October 10, 2025 11:04 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America A Fond Farewell to 10-Year Treasury Yields Above 4.00% The US government shutdown and escalation in trade tensions present obvious challenges to the glass-half-full view of most investors. The longer the shutdown lasts and higher trade policy uncertainty climbs, the more the glass will look half-empty. Buy US Treasuries before more 4-handles disappear. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focused on the Chinese economy and its various dynamics, including growth rates, export performance, and geopolitical factors affecting trade and investment. Key Topics and Insights 1. Slowing Growth and Policy Stimulus - Major activity indicators such as industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment showed notable year-over-year growth deceleration in July and August [4][5] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for additional policy easing due to signs of economic weakening, although policymakers appear relatively unconcerned as growth remains above 5% year-over-year [4][5] 2. Chinese Export Slowdown - There is a divergence in investor opinions regarding the outlook for Chinese exports, with some believing a slowdown is delayed while others expect it to persist despite increased US tariffs [6] - The forecast for China's current account surplus is around 3.5% of GDP for 2025 and 2026, which is significantly higher than consensus expectations [6] 3. Anti-involution and Deflation - The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a medium-term strategy to combat deflation and improve corporate profitability, though its effects may take time to materialize [7][9] - The government aims to address issues such as overcapacity and excessive price competition, which hinder innovation and high-quality growth [9] 4. Disconnect Between Real Economy and Equity Market - There is a notable disconnect between weak domestic demand and strong equity market performance, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [10] - Despite concerns, many investors remain positive on Chinese equities, viewing them favorably compared to other investment options [10][11] 5. Focus on Consumption in the 15th Five Year Plan - Investors are concerned about China's reliance on exports and the low share of household consumption in GDP, fearing potential economic challenges similar to those faced by Japan in the 1990s [12][14] - There is cautious optimism regarding a policy shift towards boosting consumption, although the government is still focused on technological innovation and high-tech manufacturing [15] 6. US-China Relations and Geopolitics - Discussions highlighted the importance of US-China relations, with clients expressing interest in potential trade agreements and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Taiwan [16] - The sentiment among investors is shifting towards a multipolar world, with expectations of a weaker Dollar and stronger RMB in the long term [16] Additional Important Insights - The implementation of previously announced policies, such as the RMB 500 billion financing instrument for infrastructure projects, is expected, but new easing measures are unlikely in the short term [5] - The potential for significant capital flows from households into the equity market could drive market performance higher in the coming quarters [11] This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy and its investment landscape.

Core Insights - Jefferies Financial Group, Inc. has addressed recent inaccuracies and conflated allegations regarding its involvement with First Brands, emphasizing the importance of clear communication with clients and stakeholders [1] Group 1 - The company has released a letter from CEO Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman to clarify its position amidst the surrounding circumstances related to First Brands [1] - The communication aims to rectify misinformation that has been circulating in articles and snippets mentioning Jefferies [1]

SHANGHAI, CHINA - AUGUST 14, 2025 - Tourists are visiting the Bund in Shanghai, China on August 14, 2025.Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday after China and the U.S. tightened trade restrictions and traded fresh accusations, renewing tensions between the world's two largest economies.China on Sunday said "we are not afraid of" a trade war with the United States after President Donald Trump vowed to impose punishing new retaliatory tariffs on Chinese imports.A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce accus ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and its trade finance arm Point Bonita Capital are under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws related to their significant exposure to First Brands Group, which recently declared bankruptcy [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jefferies is an investment banking and capital markets firm, while Point Bonita Capital serves as its trade finance division [2]. - Both firms were closely associated with First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy in September 2025 [2]. Group 2: Financial Exposure - On October 8, 2025, Jefferies disclosed that it and Point Bonita had approximately $715 million in exposure to First Brands' receivables, accounting for about 25% of Point Bonita's trade finance portfolio [3]. - Following this announcement, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66, or approximately 8%, from $59.10 on October 7, 2025, to $54.44 on October 8, 2025 [3]. Group 3: Legal Investigation - Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP is investigating whether Jefferies and/or Point Bonita made materially false and misleading statements to investors regarding their exposure to First Brands [4].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is currently under investigation for potential fraud, providing an opportunity for investors to join the legal proceedings with the Schall Law Firm [1] Company Summary - The investigation pertains to allegations of fraud involving Jefferies Financial Group Inc., which may impact investor confidence and the company's reputation [1] - Investors are being encouraged to participate in the investigation, indicating potential legal ramifications for the company [1] Industry Summary - The financial services industry may face increased scrutiny and regulatory challenges as a result of this investigation, potentially affecting other firms within the sector [1]

Goldman Sachs's securities cohead called Wall Street's rally "fairly high-quality." Ashok Varadhan said there's been "very little volatility" since markets recovered from "Liberation Day." He added that US equities were the best place to invest and said traders should look for convexity. The cohead of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs has called the stock market bull run "fairly high-quality," and said that US equities remain the best place to invest. Ashok Varadhan's words come as keen ...

ETFs and central banks are leading the gold rally, while a squeeze in the silver market is sending it even higher. Samantha Dart, Co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, joins Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Markets" to discuss. ...

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley will release 3Q25 earnings on Oct. 15, before market open.Trading and investment banking strengths are expected to lift quarterly revenues.Analysts project a 5.6% y/y rise in revenues and a 10.1% jump in EPS.Morgan Stanley (MS) is set to announce third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 15 before the opening bell. As always, the company’s performance and the subsequent management conference call are expected to grab attention from analysts and investors.Morgan Stanley’s second-quarte ...

Core Insights - Rishi Sunak has taken on senior advisory roles at Microsoft and Anthropic, raising concerns about potential unfair advantages due to his access to privileged information [1][2] - Sunak has a history with Microsoft, including a £2.5 billion deal announced in 2023 for investment in data centers and training in the U.K. [1] - Sunak has committed to avoiding advising on U.K. policy matters and will focus on macro-economic and geopolitical trends [2] Company and Industry Summary - The Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (Acoba) expressed concerns regarding Sunak's appointments, particularly in the context of ongoing debates about AI regulation [2] - Sunak also serves as a senior advisor to Goldman Sachs and has connections with other firms like Bain Capital and Makena Capital [3] - The trend of former politicians taking roles in tech companies is noted, with examples including Nick Clegg at Meta and Liam Booth-Smith at Anthropic [3][6]