Bill, I'm going to start with you and I think this is a question that a lot of people are going to start talking about pretty soon. This rise in commodity prices, what does that mean for inflation. As I just mentioned, Fed officials, they were worried about inflation during those Fed minutes as we continue to see commodities rally.Does that get transferred into higher prices for goods. The Fed's worried about inflation really stems from the service sector. Commodities contribute a lot to some of the goods p ...

Venture Global shares slumped 17% in premarket trading on Friday after BP won its arbitration case against the U.S. supplier over its failure to deliver liquefied natural gas under a long-term supply ... ...

Petroliam Nasional’s dividend payout to the Malaysian government is set to decline by 38% next year as an oil price slump weighs on the state-owned oil and gas company’s profitability https://t.co/S55HuZu7ev ...

Key Points Only 10 publicly traded U.S. companies have market caps of at least $1 trillion. Most stocks in this club are part of the high-flying artificial intelligence sector. Buffett and his team have been buying one stock that just joined the $1 trillion club without being an AI play. 10 stocks we like better than Berkshire Hathaway › When he retires as the chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) in just a few short months, Warren Buffett is likely to go down a ...

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Asia's Thematic Opportunities (3Q25) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Various sectors within the Asia Pacific region, focusing on emerging investment themes and opportunities identified by Morgan Stanley's research department. Core Themes and Investment Opportunities 1. **Future of Energy** - Global solar market expected to see gross margins for integrated module players turn positive by 2026-27 due to anti-involution reforms [3][3] - Japan's natural gas demand projected to grow at a CAGR of +0.8% from 2023-2031, with LNG imports from the US expected to rise by +14% [3][3] - Global new nuclear capacity anticipated to reach 587GW by 2050, with significant growth in Asia, particularly China and India [3][3] 2. **Tech Diffusion** - AI data centers projected to consume up to 1,068 billion liters of water annually by 2028, an 11x increase from 2024, driven by cooling and electricity generation needs [3][3] - AI NAND market expected to account for 34% of the global NAND market by 2029, adding an incremental US$29 billion to the total addressable market [3][3] 3. **Multipolar World** - Defense spending in Asia (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, India) projected to expand at a 12% CAGR to US$354 billion by 2029, matching China's defense budget [3][3] - Vehicles with Level 2+ all-scenario smart driving expected to reach 28% of unit sales by 2030, up from 8% in 2024, with a global ADAS/AD market size estimated at US$200 billion by 2030 [3][3] 4. **Capital Market Reform** - MSCI China's ROE expected to rise to 13.3% by 2030, supported by policy execution and structural reforms [3][3] - Singapore's equity market reforms could drive ROE to 14% from 12%, potentially doubling market cap by 2030 [3][3] 5. **Longevity** - Innovative drug sales projected to comprise 53% of China's pharmaceutical market by 2030, up from 29% in 2023, with a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [3][3] Additional Insights - **Water Consumption Risks**: AI's water consumption poses high local risks, especially in data center hubs facing water scarcity, highlighting the need for strategic investments in water-efficient technologies [27][27] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The report discusses the ongoing reorientation of supply chains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, and the shift towards onshoring production in the US for high-end products [56][56] - **Defense Industry Outlook**: The report emphasizes the expected super-cycle in Korea's defense industry, driven by rising global defense budgets and the need for modernization [64][64] Key Stock Implications - **Top Picks**: The report identifies several companies across various themes, including: - **Tech Diffusion**: KIOXIA, Samsung Electronics, and Hanwha Aerospace [12][12] - **Future of Energy**: Reliance Industries and Gulf Development PCL [12][12] - **Longevity**: Jiangsu Hengrui and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group [12][12] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from Morgan Stanley's thematic opportunities report, highlighting potential investment avenues and risks within the Asia Pacific region.

Mercuria Energy’s new metals division is up by around $300 million in trading profits so far this year, as the firm accelerates its return to the sector after years focused on oil and gas https://t.co/Lzx96OvVxA ...

Core Insights - Tesla has introduced cheaper versions of its Model Y and Model 3 to potentially boost sales and deliveries after the expiration of the federal EV tax credit at the end of September [1][2] - The new models are seen as a demand filler, but the core auto business is still facing significant headwinds, which may limit their impact on stock performance [3][4] Pricing and Market Dynamics - The cheaper models are priced around $39,000 to $37,000, which is a reduction compared to the previous tax credit of $7,500, but may not be sufficient to stimulate demand [6][8] - A 19% drop in unit deliveries is expected for the next quarter, following a record delivery of 497,000 units last quarter [8] Margin and Profitability - The introduction of cheaper models is likely to be dilutive to margins, as the auto segment is currently valued less despite generating the most revenue [5][6] - The energy business, while only 15% of revenue, contributes to 25% of profitability, indicating a potential area for growth amidst challenges in the auto sector [10][11] Competitive Landscape - Tesla's strategy appears to pivot towards capital efficiency and autonomy, with less focus on introducing new models to compete in the traditional auto market [4][5] - The company is navigating a tougher environment, as indicated by recent comments from competitors like BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche regarding their own guidance [12]

Report Overview - The report is a fixed income daily market update by CMBI, covering trading desk comments, macro news, and analysis of various bonds and new issues [1][2] Trading Desk Comments - On Monday, trading flows were light due to holidays in mainland China, Taiwan, and Korea [2] - Asian institutions sold French names like BNP, ACAFP, and SOCGEN, as well as Japanese and Yankee AT1s and insurance hybrids [2] - In Greater China, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 2bps, and EHICAR 26 - 27s were unchanged to 1.1pts higher [2] - In properties, FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 14.7pts after the coupon deferral notice deadline passed [2] - NWDEVL Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt higher, and NWDEVL 27 - 31s were 0.2pt lower to 0.3pt higher [2] - HYSAN 4.85 Perp was up 0.3pt, and VNKRLE 27 - 29s lowered 0.2 - 0.4pt [2] - FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26/LNGFOR 27 - 32s were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher [2] - In Southeast Asia, GARUDA 31s rose 0.9pt, and VLLPM were down 0.2 - 1.0pt [2] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFV space, TAIANH 6.9 07/16/28 and FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 leaked 0.9 - 1.7pts [2] - This morning, flows remained light with mainland China still on holiday [3] - GARUDA 31s rose 3.1 - 3.9pts, and LASUDE 26 was 2.9pts higher [3] - CHGDNU 48/EHICAR 26 were 0.9 - 2.1pts lower [3] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.1 - 0.3pt lower [3] - IHFLIN 27 - 28 were 0.5 - 0.6pt lower after Moody's placed Sammaan Capital's B2 rating on review for upgrade [3] Top Performers and Underperformers | Security | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | FAEACO 12.814 PERP | 56.7 | 14.7 | | HCELEC 4.65 12/29/26 | 67.9 | 1.4 | | EHICAR 7 09/21/26 | 81.3 | 1.1 | | GARUDA 6 1/2 12/28/31 | 88.8 | 0.9 | | CFAMCI 5 1/2 04/27/47 | 98.0 | 0.8 | | CCAMCL 4 3/4 12/04/37 | 93.3 | -1.7 | | TAIANH 6.9 07/16/28 | 94.3 | -1.7 | | VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 | 49.5 | -1.0 | | FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 | 99.3 | -0.9 | | TENCNT 3.68 04/22/41 | 85.1 | -0.9 | [4] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.38%), Dow (-0.20%), and Nasdaq (-0.67%) were lower [6] - The release of US Aug'25 trade balance was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [6] - 2/5yr UST yield was lower, while 10/30yr UST yield was higher on Tuesday [6] - 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.57%/3.71%/4.14%/4.73% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources (VRL) priced USD500mn VEDLN 9.125 10/15/32 with an orderbook of over USD1.6bn [7] - Net proceeds are for prepaying the 18% private credit facility due Apr'26 [7] - Over 14 months, VRL has raised USD3.6bn in USD bonds, smoothing its maturity profile and lowering funding costs [7] - Analysts prefer VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 for a better risk - adjusted profile [7] - The new VEDLN 32s trade in line with VEDLN 31s at 9.0% YTW [7] - VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 trades at 102.2 with 8.8% YTW, offering 46bps pickup over NICAU 9 09/30/30 [7] VRL's Outstanding USD Bonds | Security name | ISIN | Amt o/s (USD mn) | Ask px | YTW | Issue rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VEDLN 10.25 06/03/28 | USG9T27HAH76 | 300 | 103.7 | 7.8% | -/B/B+ | | VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 | USG9T27HAG93 | 1,200 | 105.4 | 8.7% | -/B/- | | VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 | USG9T27HAL88 | 550 | 102.2 | 8.8% | B2/B/- | | VEDLN 11.25 12/03/31 | USG9T27HAJ33 | 500 | 107.7 | 9.0% | -/B/B+ | | VEDLN 9.125 10/15/32 | USG9T27HAN45 | 500 | 100.3 | 9.0% | B2/-/B+ | | VEDLN 9.85 04/24/33 | USG9T27HAK06 | 550 | 102.5 | 9.1% | B2/B/- | [8] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced - Muthoot Finance (tap) issued 150mn USD, 5 - year bonds with a coupon of 101.75 and an issue rating of Ba1/BB+/- [11] Pipeline - There are no offshore Asia new issues in the pipeline today [12] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances are suspended during the National Day Holiday [19] - Macau logged over 1mn visitors in the first 7 days of Oct'25 Golden Week [19] - Adani Green inked a USD250mn loan from four global banks for refinancing [19] - Garuda Indonesia asked for a USD600 - 800mn injection from Danantara to maintain 51 aircraft [19] - GLP received interest from Middle East institutions for a strategic investment of about USD1bn [19] - LG Electronics India's USD1.3bn IPO sold out on the first day [19] - Canara Robeco AMC, ORIX's Indian JV, plans an IPO of INR13.3bn (about USD149.4mn) [19] - Sinopec is adding at least 169mn barrels of oil reserves [19] - San Miguel was fined for a'misstatement' in its 1H25 earnings report [19]

Commodity Markets - Cocoa prices have plummeted to a 20-month low, signaling the end of a record rally and marking a significant shift in commodity markets [2][9] - Gold surged by 1%, reaching $4,021.22 per ounce, indicating strong investor demand for safe-haven assets amidst market uncertainties [3][9] Artificial Intelligence Risks - Companies are grappling with the challenge of assessing the financial risks posed by Artificial Intelligence (AI), even as OpenAI has secured up to $300 million in AI risk coverage [4][9] Economic Concerns in the UK - Big bond investors are urging UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to establish a larger fiscal buffer, highlighting concerns over the nation's economic resilience [5][9] Analyst Target Price Adjustments - Analyst target price adjustments were notable for several major companies, including Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Shell (SHEL) seeing increases, while Lennox International (LII) and McCormick & Co. (MKC) faced reductions [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - Solid Power (NASDAQ: SLDP) is identified as a compelling investment opportunity, with the stock having gained significantly since early July [1]. Company Overview - Solid Power operates in the battery technology sector, focusing on solid-state batteries, which are considered a key innovation for electric vehicles and energy storage solutions [1]. Investment Rationale - The stock has shown a positive performance, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [1]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes thorough research and a long-term perspective, which aligns with the company's innovative approach in a rapidly evolving industry [1]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for advanced battery technologies, particularly in the electric vehicle market [1].