2026年1月22日，中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议，会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义 思想为指导，深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，落实中国人民银行工作会议 要求，总结2025年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署2026年工作。中国人民银 行党委委员、副行长陶玲出席会议并讲话。 会议认为，2025年中国人民银行加快构建宏观审慎管理体系，完善治理机制，夯实宏观审慎监测评估的 规范化、标准化和实战化能力，加强系统重要性金融机构、金融市场、跨境资本流动等重点领域宏观审 慎管理。推进人民币国际化，完善人民币跨境使用安排，优化货币互换和清算行网络，强化人民币融资 货币功能，进一步支持贸易投资便利化，持续提高服务实体经济能力。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 会议认为，2025年中国人民银行加快构建宏观审慎管理体系，完善治理机制，夯实宏观审慎监测评估的 规范化、标准化和实战化能力，加强系统重要性金融机构、金融市场、跨境资本流动等重点领域宏观审 慎管理。推进人民币国际化，完善人民币跨境使用安排，优化货币互换和清算行网络，强化人民币融资 货币功能，进一步支持贸易投资便利化， ...

Core Insights - The ETF industry continues to thrive, with $1.5 trillion in 2025 and $103 billion in new money gathered by January 21, 2026 [1] Actively Managed ETFs - Actively managed ETFs, despite being over 10% of ETF assets, captured nearly one-third of all ETF inflows in 2025 and 37% of new money in 2026 [2] - Active fixed income ETFs were particularly popular, with the PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF (PYLD) leading with $1.0 billion in new money [3] Thematic ETFs - Thematic ETFs saw a resurgence with $23 billion in inflows after three years of outflows, primarily driven by robotics and AI [4] - The Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) attracted $685 million in early 2026, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions [4] - The REX Drones ETF (DRNZ) launched in late 2025, quickly reaching $55 million in assets and gaining 28% [5] Diversification Trends - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) emerged as a leader in 2026, gathering $4.5 billion and outperforming mega-cap ETFs [7] - RSP had significant net outflows in 2025 but benefited from a shift towards moderately sized large-caps in 2026 [8] Sector Performance - The State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) regained favor in 2026, gathering $3.2 billion, driven by strong quarterly results from major US banks [9]

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Andy Burnham had been widely tipped to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour Party leader - Ian Vogler/WPA Pool UK government borrowing costs have fallen after Sir Keir Starmer blocked leadership rival Andy Burnham from standing as an MP. The yield on benchmark 10-year gilts, as UK government bonds are known, fell as low as 4.47pc early on Monday, compared to a high of 4.51pc on Friday in the wake of the Gorton and Denton by-election announcement. Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked ...

Core Viewpoint - The CF40 macro policy quarterly report indicates that China's macro economy shows early signs of recovery in 2025, with monetary policy being crucial for stimulating endogenous growth in 2026 [1][2]. Economic Indicators - In 2025, key financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits have shown significant improvement [1]. - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and overall consumption and labor market conditions remain stable [1]. Recovery Support - The recovery is primarily supported by fiscal policy, external demand, and prior price adjustments, but investment and the real estate market still face considerable pressure [1]. - The endogenous growth momentum remains weak, and the sustainability of the recovery needs to be strengthened [1]. Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The report emphasizes the need for increased counter-cyclical policy efforts, particularly through active fiscal measures and a focus on monetary policy [1][2]. - It is suggested that broad fiscal spending should be around 41 trillion yuan, with a public budget deficit aligned with 4% of GDP [2]. Monetary Policy Focus - The importance of monetary policy in expanding domestic demand is highlighted, with recommendations to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate, deposit rates, and LPR rates [2]. - A commitment to inflation targets and significant reductions in policy rates are seen as key actions to shift expectations for businesses and households [2][3]. Structural Issues and Market Dynamics - The long-standing "strong supply, weak demand" contradiction is noted as a source of instability in economic growth, with low consumption as a direct manifestation [3]. - To address this, it is proposed that the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation, alongside improving residents' income and social security [3].

Market Overview - U.S. equity index futures are retreating as investors prepare for a significant week with the anticipated FOMC hold and a busy corporate earnings schedule; the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow 30, and Russell 2000 all posted modest weekly declines [1] - Treasury yields are edging lower, with market pricing indicating a near certainty of a hold in the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts starting in July [1] Company Performance - Nvidia shares rose by 1.6% following news of CEO Jensen Huang's planned visit to China and reports that Chinese tech firms can prepare orders for H200 chips [2] - Intel shares plummeted by 17%, marking its worst day since 2024 due to weak earnings guidance [2] - Capital One shares fell by 7.6% after a $5.15 billion acquisition of Brex and a fourth-quarter earnings miss [2] - Clorox shares increased by 1.1% after agreeing to acquire Gojo Industries for $2.25 billion and reaffirming its 2026 outlook [2] - Booz Allen Hamilton shares jumped by 6.8% after raising its first-quarter earnings forecast [2] - Fortinet shares rose by 5.2% following an upgrade to buy by TD Cowen [2] - Ericsson shares surged by 8.9% after beating profit expectations and announcing a 15 billion krona share buyback program [2] Commodity Insights - Gold prices surpassed $5,000 for the first time as investors sought safety, with silver also rallying and briefly breaching $109 [3] - Oil prices (WTI) rose to $61 amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a slight increase in the U.S. oil rig count [3] Currency and Central Bank Updates - The U.S. Dollar Index fell into the 96s, reaching lows not seen since September, with significant losses against the Japanese yen due to intervention risks [4] - The European Central Bank's Kocher noted that trade threats raise economic risks but cautioned against pre-emptively adjusting policy [5] - Bank of England's Greene indicated that the decline in wage growth has likely run its course, with forward indicators raising concerns [5] - Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda held rates steady but suggested a potential rate hike could occur in three months [5] Client Sentiment and Market Trends - Client sentiment in the S&P has shifted to extreme long at 78%, with notable increases in long sentiment for the Dow and Russell [6] - Commodities saw heavy buying in gold and silver, with gold sentiment climbing to 77% after breaching $5,000 [6] - Shifts in FX sentiment included a move from majority long to majority short in EUR/USD and a shift to majority buy in USD/JPY [6] Economic Data and Upcoming Events - U.S. preliminary manufacturing PMI improved to 51.9, while services held at 52.5, missing forecasts; consumer sentiment improved to 56.4 [8] - Upcoming economic data includes U.S. housing price data, FOMC policy announcement, and earnings from major companies like UnitedHealth, Microsoft, and Apple [9]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a slight decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Neutral" zone with a reading of 52.4, down from 52.8 [6] - U.S. stocks settled mixed, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 250 points during the session, closing lower by around 285 points to 49,098.71 [4] Stock Performance - Goldman Sachs shares fell around 4% on Friday, while Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. saw gains of 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively [2] - Intel Corp. shares dipped around 17% after issuing a weak first-quarter outlook [2] - The S&P 500 rose 0.03% to 6,915.61, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.28% at 23,501.24 during Friday's session [4] Economic Data - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 56.4 in January from a preliminary reading of 54.0 and December's reading of 52.9 [3] - The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 52.8 in January from 52.7 in the previous month [3] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with materials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples stocks recording the biggest gains [4] - Financial and industrials stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing lower [4] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are awaiting earnings results from Steel Dynamics Inc., Nucor Corp., and Sanmina Corp. [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic outlook, interest rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets Core Insights US Rates - Yields are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a forecast for 2-year yields around 3.60% and 10-year yields at 4.25% by 1H26, and 3.85% and 4.35% by YE26 respectively [10][33] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts in 1H26, with a target range for the funds rate of 3.25-3.5% by 1Q26 [10][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.5% in 1Q26 before easing to 4.3% by 4Q26 [10] International Rates - Growth in developed markets (DM) is expected to remain at or above potential, with inflation gradually declining but remaining above target in some areas [4] - Central banks in DM are likely to pause or conclude easing cycles in 1H26, with specific forecasts for 10-year yields: 4.35% for UST, 2.75% for Bunds, and 4.75% for gilts by 4Q26 [4][36] Commodities - The oil market is expected to stabilize due to rising demand and production cuts, with a bullish outlook for gold projected to reach $5,000/oz [6] - Agricultural stock-to-use ratios are expected to remain low, indicating potential supply constraints [6] Currencies - A bearish bias on the USD is anticipated, driven by positive growth in the rest of the world (RoW) and US twin deficits [52] - Preference for high beta/yielding currencies, with key themes including global procyclicality and synchronized central bank pauses [53] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to experience lower macro volatility, supporting local markets in 2026 [6] - Growth and inflation in EM are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing [6] Additional Important Insights - The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [17][20] - The demand for Treasuries is shifting towards more price-sensitive investors, which may help keep long-term yields anchored at higher levels [29] - The passage of the OBBBA raised the debt limit by $5 trillion, expected to last until the second half of 2027 [23] - Seasonal patterns suggest a gradual decrease in bill sizes into December, followed by a rebound as corporate taxes lift the Treasury General Account (TGA) [21][23] Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a cautious but stable environment for interest rates, commodities, and currencies, with specific attention to the evolving dynamics in emerging markets and the implications of fiscal policies on Treasury demand and yields.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **Mining and Metals** industry, with a specific emphasis on **China's economic outlook** and its implications for the sector [2][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **China's GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" GDP growth for 2026, with a likely revision to "at least 4.5%" for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The forecast for real growth in 2026 is set at **4.7%**, down from approximately **5%** in 2025 [2][6][8]. - **Deflationary Pressures**: Persistent deflationary pressures are highlighted, with expectations of a **CPI** average of **0.7%** in 2026 and continued **PPI** deflation due to excess supply [11][14]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The central government budget deficit is projected at **4%** of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) near **11%**. Incremental support for consumption is expected to be modest at **0.5%** of GDP [11][13]. - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to maintain a cautious easing path, with one **10 basis point** policy rate cut in each half of the year [2][16]. - **Housing Market Correction**: The housing market correction is expected to persist into 2026, with new home sales, starts, and prices continuing to contract without major policy support [3][15]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Impact on Metals Demand**: The emphasis on advanced manufacturing, AI, and electrical grid investment in the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to positively influence demand for base metals, particularly copper. The top pick in the EMEA Mining & Steel sector is **Antofagasta**, projected to benefit from approximately **30%** copper volume growth by 2029 [3][23]. - **Export Growth**: After strong growth in 2025, nominal export growth is expected to slow to about **3.4%** in 2026, with net exports contributing roughly **1.0 percentage point** to GDP growth [6][7]. Additional Important Points - **Geopolitical Risks**: The geopolitical landscape is evolving, with increased focus on spheres of influence and potential impacts on global commodities. The recent U.S.-China summit resulted in lower bilateral tariffs, but the sustainability of such arrangements remains uncertain [10][18][19]. - **AI Integration**: China's AI adoption is a core pillar of its economic strategy, with a focus on integrating AI across industries. However, productivity gains are expected to be incremental and dependent on effective workflow integration [17][9]. Companies Discussed - **Antofagasta**: Rated as Overweight (OW) with a target price reflecting strong growth potential in copper production [23]. - **First Quantum Minerals Ltd**: Also discussed in the context of investment opportunities within the mining sector [23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the implications for the mining and metals industry, particularly in relation to China's economic policies and market conditions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the global currency landscape, particularly the role of the USD and gold as a reserve asset in the context of a multipolar world [2][12][59]. Core Insights 1. **Decline of USD's International Footprint**: - The USD's share in global central bank FX reserves has decreased to 56.9% in Q3 2025 from 57.1% in Q2 2025 and 57.9% in Q3 2024, marking a gradual decline [9][14]. - The USD's market share in FX corporate bond issuance fell from 60% to 58% in 2025, while the EUR increased its share by 2.5 percentage points to 34% [14][21]. - The average market share of the USD across six metrics has dropped below 50% for the first time since at least 2001 [21]. 2. **Gold's Rising Share in Reserves**: - Gold's share in central bank reserves has increased from approximately 14% to between 25% and 28% currently, indicating a significant shift towards gold as a reserve asset [9][39]. - Central banks now hold more in gold (around $4 trillion) than in US Treasuries ($3.9 trillion) for the first time since 1996 [38]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 43% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next year, with no banks anticipating a decline [40]. 3. **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: - Elevated US debt levels and fiscal sustainability concerns are influencing the USD's role as a reserve currency [59]. - Trade policy uncertainty and the use of tariffs may adversely affect the USD's demand, as they can reduce trading volumes [59]. - Geopolitical risks, including military alliances, can either bolster or diminish the USD's attractiveness as a reserve currency [61]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook**: - The report maintains a bearish bias on the USD, with expectations of continued pressure due to risk premia and geopolitical tensions [33]. - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by year-end, driven by strong demand from central banks and ETFs [54]. Additional Important Insights - The transition towards a multipolar world is expected to continue influencing the USD's dominance, with policy factors playing a critical role in this shift [59]. - The increasing share of gold in reserves is partly attributed to central banks' responses to geopolitical crises, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to a doubling of annual gold purchases [39]. - The report highlights the growing gap between reported and actual gold purchases, suggesting a significant amount of unreported buying, which could further elevate gold's share in reserves [41]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the dynamics of the USD and gold in the current economic landscape.