Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue driven by a recovery in new home transactions and the development of rental services, despite a slight decline in profitability metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's GTV transaction volume reached 843.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with revenue of 23.3 billion, up 42% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.39 billion, flat year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [1]. - Gross margin was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability levels [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The company's existing home transaction volume was 580.3 billion in Q1 2025, up 28% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment at 6.9 billion, a 20% increase [2]. - The new home business outperformed the market, with a transaction volume of 232.2 billion, up 53% year-on-year, and revenue of 8.1 billion, a 64% increase [2]. - The rental services segment saw revenue of 5.1 billion, a remarkable 94% increase year-on-year, although it had a lower contribution margin of 6.7% [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth - The company expanded its store count to 57,000, a 29% increase year-on-year, and the number of agents reached 550,000, up 24% [2]. - The market share for new homes increased to 12.6%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong competitive positioning [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory in new business segments, with home decoration and rental services showing promising revenue growth [3].

Group 1: Policy Logic - The central bank's recent LPR rate cut aims to activate liquidity in the real estate market, with first-home loan rates dropping below 3.05% in major cities, and a policy to adjust existing loan rates to LPR-30BP, providing dual stimulus for both new and existing loans [1][2] - The rate cut is also intended to counter deflationary expectations, with CPI at only 0.8% in April 2025, and is expected to boost manufacturing loan growth to 12% in 2025 from 9.3% in 2024 [1][3] - The reduction in interest rates on local government special bonds linked to the 5-year LPR will save over 9 billion yuan in interest payments for 3.8 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2025, alleviating refinancing pressure on urban investment platforms [2] Group 2: Wealth Migration - The reduction in monthly mortgage payments is expected to trigger a consumption chain reaction, with a 1% decrease in mortgage payments leading to a 0.4%-0.6% increase in discretionary spending, translating to an estimated annual consumption increase of 12 billion yuan [5] - For banks, the 10 basis point drop in the 5-year LPR will compress net interest margins by approximately 2.3 basis points, with some regional banks potentially falling below the regulatory warning line of 1.5% [6] Group 3: Industry Transmission - Three sectors are poised for structural opportunities: real estate services benefiting from lower mortgage costs, durable consumer goods seeing increased demand for appliances and vehicles, and high-debt enterprises experiencing reduced financing costs [7][8] - The real estate service chain is expected to accelerate the circulation of second-hand homes, while companies like Beike and Dongfang Yuhong may benefit from increased renovation demand [7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Defensive investments include high-dividend bank stocks and utilities, while offensive sectors include consumer electronics and smart home products [9] - Risk hedging strategies involve investing in gold ETFs and dollar deposits, with some banks offering 5% interest on one-year deposits [9]

贝壳不仅保持住了逆势中的经营韧性，同时还延续了高势能成长。 作者：七佰 随着政策效应持续释放，房地产市场逐步迈入"止跌回稳"的新阶段，贝壳也在此背景下交出了一份超出市场预期的成绩单。 5月15日，科技驱动的一站式新居住服务平台贝壳控股有限公司（纽交所代号：BEKE、港交所代号：02423，以下简称"贝壳"）公布截至2025年3月31日止第 一季度业绩。 报告期内，贝壳实现净收入233亿元，同比增长42.4%，净利润8.55亿元，经调整净利润为13.93亿元。 尤其在非房产交易服务业务方面，一季度收入占比攀升至35.9%，同比增长46.2%，"一体三翼"战略效益持续显现。 历经数年房地产行业深度调整周期，贝壳凭借其坚定的战略定力与"一体三翼"战略的高效落地证明了其经营韧性，如今羽翼渐丰，即将进入云开月明的全新 周期。 核心业务愈发稳健 人效、店效表现改善 作为国民经济的重要支柱，房地产行业的兴衰与国家政策息息相关。过去数年，房地产政策核心目标是防止房价过快上涨，抑制投机性购房行为，稳定市场 秩序。 随着市场形势的变化，当前房地产政策已发生了重大转变，其核心目标转变为促进房地产市场止跌回稳。2024年9月26日中 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 优于大市 一季度营收同比增长 42%，经调整净利润同比持平 Q1 营收同比增长 42%，主要受益于新房交易回暖和房屋租赁服务业务发展。 2025 年 Q1，公司 GTV 交易总额 8437 亿元，同比+34%；营业收入 233 亿元， 同比+42%，其中，新房业务收入占比为 35%，同比提升 5pct，房屋租赁服务 业务收入占比为 22%，同比提升 6pct。 公司盈利水平略下滑。2025 年 Q1，公司实现经调整归母净利润 13.9 亿元， 同比持平；经调整归母净利率 6.0%，同比下降 2.5pct；毛利率 20.7%，同比 下降 4.5pct；贡献利润率 26.1%，同比下降 5.6pct。盈利水平出现下滑，一 方面是存量房业务收入占比下降且贡献利润率下降，另一方面发展较快的房 屋租赁服务业务贡献利润率较低，预期未来几个季度将逐渐改善。此外，公 司有效控制运营成本，销售、管理、研发费率同比显著降低。 存量房业务货币化率和贡献利润率有所降低。2025 年 Q1，公司存量房交易 总额为 5803 亿元，同比+28%；存量房业务收入 69 ...

Core Insights - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy continues to show effectiveness, with solid performance in Q1 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached 843.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34% [2] - Net revenue was 23.3 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit stood at 855 million yuan, with adjusted net profit at 1.393 billion yuan [1][2] - Existing home business net revenue grew by 20% to 6.9 billion yuan, while new home business net revenue surged by 64.2% to 8.1 billion yuan [2] - Non-real estate transaction service revenue increased by 46.2%, accounting for 35.9% of total net revenue [2] Business Segments - Home decoration and furnishing revenue reached 2.9 billion yuan, a 22.3% increase, with a profit margin of 32.6%, up 2 percentage points [2] - Rental service revenue grew by 93.8% to 5.1 billion yuan, supported by an increase in managed properties [2] - Managed properties exceeded 500,000, with "Worry-Free Rental" managing over 490,000 units [2] Innovation and Technology - Beike is actively integrating AI technology across its services, enhancing long-term development [4] - The AI housing assistant "Pudding" has been launched in 10 cities to assist users in the home-buying process [4] - The "Client" assistant for agents has been used by over 200,000 agents, improving client maintenance and transaction rates [5] Research and Development - R&D expenses increased from 467 million yuan in Q1 2024 to 584 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 24.9% rise [4][5] - The company plans to continue investing in AI applications, indicating sustained growth in R&D spending [5] - As of March 31, 2025, Beike's cash and cash equivalents totaled 54.8 billion yuan [5]

英国5月Rightmove平均房屋要价指数同比 1.2%，前值 1.3%。 ...

2025 年 05 月 16 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：杭州临平区崇贤新城推出首宗 不限房价地块 子行业评级 | 和运营 | | | --- | --- | | 房 地 产 开 发 房地产服务 | 无评级 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250515）：联 发集团26.05亿元竞得南京雨花台区 宅地>>--2025-05-15 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250514）：深 铁集团拟向万科提供借款>>--2025- 05-14 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250513）：杭 州 3 宗涉宅地块收金 25.73 亿元>>-- 2025-05-13 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8 ...

证券研究报告 贝壳 (BEKE US) 1Q 新房收入大超预期，经纪人提效显著 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 16 日│美国 | 互联网 | 贝壳 1Q 业绩：营收同比增长 42%至 233 亿元，高于 VA 一致预期 4%（下 同）。1Q 经纪业务人均单量增长显著，存量房人均 GTV 同比提升超 9%。 分业务看，存量房、新房、家装、租赁的营收同比分别增长 20%、64%、 22%、64%。毛利率同比下降 4.5pct 至 20.7%，主系固定薪酬成本同比增 加 6 亿。得益于管理费用改善，经调整净利润同比上涨 0.1%至 14 亿。展 望 2Q，我们预期家装业务或首次实现利润打平，存量房和新房 GTV 同比 增速 12%和 25%。贝壳 24 年经纪人数量同比提升 17%，导致固定成本上 涨。我们预期伴随着 25 年 GTV 加速增长，经纪人效率与三费占比将持续 优化，推动公司净利润率实现逐季度提升；近期推出的 AI 系列工具亦有望 改善各业务效率。我们上调目标价至 27.02 美元，维持"买入"评级。 1Q ...

5月15日美股盘前，贝壳（BEKE.US）（02423.HK）公布了2025年第一季度的财报，表现超市场预期。 财报显示，今年一季度，贝壳实现总交易额8437亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长34%；总收入为233 亿元，同比增加42.4%。 这主要得益于存量房与新房业务的强劲表现，以及非房产交易服务（家装、租赁等）的快速扩张。 具体来看，贝壳存量房业务交易额5803亿元，同比增长28.1%，净收入为69亿元，同比增长20.0%；新 房业务交易额达2322亿元，同比增长53.0%，净收入达81亿元，同比增长64.2%。 非房产交易服务方面，一季度净收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达35.9%。 其中，房屋租赁服务一季度净收入达51亿元，同比增长93.8%，主要由于省心租模式下的租赁房源数目 增加。此外，家装家居的净收入29亿元，同比增长22.3%；新兴业务及其他收入则同比下滑50%，至3.5 亿元。 贝壳指出，2025年4月，贝壳二手房交易额同比增长10-15%；5月到目前为止增长百分之十几；由于 2024年的高基数，预计6月同比将下降。考虑到贸易关税的不确定影响，预计2025年第二季度的二手房 交易额同 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 5月15日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.38%，标普500指数期货跌0.49%，纳指期货跌 0.61%。 | = US 30 | 41,889.50 | 42,022.50 | 41,760.50 | -161.60 | -0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 5,863.90 | 5,884.40 | 5,847.50 | -28.70 | -0.49% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 21,189.80 | 21,330.00 | 21,111.40 | -129.40 | -0.61% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.04%，英国富时100指数涨0.23%，法国CAC40指数跌0.20%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.36%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,512.05 | 23,547.26 | 23,339.00 | +8.85 | +0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | 8, ...