Job seekers speak with recruiters during the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates."My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen returns of 38% and 57% respectively from their April lows to recent peaks in October, driven by lower tariff expectations, increased AI spending, and optimism regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - Since the market bottomed on April 9, stock market pullbacks have led to a "buy the dip" mentality among risk-tolerant investors, despite recent declines of approximately 3.4% and 4.4% in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively over the past five trading days [4][12] Economic Indicators - A slowdown in the jobs market is evident, with layoffs totaling about 1.1 million workers year-to-date, a 65% increase from the previous year, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from a low of 3.4% in 2023 [7][11] - The Consumer Price Index rose to 3% in September from 2.3% in April, indicating inflationary pressures despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [10] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate to manage inflation and unemployment complicates its monetary policy, leading to concerns that it may fall behind in addressing economic conditions [5][6] - The Fed has recently cut its benchmark Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point in September and October, responding to worsening job market conditions [10] Investor Sentiment - Fund managers report the lowest cash levels on the sidelines at 3.7%, indicating high optimism, but historical trends suggest that such low cash levels often precede stock declines [13][14] - John Waldron of Goldman Sachs views the current market pullback as healthy, suggesting that some froth needs to be removed from the market [12][16] Technology Sector - The AI sector and the "Magnificent 7" technology stocks have seen significant valuation increases reminiscent of past market bubbles, raising concerns about potential corrections [15]

Key Takeaways Goldman is capturing an outsized share of 2025 M&A as global dealmaking accelerates.Mega-deals and revived cross-border activity are driving Goldman's advisory dominance. Rising advisory fees and regional strength highlight Goldman's momentum in investment banking.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is on track for a historic year in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), potentially not seen since the early 2000s, as deal-making accelerates. GS has continued to maintain its dominant position in advis ...

Group 1 - Yardeni Research expects the S&P 500 to reach a new record high by the end of 2025, maintaining a year-end target of 7,000, which represents a 5.7% increase from its recent close of 6,617 [1] - The firm has reduced the probability of a "melt-up" scenario from 25% to 15% and increased the odds of a bearish scenario to 30%, citing concerns over an AI-led market correction and weak consumer sentiment [2] - Despite current market challenges, Yardeni Research believes fears of an "AI bubble" may be exaggerated, similar to past recession fears that did not materialize, and notes that extreme market fear often indicates potential rebounds [3] Group 2 - Wall Street analysts are generally optimistic about the S&P 500 for 2025, with Citigroup raising its target to 6,600 and Deutsche Bank lifting its target to 7,000, both citing strong corporate earnings and fiscal stimulus [5] - Goldman Sachs projects a 7% earnings growth for the S&P 500, while Edward Jones anticipates 11% growth but warns of potential volatility due to high valuations at 23x forward P/E [6] - Key factors influencing the index include performance from mega-cap technology, AI productivity gains, and favorable tax and spending policies, although risks such as elevated valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties persist [6]

18 November 2025 | 2:22PM EST Economics Research Global Market Views: Trading 2025, Thinking 2026 1. Peering through data fog into 2026. The US government shutdown has amplified risks around the upcoming data releases, particularly around the labour market. That is still the main risk to an otherwise benign global cyclical picture. If the outturns there are only modestly weak rather than tripping into recessionary fears, the outlook beyond that into 2026 looks more reassuring. Government re-opening, recedin ...

Morgan Stanley has sold $104 million in complex structured notes tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), according to data from Structured Products Intelligence, part of WSD. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds BTC directly and allows investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency through a traditional, regulated market vehicle. This marks one of Wall Street’s strongest pushes yet to channel Bitcoin (BTC) exposure into a controlled, ...

Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says investors are getting more selective and should take a more active approach to fixed-income risk. He speaks with Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld on "The Close." ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The core investment strategy suggested is to diversify portfolios by looking outside the US for better returns, particularly in small-cap growth stocks and real estate [1][2][8] - Small-cap growth strategies are highlighted for their potential to capture more upside, despite also having more downside risk, making them appealing in the current market environment [4][5] - The current intra-stock correlations in the small-cap sector are at historic lows, indicating significant opportunities for alpha generation [5] Group 2: Market Performance - Emerging markets and Europe have outperformed the US this year, with a specific focus on India, which has seen a shift from underweight to overweight by analysts due to improving conditions [9][11] - While broad emerging markets have performed well, India's performance has been relatively muted, attributed to trade tensions and other headwinds, but recent government reforms are expected to enhance its attractiveness [10][12] - India's market multiple has decreased from 25 to 23, and its premium over other emerging markets has shifted, indicating a potential for recovery and growth [11]

A former investment banker was charged with helping to hatch a global insider-trading ring from the Paris restaurant he owned https://t.co/RZW7uadMfQ ...

Core Insights - Investment bankers, particularly at Goldman Sachs, are anticipating a significant increase in M&A activity, marking their largest market share in nearly 25 years [2][5]. M&A Market Overview - M&A activity has shown resilience, with a 10% year-over-year increase in global deal value, rising from $1.7 trillion in 2024 to $1.9 trillion in 2025 [3]. - North America accounted for the majority of this activity, with $1.2 trillion in deals, representing 62% of global M&A [3]. Megadeals and Goldman Sachs' Performance - The number of megadeals (over $10 billion) has increased, with 27 deals reported through September 30, compared to 21 in the same period last year [4]. - Goldman Sachs advised on the record $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts, earning a $110 million fee, which enhances its competitive positioning [4]. Financial Performance of Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs shares have risen 35% this year, reaching a record high closing price of $838.97 [5]. - The firm reported a 42% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees, totaling $2.6 billion in Q3, exceeding analysts' expectations [5]. - Goldman advised on $1 trillion in announced M&A deals in 2025, which is $220 billion more than its closest competitor [5]. Market Share Insights - Goldman Sachs has advised on 34% of global mergers by deal value in 2025, up from 28% in 2024, marking the highest share since 2015 [7]. - The firm is on track to earn its largest share of the deals market since 2001, with a fee market share of 10.7%, the best since 2022 [7].