Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, presented by Robin Hood, the home to commission free trading. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures kicking off December trading in the red. Equities are sliding with risk assets after the S&P 500 barely managed to eek out a seventh straight month of gains. Crypto in particular is under pressure this morning.Bitcoin falling below $86,000 per token, bringing momentum back to the selloff that ha ...

Core Viewpoint - Target's stock is currently trading at a low price, with a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 11, raising questions about whether it represents a bargain or a value trap [1] Company Performance - Target has faced significant challenges, particularly as its core customers reduce discretionary spending due to high inflation [2] - Revenue declined by 1.5% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with comparable sales down 2.7%, leading to a decrease in earnings per share from $1.85 to $1.51 [3] Digital Sales - Despite overall sales struggles, digital sales have shown resilience, with digital comparable sales increasing by 2.4%, driven by a 35% rise in same-day options from Target's membership program [4] Competitive Landscape - Target's main competitors, Walmart and Costco, have performed better, with Walmart's comparable sales up 4.5% and Costco's up 5.7% in their most recent quarters [5] - Off-price retailer TJX Companies also reported a 5% year-over-year sales increase, highlighting Target's competitive challenges [5] Stock Performance - Target's stock has lost half its value over the past five years, erasing all pandemic gains, while the S&P 500 has risen significantly [6] - The company is undergoing a CEO transition, with Michael Fiddelke set to take over in January, although economic headwinds remain a concern [6] Key Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization is $41 billion, with a current stock price of $90.62 and a dividend yield of 5% [7] - Target has a gross margin of 25.36% and has consistently raised its dividend for 54 years, making it a "Dividend King" [7] Investment Considerations - Dividend investors may find the current yield attractive, as Target is known for reliable dividend growth and payments [8] - There is potential for stock price recovery if economic conditions improve, but caution is advised regarding timing [9]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined on the first trading day of December, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures falling by 0.4%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreasing by 0.7% [1] - The declines followed a holiday-shortened week where the S&P 500 surged 3.7%, Nasdaq Composite jumped nearly 5%, and Dow logged a solid 3.2% gain [2] Seasonal Trends - December is historically one of the market's friendliest months, often boosted by the "Santa Clause rally" during the Christmas break [3] - Analysts are cautious about a booming holiday season this year due to unpredictable market behavior throughout the year [3] Economic Indicators - The Thanksgiving week rally was largely driven by rising hopes for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with over 85% of bets on a quarter-point cut next week [4] - Economic releases are returning to normal after a government shutdown, with key reports including September's Personal Consumption Expenditures index and private reports on manufacturing and service sector activity [5] Corporate Earnings - Corporate earnings reports are expected this week from bargain retailers Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Five Below, as well as tech companies Salesforce and CrowdStrike [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the mixed macroeconomic environment as Black Friday approaches, highlighting a concentrated investment strategy in retail and technology sectors due to a "K-shaped" recovery [1][2]. Retail Sector Analysis - Louis Navellier recommends a focused investment in two major retailers, Costco Wholesale Corp. and Walmart Inc., citing their strong same-store sales growth amidst consumer spending constraints [3]. - The "trade-down" effect is emphasized, indicating that consumers are prioritizing value, which benefits discount retailers over luxury brands [3]. Holiday Spending Outlook - Despite predictions of record holiday revenue, the retail sector is viewed as risky due to consumer budget tightening, leading to a decline in overall shopping activity [4][9]. AI Sector Insights - The AI trade is evolving, with a shift in leadership towards companies that apply AI technology and those that build supporting infrastructure, rather than just hardware manufacturers [4][5]. - Specific companies identified as leaders in the AI application space include Applovin Corp. and Palantir Technologies Inc., while data center infrastructure firms like Vertiv Holdings Co. and Emcor Group Inc. are also highlighted [8]. Economic Context - Navellier argues that the U.S. is currently benefiting from China's economic slowdown, which is leading to imported deflation and alleviating pricing pressures from tariffs [6]. - The housing sector is facing challenges, with high ownership costs causing consumers to defer home improvement spending, negatively impacting companies like Home Depot and Lowe's [7][9]. Investment Strategy - The article concludes with a clear message for investors to avoid broad market indices and focus on concentrated opportunities in AI appliers, data center builders, and the two recommended retailers [10].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below (FIVE) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending October 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Five Below's quarterly earnings is $0.22 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 47.6%, while revenues are projected to reach $969.89 million, representing a 15% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.81% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows that Five Below has a positive Earnings ESP of +74.71%, suggesting a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate, supported by a Zacks Rank of 2 [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Five Below exceeded the expected earnings of $0.61 per share by delivering $0.81, resulting in a surprise of +32.79%. The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [12][13]. Conclusion - While Five Below is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, it is essential to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Group 1 - Wall Street anticipates continued investment in AI, with HSBC projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 by December 2026, indicating confidence in the AI-driven market rally [2][3] - HSBC's forecast suggests a potential 12% gain from current levels, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom, driven by an ongoing AI investment boom [3] - The firm recommends broadening the AI trade, suggesting that market rallies can persist despite concerns about a potential AI bubble [3] Group 2 - HSBC expects 2026 to be characterized by a "two-speed economy," highlighting disparities in consumer spending and confidence levels [6][10] - High earners and those with better credit scores are more optimistic and spending more, while low-income earners are more cautious and spending less [7][10] - The current earnings season supports the notion of a K-shaped economy, with premium-focused companies like Delta and Walmart performing well amid consumer pressure [9][10]

Washington-based Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has carved out a dominant position in global retail by selling high volumes of food and general merchandise at deeply discounted prices through its exclusive membership model. Supported by a growing network of warehouses across major international regions, the company continues to widen its global footprint. Alongside its physical expansion, Costco’s e-commerce platforms in many of these markets further strengthen its reach and accessibility. With a mar ...

Core Insights - The article discusses consumer behavior trends during economic downturns, highlighting a shift towards more budget-friendly options, as noted by the CEOs of McDonald's and Dollar General [1][2][3] Consumer Behavior Trends - There is a noticeable bifurcation in the consumer base in the U.S., with lower-income consumers experiencing a decline in quick-service restaurant (QSR) traffic by nearly double digits, while higher-income consumers show strong traffic growth of nearly double digits [2] - Dollar General has observed increased trade-in activity from both middle- and higher-income customers, indicating a shift in spending patterns towards discretionary categories [3][4] Company Performance - Both McDonald's and Dollar General have successfully attracted new customers despite losing some core customers [5] - McDonald's reported a 2.4% increase in U.S. same-store sales for the third quarter, while Dollar General's comparable store sales rose by 1.2% year over year in its most recent quarter [9] Dollar Tree's Challenges and Strategies - Dollar Tree has faced challenges, including the closure of over 600 Family Dollar stores and plans to close approximately 1,000 locations [6][7] - The company has reached an agreement to sell the Family Dollar brand for just over $1 billion, marking a significant milestone in its transformation journey [8][9] Dollar Tree's Financial Performance - Dollar Tree reported a 12.3% increase in net sales to $4.6 billion, driven by a 6.5% growth in comparable sales, indicating a balanced growth between traffic and ticket [14] - The company has implemented a multi-price strategy, diversifying its product range with items priced between $1.50 and $7, which aims to enhance the shopping experience and attract more customers [18] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts have expressed optimism regarding Dollar Tree's performance post-Family Dollar, suggesting that the chain may benefit from a more streamlined focus [19]

Core Insights - Tech and AI stocks faced significant declines this week, with Nvidia and Palantir experiencing notable drops, while the Nasdaq-100 had one of its worst performances since April [2] - In contrast, Ross Stores achieved record highs, exceeding market expectations and announcing aggressive expansion plans [3][4] Company Performance - Ross Stores reported third-quarter earnings of $1.58 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.42, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase [4][7] - Sales for Ross Stores increased by 10% to $5.6 billion, with same-store sales rising by 7% [4][7] - The company experienced a 9.4% increase in foot traffic during the third quarter, indicating strong consumer interest [5][7] Market Positioning - CEO Jim Conroy highlighted a successful back-to-school season and strong sales trends, contributing to an operating margin of 11.6%, which exceeded expectations [5] - Ross Stores' performance stands in stark contrast to Target, which saw a 2.7% decline in store visits and its stock reaching a six-year low, as consumers perceive Target as a more "luxury" discount option compared to Ross [6]

Core Insights - Major U.S. equities indexes experienced gains, driven by comments from a Federal Reserve official suggesting a potential interest rate cut in December [1] Company Performance - Ross Stores (ROST) emerged as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, with shares increasing by 7% after surpassing earnings and revenue estimates, and raising its outlook due to strong customer demand [2] - Gap Inc. saw its shares rise by 8% following better-than-expected results and an optimistic guidance, attributed to robust demand across its brands [2] - Intuit (INTU) reported a 6% surge in shares, benefiting from strong quarterly results and increased demand for its artificial intelligence tools [3] - Veeva Systems (VEEV) experienced a decline of over 10% as it warned of reduced usage of its Vault CRM system by biopharmaceutical firms [4] Market Trends - Oil futures declined while gold prices increased, indicating a shift in commodity markets [4] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased to 4.08%, reflecting changes in investor sentiment [4] - The U.S. dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies, gaining against the euro but losing ground to the pound and yen [4]