Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Real Estate Sector - **Key Focus**: Economic growth, consumption trends, property market downturn, and policy responses Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Projections**: Expected to be 4.7% in 2025, with a gradual recovery from the property downturn and ongoing tariff impacts [50][51] - **Consumption Trends**: Weak recovery in consumption post-COVID, with levels significantly below pre-COVID growth trends. Key factors affecting consumption include income growth, consumer confidence, and excess savings of RMB 6.6 trillion accumulated from 2020 to 2024 [51] - **Property Market**: The property downturn is described as the sharpest in history, with sales declining significantly in Q2-Q3 2024 but showing some improvement in Q4. However, sales have slid again since Q2 2025 [52] - **Investment Trends**: Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to remain strong at 8-10% in 2025, while manufacturing capital expenditure is projected to moderate to 6-7% [51] - **Export Dynamics**: Exports are anticipated to weaken in 2025-2026 due to higher US tariffs, despite a robust performance in 2024 driven by resilient US growth and a global tech cycle [50][51] Policy Measures and Economic Stimulus - **Monetary Policy Easing**: Recent measures include cuts to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates to stimulate the economy. Specific cuts include a 50 basis point RRR cut in September 2024 and May 2025, and a reduction in the 7-day REPO rate [18] - **Fiscal Policy Expansion**: The government plans to increase local debt quotas and fiscal deficits to support economic recovery, with a projected fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP in 2025 [18][19] - **Support for Property Sector**: Policy measures include reducing down payment requirements for second homes and cutting existing mortgage rates to stimulate the property market [18] - **Consumption Boost Initiatives**: The government prioritizes boosting consumption, with trade-in subsidies doubled to RMB 300 billion and increased social spending on pensions and healthcare [18][19] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impacts**: The ongoing trade war has resulted in significant tariff hikes, with 57% of Chinese goods subject to 20%+ tariffs as of 2025. This has led to a decline in China's market share in the US, although it remains stable globally [21][24][36] - **Local Government Financing**: Local governments face fiscal challenges, and there is a focus on inventory destocking in the property sector, although progress has been limited [51] - **Investment in High-Quality Sectors**: There is a shift towards investment in high-quality sectors and equipment, reflecting a broader trend in the manufacturing landscape [51] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges faced, and the policy measures being implemented to foster recovery and growth.

Financial Performance - Country Garden's net loss widened sharply in the first half of this year [1] Industry Trends - The report highlights the entrenched property woes in China [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the daily fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issues, and macro - economic news. It also provides in - depth analysis of specific companies such as CNMDHL and Meituan [2][3][6]. - For CNMDHL, it is considered a yield pick - up play over CHMEDA, taking into account its relationship with Mengniu and trading liquidity [7]. - Regarding Meituan, although facing near - term profitability pressure due to intensified competition, its overall credit profile remains robust, and the analyst maintains a buy rating on some of its bonds [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the new HOKKEL 30 tightened 3 - 4bps, while other IG new issues like OCBCSP 4.55 35s/BOCAVI 31/JERA 4.544 30 widened 1 - 2bps or were unchanged. MEITUAs widened 3 - 5bps due to EBITDA decline in 1H25, and other Chinese TMT names had minor changes. Some bonds like LIFUNG 5 ¼ PERP rose due to positive EBITDA news, while VNKRLE 27 - 29s lowered [2]. - This morning, the new CNH GUAMET 2.15 28 was 0.3pt lower, the new HOKKEL 30 tightened 1bp, and some IG new issues were unchanged. JP long - end insurance bonds and HYSAN 7.2 Perp rose [3]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P (+0.32%), Dow (+0.16%), and Nasdaq (+0.53%) were higher. US 2Q25 GDP was +3.3% qoq, higher than the market expectation of +3.0%. The latest initial jobless claims were +229k, lower than the market expectation of +231k. 2yr UST yield was higher while 10/30yr UST yield was lower [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - **CNMDHL**: CNMDHL 4 ⅞ 07/10/30 is trading at a YTM of 4.9% and 61bps over CHMEDA 2 ½ 06/17/30. It has lagged the recent rally in the 5 - year Asia USD bucket by 20 - 30bps. It is considered a yield pick - up play over CHMEDA [7]. - **MEITUA**: Competition in the mainland China food delivery market is heating up, and margin squeeze will continue in 3Q25. Despite the weak operating performance, Meituan's credit story remains solid with a net cash position of RMB120.0bn. The analyst maintains a buy on MEITUA 3.05 10/28/30 and MEITUA 0 04/27/28 (CB) [9]. Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [21][22]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 91 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB65bn. Month - to - date, 2,140 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,805bn, representing an 8% yoy decrease [23]. Company - Specific News - ACEN decided to inject USD76mn into subsidiaries and a solar project and spend PHP34.5bn (cUSD602.6mn) to develop Quezon wind park [28]. - GLP secures up to USD1.5bn investment from ADIA to accelerate growth [28]. - Li & Fung 1H25 EBITDA rises 4% yoy to USD75mn [28]. - Mongolian Mining 1H25 adjusted EBITDA falls 65.2% yoy to USD94.1mn [28]. - Orix to issue unsecured five - year bonds for JPY20bn (cUSD135mn) [28]. - Shui On Land 1H25 profit before tax down 95.4% yoy to RMB13mn (cUSD1.8mn) [28]. - SJM Holdings 1H25 adjusted EBITDA drops 5% yoy to HKD1.7bn (cUSD212mn) and plans to buy part of Hotel Lisboa for HKD529m (cUSD68mn) [28]. - SK Telecom was slapped with a KRW134.8bn (cUSD97mn) penalty following a personal data breach [28]. - Fitch downgraded China Vanke and Vanke Hong Kong to CCC - from CCC +, reflecting further weakening in liquidity [28]. - Yuzhou Group offshore debt revamp to become effective on 29 Aug'25 [28].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for FY '25 decreased by 10.5% to $155.4 million compared to $173.6 million in FY '24 [3][19] - EBITDA for FY '25 was $21.3 million, a decrease of $6.6 million from FY '24 [3][19] - Net profit after tax was $10.3 million, a 34.4% decrease from $15.7 million in FY '24 [4][21] - Cash holdings as of June 30 were $20.3 million [4][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Settled units decreased to 266 in FY '25 from 345 in FY '24 [3][19] - Revenue from residential development was $130.3 million, with an EBITDA of $21.9 million [4] - Commercial revenue increased significantly to $24.7 million in FY '25 from $11 million in FY '24, attributed to Airborne's full year of trading [13][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The property market in New Zealand remains subdued, particularly in Auckland, with ongoing economic challenges [2][28] - Unemployment continues to rise, and net migration is at its lowest level in ten years [28] - The Queenstown Lakes District is outperforming the rest of the country in housing sales [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on its presale strategy and maintaining financial discipline amid market challenges [3][28] - Winton is prioritizing the Sunfield project and South Island operations, where the market remains buoyant [28][29] - The company is cautious about committing further capital until there is a clearer positive outlook in the market [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the subdued property market and economic struggles but sees some positive signs, such as a declining official cash rate and increased competition among suppliers [2][28] - The company plans to operate with discipline and has appropriately resourced its team to reflect the current project pipeline [28][29] - Management expresses confidence in the team's ability to excel through the tough property cycle [29] Other Important Information - The company has a land bank yield of approximately 5,750 units, including 877 retirement units [4] - Winton's Airborne Screen Hub and Sunfield project have been accepted into the Fast Track process under the Fast Track Approvals Act of 2024 [8][9] - A confidential commercial settlement was reached with Kianga Ora regarding anticompetitive conduct allegations [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What kind of market evidence is needed for the next stage of Northbrook Wind Headquarters developments to commence? - Management is looking for clear evidence of contraction in build costs and is monitoring this closely [34] Question: Would the company consider residential sales at the high end of the market? - Management notes that many buyers in this demographic do not have the requirement to sell their current place, which is not a significant driver [36] Question: What is the energy need to see progress at Cracker Bay? - Management indicates that it is mainly a build cost story [37] Question: How has visitation and spend per visitor at Airborne tracked? - Visitation numbers are in line with expectations, and spend per visitor continues to improve [38][39] Question: Is there an update on Northbrook, Avon, Loop, and Christchurch? - Management confirms that consents are in place and plans to sell excess land before proceeding with the village development [43]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Panda Bond Market**: The Panda bond market, which consists of CNY-denominated bonds issued in Mainland China by foreign issuers, has seen significant growth since 2016, driven by regulatory changes and increased demand for diversified funding channels [4][11][20]. Core Insights - **Issuance Trends**: - Panda bond issuance rebounded significantly in recent years, with CNY 117 billion issued in 2025 alone, following CNY 154 billion in 2023 and CNY 195 billion in 2024 [5][13]. - The total outstanding amount of Panda bonds is estimated at CNY 371 billion, with 52% from issuers whose market of risk is Mainland China [19][22]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The growth of the Panda bond market is attributed to two major trends: RMB Internationalization and De-Dollarization, which are expected to continue driving demand [20]. - The market is characterized by a preference for shorter-dated bonds, with 62% of outstanding bonds having a tenor between 1 to 3 years [22]. - **Regulatory Support**: - Recent regulatory changes, including streamlined issuance processes and clarification on the remittance of bond proceeds, have facilitated the growth of the Panda bond market [13][20]. Investment Preferences - **Asia Credit Market**: - The Asia high-yield (HY) credit spreads have widened moderately, while investment-grade (IG) spreads remain stable. A defensive investment stance is recommended, favoring Asia IG over HY [6][9]. - Specific preferences include front-end BBB rated bonds and 7-10 year A rated bonds, particularly in sectors like HK Property and bank capital securities [8]. - **China's Economic Outlook**: - The Chinese economy faces challenges such as a property market slump and deflation, but the current account surplus is expected to average around 3.5% of GDP for 2025 and 2026, indicating resilience [7]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The search for yield remains strong among investors, and unless there is a significant downturn in US growth, spreads are likely to remain range-bound [6][9]. - The Panda bond market is seen as complementary to the Dim Sum bond market, catering to different investor bases [20]. - **Future Projections**: - The Asia G3 currency bond issuance is forecasted to reach USD 250 billion by the end of 2025, indicating a robust outlook for the region's credit markets [32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the Panda bond market's growth, investment preferences in Asia's credit market, and the broader economic context affecting these trends.

Summary of China Vanke Company Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Vanke Company Ltd. - **Industry**: China Property - **Stock Rating**: Underweight [5][66] - **Current Price**: Rmb6.56 (as of August 22, 2025) [5][66] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb74,444 million [5] Key Financial Results - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb105,323 million, a decline of 26% year-over-year from Rmb142,779 million in 1H24 [9] - **Core Net Profit**: Reported at Rmb(11,591) million, a 52% increase in losses compared to Rmb(7,613) million in 1H24 [9] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 9.0% from 7.3% year-over-year [9] - **Net Gearing Ratio**: Increased to 86% from 62% year-over-year [9] - **Cash Coverage**: Decreased to 0.4x [8] Financial Challenges - **Core Losses**: Widened to Rmb11.6 billion, attributed to a significant revenue decline and increased asset impairment [8] - **Development Profit Margin**: Dropped to 8.1%, indicating pressure on margins [8] - **Unbooked Sales**: Decreased to Rmb184 billion, a 17% decline compared to the end of 2024, suggesting revenue pressure for 2025-26 [8] Market Outlook - **Weak Outlook**: The company is expected to face continued losses due to declining property sales, margin pressures, and asset impairments [3] - **Debt Repayment**: While the company may manage public debt repayments with assistance from SZ Metro, the medium-term outlook remains cautious [3] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: Rmb5.07, indicating a downside of 23% from the current price [5] - **NAV Estimate**: Rmb7.24/share, with a 30% discount applied based on a developers' scorecard [11] Risks - **Upside Risks**: Potential for stronger-than-expected contract sales and successful monetization of business diversification [14] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker-than-expected financial results and contract sales [14] Additional Insights - **Asset Impairment**: Increased to Rmb5.1 billion, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the property market [8] - **High Completed Inventory**: Remains at Rmb117 billion, which is 48% of 2024 pre-sales, indicating potential liquidity issues [8] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, challenges, and outlook for China Vanke Company Ltd. as discussed in the conference call.

Summary of China Vanke's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Vanke (000002.SZ, 2202.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development Key Financial Highlights 1. **1H25 Financial Performance**: - Reported net losses of Rmb11.9 billion, aligning with the lower end of the estimated loss range of Rmb10 billion to Rmb12 billion [1] - Revenue decreased by 26% year-over-year to Rmb104 billion, with property development revenue down 32% year-over-year to Rmb84 billion [12][1] - Gross margin improved to 10% in 2Q25, up 9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, marking the highest level since 4Q23 [7][1] 2. **Impairment Charges**: - Total impairment charges amounted to Rmb5.4 billion, impacting the net loss significantly [1][8] - The company anticipates continued impairment recognition, with expected charges of Rmb3 billion in 2H25E and Rmb1 billion in 2026E-27E [2] 3. **Liquidity Situation**: - Secured over Rmb49 billion in financing year-to-date, including Rmb25 billion from external sources and Rmb24 billion in shareholder loans [6][4] - Debt structure improved slightly, with short-term maturities reduced to 43% of total debt [6][1] 4. **Future Projections**: - Forecasting net losses of Rmb18.4 billion, Rmb9.9 billion, and Rmb9.7 billion for 2025E-27E [2] - Contract sales estimate for 2025E is Rmb139 billion, reflecting a 44% year-over-year decline [10] Market Position and Valuation 1. **Valuation Metrics**: - Vanke A and H shares are trading at discounts of 2% and 29% to end-2025E NAV, respectively [3] - Target prices remain unchanged at Rmb6.0 for Vanke A and HK$4.7 for Vanke H, indicating an 8% downside [3][19] 2. **Market Performance**: - Property sales in 7M25 declined by 44% year-over-year, underperforming the average market decline of 18% [10] Strategic Outlook 1. **Land Banking**: - Acquired 6 projects in 1H25, totaling Rmb2.5 billion, which accounted for 4% of total contract sales [9] - Reliance on third-party interests increased, with attributable interests in new projects down to 53% [9] 2. **Risks and Challenges**: - Continued pressure on margins and inventory write-downs expected until ASP stabilization occurs [21] - Strenuous liquidity conditions and the need for additional support from major shareholders remain critical [1][21] 3. **Upside Risks**: - Potential government funding support and a stronger-than-expected recovery in higher-tier cities could improve sell-through rates and ASP [15][23] Conclusion - China Vanke is facing significant challenges with liquidity, profitability, and market performance, leading to a "Sell" rating. The company’s future hinges on effective management of impairments, liquidity support, and market recovery dynamics.

Company Situation - Chinese property giant Evergrande 将被退市 [1] - Evergrande 在经历惊人的衰落后将面临退市 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Real Estate Equities** sector, particularly the implications of **mandatory convertible bonds (MCB)** on distressed developers [1][2]. Core Insights - **Debt Restructuring Risks**: Despite some progress in debt restructuring for distressed developers, there are significant risks associated with MCBs, particularly regarding share dilution and its impact on share prices. This is crucial for investors seeking beta opportunities [2][3]. - **Sunac Case Study**: The share price of **Sunac** was initially supported by debt restructuring progress but faced substantial pressure post-MCB conversion, with an estimated share increase of **75-114%** upon conversion leading to considerable downside risks [3][10]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a rising risk appetite among investors, as evidenced by the resilience of stocks like **Greentown** and **C&D** following profit alerts and share placements. Mid-cap developers are viewed as having better risk-reward profiles due to stronger fundamentals [4]. Stock Preferences - **Preferred Stocks**: **CR Land** and **C&D International** are rated as "Buy" due to their strong execution capabilities and potential for alpha generation. Both companies have seen **36-44%** year-to-date share price gains, with expectations for further catalysts such as margin recovery and new land acquisitions [5][8]. - **Market Conditions**: Disappointing national data is expected to have a lesser impact on the share prices of these preferred stocks compared to risks such as lower-than-expected sales and prices of high-end projects, cooling land markets, and macroeconomic concerns [5]. Additional Considerations - **Valuation and Risks**: The report outlines the valuation methodologies for CR Land and C&D, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sales momentum and managing margin expectations. Risks include potential slowdowns in land acquisition and sales deterioration [23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the broader market dynamics affecting the real estate sector, including the impact of MCBs on share capital and the overall sentiment towards distressed developers [8][12]. Conclusion - The analysis underscores the complexities within the China real estate sector, particularly the implications of MCBs on share dilution and investor sentiment. The focus on specific stocks like CR Land and C&D reflects a strategic approach to navigating potential investment opportunities amidst ongoing market challenges [2][5][8].

China is preparing to mobilize centrally owned state enterprises to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers https://t.co/QUXoMdzC35 ...