Labor Market - Initial Jobless Claims came in at +200K, which is 8K below expectations and a slight increase from the previous week's revised figure of +199K [1] - The four-week average of new jobless claims is now +202K, which is 15K lower than the previous four weeks [1] - Continuing Claims reached 1.85 million, down from 1.884 million the previous week, marking the second-lowest level since last year's Memorial Day to Thanksgiving period [2] Economic Growth - Q3 GDP was revised up to +4.4%, the highest single quarter since +4.7% in Q3 of 2023, driven by increases in exports, investments, and inventories [3] Earnings Reports - GE Aerospace reported Q4 earnings of $1.57 per share, beating estimates of $1.44, with revenues of $11.87 billion, surpassing expectations by 5.38%, although shares are down -3% due to slowing revenue growth [4] - Procter & Gamble's fiscal Q2 earnings were $1.88, slightly above estimates, while revenues were $22.21 billion, falling short by -0.36% [5] - Abbott Labs met earnings estimates of $1.50 per share but fell short on revenue projections at $11.46 billion, leading to a -7.2% drop in shares [6] - Freeport-McMoRan reported earnings of 47 cents per share, exceeding the estimated 28 cents, with revenues of $5.63 billion, surpassing expectations of $5.18 billion, and shares are up slightly [7] Upcoming Earnings - Major companies such as Intel, Intuitive Surgical, and Capital One are set to release earnings after today's close, all currently holding Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) ratings [8]

Financial Performance (4Q25) - EPS reached $1.27[7] - Total core revenues amounted to $185.4 million[7] - Net Interest Margin (NIM) stood at 5.12%[7] - Provision for credit losses was $31.9 million[7] - Non-interest expense totaled $105.0 million[7] - Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) was $79.3 million[7] Financial Position (EOP 4Q25) - Total assets reached $12.5 billion[7] - Customer deposits totaled $9.9 billion[7] - Loans held for investment were $8.2 billion[7] - Investments amounted to $2.8 billion[7] - Cash holdings were $1.0 billion[7] Capital Adequacy (4Q25) - CET1 ratio was 13.97%[7] - Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital Ratio was 13.97%[7] - Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio was 15.24%[7] - Leverage Ratio was 10.71%[7] Digital Adoption (4Q25) - 96% of all routine transactions were conducted through digital channels[17] - 98% of all deposit transactions were conducted through digital channels[17] - 71% of all loan payments were made digitally[17]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures indicate a higher open, extending Wednesday's relief rally, driven by a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and anticipation of key inflation data [1][3] - Major U.S. indexes, including Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones, show solid premarket gains, with Nasdaq 100 futures up approximately 0.8% to 0.9% and S&P 500 futures rising between 0.5% and 0.6% [2] Economic Data - Investors are awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, with expectations for the Core PCE Price Index to rise 2.8% year-on-year in November [5] - Weekly jobless claims and revised third-quarter U.S. GDP data are also on the agenda, with the initial GDP growth estimate for Q3 2025 at 4.3% [6] Corporate Earnings and Developments - GameStop (GME) shares are up 3.5% in premarket trading following CEO Ryan Cohen's acquisition of 500,000 shares [8] - McCormick & Co. (MKC) shares are down 6% to 6.8% due to a soft fiscal 2026 profit projection and missed profit targets [8] - Procter & Gamble Company (PG) slipped 1.2% after its earnings report barely met profit targets but fell short on revenue, leading to a lowered full-year profit guidance [12] - Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) shares are up 3% in premarket trading, potentially benefiting from an expected catastrophic ice storm [12] - Intel Corporation (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) show premarket gains of 0.76% to 1.55% and 2.21% to 2.48%, respectively, following significant surges on Wednesday [12] Notable Stock Movements - Other notable premarket gainers include Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Western Digital Corporation (WDC), and Moderna Inc. (MRNA), with respective gains of 2.51% to 2.62%, 2.89% to 2.96%, 3.29% to 3.61%, and 4.34% to 4.98% [12] - Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is up 1.07% to 1.45%, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is up 1.32% to 2.01%, and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) shows a rise of 0.92% to 1.11% in premarket trading [12]

Group 1 - The author of Novo Capital has five years of experience providing strategic insights and analysis for clients in the private banking sector of a leading Central Asian bank [1] - The methodology developed by the author focuses on corporate valuation, due diligence for investment opportunities, and creating accurate forecasts to guide long-term investment strategies [1] - Novo Capital was established to facilitate discussions on investment ideas and to provide out-of-consensus information that can lead to alpha generation [1]

Economic Performance - Food prices have risen faster during Trump's first year back in office compared to Biden's last year, contradicting his promise to lower grocery costs [1][3] - Household energy prices increased by 7.3% under Trump, more than double the rate during Biden's last year [3] - A significant portion of Americans, 49%, believe the economy is worse than a year ago, with 54% disapproving of Trump's economic management [5] Policy Proposals - Trump's proposals include capping credit card interest rates, which may limit access to credit for higher-risk borrowers [8] - Plans to cut housing costs, such as barring investors from buying single-family homes, could negatively impact residential construction and increase housing costs over time [9] - Some proposals, like launching a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, appear disconnected from economic realities [10] Political Strategy - Trump's approach includes a mix of incoherent policy proposals aimed at signaling solidarity with distressed voters, straying from traditional Republican free-market principles [12] - Historical context suggests that tapping into voter grievances can be effective, as seen in Trump's previous campaign promises that resonated with working-class voters [15] - The current political landscape reflects a shift from prioritizing economic efficiency to addressing the concerns of communities adversely affected by globalization [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. actions and rhetoric under President Trump, particularly regarding Europe, and emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its financial independence and investment at home in response to U.S. pressures [1][2][9]. Economic Context - Europe is urged to invest more of its vast savings domestically, as reliance on the U.S. economy and its capital markets poses risks, especially given the current political climate [2][11]. - The U.S. is identified as the world's largest debtor nation, relying on foreign capital, including significant European investments, to fund its deficits [6][9]. Investment Strategies - Joint borrowing within the eurozone is proposed as a means to create a safe asset that could rival U.S. Treasuries, thereby enhancing Europe's financial strength [5][12]. - The article highlights the need for Europe to better integrate its capital markets and develop a larger pool of safe assets to compete with U.S. financial instruments [12][15]. Market Reactions - The article notes that Trump's tariff threats led to market volatility, but his quick reversal indicates a vulnerability in U.S. policy and a potential leverage point for Europe [7][8]. - European investors have historically benefited from capital exports to the U.S., but the current political climate may necessitate a reevaluation of this strategy [10][15]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that ongoing tensions and unpredictability in U.S. policies could drive European investors to diversify away from U.S. assets, although this process may take time [11][15]. - The need for Europe to bolster its military and infrastructure spending is highlighted as a way to increase the supply of European bonds, which could help stem capital outflows [12][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in savings in Jiangsu Province, with a total deposit balance of 27.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.52% [1][4] - The household deposits in Jiangsu Province reached 13.3 trillion yuan, indicating a robust savings trend among residents [1][4] - The per capita savings in Jiangsu is reported to be 156,000 yuan, an increase of 16,000 yuan compared to 139,900 yuan in 2024 [3][7] Group 2 - On a national level, the total deposits of the resident sector in China reached 166 trillion yuan by the end of last year, marking a twofold increase over the past decade and setting a historical high [4][7] - The estimated per capita savings for the national population of 1.4 billion is approximately 118,000 yuan [4][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the expertise of Sensor Unlimited, who has a PhD in financial economics and has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry for the past decade [2] - Sensor Unlimited focuses on asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [2] - The investing group Envision Early Retirement, led by Sensor Unlimited, offers solutions for generating high income and growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation [2] Group 2 - Envision Early Retirement features two model portfolios: one for short-term survival/withdrawal and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - The group provides direct access via chat for discussing ideas, monthly updates on all holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques by request [2]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is considering retaliatory measures in response to U.S. President Trump's proposed tariffs on several EU nations, which could significantly impact European businesses [1][6]. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU has frozen its trade deal with the U.S. following Trump's announcement of 10% tariffs on six EU nations, the U.K., and Norway starting February 1 [1]. - Business leaders are urging the EU to review all trade defense instruments, including the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which should be considered a last resort [2]. - There are calls for Europe to act decisively to protect its interests and not to be coerced by the U.S. [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Proposed Tariffs - If the tariffs are implemented, U.K. businesses could face costs of £6 billion, potentially rising to £15 billion (approximately $20 billion) by June if tariffs increase to 25% [6]. - The U.K. has significant bilateral trade with the U.S., valued at £300 billion, and substantial investments on both sides, indicating a high level of economic interdependence [7]. - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that European countries' substantial holdings in U.S. assets could provide leverage in counter-measures against new tariffs [8]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Concerns - The European mechanical and plant engineering industry is particularly vulnerable, facing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which could affect over half of all exported machinery [9]. - High bureaucratic costs are also cited as a barrier to transactions, compounding the impact of tariffs on the industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for minimizing the risks associated with declining global demand for U.S. Treasuries, emphasizing that this could lead to higher interest rates for consumers [2][4]. Group 1: Treasury Demand Concerns - The Danish pension fund, AkademikerPension, announced its decision to divest from U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over "poor U.S. government finances" and plans to invest in alternatives like cash and short-dated agency debt [4]. - Foreign governments now hold only 15% of U.S. Treasuries, a significant decrease from 40% in the 2010s, indicating a changing profile of U.S. government debt holders [4][5]. - For the first time in nearly three decades, foreign central banks held more gold than U.S. Treasuries, marking a notable shift in the global financial landscape [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The iShares Treasury Bond ETF (BATS: GOVT), which tracks U.S. Treasury bonds, saw a slight increase of 0.22% on Wednesday, closing at $23.00, although it has an unfavorable price trend in the short, medium, and long terms [6].