Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. employment data and its implications for market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the impact on precious metals prices [2][3][25]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic indicators, including employment data, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings, have shown improvement, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][25]. - The July non-farm payrolls report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, with prior months' figures also revised downwards, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. employment data [2][25]. Market Sentiment - The market has begun to recognize the fragility of the U.S. employment situation, likening it to "the emperor's new clothes," which may lead to increased calls for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][26]. - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, which may be a temporary technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend [3][26]. Precious Metals Market - The article highlights the recent changes in managed positions for precious metals in the U.S. futures market, indicating a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum saw a slight increase [5][9]. - As of July 29, net long positions for gold fell by 16.4% to 444 tons, marking the lowest level in three weeks, while silver's net long positions decreased by 3.6% to 6,786 tons [5][9]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remains strong, with silver experiencing a more volatile market response compared to gold [9][12]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, with significant probabilities assigned to rate cuts in September, October, and December [3][25][24]. - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio as a forward-looking indicator for gold prices, suggesting that if gold prices rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [19][26]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures market sentiment, has shown a rebound, indicating heightened risk awareness among investors [21][23].

Core Insights - Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, with sales estimated at $467.7 million, reflecting a 56.4% year-over-year growth [1][5] - The consensus estimate for WPM's earnings is 58 cents per share, indicating a 75.8% increase compared to the previous year [1][5] - Earnings estimates have risen by 16% over the past 60 days [1] Financial Performance - WPM's earnings have exceeded consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.9% [3] - The projected total attributable production for WPM in Q2 2025 is 148,461 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), marking a 2.6% year-over-year increase [8] - Gold production is expected to be 86,697 ounces, a 3.8% increase year-over-year, with gold sales projected at $281 million, indicating a 54% year-over-year rise [10][11] Production Insights - The company anticipates an attributable production of 600,000-670,000 GEOs for 2025, representing a 10% year-over-year increase [7] - Silver production is projected at 5.11 million ounces, a 1.3% increase year-over-year, with silver sales expected to reach $151 million, a 35.8% year-over-year rise [12][13] - Attributable production of palladium is expected to decline by 45.4% year-over-year, while cobalt production is projected to increase by 43.8% [14] Market Performance - WPM's stock has increased by 75.9% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 10.4% [16]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 客 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/8/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2510 | AG2510 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | 2025/8/1 | 3291.44 | 36. 61 | 3342. 90 | 36. 67 | 770. 72 | 8918. 00 | 766. 88 | 8893.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2025/7/31 | 3299. ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump administration's exemption of refined copper tariffs eases the trading of potential import tariffs on platinum group metals in the US, leading to a short - term downward pressure on platinum and palladium prices. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see strategy [3][9] - NYMEX platinum and palladium prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with NYMEX platinum's price potentially testing the support level of $1,148.9 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's price likely to trade in the range of $1,193 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's closing price of the active contract dropped 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's dropped 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce. The New York platinum futures premium also declined from a high of $57.1 per ounce on July 17 to $14.9 per ounce on August 1 [3][9] - **Volume and Open Interest**: NYMEX platinum's five - day average trading volume rose 44.23%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 10.46%. NYMEX palladium's five - day average trading volume rose 32.66%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 12.19% [9] - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.8 tons on August 1, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.4 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.26% to 75.2 tons, and palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.00% to 13.22 tons [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's main contract price fell 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and its total open interest fell 2,523 lots to 88,000 lots. Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum price fell 8.05% to 309.9 yuan per gram [18][21] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's main contract price fell 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce, and its total open interest decreased slightly by 402 lots to 20,400 lots [24] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of July 29, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long positions decreased by 501 lots to 16,700 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short positions were 2,039 lots [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: CME platinum inventory increased 1.6 tons to 16.8 tons this week, and platinum ETF total holdings decreased to 75.2 tons [50][57] - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory increased by 382.4 kilograms to 2,403 kilograms, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.22 tons [53][62] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [68][71] - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May, while palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX platinum's 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [92][93] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX palladium's 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [99][101] - **London Market Spot - NYMEX Spread**: Data on the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price are presented [106][107]

Core Insights - International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, with sales expected to decline by 5.4% year-over-year to $2.73 billion and earnings estimated at $1.11 per share, reflecting a 4.3% decrease from the previous year [1][5][6] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IFF's sales is $2.73 billion, indicating a 5.4% dip from the year-ago figure [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.11, which has increased by 0.9% over the past 60 days [1] - IFF has a history of earnings surprises, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 11.1% [3][4] Segment Performance - The Taste segment is projected to see a sales increase of 8.8% year-over-year to $663 million, with adjusted operating EBITDA expected to rise by 1.5% [10] - The Food Ingredients segment is anticipated to decline by 2.3% year-over-year to $827 million, with adjusted operating EBITDA rising by 0.9% [10] - The Scent segment's sales are expected to increase by 7.6% year-over-year to $649 million, although operating EBITDA is projected to decrease by 5.9% [11] - The Health & Biosciences segment is forecasted to grow by 21.3% year-over-year to $581 million, with operating EBITDA expected to increase by 1% [12] Cost and Margin Considerations - IFF has been facing high raw material costs and additional expenses related to labor, shipping, and cleaning, which are likely to impact margins despite cost-cutting efforts [8] - The company has been experiencing volume growth across its businesses, which is expected to positively influence its sales performance [7]

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statements on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, particularly in September, which has led to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's comments have dampened hopes for a rate cut in September, influencing market sentiment [1][2]. - The anticipation of no immediate rate cuts may lead to a stronger dollar, further affecting commodity prices [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks, gold prices have experienced a notable decline, reflecting investor sentiment shifting away from gold as a safe haven [1][2]. - The net weight of gold traded has shown a decrease, indicating reduced demand in the market [1][2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. precious metals futures market, highlighting a shift towards net long positions in gold and silver while palladium remains in a prolonged net short position [1][2][8]. Group 1: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - As of last Tuesday, net long positions in U.S. precious metals futures have increased due to a reduction in short positions, with gold reaching a net long of 531 tons, the highest in 16 weeks, and silver at 7,039 tons, the highest in three weeks [2][7]. - The gold fund's long positions increased by 15% week-on-week, while short positions decreased by 3%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [7]. - The palladium fund remains in a net short position of 8 tons, marking the highest level of net short positions in 38 weeks, and has been in a net short position for 134 consecutive weeks [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent improvements in U.S. economic indicators, such as employment data and consumer confidence, have led to a rise in risk appetite among investors, favoring investments in silver, platinum, and digital currencies [2][27]. - The market currently estimates a 34.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on September 17, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24][27]. - The article notes that inflation data is beginning to rise, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [27][30]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The gold price has accumulated a 30.7% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 36.0% during the same period [7][11]. - The article highlights a significant divergence in performance between gold and silver, with the gold-to-silver ratio indicating market sentiment, currently at 87.465, reflecting a high level of risk aversion [22][23]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - CME platinum and palladium inventories are continuously increasing, and the tightness of overseas platinum spot has eased, but tariff transactions will still support platinum prices. The prices of platinum group metals showed weakness this week. It is expected that the prices of platinum group metals will show a weak shock pattern at high levels in the short term, and platinum prices will perform better than palladium prices [9]. - The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2024, indicating a certain contraction expectation in the mine - end supply of platinum this year. The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons [68][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract fell 1.55% to $1,433.6 per ounce, and the trading volume (five - day average) decreased 12.18%. The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract fell 2.06% to $1,260 per ounce, and the trading volume (five - day average) decreased 27.76% [9]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased significantly from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.04 tons on July 25, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.01 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.22% to 75.4 tons, and palladium ETF holdings increased 0.84% to 13.23 tons [9][50][53]. - **Technical Analysis**: NYMEX platinum's weekly - level price is relatively strong, with support at $1,376 per ounce. NYMEX palladium is expected to consolidate in the range of $1,206 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, the price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 1.55% to $1,433.6 per ounce, and the total position decreased slightly by 1,017 lots to 90,701 lots. The price of the NYMEX palladium main contract fell 2.06% to $1,260 per ounce, and the total position was 20,819 lots. The price of Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum fell 2.66% to 332.9 yuan per gram [21][24][27]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest report on July 22, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 2,925 lots to 17,158 lots, and the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 2,617 lots [36][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of July 25, CME platinum inventory increased by 7.4 tons to 16.04 tons, and platinum ETF total holdings were 75.4 tons [50][57]. - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory is currently 2,015 kg, a significant increase of 519.8 kg from last week, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.23 tons [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease [68][71]. - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Relevant data charts are provided to show the price differences between different contract months of NYMEX platinum [93][94]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Relevant data charts are provided to show the price differences between different contract months of NYMEX palladium [101][106]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spreads**: Charts show the price differences between London spot platinum/palladium prices and NYMEX platinum/palladium prices [108].