期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 11 月 10 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价震荡运行 核心观点 | 1 行情回顾 | | --- | | 1.1 周皮走势 . | | 1.2 指标涨跌幅 | | 2 金价震荡运行 . ·· | | 3 其他指标追踪 . | | 4 结论 . | 近期黄金价格呈现震荡整理格局，纽约金围绕 4000 美元关口震 荡，对应沪金围绕 915 元一线震荡。 近期影响金价的因素：1.美联储政策分歧主导市场情绪，美联储 内部对政策前景出现明显分歧。多位官员发表鹰派言论，导 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend during Monday's trading session, with gold and silver futures prices hitting new all - time highs. After the interest rate cut bullish factors were realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and the market entered a wide - range volatile correction starting last Wednesday. On Friday night, driven by the warming trading sentiment, the precious metals market continued to break through strongly, and the silver futures prices at home and abroad hit new all - time highs. Beyond the interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts and the intensifying US government debt problem are structurally bearish for the US dollar, providing strong support for the gold price. In the future, after the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance and the callback pressure gradually increases. There is a high possibility that the gold and silver prices will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs. The market's strong bullish sentiment towards the precious metals market may become more cautious, and the subsequent market trend will still depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. Interval band trading is recommended, and short positions can be lightly established on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 846.5 yuan/gram, up 15.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 346 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 260256 lots, up 20079 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 504051 lots, up 70069 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 174322 lots, up 2828 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 128977 lots, down 6586 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 57429 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1148624 kilograms, down 10819 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 835.4 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; the silver spot price was 10167 yuan/kilogram, up 306 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 11.1 yuan/gram, down 6.44 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 150 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, up 18.9 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15205.14 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.43%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.66%, down 0.01% [2] 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 17.62%, down 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 17.63%, down 5.01% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market bets that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will fall below 3% by the end of next year. US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, forcing both sides to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund to promote US factory and infrastructure construction. The EU Commission passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [2]

9月19日，美股三大指数集体收涨并创收盘新高，道指收涨0.37%，纳指收涨0.72%，标普500指数收涨0.49%。本周，标普500指数累计上涨1.22%，纳斯达 克指数上涨2.21%，道琼斯指数上涨1.05%。 大型科技股普涨，甲骨文涨超4%，苹果涨超3%，特斯拉涨超2%，周四大涨22%的英特尔周五收跌3%。 国际油价走弱，WTI 10月期货收于每桶62.68美元，跌幅为1.4%。布伦特11月期货收于每桶66.68美元，跌幅为1.13%。 美参议院未通过临时拨款法案 美联储降息大消息 美联储本周自去年12月以来首次降息25个基点。分析称，美联储的降息决定巩固了投资者信心，推动美股上涨并共创新高。 市场对进一步宽松的押注升温。芝商所（CME）FedWatch工具数据显示，美联储基金期货暗示10月会议再度降息25个基点的概率为89.8%，高于前一日的 87.4%。 美联储新任理事米兰表示，其认为货币政策相当具有限制性。他预计接下来几个月将继续降息。 现货黄金走高，再度站上3684美元/盎司。现货白银大涨3%。 热门中概股表现分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.25%。拼多多跌超2%，理想汽车、爱奇艺跌超1%，老虎 ...