美联 储内部对于下一步应该如何调整货币政策路径依然存在分歧。 2026年伊始，国际金价延续了2025年的火热势头。1月6日，国际现货黄金价格一度站上4500美元/盎 司，虽有波动，但总体而言，国际黄金价格仍维持在高位。2026年开年，美国与委内瑞拉之间的地缘政 治冲突点燃了市场的避险情绪，黄金作为重要的避险资产，继续受到市场投资者的追捧。 明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利表示，美联储距离停止降息已经非常接近。现在的政策立场已经非常接 近中性。需要有更多的数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧。 尽管当前美联储内部对后续的货币政策路径存在一定的分歧，但从目前的情况看，美联储在2026年可能 至少 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold and silver prices due to profit-taking by short-term traders and strong technical resistance at historical high levels [1][2] - February 2026 gold futures fell by 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, while March silver futures dropped by 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices follows a peak in autumn 2025, despite achieving the best annual performance since 1979 due to central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and currency depreciation [1] Group 2 - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI rose to 54.4 in December 2025, surpassing the previous month's 52.6 and exceeding economists' expectations of 52.3 [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that job vacancies in November 2025 were 7.15 million, a decrease of 885,000 from the same month in 2024 and the lowest level since March 2021 [2] - The employment data released showed that the U.S. added only 41,000 jobs in December 2025, falling short of the expected 49,000 [1]

盘前要闻 1、八部门：到2027年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，意见指出，到2027年，我国人工智能关 键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。意见还指出，推动智能芯片软硬协同发展，支持突破高端训练芯片、人 工智能服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术。 2、锂电"反内卷"力度升级：多部门联合召开动力储能电池行业座谈会 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 1月7日，多部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署规范产业竞争秩序相关工作。有知情人 士透露，参会企业包括国内Top10的动力电池企业、几家头部储能电池企业和集成商等，共计10余家。 有参会人士透露，此次会议总体围绕行业"反内卷"工作，包括要求企业实现控产能、管价格战、保护专 利等内容。 3、央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作，专家称月内将继续注入流动性 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 机构观点 央行1月8日将开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。考虑到今日有11000亿买断式逆回购到 期，本次操作为等量续作。专家预计央行将于1月15日左右开展6个月期买断式逆回购 ...

2026.01.08 本文字数：2123，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 作为今年首个重磅经济数据，随着本周五去年12月非农报告的揭晓，投资者将结束假日模式正式迎接 2026年新行情。数据显示，年末美国就业市场出现部分回暖，但并未完全摆脱困境。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，今年美联储首次降息节点指向二季度，如果非农不及市场预期，美联储或将选择提前下调利 率稳定经济。 数据喜忧参半 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，2025年最后一个月，美国企业新增就业岗位4.1万 个，疲软的劳动力市场在步入新一年之际出现小幅改善。虽然岗位止跌回升，数据依然不及机构预期的 新增4.8万。与此同时，招聘放缓的影响还体现在员工薪资议价能力的下降上。留任员工的薪资同比涨 幅为4.4%，与疫情以来的最低水平持平。而在几年前，这一同比涨幅曾一度飙升至7.8%的高位。 值得注意的是，新增岗位高度集中于少数几个领域，主要是医疗保健机构、餐饮及酒店行业。这种就业 增长缺乏行业普遍性的现象，凸显出过去一年间美国劳动力市场的疲软程度。 就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国 ...

客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月2日，摩根士丹利增持纳芯微（02676）4.28万股，每股作价119.8404港 元，总金额约为512.92万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为96.24万股，最新持股比例为5.04%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月2日，摩根士丹利增持纳芯微（02676）4.28万股，每股作价119.8404港 元，总金额约为512.92万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为96.24万股，最新持股比例为5.04%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market as it enters 2026, highlighting a slight recovery in employment but ongoing concerns about economic stability and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Labor Market Data - In December 2025, U.S. businesses added 41,000 jobs, which was below the expected 48,000, indicating a weak labor market [4][5]. - Wage growth for retained employees was stagnant at 4.4%, matching the lowest level since the pandemic, down from a peak of 7.8% in previous years [5]. - Job growth was concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare and hospitality, reflecting a lack of broad-based recovery in the labor market [5]. Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated that the labor market's deterioration may be stabilizing, with two out of the last three months showing job growth [5]. - The JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings from nearly 7.5 million in October to about 7.1 million in November, with the job vacancy rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.3% [6]. - The number of involuntary job losses remained stable, with approximately 1.7 million people unemployed in November, down from 1.9 million in October [6]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data on January 9 is expected to significantly influence market direction, with the last reported non-farm job increase of 64,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in over four years [8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have shown a tendency to lower interest rates due to concerns about the weak labor market, with a nearly 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March [8][9]. - Despite a generally optimistic economic outlook for 2026, there are concerns about stagnant inflation and a weakening labor market, which could lead to further adjustments in monetary policy [9][10]. Economic Perspectives - Economists express caution regarding the labor market, noting that the current job growth is slowing and wage pressures are easing, which may indicate underlying economic stress rather than confidence in future prospects [9][10]. - The "low hiring, low firing" model in the labor market is seen as unsustainable, with potential consumer spending cuts leading to increased layoffs if economic conditions worsen [10].

资讯速递 1、商务部新闻发言人就对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起反倾销调查答记者问 商务部新闻发言人就对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起反倾销调查答记者问。有记者问：我们关注到商 务部对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起了反倾销调查，能否介绍相关情况？答：此次调查是应国内产业 申请发起的。申请人提交的初步证据显示，2022年至2024年，自日本进口的二氯二氢硅数量总体呈上升趋 势，价格累计下跌31%，自日倾销进口产品对我国内产业生产经营造成了损害。调查机关收到申请后，根 据中国有关法律法规并遵循世贸组织规则对申请书进行了审查，认为申请符合反倾销调查立案条件，决定 发起调查。调查机关将依法开展调查，充分保障各利害关系方权利，根据调查结果客观公正作出裁决。 2、八部门：到2027年 我国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 从国家药监局获悉，为加快临床急需境外已上市药品在境内上市，满足患者临床用药迫切需求，国家药监 局进一步优化这类药品审评审批。国家药监局表示，坚持以临床价值为导向，鼓励申请人在中国开展全球 同步研发、同步申报上市；鼓励临床急需境外已上市的原研药及仿制药在境内申报，对于符合要求的可纳 入优先审评审批范围 ...