每经编辑｜陈鹏程 王晓波 1 美国8月PCE物价指数公布 2美国9月密歇根大学消费者预期指数终值公布 ③ 2025无人机创新应用大会将于9月26日至27日 举办 4 HarmonyOS Connect伙伴峰会暨鸿蒙智选 2025年秋季新品发布会将于9月26日举办 ⑤2025人工智能计算大会将于9月26日举办 1 李强同美国友好团体座谈 当地时间9月25日，国务院总理李强在纽约同美国友好团体座谈。李强表示，经贸关系是两国关系的重要组成部分。中美两国市场结构差异较大、产业结构 互补性强，在国际产业链中都占据重要位置，双方加强经贸合作互利共赢，惠及全球。与会美方人士表示，希望美中保持高层交往，扩大各领域对话，加强 互利合作，密切人文交流，发展长期稳定的美中关系，为国际社会注入更多确定性。美国企业界看好中国经济发展前景，将继续扩大在华投资，为促进两国 合作、增进相互了解发挥桥梁作用。（新华社） 2 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.38%，纳指跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.5%，三大股指均连续第三个交易日下滑；甲骨文跌超5%，特斯拉跌超4%，Meta跌 超1%；英特尔大涨近9%，苹果涨超1%；稀土概念、贵金 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 尼特族（NEET，not in employment, education or training）是指"未就业且未接受教育或职业培训的 群体"，这一概念通常有年龄限制，专指青年群体（一般指15-24岁群体） 。该概念起源于英国，最开始的 流行伴随着个体群体的负面标签，随着其被广泛传播和研究，"污名化"逐步消去。目前多数国家或地区以及 国际组织均将其纳入青年就业监测体系，意义在于识别风险群体，即关注可能面临社会排斥、经济弱势和 未来发展受限的青年，更全面地反映青年边缘化问题，并帮助政府制定针对性措施。 一般认为尼特族的成因有如下因素：第一，经济因素 ，经济发展速度放缓，人力资源过剩；经济周期影 响，就业环境恶化。 第二，教育和社会因素 ，教育方针可能与社会发展不匹配，更完善的社保和更宽容的 社会环境降低了青年就业的紧迫性；新一代青年更注重生活品质和自由。 第三，文化因素 ，在某些文化语 境中，女性通常被期望优先承担家庭责任而非职业发展。 第四，家庭因素。第五，个人因素 ，丧 ...

1. 9月23日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.16%，标普500指数期货涨0.01%，纳指期货涨0.01%。 | ■ US 30 | 46,454.60 | 46,485.00 | 46,354.50 | +73.10 | +0.16% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,694.40 | 6,697.60 | 6,687.10 | +0.60 | +0.01% | | ■ US Tech 100 | 24,764.50 | 24,785.00 | 24,732.50 | +3.40 | +0.01% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.34%，英国富时100指数涨0.16%，法国CAC40指数涨0.87%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.63%。 | 1 德國DAX30 | 23,616.56 | 23,730.83 | 23,562.93 | +80.09 | +0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 淵 英國富時100 | 9,241.22 | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】海外周报第 107 期 全球 2.6 亿"NEET"族 主要观点 本篇周报以国际劳工组织数据为基础，观察"尼特族"这一全球共性现象。整 体上，尼特族占青年人口的比例，受经济发展水平和文化语境的影响较大。主 要发达经济体的尼特族占比基本接近，在略高于 10%的水平。与主观感觉相悖 的是，日本的尼特族占比是全球最低的，只有 3.1%。 尼特族是什么？成因为何？ 尼特族（NEET，not in employment, education or training）是指"未就业且 未接受教育或职业培训的群体"，这一概念通常有年龄限制，专指青年群体（一 般指 15-24 岁群体）。该概念起源于英国，最开始的流行伴随着个体群体的负 面标签，随着其被广泛传播和研究，"污名化"逐步消去。目前多数国家或地 区以及国际组织均将其纳入青年就业监测体系，意义在于识别风险群体，即关 注可能面临社会排斥、经济弱势和未来发展受限的青年，更全面地反映青年边 缘化问题，并帮助政府制定针对性措施。 一般认为尼特族的成因有如下因素：第一，经济因素，经济发展速度放缓，人 力资源过剩；经济周期影响，就业 ...

Core Points - Multiple European airports, including London Heathrow, Brussels, and Berlin Brandenburg, experienced operational disruptions due to a cyberattack on Collins Aerospace, a service provider for check-in and boarding systems [1][3] - The incident is part of a broader trend of cyberattacks targeting various sectors, including healthcare, defense, retail, and automotive, highlighting the vulnerability of interconnected digital systems in the aviation industry [3][4] Group 1: Incident Details - The cyberattack primarily affected electronic check-in and baggage handling services, leading to delays and requiring passengers to check in manually at some airports [3][4] - Heathrow Airport reported that "technical issues" impacted software used by multiple airlines, resulting in flight delays, while Brussels Airport noted that passengers had to use manual check-in due to the attack [3][4] - Berlin Brandenburg Airport faced longer wait times, with messages indicating extended passenger waiting periods due to technical faults [3] Group 2: Industry Response - The European Commission is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating with aviation safety organizations and airlines to restore normal operations and support travelers [4] - The incident has not affected aviation safety or air traffic control, and officials described it as not a "large-scale or severe cyberattack" [4] - Cybersecurity experts emphasize that the aviation industry is increasingly attractive to cybercriminals due to its reliance on shared digital systems, which can lead to widespread disruptions when a single supplier is compromised [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the visa-free policy between China and Russia, which is expected to enhance economic and cultural exchanges, particularly in tourism and trade [2][19][20] - The visa-free policy allows ordinary passport holders to stay for up to 30 days for various purposes, including business and family visits, thus reducing time and economic costs for frequent travelers [2][5] - The initial response from the market indicates a surge in demand for flights and travel services, with airlines increasing flight frequencies and travel agencies launching cross-border tourism products [5][12][14] Group 2 - The media coverage emphasizes the economic benefits and potential for increased human exchanges, with a focus on tourism and educational cooperation as key growth areas [6][7][19] - There is a notable shortage of Russian-speaking tour guides in northeastern Chinese cities, reflecting the immediate impact of the policy on local tourism infrastructure [5][10] - The policy's implementation is seen as a double-edged sword, presenting opportunities for increased cooperation while also raising concerns about potential talent outflow from Russia [15][17] Group 3 - The initial excitement surrounding the policy did not translate into a significant increase in cross-border marriages, as the actual data on foreign marriages remains stable [9][18] - The long-term success of the visa-free policy will depend on how effectively both countries can manage the increased flow of people and ensure adequate border management and services [10][15][20] - Future developments are expected to focus on enhancing economic cooperation, cultural exchanges, and the growth of the tourism sector, with an emphasis on converting initial interest into sustained engagement [19][20]

截至发稿，吉祥航空市值为297亿元。 （记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，吉祥航空（SH 603885，收盘价：13.59元）9月17日晚间发布公告称，上海吉祥航空股份 有限公司控股股东上海均瑶（集团）有限公司持有公司股份约10.21亿股，占公司股份总数的46.74%， 均瑶集团累计质押公司股票（含本次）约8.14亿股，占其所持公司股份数的79.71%，占公司股份总数的 37.26%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——海拔4306米现"秦始皇密令"，获官方"身份认定"！古文字学家刘钊：秦人 寻仙采药足迹确至青藏高原 2025年1至6月份，吉祥航空的营业收入构成为：交通运输和仓储和邮政业占比100.0%。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：Harry文社） 凌晨两点的华盛顿，一场没有硝烟的"内战" 2025年9月17日，美联储埃克尔斯大楼地下二层，咖啡味混着打印机碳粉味。走廊尽头，理事沃勒把一 张折成四折的A4纸塞进布雷纳德手里——纸上只有一行手写体："25 or 50？This is not math, this is religion." 是的，降息多少已不再是经济学，而是信仰。鸽派把2.2万的新增就业看作"衰退先兆"，鹰派把3.3%的 核心通胀预测当成"撒旦之火"。鲍威尔必须在午夜前让12个人在一张声明上签字，而市场已经把预期打 到"9月100%降息"的铜墙铁壁上。 这一幕，像极了1979年沃尔克反通胀的镜像：当年是"加息到地球毁灭"，今天是"降息到宇宙尽头"。历 史不会重复，却爱开彩蛋。 （二）"数据打架"现场：同一组数字，三种剧本 1. 就业：2.2万新增就业 vs. 4.3%失业率 鸽派说"就业塌方"，鹰派说"劳动力市场只是退烧"，而交易员的解读最简洁：萨姆规则（失业率三个月 均值较前12个月低点上升0.5%以上）已亮红灯，衰退概率飙至62%。 2. 通胀：CPI 2.6% vs. 核心服务5.1% 鸽派盯的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The incident surrounding the murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has sparked a nationwide backlash, leading to numerous employees being fired or suspended for their comments on social media [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - Major companies, including American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Airlines, have taken disciplinary actions against employees involved in controversial posts, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy towards politically motivated violence [4][5]. - Law firms and various employers have confirmed dismissals of employees whose comments were deemed inconsistent with company values, indicating a trend of corporate accountability in response to public sentiment [3][4]. - The U.S. Department of Justice has expressed intentions to investigate incidents related to employee comments, highlighting the legal implications for companies regarding employee conduct [5]. Group 2: Social Media and Public Response - A rapidly spreading online movement has emerged, where activists compile and publicize the names and employers of individuals who made controversial posts, pressuring companies to act [2][3]. - The incident has led to a significant increase in public reporting of employee comments, with some individuals actively contacting hundreds of employers to report perceived misconduct [3][4]. - The backlash has raised concerns about the accuracy and potential consequences of relying on online reports, as seen in the case of a school vice principal who was wrongly implicated in the controversy [8]. Group 3: Legal and Ethical Considerations - Legal experts note that private companies can terminate employees for comments made outside of work if they conflict with company values, raising questions about the boundaries of free speech in the workplace [6]. - The challenge of defining what constitutes "crossing the line" in employee speech has become a pressing issue, as companies navigate the complexities of public opinion and employee rights [8]. - The incident reflects a broader trend of increasing corporate scrutiny over employee expressions on social issues, suggesting a potential shift in workplace culture towards less tolerance for controversial opinions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The UAE is strengthening its leading position in global aviation safety through a comprehensive safety system, enhanced regulatory mechanisms, advanced technology applications, and continuous professional talent development [1] Group 1: Aviation Safety Achievements - The UAE achieved a high score of 98.86% in the comprehensive safety audit conducted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), ranking among the top globally [1] - The UAE's aviation authority has released a report emphasizing the principle of safety first and the continuous update of the national aviation safety plan to align with international best practices [1] Group 2: National Aviation Safety Plan - The 2023-2026 National Aviation Safety Plan focuses on reducing operational risks, enhancing regulatory capabilities, and integrating safety culture into institutional frameworks, in line with ICAO's global planning [1] Group 3: Talent Development and Regulatory Actions - The UAE is committed to enhancing the capabilities of aviation inspectors and technical experts to meet the regulatory demands of complex environments, with over 900 regulatory actions planned for 2024 [1] - These actions include airworthiness checks, foreign operator audits, operational assessments, and license reviews [1] Group 4: Technological Innovations - The UAE is the first country globally to implement an AI-driven, risk-based intelligent regulatory system, enabling real-time risk monitoring, intelligent task prioritization for audits, and automated checklists, significantly improving regulatory efficiency [1] Group 5: International Collaboration - The UAE has launched the first national agreement for monitoring aviation-related infectious diseases, which includes early warning systems and on-site training, recognized by ICAO and the World Health Organization [1] - The UAE actively hosts international conferences to promote global aviation safety experience exchange, showcasing its international influence [1]