转自：成都日报锦观 当地时间12月27日，记者获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他认为2026年中期选举的核心议题将是"价格"， 共和党将把重点放在生活成本问题上。他说，2026年中期选举将围绕"国家经济成功"与价格下降展开， 并强调能源和汽油价格已明显回落。 特朗普还谈及可能出现的政府"停摆"风险。他再次敦促参议院共和党人废除参议院冗长辩论规则，称该 机制已成为执政障碍。他表示，如果取消这一规则，将不会出现政府"停摆"，并称此举有助于推动医疗 改革和选民身份证立法等共和党优先事项。据央视新闻客户端（央视记者 徐德智） 涉及中期选举 美总统特朗普透露核心议题 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the gold price has shown a volatile consolidation pattern. New York gold fluctuates around the $4,000 mark, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fluctuates around 915 yuan [6][23]. - Factors influencing the gold price recently include: Fed policy divergence leading market sentiment, with multiple officials making hawkish statements, reducing the expectation of a December interest rate cut and pressuring the gold price; the risk of a US government shutdown and the delay in key economic data release weakening the US dollar's fundamentals and providing some safe - haven support for the gold price; the US dollar index hitting a three - month high, suppressing the gold price, but a short - term pullback in the US dollar index and pressure at the 100 mark corresponding to a recovery sign in the gold price [6][23]. - In the short term, the gold price is under pressure. Continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $4,000. In the medium - to - long term, the safe - haven allocation demand for gold still exists. If it declines, pay attention to the support at $3,900 and the 60 - day moving average [6][23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the US dollar index linkage, but no specific content about the weekly trend is described [10]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | November 7 | October 31 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,007.80 | $4,013.40 | - 0.14% | | COMEX Silver | $48.23 | $48.25 | - 0.05% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 921.26 yuan | 921.92 yuan | - 0.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,484.00 yuan | 11,441.00 yuan | 0.38% | | US Dollar Index | 99.55 | 99.73 | - 0.18% | | US Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.12 | 7.12 | 0.03% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.83 | 1.81 | + 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,728.80 | 6,840.20 | - 1.63% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $59.84 | $60.88 | - 1.71% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 83.11 | 83.18 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.22 | 80.58 | - 0.45% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,042.06 tons | 1,039.20 tons | + 2.86 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 481.84 tons | 483.00 tons | - 1.16 tons | [11] 2. Gold Price Volatility - Last week, the US dollar index rose and then fell, once breaking through the 100 mark and the high in late July. As the US dollar pulled back, the gold price gradually strengthened in the short term [13]. - Last week, market risk appetite declined, and the US stock market declined and then stabilized [15]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the gold price stabilized with fluctuations, and the outflow from ETFs slowed down [17]. - Last week, precious metals stabilized with fluctuations, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated weakly [19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating the current consolidation pattern of the gold price, influencing factors, short - term pressure, and medium - to - long - term safe - haven demand [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend during Monday's trading session, with gold and silver futures prices hitting new all - time highs. After the interest rate cut bullish factors were realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and the market entered a wide - range volatile correction starting last Wednesday. On Friday night, driven by the warming trading sentiment, the precious metals market continued to break through strongly, and the silver futures prices at home and abroad hit new all - time highs. Beyond the interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts and the intensifying US government debt problem are structurally bearish for the US dollar, providing strong support for the gold price. In the future, after the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance and the callback pressure gradually increases. There is a high possibility that the gold and silver prices will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs. The market's strong bullish sentiment towards the precious metals market may become more cautious, and the subsequent market trend will still depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. Interval band trading is recommended, and short positions can be lightly established on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 846.5 yuan/gram, up 15.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 346 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 260256 lots, up 20079 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 504051 lots, up 70069 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 174322 lots, up 2828 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 128977 lots, down 6586 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 57429 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1148624 kilograms, down 10819 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 835.4 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; the silver spot price was 10167 yuan/kilogram, up 306 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 11.1 yuan/gram, down 6.44 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 150 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, up 18.9 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15205.14 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.43%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.66%, down 0.01% [2] 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 17.62%, down 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 17.63%, down 5.01% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market bets that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will fall below 3% by the end of next year. US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, forcing both sides to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund to promote US factory and infrastructure construction. The EU Commission passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [2]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and S&P 500 up 0.49% [1] - For the week, S&P 500 rose 1.22%, Nasdaq increased by 2.21%, and Dow Jones gained 1.05% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Oracle rising over 4%, Apple up over 3%, and Tesla increasing by over 2% [3] - Intel, which surged 22% on Thursday, experienced a decline of 3% on Friday [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since December, boosting investor confidence and contributing to stock market gains [5] - Market expectations for further easing have increased, with an 89.8% probability of another 25 basis point cut in the October meeting, up from 87.4% [5] - New Fed Governor Milan indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive and expects continued rate cuts in the coming months [5] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices rose, reaching $3684 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 3% [5] Oil Market - International oil prices weakened, with WTI October futures closing at $62.68 per barrel, down 1.4%, and Brent November futures at $66.68 per barrel, down 1.13% [7] Government Funding - The U.S. Senate rejected a temporary funding bill passed by the House, increasing the risk of a government shutdown due to funding exhaustion [9] - The House had previously approved a seven-week temporary funding bill to avoid a shutdown, but bipartisan disagreements persist [10]