The consensus price target for Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) has declined over the past year, with a recent average price target of $543.Analyst Mircea Dobre from Robert W. Baird sets a cautious price target of $487 for Deere, reflecting concerns over cost pressures and slipping earnings estimates.Deere's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into how the company is managing current challenges compared to its competitor, Caterpillar.Deere & Company (NYSE: DE ...

Trade Deal Overview - The U.S. and Switzerland are nearing a trade deal to reduce tariffs imposed by President Trump from 39% to potentially 15% [1][2] - The reduction aims to align Swiss tariffs with those imposed on EU exports to the U.S. [2] Economic Impact - The high tariffs have negatively affected Swiss exports, particularly in key sectors such as watches, jewelry, machinery, chocolate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4] - Shares of Swiss companies, including Swatch Group and Richemont, saw an increase following news of the potential tariff reduction [4] Government Response - Swiss officials, including Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, are in regular contact with U.S. authorities regarding the ongoing discussions [3] - The Swiss economy ministry has refrained from commenting on the negotiations, indicating a cautious approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The potential trade war initiated by President Trump's tariff plans could lead to a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market, with estimates suggesting a drop of up to 20% in the S&P 500 due to heightened tariffs on major trading partners, particularly China [2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - President Trump's proposed tariffs on China could reach as high as 100%, significantly impacting U.S. companies that rely on Chinese imports, such as Walmart, which sources approximately 60% of its merchandise from China [3][5]. - The initial tariff plans included raising tariffs on China to 54%, with discussions of a potential 245% tariff, which would severely affect the economies of major trade partners like Canada and Mexico [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - A trade war with China is expected to have immediate and widespread effects on the U.S. economy, potentially leading to inflation rates similar to the 9% level experienced in mid-2022, which severely diminished consumer purchasing power [2][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations has created volatility in the stock market, as the unpredictability of presidential decisions complicates forecasts for many companies and industries [7][8]. Group 3: Retaliation Risks - China may retaliate against U.S. companies operating within its borders, which could include major retailers like Starbucks and Walmart, further complicating the trade dynamics and impacting their operations [6][9].

Market Overview - The stock market has shown resilience in June following a significant rally from April lows, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 maintaining their positions ahead of the second quarter earnings season starting in mid-July [1] - The bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing trade war progress, controlled inflation, and growing corporate earnings [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to remain engaged with the market and continue purchasing stocks, even amid bearish sentiment [2] - A recommended approach for stock selection in June includes targeting companies with improving earnings outlooks that achieve a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and demonstrate efficient profit generation [2] Return on Equity (ROE) - ROE is a critical metric for assessing a company's ability to generate profits from shareholder equity, calculated as net income divided by shareholder's equity [3] - A higher ROE indicates effective management in creating value and controlling costs, while a decline in ROE may signal potential issues [4] Stock Screening Criteria - The screening process includes several parameters: - Zacks Rank equal to 1, indicating strong earnings estimate revisions [4] - Stock price greater than or equal to $5 to avoid volatility [5] - Price/Sales Ratio less than or equal to 1 for better value [6] - Broker Rating of Strong Buy equal to 100% [7] - ROE greater than or equal to 10% to filter out underperforming companies [7] Company Spotlight: Marubeni - Marubeni (MARUY) is a Japanese trading and investment conglomerate involved in a diverse range of products and services across nearly 70 countries [9] - The stock has appreciated 250% over the past decade, outperforming the S&P 500's 200% increase, and is currently trading at a 35% discount to its sector [10] - Marubeni's ROE stands at 13.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.13%, and it offers a dividend yield of 2.71% [11]

Core Insights - Caterpillar (CAT) has announced a 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.51 per share, marking the 31st consecutive year of dividend increases, demonstrating resilience amid near-term challenges [1][3][11] Dividend Performance - The annualized dividend of $6.04 results in a yield of 1.69%, which exceeds the manufacturing - construction and mining industry's yield of 1.58%, the sector's yield of 1.47%, and the S&P 500's yield of 1.24% [2] - Caterpillar's payout ratio stands at 26.91%, higher than the industry's 23.61% [2] Financial Context - The dividend increase follows a weaker-than-expected first-quarter 2025 performance, with declines in both revenues and earnings due to softer volumes [3] - Despite the challenges, the increase reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term cash-generating capacity [3][7] Historical Dividend Trends - Caterpillar has consistently paid cash dividends since its formation and has been a member of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index since 2019 [4] - Over the past five years, the company's dividend has grown at approximately 8%, supported by nearly doubling its free cash flow [5] Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Caterpillar returned around $10.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with an additional $4.3 billion returned in the first quarter of 2025 [5][11] - The company aims to return substantially all Machinery, Energy & Transportation (ME&T) free cash flow to shareholders over time [6] Market Position and Outlook - The recent dividend hike enhances investor confidence in Caterpillar's long-term growth outlook, supported by ongoing technological innovation and expected recovery in end-market demand [7] - Caterpillar's stock has experienced a decline of 1.6% year-to-date, compared to the industry's 1.1% growth and the S&P 500's gain of 1.5% [12] Valuation Metrics - Caterpillar is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.04X, below the industry average of 19.86X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.6% in earnings for 2025, with a revenue drop of 2.4% expected [14]

Company Overview - Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK) is a prominent manufacturer of purpose-built trucks, defense-grade vehicles, and machinery, playing a crucial role in supplying tactical wheeled vehicles to the U.S. Army and allied militaries [2]. Industry Context - The aerospace, defense, and airline industry presents significant growth prospects, with a focus on discovering investment opportunities within this sector [2]. Analyst Background - The analysis is conducted by an individual with a background in aerospace engineering, providing context to developments in the industry and their potential impact on investment theses [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Multi-Industrials** sector in the **USA** and includes insights on global manufacturing indicators [1][2]. Core Insights - **Sentiment Indicators**: There has been a decline in sentiment indicators, indicating a high level of uncertainty among companies. Despite this, many companies reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter [2][4]. - **Tariff-Related Uncertainty**: Companies highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, which have led to limited pre-buying activity. Management teams are looking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through pricing and operational strategies [2][4]. - **Manufacturing Activity**: Hard data suggests solid manufacturing activity, while soft data indicates worsening manufacturing conditions. The ISM manufacturing PMI has shown contraction for two consecutive months, with a decline in the index for the fourth straight month [3][4][17]. - **Future Confidence**: Future confidence among manufacturers has dropped to its lowest levels since June 2024, primarily due to supply disruptions and tariff-related cost concerns [2][4]. Key Data Points - **Manufacturing PMI**: The April ISM manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 points month-over-month (M/M) [8][49]. - **S&P US Manufacturing PMI**: Remained flat at 50.2 in April, indicating stagnation in manufacturing activity [8][17]. - **Production Trends**: Production has fallen for two consecutive months, attributed to tariffs and rising uncertainty affecting export orders and customer spending [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: Increased inventory levels suggest a temporary strategy to avoid tariffs [2][4]. Regional Insights - **New York Manufacturing**: Current business activity index increased by 12 points M/M, while future business activity index declined by 20 points M/M [65]. - **Kansas City Manufacturing**: Current and future business activity declined by 2 points and 4 points M/M, respectively [68]. - **Richmond Manufacturing**: Current and future business activity indexes decreased by 9 points and 15 points M/M, respectively [59]. Global Context - **China's Manufacturing**: The official China PMI declined by 1.4 points M/M, indicating contraction in output and orders. The Caixin PMI also fell by 0.8 points to 50.4, reflecting a slowdown in export orders [17][74]. - **Eurozone Manufacturing**: The Eurozone PMI remained in contraction, but the rate of decline moderated, with factory production increasing for the second consecutive month [17][18]. Additional Observations - **Investment in Manufacturing**: China's investment in manufacturing fixed assets increased by 9.2% year-over-year (Y/Y) [70]. - **Industrial Confidence**: The EU industrial confidence indicator declined by 0.3 points M/M, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [82][84]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Multi-Industrials sector and its challenges.